垃圾债券信息点

垃圾债券信息点 垃圾债券和信用债信息点 1. 发行和投资 , 经济复苏?投资者风险偏好逐渐恢复?重新青睐垃圾债投资(1.1) , 投机性债券而非投资性，故投资人多为短期考虑(1.1) , 要时刻关注经营状况，要看发展潜力(1.1) , 风险(1.1) , 经济不好时，价格下跌超过利息所得，还面临违约风险; , 高风险与高利率的恶性循环; , 评级机构偏好成熟市场的大企业，在海外发债的国内企业，能够获得投资级的多为国企， 许多优秀的民营企业较难获得高的评级(1.8) , 香港中环资产管理公司(CAI):利用风险评价与实际风险的不对称(1.8) , 安全性:如果企业真的出现清算和债务重组的违约，回收率也在40%(1.8)重资产企 业(如房企)的回收率会更高(1.8) , 时机:在折价时购买 , 美国债券市场，评级由标普和穆迪掌控，评级高的债券，被认为风险小，投资人多，利 息也越低(1.7) , 要对发行人未来商业前景进行极其细致的调查，来说服投资人(1.11) , 成立高收益债券共同基金，解决流动性问题(1.11) , 发行主体(1.13): , 经营性业务融资:发展中前期、经营风险较大(高速发展、缺乏现金流、负 债率高、资本金少)，并非不愿发行投资级债券，而是无法做到; , 杠杆收购(LBO):需求巨大 , 信用等级分布(1.13):B级和BB级为主 , 行业分布(1.13):覆盖广，无线通讯和能源行业占比较高 , 发行规模(1.13):单只规模普遍较小(1-4亿美元)，明显小于投资级单笔规模 and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation , 发行期限(1.13): , 投资主体(1.13):机构占绝大份额，并且随时间推移几乎占有全部 , 发行方式(1.13): , 公开发行:面向公众(机构和个人)，须向SEC注册; , 非公开发行:即私募发行，豁免注册，但对债券发行后的转售做出了禁止或 限制的规定;92年只占1/10, 03年占比达85% , 收益率及违约率(1.13): , 平均收益率明显高于10年期国债收益率:1978-2007年，高收益债券年度平 均算数平均值达到12.09%，而同期国债收益率是7.25%; , 且高收益债组合历史波动率与国债历史波动率相当，但回报更好; , 违约率更易受经济周期影响:90年衰退，违约率由89年的5.8%上升到9.7%， 2000年网络泡沫破灭，01年违约率为11.4%，07年次贷危机，09年为13.5% and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation , 银行间市场(1.13) , 利益相关人:发行人、投资人、管理人、信用评级机构、审计机构、律师、渠道(银行、 第三方)、监管层、平台公司(信托、券商等)、清偿机构 , 吸引游资 , 引入竞价系统——价低者得 , 美国的投资主体为对冲基金和对流动性要求不高的再保险公司等(1.6)，而国内银行和 信托理财账户对此类产品需求很大; , 巴菲特也我有很大的头寸(2.4) , 2. 理论 , 垃圾债定义1:又称劣等债券(投机级债券)，指由信用等级最缺乏吸引力的企业所发 行的债券，具有高风险、高收益的特征。这些企业要么生产状况艰难、要么尚未被市场 验证、要么有大量负债。(1.1) , 定义2:高收益债券是指信用等级低于投资级别的债券，因此又被成为垃圾债券或投机 级债券(1.13) , 中小企业私募债(1.3):非上市中小微企业以非公开方式发行的公司债券 , 高收益债(1.4):发行主体不一定是业绩交差的公司，有些企业把这部分债券权益放在 其它债权之后，另外也有一些优质企业拥有大量债务，但出于战略发展和经营需要而发 行的利率较高的债券 , 垃圾债特点:回报率高，违约风险更高，评级等级在标普和穆迪分别基本处于BB级和 Baa级别以下。(1.1) , 发展条件(1.1) , 产业的发展与重组:产业转型与重组，股市不能满足，银行又较谨慎 , 金融管制的放松:美国金融业受到挑战，当局放松对发行人的审查和管理 , 经济的复苏:经济景气，证券市场繁荣，关心收益甚于风险 , “评级无效”:评级机构的判断有时并不能代企业真实的信用情况，如雷曼兄弟和AIG 直到破产时，信用仍是投资级。所以，无效导致了机会的存在～(1.8) , 债券投资的价值和风险依赖于发行人的还本付息能力(1.7) , 债券回报不与利率挂钩，而是与企业发展相关(1.14) , 与以往看重资产规模相比，更加重视现金流、利润、行业发展前景等(1.5) and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation , 米尔肯理论(1.11) , 市场对风险厌恶过头，从而低估了收益; , 多样化的高收益债券组合，与蓝筹股组合相比，不仅产生更高的收益，而且没 有更大的风险; , 不存在市场的系统风险，因为与企业经营情况挂钩(2.4); , 流动性问题:可以通过更多的投资者参与而解决 , 实践:进行研究，了解发行公司的经营状况，特别是偿债能力，然后决定债券价值，寻 找潜在盈利前景。同时，四处宣传投资思量，说服投资人(1.15) , 经济复苏时，垃圾债券的表现将相当好(2.4) , 战略发展:经营性融资(保荐)?创建高收益债券包销市场?并购融资(银行并不看借 款人拥有多少资产，而是看被兼并对象的资产)(1.15) , 高收益债较银行更能适应市场需求，提供长期固定利率;而银行是短期浮动利率(1.2); , 合格投资者制度:资金实力较强和风险管理水平较高的机构投资人，可以通过资产组合 来控制风险(1.13) , 业务创新(1.2) , 市场实现债券定价 , 培养“高收益债券基金” , 采取银行“集合授信”的方式，企业互保 , 引入中介机构，加强流动性 , 发展基础:拥有大量的投资需求，需要培养投资人(1.13) , 我国现状:成长性中小企业对资金需求强，处于高速发展期，能够承担较高融资成本; 高成长特征对改善信用资质非常有利，由于具备信用跃迁惯性，可以满足投资者获得较 高收益的预期(1.13) , 在市场上，资金永远是一种稀缺资源(1.3)，需要通过一种有效地机制配置 , 确定不同性质企业(股份和有限)的发行门槛，区分高新技术和传统产业的门槛(1.4); , 未来应放宽(1.4): , 个人投资者对低级别债券的投资限制; , 鼓励机构投资者在网下参与一级市场投资; , 逐步引入银行和信托理财产品，RQFII等外资参与二级市场 , 债权投资属于借入资本，如何像股权投资人一样深入影响企业，做到事前和事中控制 (1.9) , 中小企业债券融资成本(1.9) , 各种融资按来源划分其融资成本由低到高排序为:财政融资、商业融资、内 部融资、银行融资、债券融资、股权融资; , 承销费用:因净资产比率限制，决定其发行规模不会超过1亿元，券商一般 不感兴趣，比率会订在2.5%; , 审计费用、律师费用:审计15万左右，律师10万左右，且一经发现问题， 立即停止; , 评级费用:25万元 , 增信措施:担保(2%)、土地抵押、股权质押、应收账款质押(存在特殊性) 产生的评估费; , 后期的审计、跟踪评估、跟踪评级、投资者会议等 , 估算垃圾债券组合的潜在收益率，需要了解违约率和违约损失率(2.3) , 米尔肯对霍华德.马克思说过:如果你买入3A级债券，结果只有一种，就是只会下跌，and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation 不可能变得更好;如果你买入B级债券并最终没有违约，结果可能给你带来更高回报 的惊喜(2.6) , 霍华德.马克思:如果你想成为一个成功的高收益债投资者，就要像打网球比赛成为冠 军一样，不需要扣球，不输球就行了(2.6) , 霍华德.马克思:投资于陷入困境公司的债务，希望部分债券持有人最终以低价控股这 些公司;不把决策建立在宏观经济预测上(2.6) , 霍华德.马克思:高收益债券不可避免地出现违约，在此情况下，投资高收益债券需要 特别关注发行人的资信水平。只有为发行人提供良好的融资渠道，才是一个健康的债券 市场(2.6) 3. 历史 , 产生于上世纪20-30年代的美国; , 50-60年代被一些中小企业用做融资之用，由于实力弱、信用低，通常付出高利息; , 70年代早期，95%的美国公司因达不到投资级别而被排斥在公司债市场之外; , 77年，垃圾债仅占公司债的3.7%; , 70年，开始受到投资者狂热追求，发行量不断增大，却时常供不应求，价格节节攀升; , 84-85年，发行量占总量的22%; , 80年代，达到鼎盛时期，德崇为代表; , 88年，随着质量下降、股市崩盘，违约屡有发生，垃圾债逐步走向衰落，持续到1992 年，1991年违约率达到10.27%; , 93年逐步复苏，发展稳定;为杠杆收购发债规模仅占4%，为经营资本和债务再融资而 发行的占76%; , 信用违约互换(CDS)和债券抵押债务凭证(CBO)促进了市场的发展; , 违约率:84年-0.84%,87年-5.78%，90&91年-超过10%，2009年-美国13%、欧洲10% , 受到并购大亨的青睐，一个小公司，可以依靠垃圾债券进行杠杆收购; , 2009年，全球发行2578亿美元(1.14); 4. 米尔肯 , 我只是想要多一点时间做我想做的事(1.7) , 生在加州中产阶级之家，从小对数字感兴趣，心算能力惊人(1.15) , 加州伯克利大学，沃顿商学院研究生，全优成绩毕业，开始在德崇工作，先从事研究工 作，后来转到推销和交易部门(1.11) , 保险公司客户成为最早的投资者，并在达到和超过预期收益后成为其拥趸(1.11) , 成立高收益债券共同基金(1.11) , 控制1/4垃圾债市场，成为唯一的做市商(1.11) , 这一成功与德崇没太大的关系，而成为其独立王国(1.11) , 1984-1987年，控制了40-50%的交易，拥有绝对的控制力(1.11) , 每天工作15小时，一周工作7天，从不饮酒、咖啡和苏打，从不抱怨困难，对工作全 力以赴，不浪费任何时间，以工作为重(1.7) 5. 风险控制 , 信息披露(1.13) , 公开发行:登记注册;对信息的真实性和准确性承担法律责任;存续期内持续and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation 披露——季报和年报;重大经营和财务状况变化披露;受信用评级机构和审计 机构监管; , 非公开发行:满足信息的“公平披露原则” , 债券契约(1.13):通过债券契约，明确双方的权利和义务，特别保护债券持有人的权 利。契约在抵押品、偿债基金、股息政策和继续借贷等方面做出一些限制规定。 , 抵押品:设定抵押品;信用债则设定条款限制企业将资产抵押质押给其它债权 人; , 偿债基金:未到期前预先提存一部分基金，将压力分散到若干年; , 继续借贷:限制继续借贷规模，对偿债指标设限定，债务具有优先偿付权; , 股息:若干年内，派发股息不得高于公司收益的某个比例 , 违约后处理(1.13): , 破产保护:成功进行从组，免于破产，重建再生，促进资产最大化; , 破产清算:优先偿还有抵押品债权人 , 动态监管:款项专用、库存管理、供应链监控 , 交易所监管(1.3):设立偿债保障金专户、限制股息分配、引入多种增信方式、设立风 险基金 , 资产负债管理能力和经营能力的考验(1.4) , 引进CDS(信用违约互换合约)可以对冲风险(1.4) 6. 中国现状 , 短期融资债券(1.14) , 不限制发行利率，由发行人和承销商协商决定; , 不限制相关发行主体; , 目前不对公众发行 , 中小企业融资难:主要依赖商业银行，企业债门槛高，信用评级缺失，投资主题缺乏, (1.2) , 吸引力(1.2) , 对发行人:门槛低，对规模、信用等级、经营状况没有严格要求; , 对投资人:由于风险溢价，收益较高 , 我国中小企业私募债发行(1.3): , 不受发债规模不超过净资产40%的限制; , 发债利率则不得超过银行同期贷款利率的3倍 , 合格投资者(1.3): , 商业银行、证券公司、信托公司和保险公司等; , 企业法人注册资本不低于1000万元;合伙企业认缴出资不低于5000万元，实缴出 资不低于1000万元; , 个人投资者:个人名下的证券账户、资金账户、资产管理账户的资产总额不低于人 民币500万元，且具有两年以上的证券投资经验 , 《上海证券交易所债券市场投资者适当性管理暂行办法》规定，普通投资者不能投资信 用评级在AA级以下的公司债券; , 评级机构整体稚嫩，影响较大的有五家，分别是中诚信国际、联合资信、大公国际、上 海远东资信、上海新世纪评级等(1.6) , 信用评级体系主要针对大企业制定，过于强调资产规模，中小企业与大企业使用同一标and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation 准，从而造成评级较低(1.9) , 中型企业划分(1.9) , 从业人员,2000人; , 销售收入,3亿元; , 资产合计低于,4亿元 , 小型企业划分标准(1.9) , 从业人员,300人; , 销售收入,3000万; , 资产合计低于,4000万 , 最近三年平均可分配利润(净利润)足以支付企业债券一年的利息(1.9) 7. 中国数据 , 2012年1月，北大国家发展研究院和阿里巴巴集团联合发布《2011年沿海三地区小微 企业经营与融资现状调研报告》指出，“向亲友借款”和“民间借贷”分别占长三角、 珠三角和环渤海地区小微企业2011年融资渠道的47%、23%、34%和7%、31%、13%， 而分别只有35%、21%和29%的小微企业能够从银行获得贷款(1.3) 8. 9. 生活 10. 生活 11. 美国数据 and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation