中国钢材市场需求的研究

中国钢材市场需求的研究 华中科技大学 硕士学位 中国钢材市场需求研究 姓名刘望辉 申请学位级别硕士 专业西方经济学 指导教师徐长生 20050429 摘 要 钢铁工业是国民经济中的重要的基础行业 对未来钢铁工业发展规模的 判断 既 影响到钢铁工业自身的投资与发展 也影响到诸多上下游产业以至国民经济全局 因此 在市场经济条件下 必须重视对钢材市场需求规律的研究 本文分析了影响我国钢材需求量的因素 认为GDP增长 产业结构的优化 科学 技术的发展等因素是影响我国钢材市场需求的主要因素 提出了我国达到钢材需求 饱和的四大基本条件 基本实现现代化 人均国内生产总值达到较高水平 产业结 构发生根本变化 第一产业比重大幅下降本文运用最新的计量分析 如协整理 论 向量自相关 VAR 模型 对我国钢材市场需求的总量与结构进行了预测 计 量分析的结果明 采用GDP 与钢材消费强度数据能对我国钢材市场需求总量进行 较为准确的短期预测 预计2005 年我国钢材表观消费量将达到34 亿吨左右 固定 资产投资与钢材表观消费量之间存在长期协整关系 可用固定资产投资对我国钢材 市场的长期需求进行预测 预计2010 年我国钢材表观消费量将达到44 亿吨左右 汽车 机械 房地产 家电四大行业对钢材市场的需求有较大的拉动作用 用于这 四大行业的高附加值产品将占据钢材市场需求总量的80 左右 根据研究结果 未来二三十年 我国钢材市场需求总量仍有一定的上升空间 对 高附加值产品的需求将占钢材需求总量的大部分 因此 钢铁企业应当加快 技术改 造 优化产品结构 以适应钢材市场需求的变化 关键词 钢材表观消费量 钢材消费强度 固定资产投资 I Abstract The steel industry is an important fundamental industry of national economyThe judgement to the development of steel industrys scale and structure in the future not only have influenced the steel industrys own investment and development but also influenced a great deal of industry from upstream to downstream even the overall situation of national economy Therefore under the condition of market economy we must pay attention to the research on demand law of steel market This thesis analyzes the factors concerning the steel demand in China and we conclude that many factors are the main reasons affecting the demand of steel market including GDP growth industrial structure optimization and development of science and technology etcAfter that we put forward four basic conditions for the realization of steel demand saturation in China namely realization of basic modernization increasing of per-capita GDPinnovation of industrial structure and decreasing of the ratio of primary industry This thesis uses new econometric analytical toolssuch as the cointegration theory and the vectorial autoregression VAR model to forecast the amount and structure of the steel market demandAccording to the econometric results It is shown that using the data of GDP and the intensity of steel consumption in Chinawe can carry on a more accurate short forecast to the total amount of the steel market demandthe apparent volume of chinas steel consumption will arrive at about 034 billion tons in 2005there is a long-term cointegration relation between the apparent volume of the steel consumption with the investment in fixed assetsthereforewe can use the data of investment in fixed assets to forecast the total amount of the steel market demand in a long term the apparent volume of chinas steel consumption will arrive at about 044 billion tons in 2010the demand of the automobile industry machinery industry real estate industry and electrical home appliances industry have great impact to the steel market demand the high II value-added products used in these four industry will occupy about 80 percent of the total amount of the steel market demand According to the research result it is shown that the total amount of the steel market demand in several decades still have certain rising space and the demand of high value –added products will occupy great part of the total amount of the steel m