高盛2010年保险

2009年 11月 20日 中国：保险：寿险 高华证券投资研究 1 2009年 11月 20日 中国：保险：寿险 基本面乐观，估值处于周期中值；看好平安（摘要） 平安/中国人寿当前估值持平于或高于周期中值 中国人寿 H股的一年预期股价/内含价值和新业务倍数显著高于历史均值，平安 H 股的一年预期股价/内含价值和新业务倍数持平于历史均值。 仍对行业基本面和短期行业推动因素持乐观看法 我们仍然看好中国寿险行业的基本面，因为短期内存在下列行业推动因素：(1) 通 胀预期导致债券收益率上升；(2) 我们的全球经济、商品和策略研究团队对直到 2010年年底之前的 A股回报持乐观看法；(3) 税延型企业养老保险可能会在上海 推出试点；(4) 政府可能会进一步放开投资管制，允许保险公司参与私募股权投资 和房地产投资（仍取决于房地产市场政策）。 税延型企业养老保险的潜在推出对于新业务价值的影响 我们认为，短期内中国可能会在上海率先推出税延型企业养老保险，然后在全国 范围内实行。如果我们假设中国人寿/平安此项业务的市场份额与其团体寿险业务 的市场份额相当，那么我们认为这两家保险公司均会显著受益，尤其是中国人 寿，因其市场份额较高（2008年为 43%，平安为 14%）而且新业务利润率相对 较低。我们估算，按照此项业务的利润率为 4%的“较差假设”，中国人寿和平 安的新业务价值可能会分别提升 4.8%和 2.5%。 下调预测；将基于股价/内含价值的 12个月目标价格延展至 2010年 2009年三季度业绩公布后，我们小幅下调了平安和中国人寿的 2009-2011年每 股内含价值预测并下调了盈利预测，以体现下列因素：(1) 由于投资回报率上升， 保险给付和赔付支出增加（尤其是分红型产品）；(2) 在收益率曲线走强的背景 下，持有至到期债券的盯市计算将对内含价值产生负面影响。我们将目标价格预 测延展至 2010年，并将基于股价/内含价值的 12个月目标价格上调了 11%- 18%。 平安(H/A)是我们的首选股 相对于中国人寿(H/A，中性)，我们仍更看好平安(H/A，买入，A股位于强力买入 名单)，因为：(1) 平安(H/A)的 2010年预期新业务倍数为 20倍/19倍，而中国人 寿(H/A)为 26倍/24倍；(2) 平安的盈利/内含价值对于投资回报率的上升更加敏 感；(3) 平安资本充足，在管理保费增长、投资和信托/证券业务方面拥有出色的 执行能力。风险：GDP增长、债券收益率和 A股表现弱于预期。 *全文翻译将随后提供 目标价格调整 12-month Price Stock Price target Potential target rating New Old upside change H-share insurers (HK$) China Life (H) Neutral 41.0 36.0 5% 14% Ping An (H) Buy 85.0 76.4 17% 11% A-share insurers (Rmb) China Life (A) Neutral 40.0 34.0 26% 18% Ping An (A) Buy* 81.0 73.2 32% 11% * 该股位于我们的亚太强力买入名单。 资料来源：高盛研究预测 每股盈利和每股内含价值预测变动 2009E 2010E 2011E New Old New Old New Old EPS (Rmb) China Life 1.18 1.28 1.34 1.67 1.67 2.25 Ping An 1.72 2.16 2.24 3.44 2.68 4.18 EVPS (Rmb) China Life 10.32 11.54 12.42 13.24 14.60 15.06 Ping An 21.07 22.20 25.17 25.76 29.76 29.77 资料来源：高盛研究预测 相关研究 中国：保险：潜在的养老保险延迟纳税是长期利好，2009年 4月 1日 高华证券感谢高盛师马宁和孙梦曦在本报告中 的贡献。 徐然, CFA +86(10)6627-3192 | richard.xu@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司 北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与本研究报告所分析的企业存在业 务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能 存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯 一因素。有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析 师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。 北京高华证券有限责任公司 投资研究 November 20, 2009 China: Insurance: Life Gao Hua Securities Investment Research 1 November 20, 2009 China: Insurance: Life Fundamentals positive, mid-cycle valuations; prefer Ping An Ping An/China Life at or above mid-cycle valuation now China Life (H) is trading well above and Ping An (H) is trading in line with their historical average one-year forward P/EV and NBM multiples. Still postive on sector fundamentals and n-t sector catalysts We are still fundamentally positive on the China life insurance sector, given near-term sector catalysts: (1) rising bond yields on expectations of inflation; (2) our Global ECS Research team’s positive view on A-share returns through 2010E; (3) potential introduction of tax deferrable corporate annuity starting in Shanghai; and (4) potential further investment liberalization to allow insurers to invest in private equity and property (subject to debate on property market policies). NBV impact from potential tax deferrable corporate annuity We believe it is likely in the near term that China will introduce a tax deferrable corporate pension scheme in Shanghai first, and roll it out nationally thereafter. If we assume China Life/Ping An have similar market share to that of their group life businesses, we think both insurers will benefit meaningfully, in particular for China Life given its higher market share (43% vs. 14% for Ping An in 2008), and relatively lower new business margin. We estimate China Life could see 4.8% NBV accretion vs. 2.5% for Ping An, if we assume a “low case” of 4% margin for this business. Cutting estimates; rolling over P/EV-based target prices to 2010E Post their 3Q09 results, we modestly reduced Ping An and China Life’s 2009E-11E EVPS and trimmed their earnings estimates to reflect: (1) more policyholders’ benefits payout especially on participating products due to rising investment returns; and (2) negative MTM effects on hold-to-maturity bonds in the EV amid yield curve strengthening. We have raised our 12- month P/EV-based target prices by 11%-18%, as we roll over to 2010E. Ping An (H/A) is our top pick We still prefer Ping An (H/A, Buy, A on Conviction list) to China Life (H/A, Neutral), given: (1) Ping An (H/A) is trading at 20X/19X 2010E NBM vs. 26X/24X for China Life (H/A); (2) higher earnings/EV sensitivity to rising investment returns; and (3) solid solvency margin and execution ability on managing premium growth, investment and trust/securities business. Risks: weaker-than-expected GDP, bond yield, A-share performance. TARGET PRICES CHANGES 12-month Price Stock Price target Potential target rating New Old upside change H-share insurers (HK$) China Life (H) Neutral 41.0 36.0 5% 14% Ping An (H) Buy 85.0 76.4 17% 11% A-share insurers (Rmb) China Life (A) Neutral 40.0 34.0 26% 18% Ping An (A) Buy* 81.0 73.2 32% 11% *This stock is on our regional Conviction list. Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. EPS AND EVPS ESTIMATE CHANGES 2009E 2010E 2011E New Old New Old New Old EPS (Rmb) China Life 1.18 1.28 1.34 1.67 1.67 2.25 Ping An 1.72 2.16 2.24 3.44 2.68 4.18 EVPS (Rmb) China Life 10.32 11.54 12.42 13.24 14.60 15.06 Ping An 21.07 22.20 25.17 25.76 29.76 29.77 Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. RELATED RESEARCH China: Insurance: Potential tax benefits for pensions insurance is a long-term positive, April 1, 2009 Gao Hua Securities acknowledges the role of Ning Ma and Mancy Sun of Goldman Sachs in the preparation of this product. Richard Xu, CFA +86(10)6627-3192 | richard.xu@ghsl.cn Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited and its affiliates do and seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification, see the end of the text. Other important disclosures follow the Reg AC certification, or contact your investment representative. Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Investment Research November 20, 2009 China: Insurance: Life Gao Hua Securities Investment Research 2 Table of contents Shares already trading at or above mid-cycle valuations… 2 …however, we are still positive on the sector’s fundamentals 4 Introduction of tax deferrable corporate annuity scheme 5 Earnings and EV revisions 7 Target price revisions 9 We still prefer Ping An 10 Disclosures 14 EXPECTED NEWS FLOW/EVENTS DATE EVENT COMMENT March 2010 FY09 results We expect Ping An and China Life to report strong NBV growth and investment return. 2H09/1H10 Potential launch of tax exempt corporate annuity scheme in Shanghai first. We believe this will provide positive long-term growth potential, assuming the products were to have insurance protection features. 2H09/1H10 Potential detailed regulation to allow insurers to make private equity investments. We believe this will be positive for life insurers’ investment returns longer-term. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of November 18, 2009. Exhibit 1: Ping An (H/A) is trading at a lower NBM than China Life (H/A) Valuation of China Insurers Share Stock price Mkt cap P/EV (X) NBM (X) P/B (X) P/E (X) Div yield EV growth NBV growth ROE Ticker rating Curr 11/18/2009 (USD bn) 2009E 2010E 2011E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2009E 2010E 2010E 2011E 2009E 2010E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2009E 2010E 2011E H-share insurers China Life (H) 2628.HK Neutral HKD 39.05 141.1 3.31 2.75 2.34 35.8 26.5 19.8 4.63 4.10 3.65 28.8 25.5 1.5% 1.8% 22% 20% 35% 23% 21% 17% 17% 19% Ping An (H) 2318.HK Buy HKD 72.75 68.7 3.01 2.52 2.13 26.8 19.5 14.1 4.61 4.11 3.69 36.9 28.3 1.3% 1.5% 26% 19% 36% 24% 21% 14% 15% 16% PICC (H) 2328.HK Neutral HKD 5.95 8.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.07 1.84 1.62 17.2 14.0 1.0% 1.2% N/A N/A N/A N/A 14% 13% 14% A-share insurers China Life (A) 601628.SS Neutral Rmb 31.73 128.1 3.07 2.55 2.17 32.2 23.6 17.3 4.30 3.81 3.39 26.8 23.7 1.7% 2.0% 22% 20% 35% 23% 21% 17% 17% 19% Ping An (A) 601318.SS Buy* Rmb 61.36 65.1 2.91 2.44 2.06 25.5 18.5 13.3 4.46 3.97 3.57 35.7 27.3 1.3% 1.5% 26% 19% 36% 24% 21% 14% 15% 16% *This stock is on our regional Conviction list. For important disclosures, please go to http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Shares already trading at or above mid-cycle valuations… Ping An’s and China Life’s 2010E P/EV and NBM have already reached or exceeded mid-cycle valuation, reflecting their structural long-term growth outlook and rising investment return in 2009E/2010E: • Ping An (H) is trading at 2.5X 2010E EVPS and 19.5X NBM vs. historical average 1- year forward P/EV of 2.4X and NBM of 19.0X (Exhibits 2 and 3). • China Life (H) is trading at 2.7X 2010E EVPS and 26.5X NBM vs. historical average 1-year forward P/EV of 2.2X and NBM of 20.5X (Exhibits 2 and 3). November 20, 2009 China: Insurance: Life Gao Hua Securities Investment Research 3 Exhibit 2: China Life and Ping An are trading above mid-cycle 1-year forward P/EV Historical 1-year forward P/EV of China insurers 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 D ec -0 3 M ar -0 4 Ju n- 04 Se p- 04 D ec -0 4 M ar -0 5 Ju n- 05 Se p- 05 D ec -0 5 M ar -0 6 Ju n- 06 Se p- 06 D ec -0 6 M ar -0 7 Ju n- 07 Se p- 07 D ec -0 7 M ar -0 8 Ju n- 08 Se p- 08 D ec -0 8 M ar -0 9 Ju n- 09 Se p- 09 1-year forward P/EV (X) China Life (H) Ping An (H) Historical average P/EV China Life: 2.2X Ping An: 2.4X Historical minimum P/EV China Life: 1.1X Ping An: 1.1X \ Source: Company data, CEIC, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Exhibit 3: China Life and Ping An are trading above mid-cycle 1-year forward NBM Historical 1-year forward new business multiple of insurers 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 D ec -0 3 M ar -0 4 Ju n- 04 Se p- 04 D ec -0 4 M ar -0 5 Ju n- 05 Se p- 05 D ec -0 5 M ar -0 6 Ju n- 06 Se p- 06 D ec -0 6 M ar -0 7 Ju n- 07 Se p- 07 D ec -0 7 M ar -0 8 Ju n- 08 Se p- 08 D ec -0 8 M ar -0 9 Ju n- 09 Se p- 09 New Business multiple (X) China Life (H) Ping An (H) Historical average NB multiple China Life: 20.5X Ping An: 19.0X Historical minimum NB multiple China Life: 1.0X Ping An: 0.7X Source: Company data, CEIC, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. November 20, 2009 China: Insurance: Life Gao Hua Securities Investment Research 4 …however, we are still positive on the sector’s fundamentals However, we continue to be positive on the sector fundamentals, and recommend buying Ping An and adding to existing China Life positions on share price weakness, given the following near-term sector catalysts: • Rising bond yields on expectations of CPI/inflation. Our Economics team forecasts 2010E CPI of 2.6% from -0.9% in 2009E. • Our continued positive view on A-share investment return as our Global ECS Research team forecasts CSI300 to reach 4,300 by the end of 2010, a 19% potential return. • We believe there could be positive sector catalysts in the next 12 months, including: 1) potential introduction of tax deferrable corporate annuity, starting in Shanghai; and 2) potential further investment liberalization to allow insurers to invest into private equity and commercial property. Introduction of tax deferrable corporate annuity scheme Quantifying the NBV impact from the potential introduction of a tax deferrable corporate annuity scheme: modestly more positive for China Life, assuming current group life market share As we mentioned in our report published earlier this year (China Insurance: Potential tax benefits for pensions insurance is long-term positive, April 1, 2009), we believe the Chinese government will likely roll out a tax deferral corporate pension pilot scheme in Shanghai in the near term, and expand nationally thereafter, to further improve the social welfare system and stimulate domestic consumption. While the details are still to be worked out, we believe the program may consist of the following features: • A tax deferral feature, similar to the 401(K) scheme in the US. However, we believe that a cap on deferrable annuity month will be imposed, possibly around Rmb500 per person per month, given the current tax revenue constraints. • Products: Likely nationwide standardized products that will be proposed by regulators, such as participating or universal products with insurance protection feature, rather than pure savings or investment products. • As such, we believe the business margin will be higher than bancassurance products, but lower than current individual life products. We believe a successful build-out of this business will require insurers to have a strong marketing and corporate client relationship, actuarial services, IT/account support and investment capabilities. Our initial assessment of the potential impact on new business value (NBV) If the new scheme is implemented, and if we assume each life insurer has a market share in this business that is similar to that of their group life insurance business, we estimate China Life could modestly benefit more than Ping An: (1) China Life’s group life market share is 43% in 2008 vs. 13.7% for Ping An (Exhibit 4); and November 20, 2009 China: Insurance: Life Gao Hua Securities Investment Research 5 (2) China Life had a lower new business margin compared to Ping An as measured by new business value/annualized premium equivalent (APE) (e.g. 26.3% for China Life vs. 38.2% for Ping An in 2008), so the marginal effect of a tax deferrable pension scheme would be larger. Exhibit 4: China Life’s group life insurance premium market share was 43.0% in 2008, versus Ping An’s 13.7% Group life insurance premium market share comparison China Life Ping An Group insurance premium market share in 2008 Life 43.8% 12.2% – Traditional 10.6% 72.9% – Participating 53.2% 7.7% – Universal 0.0% 0.0% – Unit-linked 6.1% 0.0% Health 28.6% 28.1% Accident 43.0% 18.2% Total 43.0% 13.7% Group insurance premium market share in 2007 Life 33.3% 7.9% – Traditional 17.1% 30.9% – Participating 36.0% 5.9% – Others 0.0% 43.5% Health 23.4% 23.6% Accident 32.7% 11.5% Total 32.9% 9.4% Source: Company data. If we assume the new scheme launches in Shanghai in 2010E, and is gradually rolled out nationally thereafter, with gradual increase in penetration, we estimate the NBV accretion and impact on valuation would be modestly higher for China Life than Ping An (note we have not factored in this business into our base case model and valuation). • In the “low case” scenario, where we assume that the business margin of a typical tax deferrable pension product would be 4% (vs. our estimate of around 2%-3% for bancassurance products, 30%+ for individual life products), we estimate that the new scheme could add 4.8% in new business value for China Life, vs. 2.5% for Ping An (Exhibit 5). • In the “higher case” scenario where we set the margin of the tax deferrable pension product at 10% (or c. 1/3 of the margin for an average individual life product), the new scheme could generate 11.9% more of current new business value for China Life vs. 6.3% for Ping An. November 20, 2009 China: Insurance: Life Gao Hua Securities Investment Research 6 Exhibit 5: We estimate the impact on NBV from a potential tax deferrable corporate annuity scheme, using current group life insurance market shares in our scenario analysis: China Life could benefit more than Ping An, in our view (Rmb mn) Shanghai market 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E No. of employees (mn) 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 Maximum annual tax deductable amount 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,001 6,002 6,003 6,004 6,005 6,006 6,007 6,008 % contributed to corporate annuity 50.0% 90.0% 90.0% 90.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% 95.0% Total corporate pension pool (Rmb mn) - 11,018 19,832 19,832 19,832 20,934 20,934 20,934 20,937 20,941 20,944 20,948 20,951 20,955 20,958 20,962 National markets 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E No. of employees (mn) 120.8 120.8 120.8 120.8 120.8 120.8 120.8 120.8 120.8 120.8 120.8 120.8 120.8 120.8 120.8 120.8 Maximum annual tax deductable amount 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 % contributed to corporate annuity 2.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% 70.0% 75.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% Total corporate pension pool (Rmb mn) - 14,493 72,467 108,701 144,934 217,401 289,868 362,335 398,569 434,802 471,036 507,269 543,503 579,736 579,736 579,736 Ping An Market share 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 13.7% 1) low case EV generated by annuity - 79 397 596 794 1,191 1,588 1,986 2,184 2,383 2,581 2,780 2,978 3,177 3,177 3,177 Margin 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% As % of NBV in the year 0.6% 2.3% 3.1% 3.7% 5.0% 6.0% 6.7% 6.7% 6.6% 6.4% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 5.2% 4.7% Total NPV per share from new annuity products (Rmb) 1.64 As % of valuation for H-shares 2.5% As % of valuation for A-shares 2.0% 2) Higher case EV generated by annuity - 199 993 1,489 1,986 2,978 3,971 4,964 5,460 5,957 6,453 6,950 7,446 7,942 7,942 7,942 Margin 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% As % of NBV in the year 1.4% 5.7% 7.7% 9.2% 12.5% 15.0% 16.9% 16.7% 16.4% 16.0% 15.5% 15.0% 14.4% 13.0% 11.7% Total NPV per share from new annuity products (Rmb) 4.09 As % of valuation for H-shares 6.3% As % of valuation for A-shares 5.0% China Life Market share 43% 43% 43% 43% 43% 43% 43% 43% 43% 43% 43% 43% 43% 43% 43% 43% 1) low case EV generated by annuity - 249 1,246 1,870 2,493 3,739 4,986 6,232 6,855 7,479 8,102 8,725 9,348 9,971 9,971 9,971 Margin 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% As % of NBV in the year 1.1% 4.5% 6.0% 7.2% 9.8% 11.8% 13.2% 13.1% 12.9% 12.6% 12.2% 11.8% 11.3% 10.2% 9.2% Total NPV per share from new annuity products (Rmb) 1.49 As % of valuation for H-shares 4.8% As % of valuation for A-shares 3.8% 2) Higher case EV generated by annuity - 623 3,116 4,674 6,232 9,348 12,464 15,580 17,138 18,696 20,255 21,813 23,371 24,929 24,929 24,929 Margin 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% As % of NBV in the year 2.7% 11.2% 15.1% 18.1% 24.5% 29.4% 33.1% 32.8% 32.2% 31.5% 30.5% 29.5% 28.3% 25.5% 23.0% Total NPV per share from new annuity products (Rmb) 3.73 As % of valuation for H-shares 11.9% As % of valuation for A-shares 9.4% Source: CEIC, Company data, Yearbook of China’s Insurance, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Earnings and EV revisions We revised our ea