中信证券-Ａ股市场策略周报：平心静气等待交易机会-120827

䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ �� Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼�ㄪ⬹㒘� 䚺�ᕀ� ⬉䆱˖021-68768317 䚂ӊ˖li_bin@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010512050003 ߬⌽⊶� ⬉䆱˖0755-23835395 䚂ӊ˖lhb@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010510120038 ⾺෍᱃ ⬉䆱˖021-68768323 䚂ӊ˖qinpeijing@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010512050004 ᴼ�ᯩ� ⬉䆱˖010-60836755 䚂ӊ˖xiny@citics.com ᠻϮ䆕к㓪ো˖S1010512060002 㘨㋏Ҏ˖߬�ᮍ� ⬉䆱˖010-60836736 䚂ӊ˖fangliu@citics.com � ᨬ㽕˖� � ೑ݙᅣ㾖˖∛Єࠊ䗴Ϯ PMI ໻ᐙಲ㨑ˈЁ༂ձ✊᮴ࡼѢ㹋ˈഄᮍᬓᑰ៪া㛑⬏佐ܙ伹DŽϞ਼݀Ꮧⱘ 8 ᳜ӑ∛ЄЁ೑ࠊ䗴Ϯ PMI߱ؐ䎠㟇 47.8ˈᰒ⼎೑ݙ㒣⌢ӕ〇ಲछⱘᣛᷛҡ᳾ߎ⦄ˈࠊ䗴ϮЁ⡍߿ᰃЁᇣ ӕϮⱘ㒣㧹ձ✊↨䕗ೄ䲒ˈ㗠໻ӕϮⱘᚙމгᑊϡФ㾖DŽे֓བℸˈ೼᠓ഄѻ䇗᥻㑶㒓䴶ࠡˈᬓㄪ䗝ᢽ བሹ㭘ބˈ೼ᮄ乚ඳ䖯ϔℹ໻ᐙᬒᵒৃ㛑ᗻϡ໻ˈ಴ℸⷁᳳݙⱘᬓㄪⳟ⚍㨑೼њഄᮍᬓᑰሖ䴶DŽԚᰃˈ 䖭ϔ⊶ഄᮍ⠜ⱘĀಯϛғā᳔㒜ᕜ᳝ৃ㛑াᰃ೼ᬓㄪೄሔПϟഄᮍᬓᑰ⬏佐ܙ伹㗠Ꮖˈ೼Ⳃࠡⱘᬓㄪ੠ 䌘䞥⦃๗ϟᘤᇚ䲒ҹܥ⦄DŽ� � ⍋໪˖ᖋᏠዄӮ᮴䖯ሩˈ๲䭓य़࡯ᇚᰒ䴆ˈQE3乘ᳳড໡ˈ9᳜ӑ⍋໪亢䰽䗤ℹϞछDŽᖋ೑੠Ꮰ㜞ᘏ⧚ Ӯ᰸≵᳝ᮄⱘ䖯ሩˈ໻໻ԢѢПࠡᏖഎⳌᇍФ㾖ⱘ乘ᳳDŽᖋ೑ᘏ⧚咬ܟᇨᑊ≵᳝ᯢ⹂㸼⼎ĀᬒᆑᬥࡽᏠ 㜞ⱘᴵӊāˈ Ⳍডˈཌྷ䅸Ўᖙ乏ㄝࠄ 9᳜ӑ೑䰙ϝᮍᬥࡽᴎᵘⱘ᡹ਞߎৄৢᠡ㛑԰ߎއᅮDŽ㕢೑ᮍ䴶ˈড ໡ⱘ㒣⌢᭄᥂ৃ㛑ҸᏖഎᇍ㕢㘨ټ QE3᥼㸠ⱘ乘ᳳߎ⦄ᨛᨚDŽᭈԧϞ ៥ˈӀ㓈ᣕ 9᳜ӑ⍋໪亢䰽䗤ℹϞ छⱘ߸ᮁDŽ � ⌕ࡼᗻ䆘Ԅ˖໽䞣䗚ಲ䌁㗠䴲䰡ޚ Āˈ༈⮯ए༈㛮⮯ए㛮āᓣⱘ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪ᳾㛑ҢḍᴀϞ㓧㾷Ꮦഎⱘ䌘䞥 य़࡯ˈ㙵Ꮦഎݙ䌘䞥䴶Ⳍᇍᑇ䴭DŽЎњ㓧㾷䖥ᳳ䌘䞥㋻ᓴǃ߽⥛Ϟ㸠ⱘ⢊މˈ঴ࡴ᥹䖥᳜᳿㗗Ḍᯊ⚍ˈ Ϟ਼༂㸠ⱘ䗚ಲ䌁㾘῵偸๲ˈϢ៥Ӏࠡᳳ߸ᮁϔ㟈ˈ༂㸠䗝ᢽњ䗚ಲ䌁ܜ㸠ˈ䰡ޚᢽᴎⱘᮍᓣDŽᏖഎ䌘 䞥ᮍ䴶ˈկ㒭Ϟˈ⬅Ѣ䖥ᳳ⃻㕢㒣⌢᭄᥂㡃དˈܼ⧗亢䰽أདᢀछˈ⛁䪅⌕ߎ೑ݙ㙵Ꮦ䗳ᑺ៪ᇚᬒ㓧˗ 䳔∖Ϟˈ8᳜㟇Ҟ IPOᅵᡍ᭄䞣Ў䳊ˈ㗠 9᳜䰤ଂ㙵㾷⽕᭄䞣䕗 8᳜ᇣᐙಲ䇗DŽ� � ᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂˖ᑇᖗ䴭⇨ㄝᕙѸᯧᴎӮDŽ∛ЄЁ೑ࠊ䗴Ϯ PMI߱ؐ䎠㟇 47.8ˈݡ⃵ᠧय़њ㒣⌢㾕ᑩ໡㢣ⱘ乘 ᳳˈ੐৕އㄪሖࡴ໻ᬓㄪࠎ▔࡯ᑺໄজ䍋ˈԚᰃᰒ✊Ё༂೼ᬒᵒᬓㄪϞձ✊䗝ᢽ᮴ࡼѢ㹋ˈ⬏佐ܙ伹ᓣ ⱘഄᮍ⠜“ಯϛғ”ߌᰒഄᮍᬓᑰⱘ᳝ᖗ᮴࡯DŽᘏⱘᴹ䇈ˈᏖഎᇍѢᅣ㾖㾕ᑩ໡㢣੠ᬒᵒᬓㄪࡴⷕⱘ乘ᳳ Ꮖ㒣䍞ᴹ䍞ᔅˈѺᑇᖗ䴭⇨ഄ䗝ᢽ᥹ফњ䖭ϔ⦄ᅲDŽ㗠എݙ䌘䞥䴶Ⳍᇍᑇ䴭ˈ乘䅵ᄬᄬ䞣䌘䞥೼Ӵၦǃए 㥃ǃ䕃ӊǃ⬉ᄤㄝᇥ᭄ᵓഫϞᢅಶপᱪⱘᔅᑇ㸵⢊ᗕձ✊ৃҹ㓈ᣕDŽ᳾ᴹᠧ⸈䖭ϔᑇ㸵ⱘڀ࣪಴㋴ৃ㛑 ᰃ˖˄ 1 Q˅E3乘ᳳ㨑ぎঞ 9᳜ӑ⃻ܗऎ亢䰽಴㋴㒻㓁থ䝉˗˄ 2 ೑˅ݙ㒣⌢ᲈ䴆ߎ㒣⌢๲䗳ሖ䴶П໪亢䰽ˈ ՟བֵᠬ䖱㑺亢䰽ᲈ䴆ǃ䫊㸠ണ䋺⥛▔๲ㄝㄝDŽ䖭⾡ᚙމϟৃ㛑䖢ᴹᏖഎ䍙䎠ঞ៤䭓㙵ⱘ㸹䎠DŽ䖭⾡ᚙ މϔᮺথ⫳ˈᇚӮᦤկҞᑈ↨䕗䲒ᕫⱘѸᯧᴎӮˈ⡍߿ᰃ݇⊼ᯢᑈϮ㒽乘ᳳձ✊᳝䕗ᖿ๲䭓ⱘए㥃ǃ亳 ક佂᭭ǃӴၦǃ䕃ӊǃ⬉ᄤㄝᵓഫЁ㞾ϟ㗠Ϟⱘ䗝㙵ᴎӮDŽ಴ℸˈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹Ϟ៥Ӏⱘᓎ䆂ᰃᇍᔧࠡ㒘ড় ҹϮ㒽Ўᇐ৥࡯∖এӾᄬⳳˈৠᯊᑇᖗ䴭⇨ഄㄝᕙѸᯧᴎӮDŽ� ᑇᖗ䴭⇨ㄝᕙѸᯧᴎӮ� 2012ᑈ 8᳜ 27᮹ 䆕ࠌⷨお᡹ਞgA㙵ㄪ⬹gᅮᳳ᡹ਞ A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹਼᡹ A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹਼᡹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ ⳂⳂ ᔩ Ꮦഎಲ乒˖A㙵ᔅ࢓䳛㤵ˈഄѻᵓഫ乚䎠 .............................................................................................................. 1 ೑ݙ˖∛Єࠊ䗴Ϯ PMIಲ㨑ˈഄᮍᬓᑰ៪⬏佐ܙ伹............................................................................................. 2 ⍋໪˖ᖋᏠዄӮ᮴䖯ሩˈ๲䭓य़࡯ᇚᰒ䴆 .............................................................................................................. 5 ⌕ࡼᗻ䆘Ԅ˖ᬓㄪ䴶䗚ಲ䌁ܜ㸠ˈ㙵Ꮦݙ䌘䞥䴶ᑇ䴭 .......................................................................................... 6 ᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂˖ᑇᖗ䴭⇨ㄝᕙѸᯧᴎӮ .......................................................................................................................... 7 䞡㽕᭄᥂㾖ᆳ .............................................................................................................................................................. 7 ᦦ೒Ⳃᔩ ೒ 1˖Ϟ䆕ᣛ਼᭄ݙ䍄࢓ ........................................................................................................................................... 1 ೒ 2˖Ϟ਼Џ㽕㙵ᣛ㌃䅵⍼䎠ᐙ................................................................................................................................ 1 ೒ 3˖Ёֵϔ㑻㸠Ϯᣛ਼᭄⍼䎠ᐙ............................................................................................................................ 1 ೒ 4˖Ёֵ亢Ḑᣛ਼᭄⍼䎠ᐙ ................................................................................................................................... 1 ೒ 5˖Ϟ਼Џ㽕໻ᅫଚકӋḐব࣪............................................................................................................................ 2 ೒ 6˖Ϟ਼Џ㽕䋻Ꮥ∛⥛ব࣪ ................................................................................................................................... 2 ೒ 7˖∛Є PMIߎ⦄ಲ㨑 .......................................................................................................................................... 2 ೒ 8˖∛ЄЁ೑ࠊ䗴Ϯ PMI䚼ߚߚᣛ᭄................................................................................................................... 2 ೒ 9˖ᬓᑰ䋶ᬓᬊܹ੠䋶ᬓᬃߎৠ↨๲䗳................................................................................................................ 3 ೒ 10˖ජᡩ؎ҹЁ䭓ᳳ؎ЎЏ.................................................................................................................................. 3 ೒ 11˖Ꮰ㜞 10ᑈᳳ೑؎߽⥛䍄࢓............................................................................................................................ 5 ೒ 12˖ᛣ໻߽੠㽓⧁⠭ 10ᑈᳳ೑؎ᬊⲞ⥛............................................................................................................ 5 ೒ 13˖VIXᣛ᭄ ......................................................................................................................................................... 6 ೒ 14˖㕢೑ֵ⫼߽Ꮒ ................................................................................................................................................. 6 ೒ 15˖݀ᓔᏖഎᣕ㓁䗚ಲ䌁 ..................................................................................................................................... 6 ೒ 16˖݀ᓔᏖഎ᪡԰ࠄᳳ䞣 ..................................................................................................................................... 6 ೒ 17˖SHIBOR........................................................................................................................................................... 7 ೒ 18˖Ҏ⇥Ꮥܥ㕢ܗ∛⥛ ......................................................................................................................................... 7 ೒ 19˖Ϟ਼㸠Ϯ㸼⦄ ................................................................................................................................................. 7 ೒ 20˖㾘῵಴ᄤ˄໻ǃЁǃᇣⲬᣛ᭄ϢϞ䆕㓐ᣛⱘⳌᇍ䍄࢓˅ .......................................................................... 8 ೒ 21˖㸠Ϯ 2012ᑈⲜ߽乘⌟বࡼ............................................................................................................................ 8 ೒ 22˖㸠Ϯ䌘䞥䞣㛑ⲥ⌟ ......................................................................................................................................... 8 㸼ḐⳂᔩ 㸼 1˖䖥 3Ͼ᳜ഄᮍᬓᑰᮄ᥼ߎᡩ䌘䅵ߦϔ㾜........................................................................................................ 3 㸼 2˖2012ᑈϟञᑈЏ㽕ㄪ⬹䞡㽕џӊ∛ᘏ........................................................................................................... 8 A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹਼᡹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2012ᑈ 8᳜ 27᮹ 1 ᏖᏖഎಲ乒˖A㙵ᔅ࢓䳛㤵ˈഄѻᵓഫ乚䎠 ೼Ϟ਼ A㙵Ꮦഎⱘ 5ϾѸᯧ᮹Ё˄8᳜ 20᮹㟇 8᳜ 24᮹˅ˈ Ꮦഎೈ㒩 2100⚍ⱘЁᵶ䳛㤵ˈ਼㌃䅵䎠ᐙ Ў 1.08%ˈ਼Ѩ≾ᣛᬊⲬ᳔㒜䎠⸈ 2100⚍ˈ߯ߎϝᑈञҹᴹᮄԢDŽ⏅៤ᣛǃЁᇣᵓߚ߿ϟ䎠 3.43%ǃ0.81%ˈ ߯ϮᵓϞ⍼ 1.70%˗ᡩ䌘㗙ᓊ㓁њПࠡ↨䕗ᚆ㾖ⱘ乘ᳳˈᏖഎֵᖗձ✊↨䕗㛚ᔅDŽҢ㒧ᵘϞᴹⳟˈ䞥㵡ഄѻ 㙵੠਼ᳳ㙵៤Ўϟ㸠ⱘЏ㽕偅ࡼDŽ ೒ 1˖Ϟ䆕ᣛ਼᭄ݙ䍄࢓˄8/20-8/24ˈ5ߚ䩳㒓˅ 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130 08 /2 0 08 /2 1 08 /2 2 08 /2 3 08 /2 4 MM/DD 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖BloombergˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 2˖Ϟ਼Џ㽕㙵ᣛ㌃䅵⍼䎠ᐙ˄8/20-8/24˅ �1.63% �1.08% �3.43% �0.81% 1.70% �4.0% �3.0% �2.0% �1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% ܛಇ��� ౨ᄃᆘᄗ ಇюᄗ ᄯ໌͐ җྜ͐ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ߚ㸠ϮⳟˈϞ਼৘㸠Ϯ⍼䎠Ѧ⦄DŽফࠄĀ㣍ᵰѻϮ䫒ā߽ད乘ᳳҹঞ݇䬂Ͼ㙵〇عЁ᡹Ϯ㒽ⱘᦤᤃˈ䗮 ֵ੠⬉ᄤܗ఼ӊᵓഫϞ਼⍼ᐙ乚ܜˈ೑䰆ݯᎹǃ䅵ㅫᴎǃए㥃ǃ亳ક佂᭭ㄝ䰆ᕵᗻ㸠Ϯ䛑ߎ⦄њϞ⍼ˈᱎ㛑 ᠟ᴎǃए㥃ǃ䕃ӊㄝᵓഫг䛑᳝䕗དⱘ㸼⦄DŽ៥ӀПࠡᦤ⼎݇⊼ⱘഄѻ䇗᥻⍜ᙃ೼Ϟ਼ᕅડ䕗໻ˈϟ䎠↨䕗 Ϲ䞡ⱘᵓഫᰃⳈ᥹ফ݊ކߏⱘ᠓ഄѻᵓഫҹঞϢ݊Ⳍ݇ⱘᓎㄥǃᓎᴤǃ䩶䪕ǃ䫊㸠ㄝᵓഫDŽ ೒ 3˖Ёֵϔ㑻㸠Ϯᣛ਼᭄⍼䎠ᐙ˄8/20-8/24˅ �4% �3% �2% �1% 0% 1% 2% 3% ඹ ໰ Ԩ ᆐ ڳ ֽ ࢋ ٝ ޙ സ ݯ ྤ ྐ ಪ ଶ ࿢ ॸ Ԩ ॏ ٤ ဈ ா ٝ ᄥ ႏ ᆘ ۦ ݮ ҄ ܤ ٝ ပ ౄ ࠡ ೫ ૊ ॿ ઄ ါ Ҏ ਢ ϴ ࿢ ৊ ဓ Ԩ ॏ ಁ ΁ ߬ ඹ ၮ ೛ ౥ ਘ ঌ ೒ ׄ ࿟ ࠡ క ୺ к ޥ Ԩ ದ ဒ ದ ܤ ׁ ᄎ ׻ ᅭ ࿟ ໻ ر ත ݯ ໠ ߙ ϫ ਟ ൲ ߙ ᅝ ּ ԙ С 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 4˖Ёֵ亢Ḑᣛ਼᭄⍼䎠ᐙ˄8/20-8/24˅ �1.89% �1.27% �0.02% 0.37% �0.62% �2.0% �1.5% �1.0% �0.5% 0.0% 0.5% ࠡకԙС ᄻ୙ ່׎ юЩ ืՇ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⍋໪Ꮦഎᮍ䴶ˈϔᮍ䴶㕢೑᠓ഄѻᏖഎߎ⦄໡㢣䗍䈵ؐᕫ݇⊼˗Ԛᰃˈ঺ϔᮍ䴶ˈࠡᳳϞ⍼ⱘಲ䇗य़࡯ ੠ϔѯϡ߽ⱘ㒣⌢᭄᥂ˈՓᕫϞ਼䰸њ֘㔫ᮃ੠ॄᑺᏖഎߎ⦄Ϟ⍼ҹ໪ˈ⃻㕢Ꮦഎ᱂䘡ᇣᐙϟ䎠DŽফࠄ㕢㘨 ټ䋻Ꮥᆑᵒᬓㄪ乘ᳳⱘᕅડˈ㕢ܗᣛ᭄㒻㓁ϟ䎠ˈ݊ҪЏ㽕䋻Ꮥ߭ߎ⦄ϡৠᐙᑺछؐDŽ㕢ܗϟ㸠੠ᇍѢ᳾ᴹ ⌕ࡼᗻⱘ乘ᳳг᥼ࡼ໻ᅫଚક᱂䘡䍄ᔎˈ咘䞥ӋḐϞ਼໻ᐙϞ⍼ 8.76%ˈ⍼ᐙᇸ݊ᯢᰒDŽᭈԧᴹⳟˈ⍋໪Ꮦ എᏆ㒣ᕜ໻⿟ᑺϞড᯴њ QE3ⱘ乘ᳳDŽ A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹਼᡹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2012ᑈ 8᳜ 27᮹ 2 ೒ 5˖Ϟ਼Џ㽕໻ᅫଚકӋḐব࣪˄8/20-8/24˅ 1.76% 0.27% 1.41%2.05% 3.30% 8.76% 1.76% 4.50% �2.33%�4% �2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 6˖Ϟ਼Џ㽕䋻Ꮥ∛⥛ব࣪˄8/20-8/24˅ �1.43% 1.88% 1.02% 1.21% 1.87% 0.07% 0.23% �2.0% �1.5% �1.0% �0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Windˈ໻Ѣ 0 㸼⼎䆹䋻ᏕⳌᇍ㕢ܗछؐˈ㕢ܗᣛ᭄Ϟछ 㸼⼎㕢ܗⳌᇍϔ㇂ᄤ䋻ᏕछؐˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೑೑ݙ˖∛Єࠊ䗴Ϯ PMIಲ㨑ˈഄᮍᬓᑰ៪⬏佐ܙ伹 ೑ݙᅣ㾖ᮍ䴶ˈϞ਼݀Ꮧⱘ↨䕗䞡㽕ⱘ᭄᥂ᰃ∛ЄЁ೑ࠊ䗴Ϯ PMIˈ݊ᘏᣛ᭄乘㾜ؐҢ 49.3 ⱘ 7 ᳜㒜 ؐಲ㨑㟇 47.8ˈ߯ϟ 9Ͼ᳜ҹᴹⱘᮄԢDŽ೼ 8᳜∛Є PMI߱ؐЁˈ11Ͼߚ乍ᣛᷛ䰸њ៤કᑧᄬ໪ˈഛ໘Ѣ 㧢㓽៪㗙ϟ䰡⢊ᗕDŽߎষᮍ䴶ⱘ㸼⦄᳔Ў⮆䕃ˈ8᳜ᮄߎষ䅶ऩᣛ᭄⦃↨ϟ䎠 2Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈ߯ 41Ͼ᳔᳜ԢDŽ ∛Є PMIᣛ᭄ⱘᔅ࢓ᛣੇⴔЁ೑㒣⌢ӕ〇ಲछⱘᣛᷛҡ᳾ߎ⦄ˈᅲԧ㒣⌢⡍߿ᰃЁᇣӕϮⱘ㒣㧹ձ✊䴲ᐌ ೄ䲒DŽ㗠໻ӕϮⱘᚙމгᑊϡФ㾖ˈḍ᥂Ϟ਼೑䌘ྨ݀Ꮧⱘ༂ӕ㒣㧹᭄᥂ˈҞᑈࠡ 7᳜༂ӕ㌃䅵ᅲ⦄ޔ߽⍺ 4594ғܗˈৠ↨ϟ䰡 16.1%ˈ䰡ᐙ↨ 1-6᳜⬹ᬊじ 0.3Ͼⱒߚ⚍ˈ㗠ᬊܹৠ↨๲䭓 8.4%ˈⳌ↨Ѣࠡ 6Ͼ᳜ϟ 䰡њ 0.6Ͼⱒߚ⚍DŽৃ㾕ᅲԧӕϮ᮴䆎ᰃ໻ൟ༂ӕ䖬ᰃЁᇣൟӕϮǃ᮴䆎ᰃ᱃⇨ᑺ䖬ᰃⲜ߽㛑࡯䛑ձ✊໘Ѣ Ԣ⚍DŽ೼೼䖛ᕔᬓㄪ㌃⿃ᬜᑨⱘᕅડϟˈ៥Ӏᭈԧ㓈ᣕᇍᅲԧ㒣⌢๲䗳ܼᑈĀLāൟⱘ߸ᮁDŽ ೒ 7˖∛Є PMIߎ⦄ಲ㨑 45 50 55 60 10 /0 1 10 /0 3 10 /0 5 10 /0 7 10 /0 9 10 /1 1 11 /0 1 11 /0 3 11 /0 5 11 /0 7 11 /0 9 11 /1 1 12 /0 1 12 /0 3 12 /0 5 12 /0 7 YY/MM ݘמPMI ᄯϰPMI 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 8˖∛ЄЁ೑ࠊ䗴Ϯ PMI䚼ߚߚᣛ᭄ 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 ᆙᄗ೴ Сѻ ໭ՈӦ ࡜ྜ 2012/06 2012/07 2012/08 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ᬓㄪᮍ䴶ˈϞ਼༂㸠䗮䖛݀ᓔᏖഎ䗚ಲ䌁ᅲ⦄њ催䖒 2780 ғⱘ䌘䞥ޔᡩᬒˈ䖭ᛣੇⴔⷁᳳݙϡӮ䖯㸠 ᇚޚ᪡԰DŽ಴ЎЁ೑ᅲԧ㒣⌢䇗ᭈϡҙҙᰃ䴶Јএᑧᄬⱘ䯂乬ˈ㗠ᰃ䴶Јএᴴᴚ੠এѻ㛑ⱘ⏅ሖ⃵䯂乬ˈ䇗 ᭈ਼ᳳ䕗䭓ˈབᵰ໻㾘῵ᬒᵒ䋻Ꮥ⌕ࡼᗻⱘ㒧ᵰ佪ܜᰃᚴঞ᠓ഄѻǃ㙵Ꮦㄝ䌘ѻӋḐঞ໻ᅫଚકӋḐˈ㗠ᅲ ԧ㒣⌢ফⲞ᳝䰤DŽ A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹਼᡹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2012ᑈ 8᳜ 27᮹ 3 ೒ 9˖ᬓᑰ䋶ᬓᬊܹ੠䋶ᬓᬃߎৠ↨๲䗳 ˄%˅ �40 �20 0 20 40 60 80 10 /0 1 10 /0 3 10 /0 5 10 /0 7 10 /0 9 10 /1 1 11 /0 1 11 /0 3 11 /0 5 11 /0 7 11 /0 9 11 /1 1 12 /0 1 12 /0 3 12 /0 5 12 /0 7 YY/MMϭჿೌద ϭჿᄆѻ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 10˖ජᡩ؎ҹЁ䭓ᳳ؎ЎЏ ˄ғܗ˅ 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 09 /0 1 09 /0 4 09 /0 7 09 /1 0 10 /0 1 10 /0 4 10 /0 7 10 /1 0 11 /0 1 11 /0 4 11 /0 7 11 /1 0 12 /0 1 12 /0 4 12 /0 7 5ᑈҹϞ 1ᑈҹݙ 1ࠄ5ᑈ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೼೼ഄѻ䇗᥻ⱘ㑶㒓䴶ࠡ Ёˈ༂ᭈԧᬓㄪ▔䖯ⱘᬒᵒবᕫϡৃ᥹ফ ಴ˈℸⷁᳳݙⱘᬓㄪⳟ⚍㨑೼њഄᮍᬓ ᑰሖ䴶DŽ೼Ё༂ᬓᑰᡞĀ〇๲䭓āᬒ೼᳈䞡㽕ԡ㕂ⱘ෎䇗ϟˈ䖛এ޴਼৘Ͼഄᮍᬓᑰ㒋㒋᥼ߎ໻㾘῵ⱘᡩ䌘 䅵ߦ˄㸼 1 DŽ˅Ԛᰃˈ៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈ䖭䖭ϔ⊶ഄᮍ⠜ⱘĀಯϛғā᳔㒜ᕜ᳝ৃ㛑াᰃ೼ᬓㄪೄሔПϟഄᮍᬓᑰⱘ ⬏佐ܙ伹㗠ᏆDŽ⧚⬅೼Ѣˈ佪ܜˈ䖭ѯࡼ䕘गғⱘᡩ䌘㾘ߦᕔᕔাᰃ᳾ᴹ 3ࠄ 5ᑈ⫮㟇ᰃ 10ᑈⱘ䭓ᳳ㾘ߦ ៪㗙ᛣ㾕ˈ೼ᠻ㸠Ϟᑊϡ݋໛ᔎࠊᗻˈ಴ℸᬜᵰৃ㛑Ӯ໻ᠧᡬᠷˈ՟བˈ䭓≭ᡯ 8000ғ乍Ⳃ໻ऩⱘ㚠ৢᰃˈ Ϟञᑈ䭓≭䞡໻乍Ⳃҙᅠ៤ 56 ғܗˈᏂ䎱Ꮌ໻DŽ݊⃵ˈᬓᑰᤶሞ໻㚠᱃ϟˈ䖭⾡ഄᮍᬓᑰ䭓ᳳথሩᗱ䏃ᰃ ৺㛑೼ᤶሞৢᓊ㓁ˈг㒭乍Ⳃⱘৃ㸠ᗻᏺᴹњ䴲ᐌᔎⱘϡ⹂ᅮᗻDŽݡ⃵ˈЁ༂ᬓᑰᑨ䆹гϡᏠᳯഄᮍᬓᑰⱘ ᡩ䌘ᕅડ݊䇗ᭈ㒣⌢㒧ᵘǃᅲ⦄㒣⌢䕀ൟⱘᅣ㾖Ⳃᷛˈ಴ℸഄᮍᬓᑰᡩ䌘ⱘᮍ৥Ԅ䅵া㛑ҹ⍜䌍ǃ⇥⫳ǃᮄ ݈ѻϮЎЏˈ㗠೼Ӵ㒳ᎹϮҹঞ᠓ഄѻϞⱘᓔথᡩ䌘ৃ㛑ᕫϡࠄЁ༂ᬓᑰⱘᬃᣕDŽ ᳔䞡㽕ⱘᰃˈഄഄᮍᬓᑰⱘᡩ䌘䴶Ј䌘䞥ⱘೄ๗ˈϔᮍ䴶ˈ䋶ᬓᬊܹⱘ๲䗳ᰒ㨫ϟ䰡ˈ7᳜ӑ䋶ᬓᬊܹৠ ↨๲䗳Ꮖ㒣ಲ㨑㟇 8.2%ˈ㗠Ϩৠᡯߎⱘᡩ䌘䅵ߦⳌ↨ˈഄᮍᬓᑰⱘ䋶ᬓᬊܹᰒᕫ䴲ᐌऩ㭘˗঺ϔᮍ䴶ˈҢ ᳔䖥ⱘ䌘ѻ䋳؎㸼ব࣪ᴹⳟˈ䫊㸠ձ✊೼⍜࣪Ϟϔ⊶ 4ϛғᏺᴹⱘണ䋺य़࡯ˈᴀᑈҹᴹ䫊㸠䌋ℒ䞣ϔⳈԢѢ 乘ᳳDŽഄᮍᬓᑰ಴ℸ䕀৥؎ࠌᏖഎˈ䗴៤Ҟᑈҹᴹ؎ࠌ㵡䌘㾘῵໻๲ˈ៾㟇 8 ᳜ 20 ᮹ˈҞᑈජᡩ؎Ꮖ㒣থ 㸠њ 5436 ғˈࠡ 7 Ͼ᳜ⱘথ㸠䞣Ꮖ㒣䍙䖛њএᑈܼᑈˈᑊϨҢᳳ䰤㒧ᵘϞҹЁ䭓ᳳ䌋ℒЎЏˈԚᰃഄᮍᬓ ᑰ᳾ᴹⱘ⌕ࡼᗻᚙމᰃ৺Ӯ䗴៤ජᡩ؎ٓҬ㛑࡯ⱘ亢䰽гᰃᏖഎᢙᖻⱘ䯂乬DŽᓩᇐ⇥䯈䌘ᴀ䖯ܹ៪៤Ў݇ 䬂ˈԚᰃ೼㒣⌢ϡ᱃⇨ǃӕϮⲜ߽ϟ㸠ǃᏖഎ乘ᳳᭈԧᚆ㾖ⱘᚙމϟˈᳳᕙ⾕Ҏ䚼䮼໻㾘῵䖯㸠䭓ᳳᡩ䌘᮴ ⲞѢ㓬᳼∖剐DŽ ៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈഄᮍᬓᑰ೼䖥ᳳᆚ䲚᥼ߎⱘ໻㾘῵ⱘᡩ䌘䅵ߦ݊ᅲϡ䖛ᰃഄᮍᬓᑰડᑨЁ༂ᬓᑰĀ〇๲䭓ā ⱘϔ⃵ᬙ԰⿃ᵕⱘᬓㄪ㸼ᗕ㗠Ꮖˈ೼໮ᮍ䴶಴㋴ⱘ䰤ࠊϟˈᬓㄪᬜᵰ䲒ҹ乘᭭ˈᡩ䌘㗙䳔㽕ᦤ䰆䖭⾡亢䰽ˈ ϡᑨ᡹໾催ᳳᕙDŽ᮴䆎ᰃ䋶ᬓᬓㄪ䖬ᰃ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪˈ೼໮䞡ᬓㄪⳂᷛϟ䛑ᰒᕫ↨䕗䖳䩱ˈᠧ⸈Ⳃࠡⱘᙊᗻᕾ⦃ ձ✊㽕ձ䌪Ѣ᭄᥂ᬍ୘ᏺᴹⱘֵᖗᘶ໡DŽ㗠䖥ᳳϔѯࠊᑺᗻⱘᬍ୘ˈབ䕀㵡䗮᥼ߎǃ㑶߽⿢䇗ᭈㄝࡼᗕгؐ ᕫ݇⊼DŽ 㸼 1˖䖥 3Ͼ᳜ഄᮍᬓᑰᮄ᥼ߎᡩ䌘䅵ߦϔ㾜 ᯊ䯈 ഄᮍ ⍝ঞ䞥乱 ᥾ᮑ҂⚍ ᯊᳳ 䌘䞥ᴹ⑤ ݋ԧ乍Ⳃ੠㸠Ϯ 䋶ᬓᚙމ 6᳜ 8᮹ 䰩㽓ⳕ ϡ䆺 कᴵ“〇๲䭓”ⱘᛣ㾕 ᦤˈߎⴔ࡯᥼䖯䞡໻ 乍Ⳃᓎ䆒 ˈܙߚথ᣹ᡩ䌘ᇍ〇ᅮ㒣⌢๲䭓 ⱘ݇䬂԰⫼ˈࣙᣀࡴᖿᓔᎹϔᡍ䞡໻乍 Ⳃǃѝপ೑ᆊᡍ໡ϔᡍ乍Ⳃǃ⿃ᵕ䇟ߦټ ໛ϔᡍ乍Ⳃǃࡴᖿ೼ᓎ乍Ⳃᓎ䆒䗳ᑺㄝDŽ Ҟᑈ � 㽓៤ᅶϧǃ㽓ড়໡ 㒓ǃ㩭㽓-ढЁ䖤 ✸䗮䘧ㄝ乍Ⳃ A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹਼᡹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2012ᑈ 8᳜ 27᮹ 4 ᯊᯊ䯈 ഄᮍ ⍝ঞ䞥乱 ᥾ᮑ҂⚍ ᯊᳳ 䌘䞥ᴹ⑤ ݋ԧ乍Ⳃ੠㸠Ϯ 䋶ᬓᚙމ 7᳜߱ ᑓϰⳕ 4000ғܗ 19 ᴵ〇๲䭓ⱘВ᥾ˈ݊Ёࣙᣀࡴᖿ᥼䖯 䞡໻乍Ⳃᓎ䆒ㄝϔ㋏߫᥾ᮑ 㽕ˈᡞܼ࡯ᡁ 䕀ᡩ䌘ᣕ㓁ϟ⒥԰Ўᠽݙ䳔ǃ〇๲䭓ⱘ䞡 ЁП䞡DŽ佪ᡍ䴶৥⇥䯈ᡩ䌘᢯ᷛ䞡⚍乍Ⳃ 44乍ˈᘏᡩ䌘 2353ғܗDŽ Ҟᑈ䅵ߦᡩ 䌘 佪ᡍ䴶৥⇥䯈 ᡩ䌘᢯ᷛ䞡⚍ 乍Ⳃ 44 乍ˈᘏ ᡩ䌘 2353ғܗ 䞡⚍ᬃᣕ催ッᮄ ൟ⬉ᄤֵᙃǃᮄ㛑 ⑤≑䔺ǃञᇐԧ✻ ᯢ (LED)ㄝ៬⬹ ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ ᑓϰⳕϞञᑈ ഄᮍ݀݅䋶ᬓ 乘 ㅫ ᬊ ܹ Ў 2994 ғܗˈৠ ↨๲䭓 8.6%ˈ ↨এᑈৠᳳಲ 㨑 17.4% 7᳜16᮹ ᅕ⊶Ꮦ ϡ䆺 ᛣ㾕݅ 26 ᴵˈ৿䞥䞣ᵕ催ˈᇍѢЁᇣᖂ ӕϮᴹ䇈 䛑ˈᰃᅲᅲ೼೼ⱘ߽དˈ݊ Ё᳝ 11ᴵᰃⳈ᥹㒭ӕϮⱘ“䪅㹟ᄤ”ޣ䋳DŽᦤߎ ࡴᖿ᥼䖯䞡໻ᎹϮ乍Ⳃᓎ䆒ˈᇍᡩ䌘乱 20 ғܗҹϞⱘ䞡໻ᎹϮ乍Ⳃ੠ 3 ғܗҹ Ϟⱘ៬⬹ᗻᮄ݈ѻϮ乍Ⳃ ќˈҹऩ⣀㗗Ḍ ੠㸼ᕄDŽ 3ᑈ 䋶ᬓ䌘䞥ˈ㒳ㅍᅝᥦ ᇣᖂӕϮ ᅕ⊶ᏖϞञᑈ 䋶ᬓᬊܹ 1100 ғܗ 7᳜23᮹ फҀᏖ ϡ䆺 㽕⿃ᵕথ᣹ᡩ䌘ᇍᢝࡼݙ䳔ⱘ԰⫼ ࡴˈᖿ ᥼䖯෎⸔䆒ᮑ乍Ⳃᓎ䆒 ᮄˈ݈ѻϮ乍Ⳃᓎ 䆒੠⍜䌍䕑ԧᓎ䆒DŽ㽕ⴔ䞡೼᠓ഄѻ⍜ 䌍ǃ≑䔺⍜䌍ǃᮙ␌㒣⌢ǃӮሩ㒣⌢ǃ⬉ ᄤଚࡵǃ㓓㡆⍜䌍ㄝ݁໻ᮍ䴶ࡴ໻ᬓㄪᗻ ᡩܹDŽ � ᠓ഄѻ⍜䌍ǃ≑䔺 ⍜䌍ǃᮙ␌ӥ䯆⍜ 䌍ǃ᭛࣪ԧ㚆စФ ⍜䌍ㄝ फҀϞञᑈ䋶 ᬓᬊܹ 734 ғ ܗ 7᳜23᮹ 䌉Ꮂⳕ 3ϛғ 7 ᳜ 23 ᮹ˈ⬅䌉ᎲⳕҎ⇥ᬓᑰǃ೑ᆊᮙ ␌ሔ੠Ϫ⬠ᮙ␌㒘㒛㘨ড়㓪ࠊⱘlj䌉Ꮂⳕ ⫳ᗕ᭛࣪ᮙ␌থሩ㾘ߦNJЁᳳ៤ᵰⷨ䅼Ӯ ೼࣫ҀীᓔˈҞᑈ 5 ᳜㟇ҞᏆᬊ䲚乍Ⳃ 2382 Ͼˈㄯ䗝ߎᡩ䌘ᘏ乱 32479 ғܗⱘ 乍Ⳃˈ߱ℹᦤߎ㾘ߦ 10 Ͼ೑ᆊ㑻䞡໻乍 Ⳃǃ50 Ͼⳕ㑻䞡໻乍Ⳃ੠ 200 Ͼⳕ㑻䞡 ⚍乍ⳂDŽ ᳾ᴹ 10ᑈ ೼䌉Ꮂⳕᬓᑰ 䚼ߚ䌘䞥ᡩ䌘 ੠ᬓㄪᓩᇐϟˈ ᳈໮ⱘᡩ䌘乍 Ⳃᴹ㞾Ѣ᢯ଚ ᓩ䌘 ᮙ␌ǃഄѻǃⱑ䜦ǃ 䌉Ꮂ⇥ᮣए㥃 5᳜ӑЎℶ ㌃ˈ 䅵 乘 ㅫ ᬊ ܹ 402ғ 7᳜25᮹ 䭓≭Ꮦ 8292ғܗ 䭓≭Ꮦᇍ໪ᅷᏗˈ2012 ᑈ䞡໻᥼ҟ乍Ⳃ 195 Ͼˈᘏᡩ䌘乱䖒 8292 ғܗDŽࣙᣀᘏ ᡩ䌘 3748 ғܗⱘ“ಯक”䞡໻乍Ⳃˈ䰸䞡 ໻乍Ⳃ໪ 䭓ˈ≭Ꮦ䖬ࣙ㺙њ 155Ͼϔ㠀乍 Ⳃ ⡍ˈ߿ᰃ䩜ᇍ೑ᆊࡴ໻ᇍ㡖㛑ޣᥦǃ⼒ Ӯ⇥⫳ᮍ䴶ᡩܹ ೼ˈ㡖㛑⦃ֱ੠⼒ӮџϮ 乚ඳ㸹ܙњϔᡍ䕤ᇘᏺࡼ࡯ᔎⱘ乍ⳂDŽ ᳾ᴹ 5—8 ᑈ � “ಯक”䞡໻乍Ⳃ ࣙᣀ“क໻⠛ऎᓎ 䆒”ǃ“क໻෎⸔䆒 ᮑ”ǃ“क໻Ёᖗ 䬛”੠“क໻ѻϮ 乍Ⳃ” 7᳜ӑЎℶ ㌃ˈ 䅵 乘 ㅫ ᬊ ܹ 315ғ 8᳜ 6᮹ 䞡ᑚᏖ 10ᑈ 6ϛғ 䞡ᑚᏖࡃᏖ䭓スᇣᑇ೼䆹Ꮦ“ᎹϮುऎक ਼ᑈᘏ㒧㸼ᕄᱼ 2012 ᑈᎹ԰Ӯ”Ϟ䇈ˈ “៥Ӏ⦄᳝ⱘᎹϮುऎⱘѻؐᏆ㒣䖒ࠄ 1 ϛғܗ ᳾ˈᴹकᑈᇚ䖒ࠄ 6ϛғܗⱘᎹϮ ѻؐDŽ”䖛এकᑈˈᎹϮುऎᇍ䞡ᑚⱘᎹ Ϯথሩ䍋ࠄњ䞡㽕ᬃᩥ԰⫼DŽ ᳾ᴹ 10ᑈ 䅵ߦࠄ 2022ᑈˈ ЎᎹϮುऎᮄ ᭈ⊏ೳഄ 600ᑇ ᮍ݀䞠 ⬉ᄤǃ≑䔺ǃ࣪Ꮉǃ 㺙໛ࠊ䗴ǃ㛑⑤ѻ Ϯ˄ 义ች⇨ ঞ˅᳡ ࡵϮ 5᳜ӑЎℶ ㌃ˈ 䅵 乘 ㅫ ᬊ ܹ 658ғ 8᳜ 7᮹ ᑓᎲᏖ 2000ғ ᑓᎲϟञᑈ㽕䞡⚍ᡧདᑈᑺᡩ䌘 714 ғ ܗⱘ 101 Ͼ䞡⚍乍Ⳃᓎ䆒੠ܹ߫ⳕ⦄ҷ ѻϮ 500ᔎⱘ 120Ͼ乍Ⳃᓎ䆒 ᡧ˗ད೑᳝ ӕϮᘏᡩ䌘Ў 1270໮ғܗⱘ 76Ͼ㓁ᓎ੠ ᮄᓔᎹ乍Ⳃᓎ䆒DŽ㦋ᡍⱘ 7ᴵᮄഄ䪕೼᳾ ᴹ޴ᑈᇚ໻໻ᢝࡼᑓᎲⱘ೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘 乱ˈ㗠ᑓᎲⱑѥᴎഎⱘᠽᓎгेᇚᓔᎹˈ ᑊⴔ᠟ᓔሩᑓᎲफ䚼㄀Ѡᴎഎⱘ㾘ߦⷨ おDŽ ᑈᑺ䅵ߦᡩ 䌘 � 7ᴵഄ䪕㒓 ⱑˈѥ ᴎഎᠽᓎ ሩˈ佚䆒 ᮑ Ϟञᑈϔ㠀䋶 ᬓ 乘 ㅫ ᬊ ܹ 479.6ғܗ 8᳜14᮹ 䭓᯹Ꮦ 20ғ ᴀ⃵থᏗⱘ䖭 25 ljᴵᛣ㾕NJˈ⎉Ⲫ೼䋶ᬓǃ ⿢ᬊǃᅵᡍǃೳഄǃ䞥㵡ㄝ৘ᮍ䴶ᇍӕϮ ⱘᡊᣕDŽ䆹Ꮦ䋶ᬓ䖬೼ᎹϮǃ⾥ᡔǃ⇥⫳ǃ ᳡ࡵϮǃ෎⸔䆒ᮑᮍ䴶 ๲ˈࡴ੠ᮄ䆒њ৘ ㉏ϧ乍䌘䞥 20 ғܗˈ哧ࢅӕϮ԰ЎᏖഎ ЏԧˈЏࡼᇍ᥹ǃ⿃ᵕ⬇᡹ˈᇏ∖ᬃᣕDŽ 䋶ᬓϧ乍䌘䞥 ᎹϮǃ⾥ᡔǃ⇥⫳ǃ᳡ࡵϮǃ෎⸔䆒ᮑ Ϟञᑈܼষᕘ 䋶ᬓᬊܹ 518 ғܗ 8᳜14᮹ ⌭∳ⳕ ϡ䆺 ⌭∳ⳕᬓᑰࡲ݀ख़䖥᮹থᏗlj݇Ѣᓎゟ䞡 ໻ѻϮ乍Ⳃ⫼ഄֱ䱰ᴎࠊⱘᛣ㾕NJˈ 㽕∖ ৘ও˄Ꮦǃऎ˅᥼䖯Ԣᬜ߽⫼ೳഄѠ⃵ᓔ থ੠ᡍ㗠᳾կೳഄ⍜࣪ˈᬃ ᣕⳕ䞡໻ѻϮ 乍Ⳃᓎ䆒 ᑊˈᇚ乍Ⳃ⫼ഄ㗗Ḍ㒧ᵰϢ⫼ഄ ᣛᷛᅝᥦᣖ䩽 ⴷˈ֗৘ഄᦤ催ೳഄ߽⫼ᬜ ⥛੠ೳഄᡩܹѻߎ∈ᑇDŽ ᥼䖯Ԣᬜ߽⫼ ೳഄѠ⃵ᓔথ ੠ᡍ㗠᳾կೳ ഄ⍜࣪ ϔᡍџ݇㒣⌢⼒ Ӯথሩܼሔ੠ᇍ ѻϮ䕀ൟछ㑻݋ ᳝⼎㣗ᓩ乚԰⫼ ⱘ䞡໻ѻϮ乍Ⳃ 5᳜ӑЎℶ ㌃ˈ 䅵 乘 ㅫ ᬊ ܹ 1654ғ A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹਼᡹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2012ᑈ 8᳜ 27᮹ 5 ᯊᯊ䯈 ഄᮍ ⍝ঞ䞥乱 ᥾ᮑ҂⚍ ᯊᳳ 䌘䞥ᴹ⑤ ݋ԧ乍Ⳃ੠㸠Ϯ 䋶ᬓᚙމ 8᳜14᮹ 咥啭∳ⳕ ϡ䆺 咥啭∳ℸ⃵ߎৄⱘᬓㄪ᥾ᮑ݅ 17 ᴵˈ⎉ Ⲫ 7Ͼᮍ䴶ˈ4ϾḌᖗݙᆍDŽ݋ԧЎˈϔ ᰃᬃᣕӕϮ๲ࡴ⫳ѻ Ѡ˗ᰃ㓧㾷ӕϮ䌘䞥 䲒乬 ϝ˗ᰃᐂࡽӕϮᢧሩᏖഎ ಯ˗ᰃޣ䕏 ӕϮ䋳ᢙDŽ � ଚࡵǃѸ䗮ǃ✸⚁ǃ⬉࡯ǃ䪕䏃 5᳜ӑЎℶ ㌃ˈ 䅵 乘 ㅫ ᬊ ܹ 515ғ 8᳜20᮹ 䞡ᑚᏖ 1.5ϛғ 䞡ᑚᏖᬓᑰ 20 ᮹থᏗᎹϮ乚ඳЏ㽕ѻϮ ⱘϝᑈᤃ݈㾘ߦ “ˈकѠѨ”ᳳ䯈ˈܼᏖᎹ Ϯᇚ㌃䅵ᡩܹ 1.5ϛғܗˈᓎ៤ 7໻गғ 㑻ѻϮ䲚㕸੠ 30 Ͼⱒғ㑻ѻϮ䲚㕸ˈᎹ Ϯᘏѻؐさ⸈ 3ϛғܗDŽ 3ᑈ � ⬉ᄤǃ≑䔺ǃ࣪Ꮉǃ 㺙໛ࠊ䗴ǃᴤ᭭ǃ 㛑⑤ѻϮ˄义ች ⇨ ǃ˅ݰࡃѻકࡴ Ꮉǃए㥃 5᳜ӑЎℶ ㌃ˈ 䅵 乘 ㅫ ᬊ ܹ 658ғ 8᳜20᮹ ቅ㽓ⳕ 2ϛғ ༪ᚽᑊВϟ ቅˈ㽓᢯ଚᓩ䌘Ꮉ԰Ѻ᳝໻ᐙ ᦤछ ҞˈᑈϞञᑈ ቅˈ㽓ⳕ݅ᓩ䖯৘㉏䌘 䞥 2580 ғܗˈᰃএᑈৠᳳⱘϸס໮ˈࡴ ϞϞ䗄ϸ乍⌏ࡼᓩ䌘乱ᑺ ቅˈ㽓Ꮖ㒣ᓩ䌘 2ϛғܗП໮DŽ ᢯ଚᓩ䌘 㛑⑤ㄝ 5᳜ӑЎℶ ㌃ˈ 䅵 乘 ㅫ ᬊ ܹ 663ғ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖੠䆃㔥ǃ㄀ϔ䋶㒣᮹᡹ㄝ݀ᓔၦԧ᡹䘧ˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ᭈ⧚ ⍋໪˖ᖋᏠዄӮ᮴䖯ሩˈ๲䭓य़࡯ᇚᰒ䴆 Ϟ਼Ѩ໛ফ݇⊼ⱘᖋ೑੠Ꮰ㜞ᘏ⧚Ӯ᰸≵᳝ᮄⱘ䖯ሩˈ䖭໻໻ԢѢПࠡᏖഎⳌᇍФ㾖ⱘ乘ᳳDŽᖋ೑ᘏ⧚ 咬ܟᇨᑊ≵᳝ᯢ⹂㸼⼎ĀᬒᆑᬥࡽᏠ㜞ⱘᴵӊāˈ Ⳍডˈཌྷ䅸Ўᖙ乏ㄝࠄ 9 ᳜ӑ೑䰙ϝᮍᬥࡽᴎᵘⱘ᡹ਞߎ ৄৢᠡ㛑԰ߎއᅮDŽℸ⍜ᙃ݀ᏗৢᏖഎᇍ⃻ܗऎ೑ᆊ໡㢣ⱘᖻ㰥᳝᠔ᢀ༈ˈ⃻ܗᯢᰒᡓय़DŽ ೒ 11˖Ꮰ㜞 10ᑈᳳ೑؎߽⥛䍄࢓ ˄%˅ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 12˖ᛣ໻߽੠㽓⧁⠭ 10ᑈᳳ೑؎ᬊⲞ⥛ ˄%˅ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 㕢೑ᮍ䴶ˈ᳔ᮄ݀Ꮧⱘ 7 ᳜ᠷ䰸亲ᴎ䴲೑䰆䌘ᴀ㗤⫼ક䅶ऩ᳜⥛ϟ䰡 3.4%ˈᯢᰒԢѢПࠡᏖഎϔ㟈乘 ᳳⱘϞछ 0.7%DŽϔⳈড໡ⱘ㕢೑㒣⌢᭄᥂ҸᏖഎᇍ㕢㘨ټᰃ৺᥼ߎ QE3ⱘ乘ᳳг೼ᨛᨚDŽҢ VIXᣛ᭄ᴹⳟˈ Ꮦഎⱘ䙓䰽ᚙ㒾↨ࠡϸ਼᳝᠔Ϟछ˗ᭈᭈԧϞ៥Ӏ㓈ᣕ 9᳜ӑ⍋໪亢䰽䗤ℹϞछⱘ߸ᮁDŽ A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹਼᡹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2012ᑈ 8᳜ 27᮹ 6 ೒ 13˖VIXᣛ᭄ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 14˖㕢೑ֵ⫼߽Ꮒ ˄BPs˅ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖CEICˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ⌕⌕ࡼᗻ䆘Ԅ˖ᬓㄪ䴶䗚ಲ䌁ܜ㸠ˈ㙵Ꮦݙ䌘䞥䴶ᑇ䴭 ݀ᓔᏖഎ᪡԰ᮍ䴶ˈϞ਼༂㸠䗚ಲ䌁࠻๲ˈ༂㸠៪䗝ᢽ䗚ಲ䌁ܜ㸠ˈ䰡ޚᢽᴎⱘᮍᓣDŽЎњ㓧㾷䖥ᳳ䌘 䞥㋻ᓴǃ߽⥛Ϟ㸠ⱘ⢊މˈ঴ࡴ᥹䖥᳜᳿㗗Ḍᯊ⚍ˈϞ਼༂㸠ⱘ䗚ಲ䌁㾘῵偸๲DŽᭈԧϞˈ䗮䖛䗚ಲ䌁ᡩᬒ њⷁᳳ䌘䞥 3650 ғܗˈ䕗Пࠡϔ਼ᠽ໻䍙䖛ϸסˈ䖒ࠄऩ਼䗚ಲ䌁ᡩᬒग़৆催⚍DŽ೼໽䞣䗚ಲ䌁Пϟˈ䌘 䞥߽⥛᳝᠔ϟ䇗ˈԚձ✊໘Ѣ催ԡˈ7᮹ SHIBORҢ 8᳜ 20᮹ⱘ 4.4%ϟ䰡㟇Ϟ਼᳿ⱘ 4%DŽᣕ㓁ⱘ䗚ಲ䌁 ՓᕫᏖഎᇍѢ༂㸠䰡ޚⱘᯊ⚍ϔ᥼ݡ᥼DŽ ៥Ӏ䅸Ўˈϔᮍ䴶ˈҢ䞞ᬒ⌕ࡼᗻⱘ㾦ᑺᴹⳟˈ䗚ಲ䌁㛑໳᳓ҷ䰡ޚⱘ԰⫼ˈ㗠Ϩᇍ䞥㵡ᴎᵘ㗠㿔ˈಲ 䌁᪡԰䕗䰡ޚ䩜ᇍᗻᔎˈϨ㛑䗖ᔧᓩᇐ䌘䞥߽⥛˗Ԛᰃ঺ϔᮍ䴶ˈ䗚ಲ䌁ᡩᬒ䌘䞥᳝ᳳ䰤໾ⷁⱘ⡍⚍ˈއᅮ ݊᮴⊩ᅠܼ᳓ҷ䰡ޚⱘ԰⫼ˈ䖛ᑺձ䌪䗚ಲ䌁ˈय़ࠊњᏖഎ䌘䞥ⱘՓ⫼ᳳ䰤ˈৃ㛑Ӯࡴ࠻ᔧࠡ䌘䞥կ䳔ϸッ ⱘ㒧ᵘᗻ⶯ⳒˈϨᣕ㓁䗚ಲ䌁াӮՓ䲾⧗䍞⒮䍞໻ˈᰒ✊ᰃϡৃᣕ㓁ⱘDŽ໽䞣䗚ಲ䌁㗠䴲䰡ޚˈĀ༈⮯ए༈ 㛮⮯ए㛮ā䖭⾡⊏ᷛϡ⊏ᴀᓣⱘ䋻Ꮥᬓㄪ᮴⊩ҢḍᴀϞ㓧㾷Ꮦഎⱘ䌘䞥य़࡯DŽ㗗㰥ࠄЁ䭓ᳳ໪∛ऴℒ๲䞣Ё ᵶϟ⿏ˈ⛁䪅ᣕ㓁⌕ߎˈ಴ℸˈ༂༂㸠ৃ㛑Ӯ䗝ᢽ䗚ಲ䌁ܜ㸠ˈ䰡ޚᢽᴎⱘᮍᓣDŽ ೒ 15˖݀ᓔᏖഎᣕ㓁䗚ಲ䌁 ˄ғܗ˅ �4000 �2000 0 2000 4000 6000 01 /2 7 02 /1 0 02 /2 4 03 /0 9 03 /2 3 04 /0 6 04 /2 0 05 /0 4 05 /1 8 06 /0 1 06 /1 5 06 /2 9 07 /1 3 07 /2 7 08 /1 0 08 /2 4 ᆇࠡ෇ׂ ᆇࠡݍদ ᆇࠡࡊ෇ׂ MM/DD 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 16˖݀ᓔᏖഎ᪡԰ࠄᳳ䞣 ˄ғܗ˅ -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 01 -0 6 02 -0 3 03 -0 2 03 -3 0 04 -2 7 05 -2 5 06 -2 2 07 -2 0 08 -1 7 09 -1 4 10 -1 9 11 -1 6 12 -1 4 ༂⼼ࠄᳳ䞣 ℷಲ䌁ࠄᳳ䞣 䗚ಲ䌁ࠄᳳ䞣 m 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 䖥޴਼ݙ A 㙵ݙ䚼⌕ࡼᗻ៪ᇚ㓈ᣕᑇ䴭ˈԚ 10~11 ᳜ձ✊䴶Ј⌕ࡼᗻᬊ㋻ⱘ⢊މDŽ䖥޴਼ᴹⳟˈҢ䌘 䞥կ㒭ᮍ䴶ˈ䖥ᳳ⃻㕢㒣⌢᭄᥂㡃དˈܼ⧗亢䰽أདᢀछˈ⛁䪅⌕ߎ೑ݙ㙵Ꮦ䗳ᑺ៪ᇚᬒ㓧ˈҢ 1ᑈᳳҎ⇥ Ꮥᇍ㕢ܗ NDF ᴹⳟˈϞ਼ NDF ᇣᐙ䍄ԢˈҢПࠡϔ਼ⱘᑈݙ催⚍ 6.45 ಲ䇗㟇Ϟ਼᳿ⱘ 6.44˗Ң䌘䞥䳔∖ ᮍ䴶ˈ8᳜㟇Ҟ IPOᅵᡍ᭄䞣Ў䳊ˈ㗠 9᳜䰤ଂ㙵㾷⽕᭄䞣䕗 8᳜ᇣᐙಲ䇗DŽ಴ℸˈ䖥޴਼ݙˈA㙵ݙ䚼⌕ A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹਼᡹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2012ᑈ 8᳜ 27᮹ 7 ࡼᗻৃ㛑㓈ᣕᑇ䴭DŽԚᰃࠄಯᄷᑺˈᇸ݊೼ 10~11᳜ˈ䱣ⴔ㾷⽕催ዄⱘࠄᴹˈࡴϞথ㸠Ҏ㸹ܙञᑈ᡹෎ᴀ㒧 ᴳৢ IPOᅵḌৃ㛑䞡ᮄᘶ໡ˈA㙵ݙ䚼⌕ࡼᗻձ✊෾ᖻDŽ ೒ 17˖SHIBOR ˄%˅ 0 2 4 6 8 10 01 /0 1 01 /1 5 01 /2 9 02 /1 2 02 /2 6 03 /1 1 03 /2 5 04 /0 8 04 /2 2 05 /0 6 05 /2 0 06 /0 3 06 /1 7 07 /0 1 07 /1 5 07 /2 9 08 /1 2 ُྠ ྡྷᄻ ֝ᄻ MM/DD 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 18˖Ҏ⇥Ꮥܥ㕢ܗ∛⥛ ˄CNY/USD˅ �0.3 �0.2 �0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 11 /0 1 11 /0 3 11 /0 5 11 /0 7 11 /0 9 11 /1 1 12 /0 1 12 /0 3 12 /0 5 12 /0 7 ಖඬഃďဗĐ ��ၥ1') ຣޮ YY/MM 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ᡩᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂˖ᑇᖗ䴭⇨ㄝᕙѸᯧᴎӮ ∛ЄЁ೑ࠊ䗴Ϯ PMI ߱ؐ䎠㟇 47.8ˈݡ⃵ᠧय़њ㒣⌢㾕ᑩ໡㢣ⱘ乘ᳳˈ੐৕އㄪሖࡴ໻ᬓㄪࠎ▔࡯ᑺ ໄজ䍋ˈԚᰃᰒ✊Ё༂೼ᬒᵒᬓㄪϞձ✊䗝ᢽ᮴ࡼѢ㹋ˈ⬏佐ܙ伹ᓣⱘഄᮍ⠜Āಯϛғāߌᰒഄᮍᬓᑰⱘ᳝ ᖗ᮴࡯DŽ ᘏⱘᴹ䇈ˈᏖഎᇍѢᅣ㾖㾕ᑩ໡㢣੠ᬒᵒᬓㄪࡴⷕⱘ乘ᳳᏆ㒣䍞ᴹ䍞ᔅˈѺᑇᖗ䴭⇨ഄ䗝ᢽ᥹ফњ䖭ϔ ⦄ᅲDŽ㗠എݙ䌘䞥䴶Ⳍᇍᑇ䴭ˈᄬ䞣䌘䞥೼Ӵၦǃए㥃ǃ䕃ӊǃ⬉ᄤㄝᇥ᭄ᵓഫϞᢅಶপᱪⱘᔅᑇ㸵⢊ᗕ乘 䅵ձ✊ৃҹ㓈ᣕDŽ ᳾ᴹᠧ⸈䖭ϔᑇ㸵ⱘڀ࣪಴㋴ৃ㛑ᰃ˖˄ 1˅QE3乘ᳳ㨑ぎঞ 9᳜ӑ⃻ܗऎ亢䰽಴㋴㒻㓁থ䝉˗˄ 2˅೑ݙ 㒣⌢ᲈ䴆ߎ㒣⌢๲䗳ሖ䴶П໪亢䰽ˈ՟བֵᠬ䖱㑺亢䰽ᲈ䴆ǃ䫊㸠ണ䋺⥛▔๲ㄝㄝDŽ䖭⾡ᚙމϟৃ㛑䖢ᴹᏖ എ䍙䎠ঞ៤䭓㙵ⱘ㸹䎠DŽ䖭⾡ᚙމϔᮺথ⫳ˈᇚӮᦤկҞᑈ↨䕗䲒ᕫⱘѸᯧᴎӮˈ⡍߿ᰃ݇⊼ᯢᑈϮ㒽乘ᳳ ձ✊᳝䕗ᖿ๲䭓ⱘए㥃ǃ亳ક佂᭭ǃӴၦǃ䕃ӊǃ⬉ᄤㄝᵓഫЁ㞾ϟ㗠Ϟⱘ䗝㙵ᴎӮDŽ಴ℸˈᡩ䌘ㄪ⬹Ϟ៥ Ӏⱘᓎ䆂ᰃᇍᔧࠡ㒘ড়ҹϮ㒽Ўᇐ৥࡯∖এӾᄬⳳˈৠᯊᑇᖗ䴭⇨ഄㄝᕙѸᯧᴎӮDŽ 䞡㽕᭄᥂㾖ᆳ ೒ 19˖Ϟ਼㸠Ϯ㸼⦄ ˄%˅ -1.0 -1.0 -2.2 0.5 0.0 -1.2 0.4 -3.1 -2.3 0.4 -1.3 -0.5 0.3 -2.1 -0.9 -1.2 -0.4 -1.5 0.0 -2.8 -1.3 -0.6 -1.8 -3.2 -1.7 2.0 2.6 1.3 0.9 -0.2 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 ܼ 䚼 A㙵 CS ⷇ ⊍ ⷇ ࣪ CS ✸ ⚁ CS ᳝ 㡆 䞥 ሲ CS ⬉ ࡯ ঞ ݀ ⫼ џ Ϯ CS 䩶 䪕 CS ෎ ⸔ ࣪ Ꮉ CS ᓎ ㄥ CS ᓎ ᴤ CS 䕏 Ꮉ ࠊ 䗴 CS ᴎ Ẅ CS ⬉ ࡯ 䆒 ໛ CS ೑ 䰆 ݯ Ꮉ CS ≑ 䔺 CS ଚ 䌌 䳊 ଂ CS 令 佂 ᮙ ␌ CS ᆊ ⬉ CS 㒎 㒛 ᳡ 㺙 CS ए 㥃 CS 亳 ક 佂 ᭭ CS ݰ ᵫ ⠻ ⏨ CS 䫊 㸠 CS 䴲 䫊 㸠 䞥 㵡 CS ᠓ ഄ ѻ CS Ѹ 䗮 䖤 䕧 CS ⬉ ᄤ ܗ ఼ ӊ CS 䗮 ֵ CS 䅵 ㅫ ᴎ CS Ӵ ၦ CS 㓐 ড় ऩ਼⍼䎠ᐙ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 Ϟ਼໻Ⲭ䳛㤵ᬊ 䎠 ៤ˈ䭓ᗻ㸠Ϯ㸼⦄䕗 དDŽϔ㑻㸠ϮЁ䗮ֵǃ ⬉ᄤܗ఼ӊǃ䅵ㅫㄝ㸠 Ϯ⍼ᐙሙࠡˈ᳝㡆䞥 ሲǃ෎⸔࣪Ꮉǃ೑䰆ݯ Ꮉㄝ⬹᳝ᬊ⍼ 㗠˗᠓ഄ ѻǃᓎㄥ੠亳ક佂᭭㸠 Ϯϟ䎠䕗໮DŽ A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹਼᡹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2012ᑈ 8᳜ 27᮹ 8 ೒ 20˖㾘῵಴ᄤ˄໻ǃЁǃᇣⲬᣛ᭄ϢϞ䆕㓐ᣛⱘⳌᇍ䍄࢓˅ 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80 2010-01-04 2010-02-22 2010-04-06 2010-05-19 2010-07-05 2010-08-16 2010-09-30 2010-11-18 2010-12-30 2011-02-18 2011-04-01 2011-05-18 2011-06-30 2011-08-11 2011-09-23 2011-11-11 2011-12-23 2012-02-14 2012-03-27 2012-05-15 2012-06-27 2012-08-08 ໻Ⲭᷛޚ࣪ ЁⲬᷛޚ࣪ ᇣⲬᷛޚ࣪ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 21˖㸠Ϯ 2012ᑈⲜ߽乘⌟বࡼ -0.06 -0.14 -0.12 -0.19 -0.16 -0.10 -0.08 -0.08 -0.03 -0.10 -0.07 -0.02 0.01 -0.10 -0.11 -0.01 0.06 -0.06 -0.01 -0.02 -0.08 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.30 -0.25 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 ܼ 䚼 A㙵 SW ݰ ᵫ ⠻ ⏨ SW 䞛 ᥬ SW ࣪ Ꮉ SW 咥 㡆 䞥 ሲ SW ᳝ 㡆 䞥 ሲ SW ᓎ ㄥ ᓎ ᴤ SW ᴎ Ẅ 䆒 ໛ SW ⬉ ᄤ SW Ѹ 䖤 䆒 ໛ SW ֵ ᙃ 䆒 ໛ SW ᆊ ⫼ ⬉ ఼ SW 亳 ક 佂 ᭭ SW 㒎 㒛 ᳡ 㺙 SW 䕏 Ꮉ ࠊ 䗴 SW ए 㥃 ⫳ ⠽ SW ݀ ⫼ џ Ϯ SW Ѹ 䗮 䖤 䕧 SW ᠓ ഄ ѻ SW 䞥 㵡 ᳡ ࡵ SW ଚ Ϯ 䌌 ᯧ SW 令 佂 ᮙ ␌ SW ֵ ᙃ ᳡ ࡵ SW 㓐 ড় 1਼ব࣪⥛ 1᳜ব࣪⥛ 3᳜ব࣪⥛ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖ᳱ䰇∌㓁ϔ㟈乘ᳳˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 ೒ 22˖㸠Ϯ䌘䞥䞣㛑ⲥ⌟ 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.5 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 1.3 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 CS ⷇ ⊍ ⷇ ࣪ CS ✸ ⚁ CS ᳝ 㡆 䞥 ሲ CS ⬉ ࡯ ঞ ݀ Ă CS 䩶 䪕 CS ෎ ⸔ ࣪ Ꮉ CS ᓎ ㄥ CS ᓎ ᴤ CS 䕏 Ꮉ ࠊ 䗴 CS ᴎ Ẅ CS ⬉ ࡯ 䆒 ໛ CS ೑ 䰆 ݯ Ꮉ CS ≑ 䔺 CS ଚ 䌌 䳊 ଂ CS 令 佂 ᮙ ␌ CS ᆊ ⬉ CS 㒎 㒛 ᳡ 㺙 CS ए 㥃 CS 亳 ક 佂 ᭭ CS ݰ ᵫ ⠻ ⏨ CS 䫊 㸠 CS 䴲 䫊 㸠 䞥 㵡 CS ᠓ ഄ ѻ CS Ѹ 䗮 䖤 䕧 CS ⬉ ᄤ ܗ ఼ ӊ CS 䗮 ֵ CS 䅵 ㅫ ᴎ CS Ӵ ၦ CS 㓐 ড় ᤶ᠟⥛਼ᑇഛ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖WindˈЁֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼 㸼 2˖2012ᑈϟञᑈЏ㽕ㄪ⬹䞡㽕џӊ∛ᘏ ᯊᯊ䯈� ᳾ᴹ乘ᳳⱘџӊ� ᇍ೑ݙ㒣⌢੠Ꮦഎⱘᕅડ� 2012ᑈ 8᳜ϟᯀ 䕀㵡䗮䆩⚍ℷᓣ᥼ߎ 乘䅵ҹ㵡䌘ЎЏǃᏺᴹ๲䞣䌘䞥ǃᅠ୘Ѹᯧᴎࠊ 2012ᑈϟञᑈ 㑶߽⿢䇗ᭈ ᦤ催ϞᏖ݀ৌߚ㑶ᛣᜓ 2012ᑈ 8᳜ᑩ 乘ᳳ“ֱ䰽ᡩ䌘ᮄᬓकϝᴵ”೼ 8 ᳜ᑩܼࠡ䚼ߎৄ ᠽ໻ᡩ䌘㣗ೈǃᦤछᡩ䌘↨՟ǃᬒᵒㅵࠊǃޣᇥᅵᡍ࡯ᑺ˗ЎᏖഎ ᓩܹ䭓ᳳᡩ䌘㗙䖯㸠ࠊᑺᅝᥦ 2012ᑈϝᄷᑺ Ёᇣᵓ੠߯Ϯᵓ㾷⽕催ዄ ϔᄷᑺ 37ғ㙵ˈѠᄷᑺ 28ғ㙵ˈϝᄷᑺ 68.9ғ㙵ˈಯᄷᑺ 100.6ғ㙵DŽ 2012ᑈ 2-3ᄷᑺ 䆕ࠌᏖഎᴎࠊᬍ䴽 ϔⳈҹᴹˈϔ㑻Ꮦഎথ㸠䖛໻䖛ᖿᑓЎѠ㑻ᏖഎᑓЎ䆳⮙DŽ 2012ᑈϝᄷᑺ ഄᮍ㵡䌘ᑇৄ䌘ѻ䆕ࠌ࣪Ϣഄᮍᬓᑰᤶሞ 䌘ѻ䆕ࠌ࣪ᇚ䳔∖໻䞣ⱘ⌕ࡼᗻˈ㢹Ϣᤶሞ㸨᥹ϡདˈӮᇍ䫊㸠䌘 Ң㾘῵಴ᄤⳟ ໻ˈ ᇣⲬᏖഎ㸼⦄䖯ϔℹ ߚ࣪ ᇣˈⲬᣛ᭄ⳌᇍϞ 䆕ᣛ᭄᳝᠔Ϟछ 㗠ˈ໻ ⲬǃЁⲬ㙵ᣛ᭄ⳌᇍϞ 䆕ᣛ᭄᳝᠔ϟ䎠DŽ Ϟ਼໮᭄㸠Ϯᑇ ഛᤶ᠟⥛䕗ࠡϔ਼᳝ ᠔ϟ䰡˗䴲䫊㸠䞥㵡ǃ 䫊㸠ǃ᠓ഄѻǃݰᵫ⠻ ⏨ǃए㥃ǃ亳ક佂᭭ㄝ 㸠Ϯᤶ᠟⥛ϟ⒥ᐙᑺ 䕗໻ˈ㗠⬉ᄤܗ఼ӊǃ Ӵၦㄝ㸠Ϯⱘᤶ᠟⥛ ᳝᠔ᦤछDŽ� Ϟ਼ $ 㙵ᭈԧⲜ ߽乘⌟㒻㓁ϟ䇗DŽҢ䖛 এϔϾ᳜ⱘ㸠ϮⲜ߽ 乘⌟䇗ᭈᚙމⳟˈ࣪ Ꮉǃݰᵫ⠻⏨ǃ咥㡆䞥 ሲ੠㒎㒛᳡㺙ㄝᵓഫ ϟ䇗ᐙᑺ䕗໻ 㗠ˈ݀⫼ џϮᵓഫ⬹᳝Ϟ䇗DŽ� A㙵Ꮦഎㄪ⬹਼᡹ 䇋ࡵᖙ䯙䇏ℷ᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ䚼ߚ 2012ᑈ 8᳜ 27᮹ 9 ᯊᯊ䯈� ᳾ᴹ乘ᳳⱘџӊ� ᇍ೑ݙ㒣⌢੠Ꮦഎⱘᕅડ� ѻ䋼䞣ᔶ៤ᚆ㾖乘ᳳˈ᳔ৢކߏ䫊㸠ᔶ៤໻ᑩDŽ 2012ᑈϝᄷᑺ ೑⇥ӥ䯆㒆㽕 ᏆϞ᡹೑ࡵ䰶 㨑ˈᅲᏺ㭾ӥ؛ࠊᑺˈ֗ 䖯ሙ⇥⍜䌍 ᦤˈछ䕀ൟֵᖗDŽ 2012ᑈ 9᳜ ⃻؎Ѩ೑㄀ѠϾ؎ࡵࠄᳳ催ዄ ড়䅵 794ғ⃻ܗ؎ࡵࠄᳳˈ݊Ё㽓⧁⠭ࠄᳳ 583ғ⃻ܗDŽ 2012ᑈ 9᳜Ёᯀ 㕢㘨ټ䆂ᙃӮ䆂 ᕜ᳝ৃ㛑ᰃ㕢㘨ټއᅮҞᑈᰃ৺᥼ߎ QE3ⱘ᳔ৢᳳ䰤˗ᇍ QE3ⱘ乘ᳳᇚ᥼催亢䰽䌘ѻӋḐˈҢ㗠᥼催䗮㚔乘ᳳDŽ 2012ᑈ 9-10᳜ 㕢೑ᘏ㒳׭䗝Ҏゲ䗝 䯤ˈ䗄݊ᇍ೑ݙ໪џࡵⱘᬓㄪЏᓴ ݇⊼㕢೑ϸܮᘏ㒳׭䗝Ҏⱘゲ䗝Џᓴˈ݊ ᇍ೑ݙ䌘ᴀᏖഎ੠ᅣ㾖㒣 ⌢ঞᬓㄪ乘ᳳ᳝䞡㽕ᕅડDŽ 2012ᑈ 10᳜Ёᯀ ܮकܿ໻ীᓔ ഄᮍᬓᑰᤶሞᅠ៤ˈᮄϔ䕂ᬓ⊏䫺ᷛ䌯ᓔྟDŽ 2012ᑈϟञᑈ ໻Ⲭ㙵ϞᏖᢑ㸔 㵡䌘㾘῵乘䅵䖒ࠄ 330ғܗDŽ 2012ᑈܼᑈ ܼᑈѨ೑ࠄᳳ؎ࡵ 5383ғ⃻ܗ ᛣ໻߽ǃ㽓⧁⠭ǃ⠅ᇨ݄ǃ㨵㧘⠭੠Ꮰ㜞ߚ߿ऴ 53.6%ǃ34.5%ǃ1%ǃ3.61%ǃ7.21%DŽ 2012ᑈᑩ Ҁ䛑䆂ᅮк༅ᬜ ⇨׭䯂乬ǃ㡖㛑ޣᥦᇚ೼ℸПࠡ៤Ўၦԧ݇⊼⛺⚍DŽ 䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖Ёֵ䆕ࠌⷨお䚼ᭈ⧚ǃ乘⌟ ߚߚᵤᏜໄᯢ Analyst Certification Џ㽕䋳䋷᪄ݭᴀⷨお᡹ਞܼ䚼៪䚼ߚݙᆍⱘⷨおߚᵤᏜ೼ℸໄᯢ˖˄ i˅ᴀⷨお᡹ਞ᠔㸼䗄ⱘӏԩ㾖⚍ഛ㊒ޚഄড᯴њϞ䗄↣ԡߚᵤ ᏜϾҎᇍᷛⱘ䆕ࠌ੠থ㸠Ҏⱘⳟ⊩˗˄ ii˅䆹ߚᵤᏜ᠔ᕫ᡹䝀ⱘӏԩ㒘៤䚼ߚ᮴䆎ᰃ೼䖛এǃ⦄೼ঞᇚᴹഛϡӮⳈ᥹៪䯈᥹ഄϢⷨお᡹ਞ ᠔㸼䗄ⱘ݋ԧᓎ䆂៪㾖⚍Ⳍ㘨㋏DŽThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. ϔ㠀ᗻໄᯢ ℸ᡹ਞᑊ䴲䩜ᇍ៪ᛣ೒䗕থ㒭៪Ўӏԩህ䗕থǃথᏗǃৃ ᕫࠄ៪Փ⫼ℸ᡹ਞ㗠ՓЁֵ䆕ࠌ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌঞ݊䰘ሲᴎᵘ˄ ҹϟ㒳⿄ĀЁ ֵ䆕ࠌā˅ 䖱ডᔧഄⱘ⊩ᕟ៪⊩㾘៪ৃ㟈ՓЁֵ䆕ࠌফࠊѢⳌ݇⊩ᕟ៪⊩㾘ⱘӏԩഄऎǃ೑ᆊ៪݊ᅗㅵ䕪ऎඳⱘ݀⇥៪ሙ⇥DŽ䰸䴲