世界发展报告（世界银行2002）

l 24711l l August 2002 wo2 SUSUtM,61e Development R'i a Dyimm'c Wadd i mo dg ltmd=o Gmw&s mod Qudt ofI GI: . .. .L ,~~~~~~~~~~~R kv D. o ffi~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 THEIORLD3AN SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN A DYNAMIC WORLD World Development Report 2003 O yverview IU The World Bank Washington, D.C. © 2002 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. Cover design by Debra Naylor, Naylor Design, Inc. Cover images: A montage of two satellite sensor products, the cover image shows the lights of human settlements and (on May 14, 2002) variation in sea surface temperatures. The image illustrates several World Development Report 2003 themes: the link berween growth and environment (higher income correlated with greater energy use), the continuing socio-economic challenge of inequality and poverty reduction (vast disparity in the energy use of developed countries and that of developing countries), the interconnectedness and impact of human activity (fossil fuel-based energy use raising sea surface temperatures), and the need to gather information (such as that provided by satellite sensors) to anticipate and monitor prob- lems if the world is to shift to a more sustainable development. City lights image courtesy of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Digital Archive, National Geographic Data Center, U.S. National Oceanic and Aeronautics Administration. Sea surface temperatures image courtesy of U.S. National Climatic Data Center. Inside art and typesetting by Barton Matheson Willse & Worthington, Baltimore. Manufactured in the United States of America First printing August 2002 This document summarizes World Development Report 2003, a copublication of the World Bank and Oxford Universiry Press. It is a product of the staff of the World Bank, and the judgments made herein do not necessarily reflect the views of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use. ISBN 0-8213-5187-7 Contents of World Development Report 2003 1 Achievements and Challenges The core development challenge Act now-for long-term problems 2 Managing a Broader Portfolio of Assets Sustainability-an evolving framework Measuring sustainability The importance of a range of assets Why the need to manage a broader portfolio of assets? Tradeoffs and sustainable development Some assets are overused or underprovided-why? Correcting the overuse or underprovision of important assets 3 Institutions for Sustainable Development Institutions coordinating human behavior Institutions protecting assets Picking up signals, balancing interests, and implementing decisions Overcoming barriers to coordination Promoting inclusiveness Catalysts for change 4 Improving Livelihoods on Fragile Lands Inclusion, innovation, and migration Managing fragile land to improve livelihoods Living on the edge-the arid plains Living on a precipice-the mountains Nurturing assets by listening-and by enabling communities to act Nurturing women's human capital Building on traditional social capital The use of nonrenewable local resources-balancing interests Balancing interests among governments, companies, and communities Partnering for change IV CONTENTS 5 Transforming Institutions on Agricultural Land Land and water constraints Eliminating rural poverty and preparing outmigrants Intensifying the use of land Intensifying the use of water Getting ahead of the frontier Conclusion 6 Getting the Best from Cities The challenges of urban life City lights: beacons of hope and warning flares Building informed constituencies to address spillovers and anticipate risks Balancing interests to provide urban public goods Inclusion and access to assets-challenging the institutional roots of urban slums Institutions for sustainable urban development Conclusion 7 Strengthening National Coordination Promoting inclusiveness Creating a sound investment climate Managing the environment Managing natural resources and using aid effectively Averting violent conflict Conclusion 8 Global Problems and Local Concerns Designing institutions to solve global problems Conserving biodiversity: maintaining current services and future options Mitigating and adapting to risks of climate change Conclusion 9 Pathways to a Sustainable Future Acting today Ongoing dialogue: a global vision and accord Ongoing dialogue: some open questions Bibliographical Note Selected World Development Indicators Overview Development is sustainable if the rules of the game are are not spontaneously provided by markets: en- transparent and the game is inclusive. vironmental assets (clean water, clean air, fish- eries, and forests) and social assets (mutual trust, ability to network, and security of persons andT t wo billion people will be added to the world's property). population over the next 30 years, and another n Competent institutions for coordination pick up 1 billion over the following 20 years. All of this signals about problems, balance interests fairly and increase will occur in developing countries, and almost efficiently in formulating policies, and execute entirely in urban areas. Today, 2.8 billion people in de- policies in an accountable fashion. Such institu- veloping countries live on less than $2 a day. The core tions enable societies to negotiate paths to "win- challenge for sustainable development is to ensure a win" opportunities-paths that can be elusive when better quality of life for all these people while meeting the costs to some groups go uncompensated. everyone's aspirations for well-being. This demands m The distribution of assets is critical in determin- substantial growth in income and productivity in de- ing whom institutions serve and how policies are veloping countries. At the same time, it is necessary to formed. Institutions are often absent, or are sustain critical ecosystem services and strengthen the flawed, when interests are dispersed or when some social fabric that underpins development, groups in society are poor or in other ways disen- World Development Report 2003 is about improv- franchised. Groups that lack assets tend also to ing well-being and protecting what people value and lack voice, security, and a stake in the larger soci- want to pass on to their children. Its messages, in serity, and a k insthe larger- brief, are these: For people to thrive, assets must form their necessary coordination functions. This thrive. A broad portfolio of assets-physical, finan- . . . cial, human, social, and environmental-needs to be can result vicous, self-remnforcng clrcles as b- managed responsibly if development is to be sustain- ased institutions implement policies that lead to able-because of thresholds and complementarities more unequal asset distribution and greater po- among assets. larization. It is difficult, but possible, to develop policies that increase voice and access to assets, * Institutions such as property rights and the rule of shifting development dynamics from vicious to law are essential for the creation of human-made virtuous circles and toward greater sustainability assets and the efficient operation of markets as a (see figure 1). When more people are heard, fewer coordinating institution. assets are wasted. As the world comes to resemble * Additional institutions are needed to coordinate a single community, these lessons may apply even and ensure an adequate supply of the assets that at the global level. 2 OVERVIEW Figure 1 perspective allows analysis of the cumulative impact Policies-institutions-assets loop of incremental changes that affect sustainability and recognizes the longer time horizon required for insti- Policies shape tutional reform. Because the Report looks at a longer Policies institutions and distribution time horizon, many policy parameters become vari- of assets ables. For example, preferences and technologies that Distribution of -nstitution can be assumed to be fixed in the short run cannot assets shapes be assumed to be fixed in the long run. Similarly, al- institutions and policies Distribution of as location issues (the subject of economics) and the bargaining over distribution problems (the subject of politics) cannot be neatly separated. The Report does not focus on specific policies or The implication for development strategies and organizational designs, nor does it evaluate projec- development assistance is that greater emphasis should tions based on different policy or organizational be placed on: scenarios. It recognizes the importance of economic incentives and policies in changing behavior, but * Identifying the vicious circles that keep the pace argues that appropriate policies have not been of growth slow and the distribution of assets un- adopted or implemented because of institutional equal-and developing strategic interventions to weaknesses. For this reason, it looks at the underpin- break these vicious circles nings of good institutions that can design, adopt, * Investing in projects, programs, and initiatives and implement sustainable responses and at how that bring about better, more inclusive institutions such institutions emerge and adapt to problems and and ensure systematic learning opportunities. The premise for this institutional * Supporting the evolution of an ecosystem of orga- focus is that development problems and solutions nizations that learn-and applying that learning which are not even foreseeable today can be better, to improving policies and projects. and sustainably, addressed when institutional foun- dations are strong. The Report draws on the many Development strategies that emphasize inclusive- institutional innovations under way worldwide to ness, shared growth, and better governance will make illustrate the opportunities and the catalysts. Dura- great demands on leaders and communities in devel- ble solutions do not emerge from quick fixes. oping countries. The introduction of more welcom- ing trade, aid, migration, and knowledge-sharing Significant gainsuin development, but at costs regimes in industrial countries-to facilitate growth that cannot be sustained in developing countries-will make great demands on During the past 30 years, 2 billion people were added industrial countries' leaders and voters. Overcoming to the world's population, mostly in developing the inertia that hinders tackling these difficult prob- countries. Substantial gains in human welfare accom- lems-the fears and risks connected with unilateral panied this growth. The infant mortality rate in low- action-requires greater coordination. This coordina- and middle-income countries was cut in half, from tion would be facilitated by a bold common vision 11 percent of live births to 6 percent; illiteracy and a self-reinforcing, mutual, long-term commit- among adults fell from 47 to 25 percent, and for ment to a 50-year global accord. Such an accord women, from 57 to 32 percent. Real per capita in- would promise additional, more appropriate, and sus- come (in population-weighted 1995 dollars) rose tained assistance if reform deepens-and would pro- from $989 in 1980 to $1,354 in 2000. And many of vide assurance that reform will deepen if assistance is the world's people enjoy more freedoms and greater forthcoming. opportunities to participate in democratic processes The Report takes a 20 to 50 year perspective, rec- than they did three decades ago. ognizing the long lead times involved in social evolu- There have also been success stories in reducing tion and transformation. On this time scale, current pressures on the environment-for example, in pro- actions will shape the evolution of future technolo- tecting the ozone layer and curbing transboundary gies and future individual and social preferences. This acid rain. Urban air pollution is declining in Mexico OVERVIEW 3 City and in many of China's fast-growing cities. Most Seizing the opportunities for sustainable growth countries have phased lead out of gasoline. In just The next half-century offers an opportunity to trans- the past 10 years, access to sanitation in low- and form the global pattern of economic growth so as to middle-income countries rose from 44 to 52 percent. eliminate poverty and move to sustainable use of a But some social and environmental trends associ- broader portfolio of assets. ated with past development strategies in industrial For their livelihoods and well-being, people de- and developing countries are not sustainable. There pend on assets-natural and human-made; commu- are still 1.2 billion very poor people (those living on nal, individual, and public. All these assets need pro- less than $1 a day) despite the success in reducing this tection and encouragement in order to thrive. The number by at least 200 million in the past two de- institutions that provide these safeguards range from cades, even as overall population grew dramatically. the social capital and norms governing grazing and The average income in the richest 20 countries is 37 shared maintenance to such modern institutions as times that in the poorest 20-a ratio that has dou- property rights, fishing quotas, and forestry agencies. bled in the past 40 years, mainly because of lack of The soils, fish, and forests that benefit the poor di- growth in the poorest countries. In the 1990s, 46 rectly can be wastefully degraded when people lack countries were involved in conflict, primarily civil. security and a long perspective. In the same way, in- They included more than half of the poorest coun- vestment in machines and human capital needs the tries (17 out of 33). These conflicts have very high support of such institutions as credible laws and costs, destroying past development gains and leaving property rights to enhance confidence. The restraint a legacy of damaged assets and corrosive mistrust that required involves important commitment problems, impedes future progress. More than 1 billion people since thriving assets are tempting targets for appro- in low- and middle-income countries lack access to priation by individuals, firms, and governments and safe water, and 2 billion lack adequate sanitation, their officials. No set of actors is perfect. Institutions subjecting them to avoidable disease and premature must compensate. death. Environmental conditions have also deteriorated Drivers of change and transformation in many places across the planet and will worsen if Of the many interrelated drivers of socioeconomic present trends continue. Nearly 2 million hectares change and transformation, four stand out: scientific of land worldwide (23 percent of all cropland, pas- and technological innovation, and income growth, ture, forest, and woodland) have been degraded (both of which are ongoing processes), and popula- since the 1950s. Larger and thirstier populations tion growth, and urbanization (both of which are draw on finite freshwater resources, and local water one-time transitions). conflicts and the loss of freshwater ecosystems loom in some regions. By 2025, three-quarters of the * Scientific and technological innovation. Science and world's people may live within 100 kilometers of the technology have the potential to enable develop- sea, putting immense pressure on coastal ecosystems. ing countries to learn faster from each other and Two-thirds of all fisheries are exploited at or beyond from industrial countries-to improve the health their sustainable limits, and half or more of the and productivity of poor people, and to mitigate world's coral reefs may perish in this century. climate change and environmental degradation. Every decade, another 5 percent of tropical forests Whether they will do so depends in large measure is cleared. More than a third of terrestrial biodiver- on collective decisions about funding, implement- sity is squeezed into habitat fragments covering just ing, and disseminating technological innovation. 1.4 percent of the Earth's surface and could vanish * Incomegrowth. The projected growth of global in- if those fragments are lost. Humans are changing come of 3 percent a year over the next 50 years im- the world's climate, threatening coastal and island plies a fourfold increase in world gross domestic populations with rising sea levels and residents of product (GDP). This growth will require major in- semi-arid areas with desertification. And hundreds vestments in new human-made capital to expand of developing country cities have unhealthy air, caus- capacity and to replace existing capacity as it ages. ing premature deaths that would be preventable at a Making these investments (many of which are long modest cost. lived) more environmentally and socially responsible 4 OVERVIEW through appropriate investment criteria will go a long dents. The demographic and urban transitions way toward putting development on a more sustain- will also provide a major window of opportunity able path-an opportunity that must be seized. for reversing the expansion of agriculture into ter- o Demographic transition. It is likely that global pop- restrial ecosystems-but they will create stresses ulation will stabilize in this century at 9 billion to on freshwater and coastal ecosystems. Taking cor- 10 billion people-85 percent of this growth will rective action in anticipation of these known trends occur by 2050. This is an historic opportunity. can avoid future regrets. The slowing of population growth, and the growth in the proportion of the working-age population, Major challenges to be overcome in the next mean that governments that were struggling just 50years to keep up with increasing populations can move Problems and opportunities arise wherever people toward a focus on enhancing the quality of life for live-in mountain villages and dryland areas, in is- all their citizens. This opportunity depends, how- land and coastal communities, in rural and periur- ever, on ensuring that the people are educated and ban settlements, in towns and cities. The following have employment and investment opportunities. are some of the key challenges with local and global o Urban transition. By 2050, for the first time in his- implications that will face the world population over tory, the majority of people in developing coun- the next five decades. tries will be living in towns and cities (see figure 2). Well-functioning urban areas are engines of o Today, 1.3 billion people live in fragile and often productivity growth, employment, and social trans- remote rural ecosystems-semi-arid areas, moun- formation. The projected doubling of urban pop- tains, and forests-and their numbers are growing ulations will make it necessary to create anew the faster than the populations in more favored rural long-lived built environment of cities. The invest- areas. Will these people be able to overcome pov- ments in infrastructure and other capital will af- erty, improve their livelihoods, and adapt to new fect land use, public space and energy, and the opportunities-where necessary, by migrating quality of life of both urban and nonurban resi- out? Or will they be left to languish? Figure 2 Opportunities seized-or lost? Demographic and urban transitions Population Ibillionsi 9 - Global - population 8 - n Megacites 54 stabilizes 7- Ctes 29 El Towns 2 6 - 0 Other rural * Fragile lands 1 Rapid urban5 - 1 is *- growth 4- 3- 2 - = * Still many in 1 * 2 | 1 4 " E 5 " Ei5 Iareas° - I In I I I DTC OECD DTC OECD DTC OECD DTC OECD DTC OECD 1950 1970 2000 2030 2050 Note DTC refers to developing and transition countries, OECD refers to high-income industrial countries (and not all members of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) The numbers to the right of the columns refer