透过现象看本质

透过现象看本质 透过现象看本质---近期外汇市场浅析 2010年形容美元走势最形象的比喻就是过山车了,正当你快乐上行、欢欣雀跃时,一下子掉头直下、令人目瞪口呆～投资者有一种过山车后头脑发懵的感觉～在这里我们一起透过现象看本质～回顾外汇市场并研判其未来走势。 一、2010年走势回顾 美元指数图 来源:Bloomberg 2010年外汇市场的主线是欧洲债务危机的变化,～副线就是各国经济数据的影响～受此影响美元指数基本可以分为四个阶段: 第一、 欧债危机的端倪期～美元指数的发力期。 年初希腊开始爆发主权债务危机～其主权评级被连续调降～庞大的财政赤字导致借贷成本大增。欧洲方面的态度始终不明朗导致市场security, reliability and privacy of information; 2.10 labor management: strengthening the management of labor contracts, through effective communication, reduce disputes and handling disputes; 2.11 staffing process accordingly, for employees and the company personnel procedures, protection of personnel working in an orderly manner; seventh section HR job description 1, headquarters Manager 1.1 the Department of human resource management: according to the company's development strategy, submitted to the staffing and human resources cost estimates, for the implementation of "total control and improve quality" measures for corporate human resource needs and labor cost control; 1.2 system: responsible for preparing human resource management systems and organizations, implementation, implementation; 1.3 post management: according to the company's development strategy, and adjusting the organizational structure, functional decomposition, establishment of working instructions, continuously adapt, promote the development of human resources management; 1.4 recruiting: according to sector conditions, through interviews, testing, selecting new employees, in order to meet business needs, attracting outstanding talent; 1.5 training: establishment of 对欧元信心下降。此时美国方面捷报频传～消费者信心指数74.4为2008年以来最高～经理人指数创近三年新高61.5～美国公布的2009年第四季度GDP数据猛增5.7%～大大超过市场预期～增幅为六年来最大～这些数据助长了美元升势。 第二、欧债危机的徘徊期～美元指数的震荡期。 欧洲方面开始意识到局面的困境～希腊的主权违约互换从不到200点飙升至600点左右～10年期债券的利率也升到7%～为德国债的两倍多。三月末希腊发债50亿欧元偿还债务利息～其债券在二级市场遭遇冷销～欧盟和IFM商开始讨如何拯救希腊～并出台了总额为1100亿欧元的救助计划。欧元趁机得到一些喘息机会～但投资者的信心相对脆弱。 第三、欧债危机的高潮期～美元指数的疯狂期。 5月初～希腊危机开始蔓延至西班牙、葡萄牙等其他欧元区国家～欧元崩溃论不合时宜的跳出～投资者对欧元信心全无～欧元遭受抛售。为了防止危机蔓延～欧盟出台了一项总额高达7500亿欧元的救助计划。同时～欧洲央行决定从二级市场购买欧元区成员国政府债券～这套组合拳极大挽救了欧元的跌势。但好景不长～投资者开始担忧欧洲国家严苛的财政紧缩政策会拖累欧元区经济增长～伤及脆弱的经济复苏之路。随着希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙被降级～风险厌恶情绪继续升温～特别是匈牙利“危机”跳入投资者视野～彻底击垮了欧元区的信心～美元指数创出了2010年的最高88.7。 第四、欧债危机的消退期～美元指数的重挫期。 security, reliability and privacy of information; 2.10 labor management: strengthening the management of labor contracts, through effective communication, reduce disputes and handling disputes; 2.11 staffing process accordingly, for employees and the company personnel procedures, protection of personnel working in an orderly manner; seventh section HR job description 1, headquarters Manager 1.1 the Department of human resource management: according to the company's development strategy, submitted to the staffing and human resources cost estimates, for the implementation of "total control and improve quality" measures for corporate human resource needs and labor cost control; 1.2 system: responsible for preparing human resource management systems and organizations, implementation, implementation; 1.3 post management: according to the company's development strategy, and adjusting the organizational structure, functional decomposition, establishment of working instructions, continuously adapt, promote the development of human resources management; 1.4 recruiting: according to sector conditions, through interviews, testing, selecting new employees, in order to meet business needs, attracting outstanding talent; 1.5 training: establishment of 欧元跌至四年新低1.1877之后～已经处于长期均衡价格之下了～在“PIGS”四国债券成功发行的利好消息下迅速反弹。为了维护市场对欧元区的信心～欧洲央行对银行业进行了压力测试～测试结果令人满意。91家银行有7家未能通过压力测试～若未达标的银行的一级资本充足率达到6%～需要注资35亿欧元～远远少于市场预期的300亿欧元。同时～美国方面数据现疲软～7月非农就业人数大幅减少13.1万人～远远高于经济学家预期的6.5万人,伯南克也对美国经济“异常不明朗”～市场担忧美联储可能进一步扩大量化宽松政策～美元在重压之下～一泻千里。 二、透过现象看本质 经济学中强调商品主要是受供求关系关系的影响。当供过于求时～市场价格下降～从而导致供应量减少而需求量增加,当供不应求时～市场价格会上升～从而导致供应量增加而需求量减少。供给和需求相互作用最终会使商品的供应量和需求量在某一价格水平上正好相等～此时的价格就是均衡价格。其实货币也是一种特殊的商品～也受供求关系的影响。如果一种货币的需求加大～则这个货币就会水涨船高～对其他货币的汇价自然就会升值～反之～则会贬值。影响外汇市场供求关系的因素有很多,但基本可以总结为三方面:基本面、政策面、市场情绪～它们亦是彼此影响的。 ,一,基本面分析 2010年前半年欧美经济数据好坏参半～各国经济在去年经济刺计划的影响下逐渐好转。但近期的数据显示美欧经济是冰火两重天～security, reliability and privacy of information; 2.10 labor management: strengthening the management of labor contracts, through effective communication, reduce disputes and handling disputes; 2.11 staffing process accordingly, for employees and the company personnel procedures, protection of personnel working in an orderly manner; seventh section HR job description 1, headquarters Manager 1.1 the Department of human resource management: according to the company's development strategy, submitted to the staffing and human resources cost estimates, for the implementation of "total control and improve quality" measures for corporate human resource needs and labor cost control; 1.2 system: responsible for preparing human resource management systems and organizations, implementation, implementation; 1.3 post management: according to the company's development strategy, and adjusting the organizational structure, functional decomposition, establishment of working instructions, continuously adapt, promote the development of human resources management; 1.4 recruiting: according to sector conditions, through interviews, testing, selecting new employees, in order to meet business needs, attracting outstanding talent; 1.5 training: establishment of 比如美国第一季度GDP的3.7%年化增长率下降到第二季度的2.4%～不如预期的上升2.5%, 7月份非农就业数据为减少13.1万～远逊于预期。但是欧元区 7月制造业采购经理人指数终值56.7～好于预期～该指数已经连续10个月维持在50.0的荣枯分水岭上方。另外欧元区7月景气指数创2年多新高以及欧元区7月调和消费者物价指数(CPI)年率出现2008年11月以来的最快增速。 虽然美国经济陷入二次衰退的危险在增加～但分析师认为欧元区的经济仍将落后美国～根据彭博分析师调查中数～欧元区第2季经济增长率为1.30%～今年全年增长率预估为1.10%～2010 年美国经济增速将达2.7%。分析师认为最近一波欧元反弹走势主要是受到欧洲政府为解决赤字问题大砍支出的激励～但同样的理由不久可能也会变成打击欧洲经济增长、中断欧元涨势的元凶。 黄色线为欧元兑美元走势，白色为欧元两年期国债与美元两年期国债利率差 security, reliability and privacy of information; 2.10 labor management: strengthening the management of labor contracts, through effective communication, reduce disputes and handling disputes; 2.11 staffing process accordingly, for employees and the company personnel procedures, protection of personnel working in an orderly manner; seventh section HR job description 1, headquarters Manager 1.1 the Department of human resource management: according to the company's development strategy, submitted to the staffing and human resources cost estimates, for the implementation of "total control and improve quality" measures for corporate human resource needs and labor cost control; 1.2 system: responsible for preparing human resource management systems and organizations, implementation, implementation; 1.3 post management: according to the company's development strategy, and adjusting the organizational structure, functional decomposition, establishment of working instructions, continuously adapt, promote the development of human resources management; 1.4 recruiting: according to sector conditions, through interviews, testing, selecting new employees, in order to meet business needs, attracting outstanding talent; 1.5 training: establishment of ,二,政策面分析 六月份开始欧元的利率逐渐高于美国的利率～而且利率差不断在扩大～而资本一定是要追逐利润的～所以资本流向欧元区带动了欧元的持续上涨。近日～英国央行和欧洲央行分别维持利率不变～英国央行也未宣布新的量化宽松购买计划。欧洲央行特里谢表示货币政策将全力确保价格的稳定～市场虽然普遍预期欧洲央行2010年前不会加息～但美联储可能会重新讨论新的宽松～若大规模购买抵押贷款债券或美国国债将沉重打击美元。 ,三,市场情绪分析 市场情绪往往是市场波动的放大器～夸大了因为基本面或者政策面造成的市场走势。当某一货币出现大规模变动时～按模型进行的交易令变动加剧～由于所有消息均指向同一个方向～欧元/美元的整体动向变得明显。从图中可以看到～芝加哥期货交易所显示的欧元净头寸从六月初开始迅速增加～上行速度快于欧元走势～截止到目前～欧元净头寸仍然为负的～说明前期做空欧元的头寸还未完全平补回来～短期看欧元仍有上涨动能。从风险扭转价格上看～虽然一直在上升～其与欧元上扬走势较为一致～但目前仍然为负～说明市场对欧元卖权的需求仍高于买权～欧元上行存在一定压力。 security, reliability and privacy of information; 2.10 labor management: strengthening the management of labor contracts, through effective communication, reduce disputes and handling disputes; 2.11 staffing process accordingly, for employees and the company personnel procedures, protection of personnel working in an orderly manner; seventh section HR job description 1, headquarters Manager 1.1 the Department of human resource management: according to the company's development strategy, submitted to the staffing and human resources cost estimates, for the implementation of "total control and improve quality" measures for corporate human resource needs and labor cost control; 1.2 system: responsible for preparing human resource management systems and organizations, implementation, implementation; 1.3 post management: according to the company's development strategy, and adjusting the organizational structure, functional decomposition, establishment of working instructions, continuously adapt, promote the development of human resources management; 1.4 recruiting: according to sector conditions, through interviews, testing, selecting new employees, in order to meet business needs, attracting outstanding talent; 1.5 training: establishment of 黄色为欧元汇率，绿色为芝加哥期货交易所欧元净头寸，红色为风险扭转期权价格。 综合以上分析～从技术指标上看欧元短期仍有上涨动能～特别是美国若实行新的货币宽松政策～欧元、英镑、澳元将再走出一波上涨行情。但从中短期来看～美元汇率的变化存在微笑曲线的规律～在该曲线的不同阶段～美元汇率会呈现不同走势。在曲线的最左端～在全球经济表现很差的时候～由于资金的避险需求增加～对美元的需求随之增加～会导致美元走强。在曲线的最右端～当美国经济表现很好的时候～资金回流国内～以美元为融资货币的套利交易解除时～美元受资金调拨的原因走高。当前美元处于笑脸的左下边～若美国经济萎靡不振而欧洲复苏企稳时～美元将继续走弱～但全球经济若陷入二次衰退中～则股市的下挫将引发投资者解除套利交易抛出欧元、英镑、澳元等货币～作为首选的避险货币美元将受益重新回到笑脸左边。 security, reliability and privacy of information; 2.10 labor management: strengthening the management of labor contracts, through effective communication, reduce disputes and handling disputes; 2.11 staffing process accordingly, for employees and the company personnel procedures, protection of personnel working in an orderly manner; seventh section HR job description 1, headquarters Manager 1.1 the Department of human resource management: according to the company's development strategy, submitted to the staffing and human resources cost estimates, for the implementation of "total control and improve quality" measures for corporate human resource needs and labor cost control; 1.2 system: responsible for preparing human resource management systems and organizations, implementation, implementation; 1.3 post management: according to the company's development strategy, and adjusting the organizational structure, functional decomposition, establishment of working instructions, continuously adapt, promote the development of human resources management; 1.4 recruiting: according to sector conditions, through interviews, testing, selecting new employees, in order to meet business needs, attracting outstanding talent; 1.5 training: establishment of 三、合理运用矛和盾 外汇市场的扰动因素是所有市场中最多的～也是最难把握的～比如两个月前纷纷看欧元到1.1的外资银行转头开始看1.35。近期人民币汇率改革重新启动～日间波幅加大～汇价双边波动明显～企业该规避汇率风险呢, 一方面采用矛主动出击。矛就是跨境贸易人民币结算～它是指以人民币报关并以人民币结算的进出口贸易结算。 首先～有利于企业彻底规避汇率风险。通常企业进出口业务是以美元、欧元和日元等进行计价结算～由此带来人民币汇率风险通常主要由境内企业承担。如果能以人民币进行国际结算～则境内企业可以完全避免承受这类汇率风险～而且企业的成本和收益能够较为清晰的固定下来～有利于企业进行帐务核算。 其次～节省了企业汇兑所引起的汇兑成本和企业进行外币衍生产品交易的有关费用。中国周边国家和地区与中国之间的贸易大都采用美元结算～而其国内又不能进行美元流通。因此结算通常要经过本币—美元—本币的两次兑换～这种情况主要发生在公司的内部交易即子公司与子公司或子公司与母公司的贸易之中。即使是非内部交易～国内出口企业收到美元货款也需要通过银行将美元换成人民币～企业为此会支付一定的费用。采用欧元和日元等货币结算的企业～为了控制汇率风险～必须承担大量的外币衍生品交易的费用～增加了企业的交易成本～消弱了其竞争力。 另一方面采用盾积极防御。盾就是目前市场中各种规避人民币汇security, reliability and privacy of information; 2.10 labor management: strengthening the management of labor contracts, through effective communication, reduce disputes and handling disputes; 2.11 staffing process accordingly, for employees and the company personnel procedures, protection of personnel working in an orderly manner; seventh section HR job description 1, headquarters Manager 1.1 the Department of human resource management: according to the company's development strategy, submitted to the staffing and human resources cost estimates, for the implementation of "total control and improve quality" measures for corporate human resource needs and labor cost control; 1.2 system: responsible for preparing human resource management systems and organizations, implementation, implementation; 1.3 post management: according to the company's development strategy, and adjusting the organizational structure, functional decomposition, establishment of working instructions, continuously adapt, promote the development of human resources management; 1.4 recruiting: according to sector conditions, through interviews, testing, selecting new employees, in order to meet business needs, attracting outstanding talent; 1.5 training: establishment of 率风险的工具～包括常规的远期结售汇、择期结售汇～也包括银行创新的即远通业务和购付宝业务。 “即远通”远期结汇～就是即期询价交易、远期、掉期三种产品的组合。和简单的远期结汇产品相比～该项产品最具个性之处在于～它允许企业在交割日按即期结汇价格和调整的远期价格之间选择～财务人员不再担心到期日即期价格好于远期价格。对客户而言～交割时～若即期市场价格优于调整后的远期基准价格～可按即期价格成交～若即期市场价格劣于“即远通”价格～则以“即远通”价格成交。 “购付宝”业务针对客户贸易项下购汇付款的需求～采取人民币质押方式贷给客户美元以延迟客户付汇时点～客户在远期购汇还款。相对于直接即期购汇～客户可利用较低的成本推迟购汇时间～以享受人民币升值的收益。 security, reliability and privacy of information; 2.10 labor management: strengthening the management of labor contracts, through effective communication, reduce disputes and handling disputes; 2.11 staffing process accordingly, for employees and the company personnel procedures, protection of personnel working in an orderly manner; seventh section HR job description 1, headquarters Manager 1.1 the Department of human resource management: according to the company's development strategy, submitted to the staffing and human resources cost estimates, for the implementation of "total control and improve quality" measures for corporate human resource needs and labor cost control; 1.2 system: responsible for preparing human resource management systems and organizations, implementation, implementation; 1.3 post management: according to the company's development strategy, and adjusting the organizational structure, functional decomposition, establishment of working instructions, continuously adapt, promote the development of human resources management; 1.4 recruiting: according to sector conditions, through interviews, testing, selecting new employees, in order to meet business needs, attracting outstanding talent; 1.5 training: establishment of