当铁链拉紧的时候,最薄弱的一环先断（When the chain is tight, the weakest link is broken）

当铁链拉紧的时候,最薄弱的一环先断（When the chain is tight, the weakest link is broken） 当铁链拉紧的时候,最薄弱的一环先断(When the chain is tight, the weakest link is broken) When the chain is tight, the weakest link is broken 1, the higher the rate of return, the greater the risk Often said that investment in a sentence is "the greater the risk, the higher the rate of return, the face of adversity, the order is reversed is" the higher the rate of return, the greater the risk, the condition has not changed, is a lot of significance. From the point of view of investment returns, in addition to the policies of the monopoly industries, high technology or high threshold for the industry, or walk the edge of the law of the fishing industry and other industries is loopholes, has been unable to maintain high investment returns, so although the industry return on investment among different industries investment advantages are sometimes very different but in the long run, ordinary industry stable return on investment at about 5%-20%, if the low threshold of market environment completely free industry a year or several years of investment return rate suddenly changes, the main change is the industry risk investment returns, and up to 24%-180% high industry rate of return I see, only the risk, high risk, high risk...... There is nothing else besides that. This normalization that everyone can participate in the high risk behavior can sustain the high place that needs higher risk industries, in addition to individual enterprises temporarily revolving and old high attempt to poison by the throat in the disaster, is to cheat, gambling or speculation but speculation relative shortage of material type the most real. Wenzhou real mission is the most famous, therefore, when the form reversal, Wenzhou running is also the most famous, is the inevitable fruit. 2, the introduction of the new country ten is the cessation of drums Speculation relative shortage of material capital is a drum pass flower game, the drum stopped a moment, the red flower will be in front of each game participants pay the profits. The impact of macro-control China market factors is absolutely can not be ignored, the introduction of ten new countries to stop is real drums, is unable to escape their hands at this time. In 2003, Wenzhou's housing prices have been much higher than the reasonable rental income ratio and the ordinary wage income ratio, but because the profit performance of some policy operations and speculators, make prices more and more high every year, rising faster, until 2011 before and after the Spring Festival peak. Remember ten new country estate was launched in 2010 April, after the introduction of real estate policy, although still in the effort to make up prices, prices are still rising earnings expectations to enter the game over, but the shrinking trading volume tells people a fact, whether a dynamic real estate prices how hard, there is no real deal out, then the high listing price is only a virtual value, not into pockets of profit into the investors. Some people may say, real persons would earn bowl full of a plateful of house prices fell, the middle price is only the latter dead loss into the market follower. There is more people from their a house bought 03 years or thousand head, now at the beginning of the 40 thousand, so no matter how down no risk are profitable. I said 03 years the house has not changed hands, obviously he is not speculative real but the idle funds into real estate investors, or if in 09 years within a year to 2 times their assets changed hands, you feel shy with others that he is in the real estate, but because the interests of the the real eye stimulation, seldom think of profits can be secured, but to invest in small is big, the increase in size, this is the fundamental reason for nearly 10 years of real estate has high fever, the scale bigger, and real estate enterprises more and more money but they the asset liability ratio is not reduced, so when a certain percentage of the assets has shrunk as to be rich, and there will be more anti risk ability than 10 years ago. 3, virtual high property is water injection pork A pig through water injection can increase the weight of 15 kg, if the price per kilogram of 40 yuan, the consequences are more water income of 600 yuan, more than a few people buy less dry weight of pork. Real operation: first to a stable place to purchase a large amount of housing prices, and the sale price, and the monthly price increases, to maintain a steady growth momentum, causing prices to strong, and have good value expectations, so that onlookers will join in, investors will in order to achieve the purpose of increasing the value of RMB and those who just need to panic buying, the price will be more hot speculation, but the price increase will lead to promote the production of real estate, increase the scale, increase the industry association to thrive, the biggest benefit is of course the Chinese local government land office. With more houses built, prices more expensive, if you really just need to join the purchase, buyers can not be increased, even some people fled the profit, the game would be instantaneous collapse, this is the collapse of an avalanche, estimated the near future will appear, then, not only the real hand house water want to be seized as pork and lose everything, and just need to mortgage buyers will give off for the bank, not only the bank's bad debts increased, but because the social assets shrink, monetary tightening, will All business languishes., the next leader does not want to see any of its own in this scene and affect reelection therefore, in the hope that prices with controllable means to solve the gap in the exchange in the class. The purchase, to prevent persons of high admission offer, credit limit, to prevent the real self to housing prices just to be fishing. With the capital chain tension, borrow high credit loans and other financing means of financing to pay the down payment, the bank's collection approaching, the real winter is coming. 4, next year's house prices will be like this? Flat! Will house prices crash? No, at least not nationwide, but it doesn't rule out a big drop in parts of the country. China's market is often the policy market, and the policy is for political services. In order to ensure a smooth transition, the market does not have large fluctuations, but in order to quell the discontent, the decline in prices. Therefore, my prediction is that next year prices steadily, this is also a lot of people and even some leaders want to see. However, we know that the economic problem is a natural law, is not transferred to the will of man, housing prices is an economic issue, will be, as some people would like to develop it? That depends on how the operator's control, the water flow down to the natural law, but the water is not difficult uphill. Maybe it's just between control. 5, 10.99 of the average life expectancy of private enterprises marked 9.1% renewal rate. No matter how next year, now Wenzhou business closures come, the forum is a lot of people every day sitting in front of the computer at the high running is more healthy! Many people believe that the reality is not so serious, the forum broke the news is false, on the contrary, the forum saw failures are a typical, true size is far greater than it does not say, this is a special year, in the form of a good situation, the enterprise bankruptcy is far more than this number. Therefore, the increase in the number of cases can only change the sample, to improve the quality of the sample is not affected, so the Statistics Bureau will dare to say what is good, what would increase by 17%. In 2009, a survey said that the average life expectancy of Wenzhou private enterprises was 10.99 years. What does that mean? Marks the annual turnover rate of enterprises is 9.1%, that is, if there are 300 thousand enterprises in Wenzhou, and the number of enterprises remain stable, then every year there will be 27 thousand and 300 of enterprises closed down, and then 27 thousand and 300 of new enterprises opened. According to said in August of this year, Wenzhou private enterprises nearly 45 million, if according to the average life of 10.99 years even if this does not increase or decrease the number of enterprises, the closure of enterprises is theory reached 4.095 million, hundreds of thousands, "forum is not enough to see, with the theory of value is far worse, the upper don't worry, you what several bursts. Of course, because the average life expectancy of enterprises is different, the result is completely different. Some algorithms even calculate that only 3 or 4 years, it is said that the average of the country is only 2.9, and that the rate of enterprise renewal is 34.5%, If people are forced to save, they do not conform to the objective law of the optimal combination of social resources. Wenzhou magistrate if you really care about the local economy, the idle money loss making enterprises, the decline of the industrial investment environment as optimization, introduced several good performance of real high-tech enterprises, and even the world's top five hundred large enterprises, and guide enterprises to upgrade and spawned a number of competitive enterprises. Otherwise, more bailout funds cannot change Wenzhou's weakness, can only be attracted at the beginning of the labor shortage and the end closures, then in order to save the market will continue to issue a note printing money, and then in the soaring prices and grievances waiting for "the world of science since the famine". 7, the enterprise profit is less and less, why is the price higher and higher? This regulation is mainly to curb inflation, so that inflation is caused by how it is, many people say is mainly international inflation, that's true, but careful analysis, as the second largest economy, the influence of China price itself is not to be ignored, because we are a resource consuming country. But if we look for others to do the wedding dress. However, we imported iron ore, energy, raw materials and the use of smelting, produce cheap goods sold to developed countries, and then exchange the high-end luxury brands for the rich to enjoy, and for the general public is really not what benefits, in addition to the production of the waste residue of environmental pollution the other really has no effect, as for the development of production, promote employment, promote economic, it is because people only see the groundless statement, export zone The employment, did not see the impact of luxury goods in exchange for the local economy is more serious in developing countries and developed countries in general trade is at a disadvantage, I can give you an example that we use for agricultural and sideline products for foreign exchange, foreign exchange after not directly back, often also changed into high margin products back. So we can see that the same 1000 yuan of goods, we may have to pay 500 yuan of material cost, labor costs 300 yuan, only 200 yuan of profits, the developed countries may be as long as 200 of the material cost, labor costs 500, 300 yuan of profits, so from the perspective of resources to consider, that people with 200 yuan the resources for taking our 500 yuan of resources, considering the change from the living standards of workers, is a 1000 yuan for trade, our workers only benefit 300 yuan, other workers benefit 500 yuan, the enterprise benefit is higher in the other, it is very unfavorable to the three low product exporting countries. In addition, because the full exchange of high margin products, luxury goods, high-tech patent, consumption of the purchasing power of their potential, but also suppress the power of independent research and development of domestic high-tech enterprises, so the three low exports not only reduce our standard of living, more ability to reduce our self-reliance independent research and development, which leads to the the result is that we reduce income, reduce the resources, but also caused a rise in prices. Of course, some people think that there is a surplus in our trading. It is always beneficial to export excess capacity to other countries. Is that always beneficial? If the combination of monetary policy we will find this is the biggest inflation accomplice: we export 1000 yuan of goods, even if the profits of $20%, which was 800 yuan makes material flow out of the country, in exchange for $1000 in foreign exchange, monetary policy will Chinese to 1000 yuan when the foreign exchange reserves, then the issue of matching RMB market so in the market to reduce the 800 yuan of material under the condition of inflow of 1000 money, if not too much money, not in the domestic RMB to depreciate, it is the performance of inflation. Of course, another reason why inflation is the rising price of raw materials, the materials used is the main source of agriculture, mining industry, but the first to be constrained by the cost of agricultural seed, fertilizer, and mining industry with basic energy and chemical industry is a monopoly industry, profit capacity has improved a lot, but not always, why not let the industry threshold limit? Perhaps the only thing to take is the energy-saving emission reduction or safety production cap, However, such a high price index, monopoly industry wages so high, so high profits? Why not benefit the people, reduce the profits of the basic products, and stabilize prices? Raw material prices, but you have greater profits, not one, but first, why? Because of monopoly. 8, Lao Gao is not a monopoly industry Lao Gao is a high risk industry, perhaps because the profit is too high while walking in the edge of the law, but everyone can credit, why profits are so high? Because everyone is short of money. Isn't that contradictory? On the other hand, because of the proliferation of money and inflation, it is said that everyone is short of money. In fact, this is not contradictory, this is the aftermath of economic overheating, inflation, we do not dare to put money into the bank, to invest and borrow money, investment, increased purchasing power, inflation intensified. I have analyzed the annual salary of 100 thousand of the family can not save the money in Wenzhou, see [talk] has economic genius - barge investment is also a purchasing power, is a kind of consumption (the updated) The annual salary of more than 200 thousand, not only the little money investment bank interest to eat, as for the high income of the rich, most of them do business then you have big or small asset liability ratio is generally in owe money, so the money come from, usually money from bank loans to then, the bank where the money comes from? The official said it was depositors' deposits, and specifically the bankers. Of course, sometimes we just borrow a loan card on the amount, and did not take the money home, but when spending money is a direct transfer, so just from this account to the account, the total amount of the bank on did not decrease, but he was in the eating interest can put another the loan account money again? No, I had no idea. All I know is that banks are pulling deposits every quarter, but it's only a matter of days. I don't quite understand the problem of the bank, but I only know that money is tight now, so the enterprise can borrow money from the bank and borrow it from the people. But everyone is in debt, where the money comes from, so the lack of private capital, the higher the cross-border interest. Why do you want to borrow money, the poor because there is no money, because the rich want to borrow money, but with higher interest rates, money for money basic unprofitable, wealthy people would stop financing, even money lending earn Chinese money, which will reduce the demand, the supply will increase, such as demand reduction, supply increase will the decline in interest rates, but now the interest rate is more and more higher than other normal industry, so is the folk capital chain problems, this situation is because the rich want to borrow money and borrowed usury basically no, then who is to borrow money, no money to the poor (this may be a poor entrepreneur coat people with negative assets), gambler, Ponzi scheme, temporary cash flow difficulties of entrepreneurs, etc....... At this time the risk is too great, the matter to borrow money, in addition to experiencing temporary cash flow difficulties entrepreneurs, otherwise the other is waiting for the foot, but this opportunity is rare, so the risk is great. Wenzhou financing channels rarely, but there is a lot of formal financing channels unprofitable companies is unlikely to borrow money, so this part of the enterprise or the dead, then borrow money too, the hole is growing and eventually run away, but today there are a lot of business closures are temporary liquidity difficulties in the end by the high end dead, this is a pity, is a victim of overheating. 9, sustained economic overheating is only a reduction in investment, speculation flourished Wenzhou is the most active place for private capital, so it is also the first place for speculative speculation. The development of industry declined a few years ago, because of higher profits when speculation, what is speculation? Have a stable industry, there is no major breakthrough in technology, but the continued influx of capital, bigger and bigger scale, industry profit is more and more high, it is speculation, because this is not a stable supply and demand, Some people are hoarding commodities, of course, some speculation is not so simple, obvious, when prices speculation is so obvious, look at the vacancy rate can be found. Speculation can disrupt normal economic activity, and it can cause economic conditions to deteriorate from the industry. So when the party secretary Chen said key goal is to strengthen the investment rate, I applaud the decision, because the goal of action, if the government's goal is to strengthen the investment rate, so the action should improve the investment environment, endanger the normal economic order against speculation, and set reasonable industrial chain, to attract entrepreneurs to invest. But it seems that, when execution has become Xiuxiulu, carrying trees, demolition of illegal is payable. I have on the illegal building is behind, but the future of Wenzhou planned? Not only can not be built, it may be said that the road is engaged in infrastructure. The capital chain tension, not to stimulate the local economy project planning and projects to promote economic, of course is very difficult, but the main reason is that Wenzhou in the country to buy a house, go out to deal now, then Wenzhou had each month to all parts of the country also loans and outflow for the month, which is the fundamental reason for funding strand breaks, so Wenzhou is the real estate capital chain breaking transition.