铜市场展望

全球铜市场展望 CRU客户研讨会 2011.12.15 北京北京 • 2012供应缓慢增长 •宏观阴霾下消费谨慎乐观 •市场信心改善，供应缺口仍然存在，铜价将走高 全球铜供应 ‘000t of contained copper by main stages, in 2011 CRU forecast Source: CRU 2011年铜矿产量受到劳资纠纷以及矿石品位下降影响 Likelihood of major copper mine disruptions Ore grade problemsOre grade problemsLabourLabour • Ore grades fell globally q-o-q. • South America experienced the greatest decline in ore grades in the past 5 years. • Ore grades fell globally q-o-q. • South America experienced the greatest decline in ore grades in the past 5 years. gg • Ongoing strikes at the Grasberg and Cerro Verde mine. • 14-day strike at Escondida in August. Gro ing nrest amongst orkers at Chinese • Ongoing strikes at the Grasberg and Cerro Verde mine. • 14-day strike at Escondida in August. Gro ing nrest amongst orkers at Chinese • Escondida amongst the most affected mines.• Escondida amongst the most affected mines.• Growing unrest amongst workers at Chinese operations in Zambia. • Growing unrest amongst workers at Chinese operations in Zambia. • Changes to mining companies’ royalty• Changes to mining companies’ royalty Governance issuesGovernance issues Mergers & acquisitionsMergers & acquisitions • Changes to mining companies royalty payments in Peru. • Increased mining regulations in Zambia. • Planned audit of mining operations in DR Congo • Changes to mining companies royalty payments in Peru. • Increased mining regulations in Zambia. • Planned audit of mining operations in DR Congo • Continuing strong M&A activity. • Focus on company takeovers. • Continuing strong M&A activity. • Focus on company takeovers. • Power cuts in Chile and Zambia. • Protests over water supply in Peru • Power cuts in Chile and Zambia. • Protests over water supply in Peru InfrastructureInfrastructure • Earthquake in Peru – no disruption. • Some snowfall in Chile minor disruptions • Earthquake in Peru – no disruption. • Some snowfall in Chile minor disruptions Natural HazardsNatural Hazards Congo. Congo. High likelihoodHigh likelihood • Protests over water supply in Peru.• Protests over water supply in Peru. • Some snowfall in Chile – minor disruptions.• Some snowfall in Chile – minor disruptions. Medium likelihoodMedium likelihood Low likelihoodLow likelihood Source: CRU 2季度分区域矿石品位变化 Q2 2010 - Q2 2011 Source: CRU 5年内矿石品位下降比例5年内矿石品位下降比例 Q2 2006 - Q2011 Source: CRU 多数项目新增产量将从2013-2014年开始投产多数项目新增产 将从 年开始投产 Forecast vs potential production from all mine projects, including concentrates and EW cathode ‘000t contained copper Adjustments account for up to 3.1Mt of potential productionpotential production Source: CRU 铜矿产量预期下调幅度高于铜冶炼预期 Revisions to forecasts, July 2011 to October 2011 ‘000t contained copper Source: CRU 新项目投资需要抵消现有铜矿产量下降 forecast output, ‘000t contained copper-in-concentrates and SXEW Source: CRU 中国冶炼产能2014年前将大幅增长，随后平稳 Expected total blister capacity at all smelters, 2011 and 2016, tonnes 1/ Asia except for China, India and Japan Source: CRU 现货TC/RCs 2011上半年打破常规 Average Spot TC/RCs monthly, 2006 – Aug 2011 现货 / 上半年打破常规 ¢/lb payable copper Japan crisis closes Onahama, releasing distressed tonnages onto the market TCRCs typically trend upwards in H2 ¢/lb payable copper onto the market trend upwards in H2 Source: CRU 主要矿商铜精矿供应份额主要矿商铜精矿供应份额 Source: CRU 伴随铜价回落废铜折价收窄伴随铜价回落废铜折价收窄 US, European and Chinese discounts, $/t scrap USAUSA Chi * Europe China* Source: CRU 全铜消费增速将低于IP增速全铜消费增速将低于IP增速 Growth in copper consumption weaker than IP growth due mainly to a decline in scrap generation for use in refined production Source: CRU 由于废铜更多用于冶炼，精铜消费比重将上升由于废铜更多用于冶炼，精铜消费比重将上升 Source: CRU 2010年强劲增长后今年铜材产量增速回落2010年强劲增长后今年铜材产量增速回落 Source: CRU 铜库存接近低位，短期受中国信贷紧张影响难以大幅增加铜库存接近低位 短期受中国信贷紧张影响难以大幅增加 Weeks Source: CRU 中国铜终端消费前景良好终 消费 Source: CRU 由于3季度消费增加转为负值美国铜消费面临危险由于3季度消费增加转为负值美国铜消费面临危险 Source: CRU 巴西铜消费部分受强势雷亚尔影响巴西铜消费部分受强势雷亚尔影响 `000t Source: CRU 西欧3季度铜消费受季节性影响同比增长环比回落西欧3季度铜消费受季节性影响同比增长环比回落 Source: CRU 缓慢恢复的西欧铜线杆产量受欧债影响雪上加霜，影响区 域消费 `000t y-o-y % growth000t y o y % growth Source: CRU 中欧及东欧铜消费持续受到俄罗斯精铜出口关税调整提振中欧及东欧铜消费持续受到俄罗斯精铜出 关税调整提振 Source: CRU 日本铜消费3季度环比持续增长但地震影响仍然存在 Source: CRU 韩国铜材产量受到中国消费放缓的影响韩国铜材产量受到中国消费放缓的影响 Source: CRU 铜/铝比价处于纪录高位铜/铝 价处于纪录高位 Source: CRU 远期价格曲线暗示价格已经接近底部远期价格曲线暗示价格已经接近底部 LME copper forward curve Source: CRU 供应短缺且市场信心改善，价格将走高供应短缺且市场信心改善，价格将走高 LME cash price and global supply/demand balance, 2004-2016 High side bias narrows from 45% more than downside in 2013 to only 10% by 2016 CRU Analysis Copper and Wire & Cable team Vanessa Davidson - Group Manager: Copper, Nickel, Stainless Steel & Special Alloys, ext. 2207 Paul Settles - Principal Consultant, Copper Market, ext. 2227 Christine Meilton - Principal Consultant, Copper Raw Materials, ext. 2298 Vivienne Lloyd - Senior Consultant, Copper Production and Mine Costs, ext. 2182 Sushila Colquhoun - Senior Consultant, Copper Production, ext. 2016 Miljian Sladoje - Research Analyst, Copper Production and Mine Costs, ext. 2062 Alicia Polo y La Borda - Senior Consultant, Copper MarketSantiago +56 2 2313 900, ext. 12 Grace Qu - Consultant, Copper Market, Beijing +86 10 6510 2206, ext. 321 Jon Barnes - Principal Consultant, Copper Semis, Wire & Cable, ext. 2116 Rob Daniels - Principal Consultant, Copper Semis, Wire & Cable, ext. 2118 Rich Mack - Principal Consultant, Copper Semis, Wire & Cable, USA Patrick Fay - Senior Consultant, Copper Semis, Wire & Cable, USA Pi O ki R h A l C 2325Piotr Ortonowski - Research Analyst, Copper, ext. 2325 James Wright - Research Analyst, Copper, ext. 2052 Catherine Mckee - Administrator, Base Metals, ext. 2043 To contact team members:To contact team members: Email: firstname.lastname@crugroup.com, Tel: +44 (0)20 7903 and extension number Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention 曲艺曲艺 CRU 铜业分析师, Beijing grace qu@crugroup comgrace.qu@crugroup.com +86 10 6510 2206-321