人民币汇率与外汇储备探析

人民币汇率与外汇储备探析 摘要: 汇率是国际金融的重要指标，是影响一个国家和地区对外贸易发展的重要因素。在我国，人民币汇率是中国政府在国民经济发展中对宏观经济进行调控的经济杠杆，也是实现和衡量我国经济内外均衡的重要工具。而人民币汇率的变动会受到诸多因素的影响，这些因素的共同作用决定了人民币汇率的走势。本文将从国内外等因素分析人民币汇率变动及其产生的影响，从而预测人民币汇率的走势和前景，为应对人民币汇率的变动提出建设性意见。 关键词:汇率 升值贬值 通货膨胀 外汇 改革 引言: 来自中国外汇交易中心的最新数据显示，5月22日人民币对美元汇率中间价报6.1904，较前一交易日继续小幅上涨7个基点,再创汇改以来新高。 2005年7月21日，我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。当日19时，美元对人民币交易价格调整为1美元兑8.11元人民币。自从人民币汇率机制改革以来，由于各种内外因素推动，人民币汇率持续走高。我们应客观看待人民币升值对我国经济产生的影响，积极应对，把握机遇，迎接挑战。 正文: 一、汇率概述 (一)汇率的概念: 汇率是两国之间货币折算的比率即为汇率。一个国家要与其他国家发生贸易或非贸易交往，必然要进行货币的支付。然而由于各个国家的经济发展水平不同，两国等面额的货币所代表的实际购物量并不相等，这就需要将两国货币按一定的比率进行折兑，双方交易才能够公平进行。 (二)影响汇率变动的主要因素: rational concept to allow network more in line with the objective laws of the future development of the city. 1.5.2 planning research areas: throughout the city, with an area of 13,000 km2, cover 2 districts and 8 counties of the city, including downtown and city levels. Planning range: main for City Center City, area for 1268km2, North to cases field Xiang, and Jin Pingzhen, and Gao Dian Zhen, and huangshazhen, and Liu home town North Township territories, East Nan XI Zhen, and Jiangnan East Township territories, South to horse home, and song home, and Li Zhuang Zhen, and South wide town, and Zhao field Street do South administrative border, West to baixizhen, and dish dam town, and thought slope Xiang West Township territories. 1.6 planning target 1.6.1 General target this items research to will Yibin city built Yangtze River upstream chuan Yunnan Guizhou combined Department Regional Center City, support city space of ordered expand for target, reference Yibin city integrated traffic planning (2014-2030 years) and the Yibin City City general planning (2013-2030 years) of research results, using science, and advanced of network research method, building more level, and more mode of track traffic system, Meet at different levels of the city's rail transportation needs and quality requirements. 1.6.2 target 1, refined urban development axis of urban development concepts, judgments, rail-guided downtown from solo to group-development of the network, from one Center to center city with axial development. 2, network planning adapted to Yibin City status and future development needs, demonstrates rational scale of rail transport to meet the needs 1.基本经济因素 (1)经济增长状况 经济增长率是预测汇率走势的中长期因素。一般来说，一国货币的汇率变动反映了该国经济的发展状况。高经济增长率会推动本国货币汇率上升，反之，则下跌。无论从何种角度看，经济增长状况始终是决定一国货币价值的根本因素。其原因在于:如果一国经济增长率较高，人们对宏观经济的良好运行状态产生信心，外国投资者必然踊跃前往该国投资，从而引起该国国际收支资本项目的收入增加，该国货币需求旺盛，币值自然上升。 (2)国际收支状况和外汇储备 在浮动汇率制下，市场供求决定汇率的变动，因此国际收支逆差将引起本币贬值，外币升值，即外汇汇率上升。反之，国际收支顺差则引起外汇汇率下降。由于国际收支平衡表中经常项目差额和资本项目差额不仅是国际收支状况的主要影响因素，还是外汇储备的重要影响因素，因此我们将选取经常项目差额和资本 (3)通货膨胀率 通货膨胀率是影响汇率走势的一个重要因素。通货膨胀既直接关系到一国货币的实际代表价值，有关系到一国商品的对外竞争力，以及人们对外汇市场的心理预期。一般来说，一国通货膨胀率高于其他国家，该国货币的购买力下降，单位货币的价值量减少，该国货币汇率下跌;反之，则上涨。在纸币流通下，两国货币之间的购买力的比较决定了两国货币的汇率。 (4)利率 利率是影响汇率走势的短期因素。利率作为政府部门调节宏观经济的政策工具，常常会随着经济的发展而变化。利率水平对外汇有着重要的影响，而且其影响非常灵敏。利率的高低直接影响金融资产的供求。一国利率上升使持有该种货币的利息收益增加，可能导致国际资本的流入，造成对该国货币的需求rational concept to allow network more in line with the objective laws of the future development of the city. 1.5.2 planning research areas: throughout the city, with an area of 13,000 km2, cover 2 districts and 8 counties of the city, including downtown and city levels. Planning range: main for City Center City, area for 1268km2, North to cases field Xiang, and Jin Pingzhen, and Gao Dian Zhen, and huangshazhen, and Liu home town North Township territories, East Nan XI Zhen, and Jiangnan East Township territories, South to horse home, and song home, and Li Zhuang Zhen, and South wide town, and Zhao field Street do South administrative border, West to baixizhen, and dish dam town, and thought slope Xiang West Township territories. 1.6 planning target 1.6.1 General target this items research to will Yibin city built Yangtze River upstream chuan Yunnan Guizhou combined Department Regional Center City, support city space of ordered expand for target, reference Yibin city integrated traffic planning (2014-2030 years) and the Yibin City City general planning (2013-2030 years) of research results, using science, and advanced of network research method, building more level, and more mode of track traffic system, Meet at different levels of the city's rail transportation needs and quality requirements. 1.6.2 target 1, refined urban development axis of urban development concepts, judgments, rail-guided downtown from solo to group-development of the network, from one Center to center city with axial development. 2, network planning adapted to Yibin City status and future development needs, demonstrates rational scale of rail transport to meet the needs 增加，从而引起本币汇率的上升;一国利率下降，会导致资本外流，增加对外币的需求，导致本币汇率下跌。 综上所述，外汇市场走势的基本经济因素间的关系错综复杂，但从长期来看，取决于经济增长率、通货膨胀水平和国家收支状况，而利率差异则是外汇市场短期波动的主要因素。 2.以中央银行干预、国家经济调控为代表的政策因素 (1)中央银行干预 中央银行干预外汇市场的手段主要有三种:一是直接入市干预外汇市场;二是调整本国的汇率政策和货币政策，以期通过利率变动来影响汇率;三是对资本流动实行外汇管制。对汇率走势产生影响的主要中央银行的货币政策 货币政策的主要形式是改变经济体系中货币的供应量。当货币供给量变化时，利率也随之变化。货币供应量增加，会造成货币贬值;货币供应量减少，会造成汇率升值。如果中央银行采取紧缩的货币政策，利率会上升，吸引各国游资流入，该国货币汇率坚挺。反之，货币贬值。再则，货币政策对经济增长率、物价水平、利率国际收支等会产生一定的影响，这必然影响到汇率的变动。 (2)财政政策 财政政策的主要形式是改变政府支出和税收水平。当政府支出增加时，对货币的需求也就增加了，引起汇率上升。当政府支出增加时，相应增加货币供给量，那么就会使货币贬值。一般而言，若减税，则市场货币流通量增加，货币趋跌;若增税，则货币看涨。 3.以政治、社会、新闻变动等为代表的社会政治影响因素 (1)政治因素 政治因素的内容很广，包括证据的稳定、政权的更迭、政变或战争、政府官员丑闻或下台、政策的连续性、政府的外交政策等。当今世界，政治与经济已经紧密联系在一起了，由于资本首先具有追求安全性的特征，因而政治因素对国际资本的流动具有直接和迅速的影响。通常政局不稳定。政策缺乏连续性rational concept to allow network more in line with the objective laws of the future development of the city. 1.5.2 planning research areas: throughout the city, with an area of 13,000 km2, cover 2 districts and 8 counties of the city, including downtown and city levels. Planning range: main for City Center City, area for 1268km2, North to cases field Xiang, and Jin Pingzhen, and Gao Dian Zhen, and huangshazhen, and Liu home town North Township territories, East Nan XI Zhen, and Jiangnan East Township territories, South to horse home, and song home, and Li Zhuang Zhen, and South wide town, and Zhao field Street do South administrative border, West to baixizhen, and dish dam town, and thought slope Xiang West Township territories. 1.6 planning target 1.6.1 General target this items research to will Yibin city built Yangtze River upstream chuan Yunnan Guizhou combined Department Regional Center City, support city space of ordered expand for target, reference Yibin city integrated traffic planning (2014-2030 years) and the Yibin City City general planning (2013-2030 years) of research results, using science, and advanced of network research method, building more level, and more mode of track traffic system, Meet at different levels of the city's rail transportation needs and quality requirements. 1.6.2 target 1, refined urban development axis of urban development concepts, judgments, rail-guided downtown from solo to group-development of the network, from one Center to center city with axial development. 2, network planning adapted to Yibin City status and future development needs, demonstrates rational scale of rail transport to meet the needs 的国家，本国投资者对未来把握不住方向，会减少投资以规避风险，外国投资者则会抽走投资，资本外流导致对该国货币的需求减少，汇率下跌。 (2)新闻因素 按对市场所起的作用，新闻可分为两种:一种是可预见的经济新闻，如美国经济统计数据的定期发布。在各种经济数据中，政府关于利率的调整以及政府的货币政策动向无疑是最重要的。另一种是不可预期的新闻。交易者若能迅速做出反应，先一步入市或出市，显然会获得收益或规避风险。 (三)汇率变动的主要影响: 1.人民币汇率变动对经济的影响 是连接国内外商品市场和金融市场的重要纽 汇率是一项重要的经济杠杆， 带。一方面，汇率受到多种经济因素的制约;另一方面，汇率的变动又会对社会经济生活的许多方面产生重要的影响。大体上来说，人民币汇率变动会对我国的进出口贸易、国际资本流动、外汇储备、国内物价水平、就业等产生重要影响。 2.对进出口贸易的影响 一般说来，本币汇率下降，即本币对外的币值贬低，能起到促进出口、抑制进口的作用;若本币汇率上升，即本币对外的币值上升，则有利于进口，不利于出口。 总的来说，近几年我国的人民币汇率是处于上升通道中的。国际金融危机以来，人民币升值对我国的进出口贸易产生了巨大的影响。人民币升值后，对我国的出口产生了两种结果。一是同样价格的商品在国际市场上和升值前相比折合更多的外币，促使国外销售价格上升，出口规模缩小。二是若国外销售价格不变，同等的创汇收入和升值前相比可以换回更少的货币，相当于出口利润减少，刺激出口规模的缩减。也就是说，人民币的升值，或者使出口商品价格上升，或者是出口商品利润减少，或者两者兼而有之。总之，我国作为进出口rational concept to allow network more in line with the objective laws of the future development of the city. 1.5.2 planning research areas: throughout the city, with an area of 13,000 km2, cover 2 districts and 8 counties of the city, including downtown and city levels. Planning range: main for City Center City, area for 1268km2, North to cases field Xiang, and Jin Pingzhen, and Gao Dian Zhen, and huangshazhen, and Liu home town North Township territories, East Nan XI Zhen, and Jiangnan East Township territories, South to horse home, and song home, and Li Zhuang Zhen, and South wide town, and Zhao field Street do South administrative border, West to baixizhen, and dish dam town, and thought slope Xiang West Township territories. 1.6 planning target 1.6.1 General target this items research to will Yibin city built Yangtze River upstream chuan Yunnan Guizhou combined Department Regional Center City, support city space of ordered expand for target, reference Yibin city integrated traffic planning (2014-2030 years) and the Yibin City City general planning (2013-2030 years) of research results, using science, and advanced of network research method, building more level, and more mode of track traffic system, Meet at different levels of the city's rail transportation needs and quality requirements. 1.6.2 target 1, refined urban development axis of urban development concepts, judgments, rail-guided downtown from solo to group-development of the network, from one Center to center city with axial development. 2, network planning adapted to Yibin City status and future development needs, demonstrates rational scale of rail transport to meet the needs 贸易大国，人民币升值对我国的出口带来了不利影响，而人民币升值对进口产生的影响则与出口相反。 3.对国内物价水平的影响 汇率变动对国内物价水平的影响非常复杂。汇率变动既影响贸易品的价格，也影响非贸易品的价格，至于它对物价总指数影响的程度则取决于进口商品和原在国民生产总值中所占的比重。 人民币升值后，进口商品的价格会直接下降，会刺激进口商品的增加。进口商品和以进口商品为原材料的商品价格的下降会对国内物价下降带来一定的影响。我国作为进口大国，从这个角度上看，人民币的升值对抑制国内通货膨胀会有一定的积极意义。同时，人民币的升值不仅通过贸易品和非贸易品影响国内的物价水平，也会通过各种传导机制影响国内物价水平。从生产成本机制上看，我国作为加工贸易大国，出口商品对进口原材料的依赖程度较大，进口商品价格的下降会直接导致出口企业生产成本的下降，但由于出口商品在国外的相对价格上升，国际市场对出口商的需求下降，从而导致出口商品的下降。 4.对国内就业的影响 汇率的变动既然能够影响进出口、物价和资本流出入，不难理解，汇率的变动对就业也会产生重要作用。一般说来，一国货币升值后，由于有利于进口而不利于出口，相当于国际市场对本国商品的需求下降，出口产业占一国产业比重较大的国家，就业形势将趋于严峻。 国际金融危机以来，西方发达国家需求减少，经济发展几近停滞，一直给我国施压，让人民币升值。人民币升值对我国的经济发展具有一定的正面效应，但是更重要的是，我国作为进出口贸易大国，出口带动的就业在国民就业中所占的比重非常高，如果在金融危机时期，国际市场需求下降、购买力下降的情况下，再让人民币升值，很多出口企业都会破产倒闭，就业将遭遇严峻的打击。 5.对外汇储备的影响 rational concept to allow network more in line with the objective laws of the future development of the city. 1.5.2 planning research areas: throughout the city, with an area of 13,000 km2, cover 2 districts and 8 counties of the city, including downtown and city levels. Planning range: main for City Center City, area for 1268km2, North to cases field Xiang, and Jin Pingzhen, and Gao Dian Zhen, and huangshazhen, and Liu home town North Township territories, East Nan XI Zhen, and Jiangnan East Township territories, South to horse home, and song home, and Li Zhuang Zhen, and South wide town, and Zhao field Street do South administrative border, West to baixizhen, and dish dam town, and thought slope Xiang West Township territories. 1.6 planning target 1.6.1 General target this items research to will Yibin city built Yangtze River upstream chuan Yunnan Guizhou combined Department Regional Center City, support city space of ordered expand for target, reference Yibin city integrated traffic planning (2014-2030 years) and the Yibin City City general planning (2013-2030 years) of research results, using science, and advanced of network research method, building more level, and more mode of track traffic system, Meet at different levels of the city's rail transportation needs and quality requirements. 1.6.2 target 1, refined urban development axis of urban development concepts, judgments, rail-guided downtown from solo to group-development of the network, from one Center to center city with axial development. 2, network planning adapted to Yibin City status and future development needs, demonstrates rational scale of rail transport to meet the needs 汇率变动对外汇储备的影响主要体现在两个方面。一是通过影响国际收支状况直接影响外汇储备的规模。人民币升值易于形成贸易逆差，同时资本输入的减少和输出的增加又易于形成资本项目逆差，这将减少我国的外汇储备。二是储备货币的汇率变化直接影响外汇储备的构成和实际价值。 二、人民币汇率现状分析 从2005年7月汇改后美元对人民币交易价格为1美元兑8.11元人民币到2013年5月22日人民币对美元汇率中间价报6.1904。可看出人民币的总体走势为对内贬值对外升值。 (一)原因 1.对内贬值: 一个国家的货币对内价值的高低是通过购买力来体现的，而衡量购买力的是一般物价水平指数(通货膨胀率)。我国物价指数持续攀升，通货膨胀压力显著，具体分析,我国现阶段通胀压力的产生主要有以下的原因。 2011年02月17日中国国家外汇管理局发布了第一个跨境资金流动监测报告，首度披露了中国官方对“热钱”的估算数据: rational concept to allow network more in line with the objective laws of the future development of the city. 1.5.2 planning research areas: throughout the city, with an area of 13,000 km2, cover 2 districts and 8 counties of the city, including downtown and city levels. Planning range: main for City Center City, area for 1268km2, North to cases field Xiang, and Jin Pingzhen, and Gao Dian Zhen, and huangshazhen, and Liu home town North Township territories, East Nan XI Zhen, and Jiangnan East Township territories, South to horse home, and song home, and Li Zhuang Zhen, and South wide town, and Zhao field Street do South administrative border, West to baixizhen, and dish dam town, and thought slope Xiang West Township territories. 1.6 planning target 1.6.1 General target this items research to will Yibin city built Yangtze River upstream chuan Yunnan Guizhou combined Department Regional Center City, support city space of ordered expand for target, reference Yibin city integrated traffic planning (2014-2030 years) and the Yibin City City general planning (2013-2030 years) of research results, using science, and advanced of network research method, building more level, and more mode of track traffic system, Meet at different levels of the city's rail transportation needs and quality requirements. 1.6.2 target 1, refined urban development axis of urban development concepts, judgments, rail-guided downtown from solo to group-development of the network, from one Center to center city with axial development. 2, network planning adapted to Yibin City status and future development needs, demonstrates rational scale of rail transport to meet the needs 抛多少热钱，央行就得要兑换多少，而央行的兑换，实际是靠新发行人民币换来的。央行回收的外汇愈多，发行的人民币就愈多，人民币当然贬值。 2.对外升值: 人民币升值是相对于其他货币而言的，就好像1元人民币可以买到更多外币，这种升值在国内市场基本无法显示。 人民币升值这一现象是多个因素、各种力量共同压力下的产生的。 (1)中国是经济增长最快的国家 2013年世界经济复苏步伐明显放缓，全年经济增长速度仅为3%左右，比2012年的3.8%有大幅度降低，其中发达国家增长约1.2%，美国、日本分别增长2.2%和1.2%，欧元区为-0.5%，主要新兴经济体的增速也出现明显放缓。而中国通过稳定投资增长、优化投资结构，扩大结构性减税力度、适当降低增值税税率等措施实现经济稳中求进，经济增长在7.5%左右。随着我国经济的实力不断增强，有更多的国家愿意接受人民币，所以人民币也随之强势起来，对人民币的需求也在增加着，但人民币的供给是一定的，这就使得人民币价值增高了。 (2)中国是世界上第二大贸易大国 rational concept to allow network more in line with the objective laws of the future development of the city. 1.5.2 planning research areas: throughout the city, with an area of 13,000 km2, cover 2 districts and 8 counties of the city, including downtown and city levels. Planning range: main for City Center City, area for 1268km2, North to cases field Xiang, and Jin Pingzhen, and Gao Dian Zhen, and huangshazhen, and Liu home town North Township territories, East Nan XI Zhen, and Jiangnan East Township territories, South to horse home, and song home, and Li Zhuang Zhen, and South wide town, and Zhao field Street do South administrative border, West to baixizhen, and dish dam town, and thought slope Xiang West Township territories. 1.6 planning target 1.6.1 General target this items research to will Yibin city built Yangtze River upstream chuan Yunnan Guizhou combined Department Regional Center City, support city space of ordered expand for target, reference Yibin city integrated traffic planning (2014-2030 years) and the Yibin City City general planning (2013-2030 years) of research results, using science, and advanced of network research method, building more level, and more mode of track traffic system, Meet at different levels of the city's rail transportation needs and quality requirements. 1.6.2 target 1, refined urban development axis of urban development concepts, judgments, rail-guided downtown from solo to group-development of the network, from one Center to center city with axial development. 2, network planning adapted to Yibin City status and future development needs, demonstrates rational scale of rail transport to meet the needs 我国的国际贸易上出口大于进口，外资流入大于本国资本输出，即经常项目顺差和资本项目的双顺差，使我国的国际货币储备持续增长，这意味着我国外汇市场上外汇供给大于需求,因此外币将贬值,而人民币必将升值。 (3)中国是世界第一大吸收国外投资国家。 2013年1-3月，全国新批设立外商投资企业4822家，同比下降10.36%;实际使用外资金额299.05亿美元，同比增长1.44%。 (3)中国是世界第一大外汇储备国，在国际金融市场上有举足轻重的地位。 外汇储备 40000 30000 20000储备量 亿美元10000 0 20052006200720082009201020112012年份 rational concept to allow network more in line with the objective laws of the future development of the city. 1.5.2 planning research areas: throughout the city, with an area of 13,000 km2, cover 2 districts and 8 counties of the city, including downtown and city levels. Planning range: main for City Center City, area for 1268km2, North to cases field Xiang, and Jin Pingzhen, and Gao Dian Zhen, and huangshazhen, and Liu home town North Township territories, East Nan XI Zhen, and Jiangnan East Township territories, South to horse home, and song home, and Li Zhuang Zhen, and South wide town, and Zhao field Street do South administrative border, West to baixizhen, and dish dam town, and thought slope Xiang West Township territories. 1.6 planning target 1.6.1 General target this items research to will Yibin city built Yangtze River upstream chuan Yunnan Guizhou combined Department Regional Center City, support city space of ordered expand for target, reference Yibin city integrated traffic planning (2014-2030 years) and the Yibin City City general planning (2013-2030 years) of research results, using science, and advanced of network research method, building more level, and more mode of track traffic system, Meet at different levels of the city's rail transportation needs and quality requirements. 1.6.2 target 1, refined urban development axis of urban development concepts, judgments, rail-guided downtown from solo to group-development of the network, from one Center to center city with axial development. 2, network planning adapted to Yibin City status and future development needs, demonstrates rational scale of rail transport to meet the needs (5)中国是世界上第二大能源消费国，也是大三大能源生产国 随着经济规模的不断扩大，中国的能源消费呈持续上升趋势。1957--1989年中国能源消费总量从9644万吨标准煤(SCE)增加到96934万吨，增加了9倍。1989--1999年，中国能源消费，从96394万吨标准煤增加到122000万吨，增长26%。中国远景一次能源资源总储量估计为4万亿吨标准煤。 (二)当前影响人民币汇率的现实因素 一国汇率的变动是诸多因素共同作用的结果。前面从理论方面已经对一国汇率变动的因素做了一个梳理。当前，还有一些现实的因素直接影响着人民币的汇率变动。 1.美国量化宽松政策(OE4) 2012年12月13日，美联储宣布推出第四轮量化宽松QE4，每月采购450亿美元国债，替代扭曲操作，加上QE3每月400亿美元的的宽松额度，联储每月资产采购额达到850亿美元。除了量化宽松的猛药之外，美联储保持了目前零利率的政策，把利率保持在0到0.25%的极低水平。 中国作为全球第一大外汇储备国和第一大对美出口国及债权国，是美国“量化宽松”政策的主要针对目标及其负面“溢出效应”的主要承受者。这主要表现在四个方面: (1)是中国美元资产严重缩水。现在中国外汇储备超过2.6万亿美元，其中美元储备约占70%，中国购买美国国债超过9000亿美元。美国出台“量化宽松”举措使美元大幅贬值，导致中国的美元资产损失严重。 (2)是加剧中国的通货膨胀。美国此举推高了国际大宗商品的价格。受输入性通胀影响，本来就较高的中国通胀率在2012年以后进一步升高。同时，中国支付进口的费用也显著增加。如因国际油价上涨，中国今后每年进口石油需多支出几十亿美元。 rational concept to allow network more in line with the objective laws of the future development of the city. 1.5.2 planning research areas: throughout the city, with an area of 13,000 km2, cover 2 districts and 8 counties of the city, including downtown and city levels. Planning range: main for City Center City, area for 1268km2, North to cases field Xiang, and Jin Pingzhen, and Gao Dian Zhen, and huangshazhen, and Liu home town North Township territories, East Nan XI Zhen, and Jiangnan East Township territories, South to horse home, and song home, and Li Zhuang Zhen, and South wide town, and Zhao field Street do South administrative border, West to baixizhen, and dish dam town, and thought slope Xiang West Township territories. 1.6 planning target 1.6.1 General target this items research to will Yibin city built Yangtze River upstream chuan Yunnan Guizhou combined Department Regional Center City, support city space of ordered expand for target, reference Yibin city integrated traffic planning (2014-2030 years) and the Yibin City City general planning (2013-2030 years) of research results, using science, and advanced of network research method, building more level, and more mode of track traffic system, Meet at different levels of the city's rail transportation needs and quality requirements. 1.6.2 target 1, refined urban development axis of urban development concepts, judgments, rail-guided downtown from solo to group-development of the network, from one Center to center city with axial development. 2, network planning adapted to Yibin City status and future development needs, demonstrates rational scale of rail transport to meet the needs (3)是承受更多国际热钱流入的风险。专家估计，美国这次增发美元中的40%将通过各种渠道流入中国。大量涌入的热钱将加剧中国资本市场资产的泡沫化，给中国经济留下恶果和隐患。 2.中国的巨额外汇储备 (1)有利影响: 超适度的外汇储备如果可以加以积极运用，对我国而言可以产生积极影响。可配合用于国家可持续发展战略的实施，可用于解决经济中的短期紧迫问题，同样也可用于解决,,年改革开放以来多年想解决尚未解决的深层次问题。 ?购买海外石油及其他稀缺资源 ?参股收购相应海外企业; ?尽可能购买有助于培育国内自主创新的先进技术、设备;潜心安排对重要领域跨国企业包括跨国金融机构的参股收购等 (2)不利影响 ?高额的外汇储备，增加了人民币汇率升值压力，导致热钱大量涌入，容易引发资产价格泡沫，诱发汇率战。 为维持汇率的稳定，央行会大量购进外币，抛售本币，再加上国际社会对人民币的升值预期，又会带来国际游资的大量涌入，这无疑又使得外汇储备进一步增加，从而进一步强化了本币的升值预期，同时“热钱”的大量进入，投资于股票和房地产等，不仅增加了央行金融调控的难度，也成为推动房价节节走高的一个重要动因。 ?高额外汇储备会削弱我国产品的出口竞争力，影响出口的增长，从而对就业和保持经济持续、快速增长带来很大的负面影响。如果不允许，人民币升值，那么它将会引起许多贸易伙伴的不满，从而导致如反倾销调查之类的贸易摩擦，不断上演，不利于形成我国经济持续发展的有利的国际环境。 (3)我国高额外汇储备的合理利用和积极管理政策建议 rational concept to allow network more in line with the objective laws of the future development of the city. 1.5.2 planning research areas: throughout the city, with an area of 13,000 km2, cover 2 districts and 8 counties of the city, including downtown and city levels. Planning range: main for City Center City, area for 1268km2, North to cases field Xiang, and Jin Pingzhen, and Gao Dian Zhen, and huangshazhen, and Liu home town North Township territories, East Nan XI Zhen, and Jiangnan East Township territories, South to horse home, and song home, and Li Zhuang Zhen, and South wide town, and Zhao field Street do South administrative border, West to baixizhen, and dish dam town, and thought slope Xiang West Township territories. 1.6 planning target 1.6.1 General target this items research to will Yibin city built Yangtze River upstream chuan Yunnan Guizhou combined Department Regional Center City, support city space of ordered expand for target, reference Yibin city integrated traffic planning (2014-2030 years) and the Yibin City City general planning (2013-2030 years) of research results, using science, and advanced of network research method, building more level, and more mode of track traffic system, Meet at different levels of the city's rail transportation needs and quality requirements. 1.6.2 target 1, refined urban development axis of urban development concepts, judgments, rail-guided downtown from solo to group-development of the network, from one Center to center city with axial development. 2, network planning adapted to Yibin City status and future development needs, demonstrates rational scale of rail transport to meet the needs ?鼓励资本输出，控制资本输入，减轻外汇占款的压力。 ?引入外资要有战略性安排，应重视技术与管理的引进，适当控制外资进入的速度，调整外资的机构; ?适时增加黄金储备份额; ?加快外汇管理体制的改革，由强制结售汇制向自愿结售汇制转变。 ?转变经济增长方式，协调内外均衡; ?用外汇储备成立一个战略投资基金，主要投资一些不可再生的战略资源，用于促进我国经济的长远发展;适度调整外汇储备结构，推进外汇储备的多元化。 三、人民币汇率改革 (一)历程 1953年~1973年，人民币与美元有正式的挂钩，汇率保持在1:2.46的水平上。由于当时境内外贸很少，人民币汇率意义不大。 1973年，石油危机，世界物价水平上涨，西方国家普遍实行浮动汇率制，汇率波动频繁。为了适应国际汇率制度的转变与国际主要货币汇率变动带来的不利影响，人民币汇率采用“一篮子货币”加权平均计算法进行调整。1980年的汇率调整为1:1.50。 1980~1994年，境内有双重汇率制度。1981~1984年，初步实行双重汇率制度，即除官方汇率外，另行规定一种适用进出口贸易结算和外贸单位经济效益核算的贸易外汇内部结算价格，汇率固定在1:2.80的水平。 1985~1991年4月，复归单一汇率制度。这阶段，随着留成外汇的增加，调剂外汇的交易量越来越大，价格也越来越高。因此，名义上是单一汇率，实际上又形成了新的双重汇率。 rational concept to allow network more in line with the objective laws of the future development of the city. 1.5.2 planning research areas: throughout the city, with an area of 13,000 km2, cover 2 districts and 8 counties of the city, including downtown and city levels. Planning range: main for City Center City, area for 1268km2, North to cases field Xiang, and Jin Pingzhen, and Gao Dian Zhen, and huangshazhen, and Liu home town North Township territories, East Nan XI Zhen, and Jiangnan East Township territories, South to horse home, and song home, and Li Zhuang Zhen, and South wide town, and Zhao field Street do South administrative border, West to baixizhen, and dish dam town, and thought slope Xiang West Township territories. 1.6 planning target 1.6.1 General target this items research to will Yibin city built Yangtze River upstream chuan Yunnan Guizhou combined Department Regional Center City, support city space of ordered expand for target, reference Yibin city integrated traffic planning (2014-2030 years) and the Yibin City City general planning (2013-2030 years) of research results, using science, and advanced of network research method, building more level, and more mode of track traffic system, Meet at different levels of the city's rail transportation needs and quality requirements. 1.6.2 target 1, refined urban development axis of urban development concepts, judgments, rail-guided downtown from solo to group-development of the network, from one Center to center city with axial development. 2, network planning adapted to Yibin City status and future development needs, demonstrates rational scale of rail transport to meet the needs 1991年4月~1993年底，官方汇率数十次小幅度调低，但仍赶不上出口换汇成本和外汇调剂价的变化。这时期人民币汇率制度演化与改革的特点是:官方汇率和调剂市场汇率并存、官方汇率逐渐向下调整。 1994年，人民币与美元非正式挂钩，汇率只能在1:8.27至1:8.28元之间浮动。 2005年7月21日19时，央行宣布美元兑人民币官方汇率由8.27调整为8.11，人民币升幅约为2.1%。央行同时还宣布废除原先盯住单一美元的货币政策，开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。 2008年，人民币自2005年汇改以来已升值了19%，但受金融危机的影响，人民币停止了升值走势。 2010年6月19日，央行决定进一步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革，增强人民币汇率弹性 (二)未来改革建议 1.适时调整汇率水平和汇率制度 如果人民币不升值，我国还将持续扩大贸易顺差，贸易顺差的结果就是我国的外汇储备在占全球1/3的情况下还将继续增加，外汇储备的过量增加又会导致流动性过剩，流动性过剩的直接结果就是经济过热，从而产生泡沫经济。我们要让人民币的汇率始终反映我国的经济基本面，同时适时调整我国的汇率制度，对于我国宏观经济的平稳健康增长具有重要意义。我国外汇管理体制的总体目标是实现人民币的自由兑换和国际化，在实现这个目标的过程中，关键一点是实现人民币汇率的市场化，只有市场形成的汇率才能成为对各相关领域起有效调控作用的重要经济杠杆。 2.转变对外贸易的传统观念 长期以来，受传统观念的影响，我国一直存在片面追求贸易顺差，片面追求出口创汇的倾向。近些年来的持续贸易顺差造成了我国当前的巨额外汇储备，巨额外汇储备已经成为一个烫手的山芋，扔掉不可能，拿着又烫手。 rational concept to allow network more in line with the objective laws of the future development of the city. 1.5.2 planning research areas: throughout the city, with an area of 13,000 km2, cover 2 districts and 8 counties of the city, including downtown and city levels. Planning range: main for City Center City, area for 1268km2, North to cases field Xiang, and Jin Pingzhen, and Gao Dian Zhen, and huangshazhen, and Liu home town North Township territories, East Nan XI Zhen, and Jiangnan East Township territories, South to horse home, and song home, and Li Zhuang Zhen, and South wide town, and Zhao field Street do South administrative border, West to baixizhen, and dish dam town, and thought slope Xiang West Township territories. 1.6 planning target 1.6.1 General target this items research to will Yibin city built Yangtze River upstream chuan Yunnan Guizhou combined Department Regional Center City, support city space of ordered expand for target, reference Yibin city integrated traffic planning (2014-2030 years) and the Yibin City City general planning (2013-2030 years) of research results, using science, and advanced of network research method, building more level, and more mode of track traffic system, Meet at different levels of the city's rail transportation needs and quality requirements. 1.6.2 target 1, refined urban development axis of urban development concepts, judgments, rail-guided downtown from solo to group-development of the network, from one Center to center city with axial development. 2, network planning adapted to Yibin City status and future development needs, demonstrates rational scale of rail transport to meet the needs 为应对国际社会对人民币升值的压力，我们应转变对外贸易的传统观念，适当增加进口，升级出口产品结构，争取实现贸易顺差向贸易平衡转变。事实上，当今世界各国之间的贸易竞争，已不只限于贸易数量和贸易额的竞争，而是贸易过程中能不能获得最大限度的高额利润。从世界经济的发展历程来看，发达国家的繁荣稳定常常是建立在发展中国家的廉价商品出口基础之上。 3.综合处理人民币汇率升值影响物价水平所产生的问题 人民币汇率升值对我国物价水平所产生的问题，我们必须进行综合考量。不能简单的把当前的通货膨胀归结于人民币币值的低估，从而寄希望于通过人民币的升值来缓解当前的通货膨胀。人民币的对外升值对于抑制通货膨胀的作用是有限的，而对于整个国民经济的影响却是整体的。因此，要综合处理人民币汇率升值影响物价水平所产生的问题，以减轻人民币升值后对经济造成的负面影响。 结论: 在当前汇率制度改革的过渡期，世界经济失衡和国内过多的外汇储备，对中国经济的稳定发展肯定不利，但只要我们政策调整得当采取正确有力的应对措施，严峻挑战可转化为重大机遇。 参考文献: [1]张衍清:影响汇率变动的短期因素[A].COMMERCIAL RESEAPCH,2002 [2]雷超超 王 琰:人民币汇率影响的因素探讨[A].财经界,2007 [3]贺昌政 任佩瑜 俞 海:人民币汇率影响因素研究[J].管理世界,2004 年第5 期 [4]杨 帆:人民币汇率稳定的理由[M].管理科学文摘,2002 rational concept to allow network more in line with the objective laws of the future development of the city. 1.5.2 planning research areas: throughout the city, with an area of 13,000 km2, cover 2 districts and 8 counties of the city, including downtown and city levels. Planning range: main for City Center City, area for 1268km2, North to cases field Xiang, and Jin Pingzhen, and Gao Dian Zhen, and huangshazhen, and Liu home town North Township territories, East Nan XI Zhen, and Jiangnan East Township territories, South to horse home, and song home, and Li Zhuang Zhen, and South wide town, and Zhao field Street do South administrative border, West to baixizhen, and dish dam town, and thought slope Xiang West Township territories. 1.6 planning target 1.6.1 General target this items research to will Yibin city built Yangtze River upstream chuan Yunnan Guizhou combined Department Regional Center City, support city space of ordered expand for target, reference Yibin city integrated traffic planning (2014-2030 years) and the Yibin City City general planning (2013-2030 years) of research results, using science, and advanced of network research method, building more level, and more mode of track traffic system, Meet at different levels of the city's rail transportation needs and quality requirements. 1.6.2 target 1, refined urban development axis of urban development concepts, judgments, rail-guided downtown from solo to group-development of the network, from one Center to center city with axial development. 2, network planning adapted to Yibin City status and future development needs, demonstrates rational scale of rail transport to meet the needs [5] 罗红兰.谈汇率变动对经济的影响[j].山西财税.2005，(04). [6] 陈雅素.汇率变动对经济的影响[j].消费导刊. 2007，(12). [7]中国经济时报 《美国“量化宽松”政策及其对中国的影响》 2011 rational concept to allow network more in line with the objective laws of the future development of the city. 1.5.2 planning research areas: throughout the city, with an area of 13,000 km2, cover 2 districts and 8 counties of the city, including downtown and city levels. Planning range: main for City Center City, area for 1268km2, North to cases field Xiang, and Jin Pingzhen, and Gao Dian Zhen, and huangshazhen, and Liu home town North Township territories, East Nan XI Zhen, and Jiangnan East Township territories, South to horse home, and song home, and Li Zhuang Zhen, and South wide town, and Zhao field Street do South administrative border, West to baixizhen, and dish dam town, and thought slope Xiang West Township territories. 1.6 planning target 1.6.1 General target this items research to will Yibin city built Yangtze River upstream chuan Yunnan Guizhou combined Department Regional Center City, support city space of ordered expand for target, reference Yibin city integrated traffic planning (2014-2030 years) and the Yibin City City general planning (2013-2030 years) of research results, using science, and advanced of network research method, building more level, and more mode of track traffic system, Meet at different levels of the city's rail transportation needs and quality requirements. 1.6.2 target 1, refined urban development axis of urban development concepts, judgments, rail-guided downtown from solo to group-development of the network, from one Center to center city with axial development. 2, network planning adapted to Yibin City status and future development needs, demonstrates rational scale of rail transport to meet the needs