20131024 高华证券：亚洲经济分析：采用多种工具分析亚洲经济体

2013年 10月 24日 Issue No: 13/39 亚洲经济分析 研究 采用多种工具分析亚洲经济体 在本周的亚洲经济分析中，我们采用我们所创建的专有宏观工具来衡量亚洲新兴 经济体的增长和通胀状况、得出其对亚太地区经济前景的部分影响，并对我们即 将推出的新分析工具做一简要介绍。 最近关于经济增长的消息大致符合预期，这可以体现在我们衡量数据较预期偏离 程度的 MAP指数中。今年上半年我们看到一系列指标低于预期，随后在 7、8月 份又看到好于预期的数据出炉，尤其是中国。 从绝对水平来看，中国大陆的增长最近有所改善 – 高盛当前活动指标显示环比增 长 9%，且已被三季度实际 GDP数据证实 – 韩国和台湾地区也如此。外需小幅回 暖对此起到了推动，从高盛外需指数来看，增速从不到 1%升至接近 2%。同时， 在南亚和东南亚，总体经济增速不那么鼓舞人心，尤其是印度的当前活动指标大 幅放缓。 金融状况受到全球利率波动以及各地金融市场波动的冲击。今年年初以来，由于 利率上升、信贷放缓以及人民币升值的综合影响，高盛中国金融状况指数已收紧 了 200个基点。 亚太地区大部分经济体的通胀压力看似较为缓和，但印度和印尼显然除外。我们 对贸易品和非贸易品的通胀“篮子”，或说对管制价格和市场价格的初步研究将 有助于了解通胀的推动力何在。 本期内容 Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 andrew.tilton@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Goohoon Kwon, CFA +82(2)3788-1775 goohoon.kwon@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司首尔分公司 Tushar Poddar +91(22)6616-9042 tushar.poddar@gs.com 高盛（印度）证券私人有限公司 崔历 +852-2978-0784 li.cui@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 宋宇 +86(10)6627-3111 yu.song@ghsl.cn 北京高华证券有限责任公司 Mark Tan +65-6889-2472 mark.tan@gs.com 高盛（新加坡）私人公司 Chiwoong Lee +82(2)3788-1722 chiwoong.lee@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司首尔分公司 邓敏强 +852-2978-6634 mk.tang@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Jonathan Sequeira +852-2978-0698 jonathan.sequeira@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Maggie Wei +852-2978-0106 maggie.wei@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 Vishal Vaibhaw +91(80)6637-8602 vishal.vaibhaw@gs.com 高盛（印度）证券私人有限公司 Hui Ying Chan +65-6654-5459 huiying.chan@gs.com 高盛（新加坡）私人公司 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 高盛集团 全球投资研究 Tooling up to analyze the Asian economies  page 2 Regional recap: Strong data in North Asia continues page 8 Asia ex‐Japan economic calendar page 12 Forecast tables page 14 2013年 10月 24日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究 2 Tooling up to analyze the Asian economies An important part of our regional research effort is the development of proprietary tools to measure growth, inflation, and other aspects of the economic environment in a timely and reliable manner, and in a way that facilitates comparisons with other countries both within and outside emerging Asia. In this week’s Asia Economics Analyst, we review the tools we have developed, try to draw out some of the implications for the regional economic outlook, and offer a “sneak preview” of an upcoming addition to the toolkit. The proprietary tools that we currently use in Asia are as follows (summarized in Exhibit 1):  Our Current Activity Indicator (CAI) is intended to serve as a timely measure of economic growth. It is calculated as the first principal component of available monthly activity measures, expressed in GDP-equivalent terms. For the Asia-Pacific economies, our CAIs contain from 6 to 13 indicators; the broader array of variables mean the calculation is less sensitive to distortions in any particular indicator and the monthly frequency allows us to have a much more timely update of growth than the GDP data. For further discussion see Asia Economics Analyst 13/05 – “Measuring growth in emerging Asia”, March 1, 2013.  The Macro-data Assessment Platform (MAP) is a measure of the strength of data on economic activity (growth) relative to expectations. The purpose of the MAP is to summarize in a single measure the relevance of an indicator and the degree of surprise in a particular release of that indicator. We base relevance on the correlation with real GDP growth (measured on a 0-5 scale), and the degree of surprise is characterized by the difference between the actual value of the indicator and the Bloomberg “consensus forecast” (measured on a -5 to +5 scale). We then tabulate a rolling average of MAP scores for individual indicators to get a country- or regional-level MAP score (with regional scores weighted by PPP GDP). See Asia Economics Analyst 13/15 – “A redesigned MAP of emerging Asia data”, May 10, 2013, for more information.  External Demand Indices (XDIs) measure the growth of domestic demand in a country’s major trading partners, weighted according to the share of exports to each. This allows us to assess the degree to which external conditions are affecting the growth outlook, or (based on our forecasts for other countries) how those external conditions are likely to evolve in the future. The construction of these indices is explained in detail in Asia Economics Analyst 13/19 – “Emerging Asia—still ‘coupled’ to DM demand”, June 7, 2013.  Financial conditions indices (FCIs) summarize whether interest rates, and asset prices more generally, are conducive to economic growth. We recently revamped the FCI for China to reflect broader credit growth (total social financing) and interbank interest rates, and recalibrated its relationship to Chinese growth based on a longer data set (see Asia Economics Analyst 13/21 – “China’s growth headwinds through the lens of a new FCI”, June 21, 2013).  We are in the process of developing “inflation baskets” to aid our interpretation of the underlying drivers of inflation across the region, and offer a preview later in this writeup. By slicing the inflation data in different ways than they are typically provided—for example, looking at inflation in tradeable versus nontradeable goods—we think we can gain additional insight into inflation dynamics and aid forecasting. 2013年 10月 24日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究 3 Exhibit 1: Indicators in the Asia ex-Japan macro toolkit Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. On balance, growth data in emerging Asia have been in-line with expectations recently after a period of better-than-expected news. Excluding China, the summary MAP score for the region— which weights the MAP score of each economy by its GDP at purchasing power parity—reflected negative surprises throughout the summer, but has turned more positive recently (Exhibit 2 shows a 3-month weighted rolling average of MAP scores (placing more weight on more recent observations). Chinese data released in August and September were quite strong; now that expectations have risen, the most recent data points have been slightly below those more optimistic expectations on average. Exhibit 2: Regional data—reality back in line with expectations Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Tool What it stands for What it measures Frequency available Possible uses CAI Current Activity  Indicator Economic growth Monthly Early read on activity; cross‐check of official growth  data such as GDP, industrial production  MAP Macro‐data Assessment  Platform Economic activity, relative to  expectations Daily* Summarizing tone of recent data; assessing  whether markets have reacted "typically" to data  surprises XDI External Demand Index Foreign demand growth  Quarterly  Calibrating impact of external environment on  growth; forecasting export growth FCI Financial Conditions  Index Stance of domestic financial  conditions Monthly** Summarizing financial market environment; growth  forecasting Inflation  baskets Inflation in particular types of  goods or services Monthly Determining sources of inflation pressure; inflation  forecasting  * We typically present country MAP scores on a 3‐month weighted rolling average basis.  ** In other parts of the world, some FCIs (for example that for the US) are available on a daily basis Source:  GS Global Economics Research -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Asia excluding China and Japan China Index Index MAP score (3-month weighted average): 2013年 10月 24日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究 4 On an absolute basis, China’s growth momentum has accelerated significantly since mid-year. Exhibit 3 illustrates our CAI for China, measured as an annualized quarterly rate of growth.1 The CAI bottomed at 7.2% annualized growth in April and accelerated steadily to 8.8% as of September, presaging the very healthy Q3 real GDP report (discussed in more detail in the weekly recap in the next section). Exhibit 3: Chinese activity growth c.9% on a sequential basis Source: Haver, CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Financial conditions have tightened somewhat in China in 2013 on a combination of higher interest rates and deceleration in credit growth, unwinding a net easing in these areas over the course of 2012 (Exhibit 4; the composition of the FCI is described in more detail in the recap section). Another factor contributing to tighter financial conditions has been renminbi (CNY) appreciation. However, in the near term we think improving external demand will dominate the effect of a stronger currency on exports. 1 Specifically, we compare the level of activity over the most recent three months with the three months prior to that; we then annualize the rate of change. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP CAI Percent change, qoq annualized Percent change, qoq annualized Chinese growth indicators (seasonally adjusted): 2013年 10月 24日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究 5 Exhibit 4: Chinese financial conditions have tightened this year Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Growth in neighboring northern Asia economies has also been encouraging, with both Korean and Taiwanese data picking up in recent months (Exhibit 5). Although these CAIs are more volatile, particularly Taiwan’s, they both point to 4%+ sequential growth at the moment. We recently raised our real GDP growth forecasts for Korea to a further above-consensus 2.9% in 2013E and 3.7% in 2014E. In southeast Asia, the Philippines has been a particular standout (Exhibit 6). Exhibit 5: Signs of a pickup in smaller open economies Exhibit 6: Robust growth in the Philippines Source: Haver, CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: Haver, CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. An important reason for the improvement in many regional economies is a pickup in external demand. Demand growth in Asia’s trading partners slowed sharply from a 3-4% pace before the global financial crisis (and a similar pace immediately after, in 2010) to less than 1% from Q1 2012 to Q1 2013 (Exhibit 7). The most recent data suggest a moderate pickup, and we anticipate further acceleration in key developed markets in 2014, though not a return to pre-GFC growth rates. 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 China Financial Conditions Index Index Index Tighter -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Taiwan Current Activity Indicator (Left Axis) Korea Current Activity Indicator (Right Axis) Percent, quarter on quarter annualized Percent, quarter on quarter annualized -10 -5 0 5 10 15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Philippines Current Activity Indicator Percent, quarter on quarter annualized Percent, quarter on quarter annualized 2013年 10月 24日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究 6 Exhibit 7: Nascent pickup in developed-market demand Source: Haver, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Unfortunately, not every economy has seen growth improvement. The current account deficit countries in Asia—India and Indonesia in particular—faced significant funding pressures over the summer, making the financial market environment much less conducive to growth. Indonesian activity growth has moderated recently (Exhibit 8), and Indian growth has slowed sharply—to just over 4% as measured by our CAI (Exhibit 9). In Thailand, growth has weakened throughout the year, reflecting deceleration in credit and (until recently) weaker external demand, rather than capital outflow pressures which came later and were much more limited in Thailand’s case. Exhibit 8: Recent deceleration in growth in Indonesia Exhibit 9: A sharper and more sustained slowdown in India Source: Haver, CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Source: Haver, CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Inflation pressures in Asia are most evident in India and Indonesia. A combination of past overheating and reduction in fuel subsidies, and other factors (including food prices in India) have -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Percent change, year-on-year GS Forecast Asia ex-Japan External Demand Index Percent change, year-on-year 4 5 6 7 8 4 5 6 7 8 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Indonesia Current Activity Indicator Percent, quarter on quarter annualized Percent, quarter on quarter annualized 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 India Current Activity Indicator Percent, quarter on quarter annualized Percent, quarter on quarter qnnualized 2013年 10月 24日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究 7 pushed inflation well above desired levels in both countries. Exhibit 10 illustrates that while administered prices—particularly fuel—have driven a large part of the increase in Indonesia of late, market-based prices are also reflecting increased pressure. While this particular chart reflects an official series on administered prices in Indonesia, we are working to develop similar measures of administered versus market-based prices across emerging Asia, as well as breakdowns of tradeable versus nontradeable goods inflation. Exhibit 10: Subsidy cuts not the whole inflation story for Indonesia Source: Haver, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Andrew Tilton -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Administered Market-based Percent change, year-on-year Percent change, year-on-year Indonesian consumer prices: 2013年 10月 24日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究 8 Regional recap: Strong data in North Asia continues In China, GDP growth accelerated meaningfully in Q3, in line with our expectations. Real GDP growth improved to 7.8% yoy in Q3 from 7.5% yoy in Q2, and sequential growth (based on our estimates) rebounded to more than 9% from 6.5% during this period (refer back to Exhibit 3 on page 4 of the feature article). The economy, in particular the manufacturing sector, benefited from improving global demand and strong inventory restocking. September industrial production (IP) growth was softer than the very strong readings in July and August, but was still firm (Exhibit 1). Some ease in infrastructure investment and export growth, moderation in the pace of inventory building, and closures of heavy polluters were the likely drivers of the softer September data. Exhibit 1: Chinese activity data stayed firm Source: CEIC. The improvement in growth took place despite the continued tightening of financial conditions. Our FCI tightened by 90bp in Q3, most of which was driven by the tightening of domestic funding conditions (the overall index is shown as Exhibit 4 on page 5 of the feature article; the contribution of each component is illustrated in Exhibit 2 below). The tightening of the domestic funding index reflects higher interbank rates, and deceleration of credit and M2 in Q3. We maintain our expectation of some sequential growth deceleration in coming quarters as inventory rebuilding subsides. Further improvement in exports will likely be offset by the impact of domestic tightening on investment. In yoy terms, we expect growth in Q4 and 2014 will be relatively stable (7.6% and 7.7%, respectively). 0 5 10 15 20 25 35 40 45 50 55 60 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 Official manufacturing PMI (left axis) Industrial production (right axis) Index Percent change, year over year 2013年 10月 24日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究 9 Exhibit 2: China financial conditions have continued to tighten; Q3 tightening was driven by domestic funding conditions Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. The October HSBC/Markit flash PMI improved to 50.9, compared to last month’s final reading of 50.2. Although the flash PMI can be slightly backward-looking (see EM Macro Daily – “Three more things to note on China’s PMIs”, September 18, 2013), the improved reading is consistent with sustained manufacturing recovery. In particular, the new export orders index held up, notwithstanding the soft September export data. Other cyclical indicators, in particular new orders and production indices, also showed improvement. FX inflows rebounded, along with the recovery in growth sentiment and the delayed expectation on tapering. Monthly FX sales by non-banks rose to US$21bn in September, compared to near zero sales in the previous two months (Exhibit 3). The total of US$21bn net FX purchase in Q3 was lower than the total FX reserve accumulation (about US$110bn), with the gap possibly reflecting the temporary FX sales by commercial banks to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the impact of valuation changes on FX reserves. However, both data point to a meaningful rebound of FX inflows. Exhibit 3: FX inflows increased in Q3, driven by a decline in non-FDI capital outflows Source: CEIC. Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Funding Index contribution EQUITY_YOY contribution NEER_YOY contribution Overall change in FCI Change in FCI index Change in FCI index Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 -60 -30 0 30 60 90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90 FX flows (3mma) (US$ bn) Other flows Trade balance Net FDI Total fx purchases US$ bn US$ bn 2013年 10月 24日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究 10 Capital inflows have added to upward pressure on the CNY and domestic liquidity. The CNY fixing was lowered (i.e., appreciated) 0.36% in September, and a further 0.13% in October to date. This has brought the CNY/USD fixing to around 6.13, the lowest on record (Exhibit 4). CNY spot, however, was largely stable during September, which along with the reserve accumulation points to increased central bank intervention. CNY spot has appreciated by about 0.54% (or at an annualized rate of 10%) in the last two weeks, suggesting further inflow pressures. With the increase in FX inflows, the PBOC has turned more cautious on liquidity management. It has refrained from injecting liquidity since last week, the first time in 3 months, and the 7-day repo climbed to 4.5% in the last few days, from 3.6% last week. Exhibit 4: The CNY has strengthened in recent weeks Source: Bloomberg. Korea and Taiwan also saw solid data this week. In Korea, daily exports in October rose 11% yoy, from 13% yoy in September. Daily exports rebounded 2.8% mom (US$2.3bn) from a decline of 2.5% mom in September (Exhibit 5). Headline exports were up 2.7% yoy from a decline of 2.9% yoy in September. In Taiwan, IP grew 1.1% yoy (0.9% mom s.a.) in September, beating Bloomberg consensus expectations of 0.1% yoy. Our Taiwan CAI stands consistent with 4.7% qoq annualized growth in September, a meaningful acceleration from 2% real growth (qoq annualized) in Q2. 6.05 6.10 6.15 6.20 6.25 6.30 6.05 6.10 6.15 6.20 6.25 6.30 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 CNY CNY fixing CNY/USD CNY/USD 2013年 10月 24日 亚洲经济分析 全球投资研究 11 Exhibit 5: Stronger Korean exports Source: Korea Customs Office. Inflation pressures continue in Singapore. Though headline CPI inflation moderated to 1.6% yoy in September from 2.0% yoy in August, this was entirely due to base effects. The yoy readings continue to be suppressed b