影响股价的因素

影响股价的因素 1.经济周期 人们常说，股票市场是经济的晴雨表。也就是说股价变动不仅随经济周期的变化而变化，同时也能预示经济周期的变化。实证研究显示，股价的波动超前于经济波动。往往在经济还没有走出谷底时，股价已经开始回升，这主要是由于投资者对经济周期的一致判断所引起的。我们通常称股市是虚拟经济，称与之相对的现实经济为实物经济，两者的关系可以说是如影随形”，彼此都能对对方有所反映。 由于受资源约束、人们预期和外部因素影响，经济运行不会是一直处于均衡状态。经常出现的情况是经济处于不均衡状态。相应地，股市也具有上下波动运行的特点。 当社会需求随着人口增加、消费增加等因素而不断上升的时候，产品价格、工人工资、资本所有者的投资冲动都会增加，连带出现的情况是投资需求增加，市场资金价格(即利率)上涨。工资的增加又使得个人消费再度增加。企业投资的增加和个人可支配收人增加，使实物经济质量不断提高，企业效益不断上升，经济发展得到进一步刺激。当经济上升到一定程度时，社会消费增长速度开始放缓，产品供过于求，企业开始缩小生产规模，社会上对资金需求减少，资金价格下落，经济进人低迷状态。 当实物经济按照上述周期在运行时，以证券市场表示的虚拟经济也处干周期运行之中，只是证券市场运行周期比实物经济周期更为提前。 2.财政政策 and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation 财政是国家为实现其职能的需要对一部分社会产品进行的分配活动，它体现着国家与其有关各方面发生的经济关系。国家财政资金的来源，主要来自于企业的纯收人。其大小取决于物质生产部门以及其他事业的发展状况、经济结构的优化、经济效益的高低、以及财政政策的正确与否，财政支出主要用于经济建设、公共事业、教育、国防以及社会福利，国家合理的预算收支及措施会促使股价上扬，重点使用的方向，也会影响到股价。财政规模和采取的财政方针对股市有着直接影响。假如财政规模扩大，只要国家采取积极的财政方针，股价就会上涨;相反，国家财政规模缩小，或者显示将要紧缩财政的预兆，则投资者会预测未来景气不好而减少投资，因而股价就会下跌。虽然股价反应的程度会依当时的股价水准而有所不同，但投资者可根据财政规模的增减，作为辩认股价转变的根据之一。 财政投资的重点，对企业业绩的好坏，也有很大影响。如果政府采取产业倾斜政策，重点向交通、能源、基础产业投资，则这类产业的股票价格，就会受到影响。财政支出的增减，直接受到影响的是与财政有关的企业，比如与电气通讯、房地产有关的产业。因此.每个投资者应了解财政实施的重点。股价发生变化的时点，通常在政府的预算原则和重点施政还未发表前，或者是在预算公布之后的初始阶段。因此，投资者对国家财政政策的变化，也必须给以密切的关注，关心财政政策变动的初始阶段，适时做出买入和卖出的决策。 3.利率变动 为什么利率的升降与股价的变化呈反向运动的关系呢,这主要and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation 有3个原因: ?利率的上升，不仅会增加公司的借款成本，而且还会使公司难以获得必需的资金，这样，公司就不得不消减生产规模，而生产规模的缩小又势必会减少公司的未来利润。因此，股票价格就会下跌。反之，股票价格就会上涨。 ?利率上升时，投资者评估股票价格所用的折现率也会上升，股票值因此会下降，从而，也会使股票价格相应下降;反之，利率下降股票价格则会上升。 ?利率上升时，一部分资金从投向股市转向银行储蓄和购买债券，从而会减少市场上的股票需求，使股票价格出现下跌。反这，利率下降时，储蓄的获利能力降低，一部分资金又可能从银行和债券市场流向股市，从而，增大了股票需求，使股票价格上升。 既然利率与股价运动呈反方向变化是一种一般情形，那么投资者就应密切关注利率的升降，并对利率的走向进行必要的预测，以便在利率变动之前，抢先一步对股票买卖进行决策。 对利率的升降走向进行预测，在我国应侧重注意如下几个因素的变化情况: ?贷款利率的变化情况。由于贷款的资金是由存款来供应的，因此，根据贷款利率的下调可以推测出存款利率必将出现下降。 ?市场的景气动向。如果市场兴旺，物价上涨，国家就有可能采取措施来提高利率水准，以吸引居民存款的方式来减轻市场压力。相反的，如果市场疲软，国家就有可能用降低利率水准的方法启动市场。 and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation ?资金市场的松紧状况和国际金融市场的利率水准。国际金融市场的利率水准，往往也能影响国内利率水准的升降和股市行情的涨跌。在一个开放的市场体系中，金钱是没有国界的，如果海外利率水准低，一方面会对国内的利率水准产生影响，另一方面，也会吸引海外资金进人国内股市，拉升股票价格上扬。反之，如果海外水准上升，则会发生与上述相反的情形。 4.汇率变动 外汇行情与股票价格有密切的联系。一般来说，如果一国的货币是实行升值的基本方针，股价便会上涨，一旦其货币贬值，股价即随之下跌。所以外汇的行情会带给股市以很大的影响。 在当代国际贸易迅速发展的潮流中，汇率对一国经济的影响越来越大。任何一国的经济都在不同的程度上受汇率变动的影响，而且，汇率变动对一国经济的影响程度取决于该国的对外开放度程度，随着各国开放度的不断提高，股市受汇率的影响也日益扩大。但最直接的是对进出口贸易的影响，本国货币升值受益的多半是进口业，亦即依赖海外供给原料的企业;相反的，出口业由于竞争力降低，而导致亏损。可是当本国货币贬值时，情形恰恰相反。但不论是升值或是贬值，对公司业绩以及经济局势的影响，都各有利弊，所以，不能单凭汇率的升降而买人或卖出股票，这样做就会过于简单化。 利率变动对股价的影响，最直接的是那些从事进出口贸易的公司的股票。它通过对公司营业及利润的影响，进而反映在股价上，其主要表现是: and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation (1)若公司的产品相当部分销售海外市场，当汇率提高时，则产品在海外市场的竞争力受到削弱，公司盈利情况下降，股票价格下跌。 (2)若公司的某些原料依赖进口，产品主要在国外销售，那么汇率提高，使公司进口原料成本降低，盈利上升，从而使公司的股价趋于上涨。 (3)如果预测到某国汇率将要上涨，那么货币资金就会向上升转移，而其中部分资金将进人股市，股票行情也可能因此而上涨。 因此，投资者可根据汇率变动对股价的上述一般影响，并参考其它因素的变化进行正确的投资选择。 5.物价变动 普通商品价格变动对股票市场有重要影响。具体来说，物价上涨，股价上涨;物价下跌，股价也下跌。具体分析商品价格对股票市场价格的影响，主要表现在四个方面: ?商品价格出现缓慢上涨，幅度不是太大，且物价上涨率大于借贷利率的上涨率时，这时，公司库存商品的价格上升，由于产品价格上涨的幅度高于借贷成本的上涨幅度，于是公司利润会上升，股票价格也会因此而上升。 ?商品价格上涨幅度过大，股价没有相应上升，反而可能下降。这是因为，物价上涨引起公司生产成本上升，而上升的成本又无法通过商品销售而完全转嫁出去，从而使公司的利润降低，股价也随之降低。 and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation ?物价上涨，商品市场的交易呈现繁荣兴旺时，有时是股价正陷于低沉的时候，人们热衷于即期消费，使股价下跌;当商品市场上涨回跌时，反而成了投资股票的最好时机，从而引起股价上涨。 ?物价持续上涨，引起股票投资者保值意识的作用增加，因此使投资者从股市中抽出资金，转而投向动产或不动产，如房地产、贵重金属等保值强的物品上，带来股票需求量降低，因而使股价下跌。 6.通货膨胀 通货膨胀是影响股票市场价格的一个重要宏观经济因素。这一因素对股票市场趋势的影响比较复杂，它既有刺激股票市场的作用，又有压抑股票市场的作用。通货膨胀主要是由于过多地增加货币供应量造成的。货币供应量与股票价格一般呈正比关系，即货币供给量增大使股票价格上升;反之，货币供给量缩小则使股票价格下降。但在特殊情况下又有相反的趋势 货币供给量对股票价格的正比关系，有三种表现: ?货币供给量增加，一方面可以支持生产扶持物价，阻止利润下降;另一方面对股票的需求增加，又成为股价止跌回升的重要因素。 ?货币供给量增加引起社会商品的价格上涨，股份公司的销售相应增加，从而使得以货币数量表现的股利〔即股票的名义收益)有一定幅度的上升，使股票需求增加，从而股票价格也相应增加。 ?货币供给量的递增引起通货膨胀，通货膨胀带来的往往是虚假的市场繁荣，最终出现企业利润上升的假象，保值意识使人们倾向于将货币投向贵重金属、不动产和短期证券，股票需求量也会增加，从and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation 而使股票价格相应增加。 由上述可见，货币供给量的增减，是影响股价的重要原因之一，货币供给量增加，扩大的社会购买力就会投资于股票上，从而把股价抬高。反之，如果货币供给量减少，社会购买力降低，投资就会减少，失业率就会增加，因而股价也必定会受影响。这是问题的主要方面。 ???但是，通货膨胀到一定程度，甚至超过了两位数，将会推动利率上涨，从而使股价下跌，这又是其对股价作用的另一方面。 总之，当刺激作用大时，股票市场的趋势与通货膨胀的趋势一致;当压抑作用大时，股票市场的趋势与通货膨胀趋势相反。 7.政治因素 政治因素泛指那些对股票价格具有一定影响力的国际政治活动、重大经济政策的发展以及政府的法令、政治措施等。政治形势的变化，对股票价格也产生了越来越敏感的影响。其主要表现在: ?国际形势的变化。如外交关系的改善会使有关跨国公司的股价上升。投资者应在外交关系改善时，不失时机地购进相关跨国公司的股票 ?战争的影响。战争使各国政治经济不稳定，人心动荡，股价下跌，这是战争造成的广泛影响。但是战争对不同行业的股票价格影响又不同，比如，战争使军需工业兴盛，那么凡是与军需工业有关的公司的股票价格必然上涨。因此，投资者应适时购进军需及其相关工业的股票，售出容易在战争中受损的行业的股票。 ?国内重大政治事件，如政治风波等也会对股票产生影响。先对and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation 股票投资者的心理产生影响，从而间接地影响股价。 ?国家的重大经济政策，如产业政策、税收政策、货币政策对股票价格有重大影响。国家重点扶持、发展的产业，其股票价格会被推高;而国家强制发展的产业，股票价格会受到不利影响，例如，国家对社会公用事业的产品和劳务实行限价，包括交通运输、煤气、水电等，这样就会直接影响公用事业的盈利水准，导致公用事业公司股价下跌;货币政策的改变，会引起市场利率发生变化，从而引起股价变化;税收政策方面，能够享受国家减税、免税优惠的股份公司，其股票价格会出现上升趋势，而调高个人所得税，则会使社会消费水准下跌，引起商品的滞销，从而对公司生产规模造成影响，导致盈利下降，股价下跌。这些政策因素对股票市场本身产生的影响，即通过公司盈利和市场利率产生一定的影响，进而引起股票价格的变动。 8.人为操纵 一般说，在正常的股票市场上，能操纵股价的往往不是个人，而是一个大集团，如某些金融巨头运用手头的财势，在市场上兴风作浪，推波助澜，促使某些股票在市场上时而狂涨，时而暴跌，从而使他们在股票价格的剧烈波动中大发横财，而使一些中、小股东在这场恶战中倾家荡产 在股票市场中，操纵股价的方法是多种多样的，其中最常见最普遍的方法，就是一些金融集团利用股市在疲软之时，低价大量买进，然后设法哄抬价格，以便低进高出。一般在哄抬股价的过程中，仍在不断买进，并散发各种似是而非的谣言，以引诱散户跟进，从而使股and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation 市形成一种“利多”气氛效应，待股价达到相当高位时，再不声不响地将低价购进的股票出，这样大进大出就赚取了巨额暴利。相反的，某机构也可以在股价高峰，不断卖出，并设法压底行情，造成一种股价下跌的气氛，等股价低到某一价位时，再把高价卖出的股票全部买回，以达到高出低进的目的，这一出一进就可使操纵者获取暴利。 这种方法，主要是通过哄抬股价或压低股价来达到目的。但不论哄抬或压低行情，都必须造成有利于诱惑散户盲目跟进的市场环境才行，其最终获利的是操纵者，而吃亏的是盲目跟进的中、小股东。所以，每个投资者要善于观风向，提高识别多头、空头陷阱的能力，在股市交易场所中保持清醒头脑和警惕性。 投资者对待人为操纵的最好方法是不要盲目跟进，认真地研判股市大势，做到任凭风浪起，稳坐钓鱼船。 and other bad habits. Implementation to grab at the front, the maximum possible for jobs initiative to achieve efficient service. To carry forward the meticulous, detailed style. In the Office is no small matter. Business services a small mistake, it is possible to order at its meetings disrupted the entire, feedback on the content and timing a bit negligent, it could work in a passive position, slightly poor reception, may affect the image of a place and unit. Therefore, the Office staff with a high degree of professionalism and responsibility, serious and responsible, meticulous, careful to do everything to ensure that globalSmoothly. To carry forward the hard work, honest style. Adhere to the "Ning public and poverty, is not private and rich" old adage, bearing in mind the purpose of serving, consciously resist the erosion of various corruption and self-discipline, integrity, do not take leadership on behalf of the Office for personal affairs, not banner of leading organs of self-serving, and always maintain and carry forward the fine style of hard work, thrift and career, be honest and upright. Comrades, Government Office work task is glorious, a great responsibility. Hope the city's system of Government Office around the overall situation, pay attention to implementation of work in the purpose, give full play to staff aides, integrated and coordinated implementation, supervision, service functions, close contact, strengthen coordination, collaboration, efforts for grass-roots leadership services, service, quality and level of services for the masses to push to a new level. 2003 annual summary meeting of the Office of the municipal government reports on innovation