专业论文翻译

专业论文翻译 第1页 西南交通大学本科毕业 How can the quality of rail services in Tokyo be further improved? Abstract This study aims to examine the preconditions that affect the quality of railway services in Tokyo and its policy implications. Objective evaluation of the quality makes it clear that further investment to improve it is necessary in the future, and that passengers are willing to pay for it. However, some classic features of railways in Tokyo hinder improvement. Particularly, their organizational structure, characterized as territorial fragmentation, makes it difficult to internalize the external `network' effect and maximize users’ benefits on a metropolitan scale. Therefore, transport policy needs to transform railway organizations to make further investments efficiently from a social cost/benefit point of view. Further, it is also essential to devise new methodologies to stimulate service promotion of railways as a private business, including financial support for investment and organizational transformation. 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Urban railway; Service quality; External network effect; Incentives for making investment 1. Introduction Public transport is regarded as one vital element in creating sustainable cities that have easy accessibility for the aged and are environmentally friendly concerning energy consumption. As such, railways in Tokyo will play an essential role in future of the so-called `matured society', because a substantial proportion of mobility depends on them. In spite of this, it has been widely discussed that the level of services of railways in Tokyo is considered unsatisfactory, compared with other `World Cities', such as New York, London and Paris (London Research Centre, 1999). It means that railway services of Tokyo are characterized by `congestion' in cars and stations, despite having a comparatively high level of punctuality, reliability and frequency. Thus, as relieving congestion is closely associated with quality of life and sustainable development (Onishi,1993), it should be the focal point of policy issue discussions concerning transport 第2页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 and regional planning in Tokyo. Despite the urgent need to promote quality of life and sustainable city structures through public transport and railway policies in Tokyo, little attempt has yet been made to examine essential policy issues to improve railway services on the presumption of a further ageing `matured society' with low economic growth in the future. The most controversial issue is how to make a large scale investment such as building new lines to improve accessibility and quadruple tracking to relieve congestion. Especially in the current situation of Tokyo where a considerable number of lines form a dense network which is easy to be accessed from most parts of the built-up area, it is highly essential to build `missing links' that connect different lines or terminals separated by relatively short distances. Policy should cope with such questions as to what extent further investment is needed to upgrade the railway network in Tokyo, and eventually quality of services, who will bear the cost of investment and how the investment will be financed. From this perspective, it is worthwhile to conduct research that addresses answer these issues. The aim of this study is to examine the preconditions of railway service levels in Tokyo nd policies that could be implemented to ameliorate current conditions. Particularly, it a focuses upon devising countermeasures to stimulate the formation of a more efficient transport network in the built-up metropolitan region with approximately 50 km radius from the centre of Tokyo. Therefore, major importance is attached on a pragmatic approach rather than a theoretical one. The argument here is entirely based upon the notion that railway investment should be made on the basis of cost/benefit criteria, in addition to the extent of return on capital investment, even if the projects are organized by private firms. This paper consists of three parts. The first part objectively evaluates the quality of railway services in Tokyo on the premise that consumer preference has become more diverse. It also discusses the necessity of making further large scale investments in the future to accommodate railway demand in the `matured' economy. The second part explores typical features of railways in Tokyo and sheds light on issues of public policy and organizational structure concerning railway investment and operation that should be 第3页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 resolved in order to achieve the targeted network performance in the future. The third part examines policy implications on railway service improvement based upon the views put forward in the previous parts. 2. Present and future state of railway services in Tokyo 2.1. Evaluation of the current level of railway services There are various types of railways in Tokyo, namely inter-city services, suburban surface lines and the underground network for intra-city mobility in the built-up area. Whilst it is recognized that railways are part of an urban infrastructure which supports the daily life of people and economic activity in Tokyo, they are at the same time profit seeking businesses operated by free-standing private firms, such as JR-East, Eidan and many private firms in case of Tokyo, and each has a `territory'. This aspect is much different from cities abroad where considerable governmental subsidies contribute to the development and operation of railways (van de Velde, 1999). Underpinned by a large number of passengers, generated from densely built-up areas surrounding stations, the expectation that Tokyo would grow because of an influx from other parts of the country, and the development of additional lucrative side businesses such as property development, retail and amusement, railway companies have grown and established their `business territories' around the lines (Kanemoto and Kiyono, 1993, 1995). Balance sheets of private railway companies in Tokyo indicate that fares are determined on the basis of the rate-of-return principle which fully covers costs of investment and operation (Mizutani, 1994). This means that costs for improving quality of service, such as relieving congestion, are offset by fare increases. Thus, decision-making on whether investment will or will not be made is up to the companies, based on suggestions from various authorities like the National Council for Transport Policy. During decades of high economic growth through the 1980s, it was seen by railway companies that investments were relatively easily paid off because of rapid increase of residents and passengers, and at the same time it was not difficult to reach consensus for raising fare. However, since the end of the bubble economy in the early 1990s, pessimistic 第4页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 views towards the future of railway companies made them hesitant about making investments (Okamura and Ieda,1999). Especially, they are very reluctant to increase their debt. As far as quality of service is concerned, the degree of congestion of railways in Tokyo is so heavy during peak hours that the quality of life of the people who commute to and from the centre is degraded to an unsatisfactory level (Ieda, 1995). It is revealed that the extent of congestion during morning peak hours in Tokyo is much worse than that in the other World Cities, such as New York, London and Paris, whereas higher quality of punctuality, reliability and frequency is achieved in Tokyo (Ota, 1995). It has also been shown that the outward expansion of Tokyo's built-up area has resulted in an increase of journey to work time. In order to cope with congestion, increasing train frequency is seen as one of the most effective solutions by railway operating organizations, but this results in decreased speed, as shown in Fig. 2, which illustrates the large difference in train speed between peak and off-peak hours. As demand for railways has increased along with the growth of Tokyo as a metropolis, train speeds during morning peak hours have decreased. The attitude of railway companies that intend to reduce the congestion rate affects their train diagram, because it is revealed every year to the public as one of the most revealing indices of quality of services which directly affects the reputation of each company. Given that the congestion rate is arguably over-emphasized as a service index, it can be suggested that quality of railway services should be evaluated based upon various points of view, as the expense of consumer preference is generally increasing. When analyzing morning peak hours, the index should be taken into consideration the inversely proportional congestion and speed. Using an equation which transfers decreasing utility level by congestion to increasing travel time, these two can be integrated into a `discomfort of commuting' index, under the assumption that congestion and travel time are closely associated with the level of discomfort. Fig. 3 shows the discomfort ranking of railway lines in Tokyo. It is clear that discomfort from decreased speed constitutes a considerable proportion of the index on some lines, and thus increasing frequency by sacrificing speed is not always a way to increase the quality of service. Furthermore, the problem of 第5页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 congestion is not limited to morning peak hours. Congestion from early evening to midnight is also a major source of complaints. Moreover, trains after morning peak hours are also crowded because of a significant drop in their frequency. This implies that a considerable number of passengers shift from the peak to the so-called `shoulders of the peak', as companies are increasingly adopting flexi-time working systems. On the whole, railway service should meet the broadening customer requirements. One typical example is high speed services with reserved seats for which passengers pay extra fares. However, deficient capacity makes it difficult to provide such services during morning peak hours on most lines. Therefore, it is essential to make investments and expand the capacity of facilities and equipment to provide a wide range of services. In addition, travel patterns are also becoming more diverse. Hitherto simplified commuting traffic, which was largely dominated by radial transit between suburbs and the city centre, is becoming more complex, consisting of various travel patterns. This is closely associated with the changing metropolitan structure, from mono-centric to poly-centric, as a result of rapidly growing nuclei cities in the suburbs, such as Yoko-hama, Omiya and Chiba. There is a strong need to promote accessibility to airports as well, as Tokyo has grown into a World City with an agglomeration of high order economic activity. Thus, as well as expanding capacity, creating a more efficient network is an effective way to meet future demand. 2.2. A future perspective of railway services It is argued that investment to expand railway capacity in Tokyo is no longer necessary, because demand for it will diminish. In fact, the forecasts undertaken by the Ministry of Health and Welfare estimate that the population of Tokyo Metropolitan Area will peak in 2007, due to a steadily declining growth rate, a dropping birth rate and an accelerating rate of ageing. After the peak, population is predicted to gradually decrease. Along with a decrease in population, other factors which relieve congestion of trains during peak hours give reasons for optimism, such as an increasing number of companies adopting flexi-time and decreasing radial commuting, mentioned above. 第6页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 Meanwhile, future congestion can be predicted on factors that affect railway demand in Tokyo. For this, a model developed by the Transport Laboratory of the University of Tokyo is used (Ieda et al., 1999). It models behaviors of railway commuters, by taking into account quality of services; i.e. journey time and capacity, dispersal pattern of population and employment in the metropolitan area and the extent to which flexi-time is adopted. The model calculates the average congestion rate at the boundary of Central Tokyo. This model gives rise to the three following scenarios. Scenario 0: The situation in 1995. Scenario 1: Projects now under construction will be completed by 2015, leading to a 10% capacity increase. Also a decrease in the economically active population will bring about a 10% decrease from 1995 in commuters demand. Scenario 2: In 2015, in addition to Scenario 1, the economically active population and railway demand will drop another 5%, and the proportion of flexi-time commuters will increase to almost three times that of 1995 (from 11 to 30%). The forecasted results in Fig. 4 show the average congestion rate of city-centre bound radial lines during morning peak hours. This figure clearly shows that congestion which reaches an apex just after 8 o'clock will decrease from the level of 1995.5 However, even under the most optimistic Scenario 2, in which population decreases and flexi-time usage increases, the congestion rate from 7:30 to 8:30 surpasses 150%, the targeted figure proposed by the National Council for Transport Policy in 1985. Hence, it can be concluded that further investment is needed to enable railway companies to provide higher quality of services. To alleviate congestion, it is essential to increase capacity by increasing the number of tracks as well, such as the quadrupling currently being undertaken by some private railway companies in Tokyo, in addition to increasing the number of cars and train frequency. At the same time, expanding capacity will increase train service selection, notably trains that range from express to local. Railway commuters in Tokyo are without a doubt unsatisfied with congestion, journey time and inconvenience at terminals. Thus, it can be hypothesized that passengers are willing to pay for service improvements. Using the Contingent Valuation Method (CVM), 第7页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 a questionnaire was undertaken to explore how much extra fares that railway passengers are willing to pay. Respondents were asked how much extra they are willing to pay for an improvement of the following. 1. Enabling passengers to always take seats. 2. Shortening journey time by 5 min. 3. Shortening journey time by 10 min. 4. Relieving congestion such that passengers can read newspapers without disturbance (150% congestion rate). The survey was undertaken on the Odakyu and the Den-en-toshi lines, both of which are radial lines for commuters from the southwestern suburbs of Tokyo. Congestion rates during morning peak hour near Central Tokyo were 191 and 195%, respectively in 1998. Each line had 300 respondents, all of whom mainly use railways during morning peak hours with journey times estimated to be about 30 min. The results Figs. 5 and 6 demonstrate cumulative willingness to pay curves in which percentages gradually decrease from 100 to 0% as willingness to pay increases. Thus, the willingness to pay at 50% gives the median amount. Both the Odakyu and the Den-en-toshi lines survey results indicate that the most highly regarded service improvement is: (1) enabling passengers to always take seats, followed by (3) shortening journey time by 10 min, (4) relieving congestion such that passengers can read newspaper without disturbance and (2) shortening journey time by 5 min. Therefore, it is clear that railway users in Tokyo are willing to pay a considerable amount for improved services, especially during peak hours. It is worth adding that shortening journey times and relieving congestion were also highly regarded as indices to be improved. 3. Policy implications concerning railway service improvement Recognizing that there are a lot of issues to be tackled to improve railway service levels in Tokyo, this section discusses implications of practical policies and strategies that should or should not be examined. 第8页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 First, decision-making to undertake railway investment should be made on the basis of a cost/benefit analysis. Although substantial sums have been invested under the initiative of each organisation, decision-making has somewhat lacked a comparison of social costs to benefits. Investment to reduce the average congestion rate of railways in Tokyo to their transport policy target of 150% would cost about five trillion yen which includes projects like `missing-links', access to airports and so on. At the same time, the benefits of shortening journey time and relieving congestion is estimated to be eight trillion yen in this study, giving a cost/benefit ratio of 1.6. This indicates a need to further invest in railways. It is clear that investments should not be assessed merely by criteria of project finances, but also by the results of a cost/benefit analysis which enables authorities to make fair comparisons with other kinds of investment. Next, railway service levels should be regularly improved on the basis of objective evidence from customer satisfaction indices that evaluate congestion, speed, and punctuality and so on. These types of assessments will encourage operators to improve services, make investments and eventually change the recognition that the market is monopolized. One effective option is believed to be the establishment of a neutral organization apart from public authorities and private companies that assesses quality of services serves as an intermediary among operators, passengers and policymakers. Britain employs such a system where a neutral organization called SRA (Strategic Rail Authority) sets service level targets, measures customer satisfaction and periodically rewards or penalizes operators based on their achievements (Ieda, 1998). Third, as a new way of funding railway investment, it is effective to charge more for journeys during morning and evening peak hours. At present, there is no difference in travel fares between peak and ordinary hours in Tokyo unlike cities in western countries. As in cities abroad, this imposition can be justified because investments have been made to expand facilities and equipment to meet demand during peak hours. A rough estimate indicates that if a 25% fare increase is imposed on journeys to and from the city centre for two hours during mornings and evenings, 200 billion yen per year could be obtained. This could account for approximately 40% of the total annual investment in Tokyo. This is 第9页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 based on the assumption that widespread automatic ticket checking and stored fare (or IC) cards will enable operators to check such complicated fares. Along with creating investment revenue, this countermeasure is effective for channeling demand into ordinary hours by discouraging passengers from using expensive services during peak periods. Fourth, it is worth examining the possibility of additional taxation to internalize effects that others besides railway passengers should also bear as part of railway investment costs. Even during the period of high economic growth, it was widely discussed that external impact on property in the vicinity of newly built railway lines, arising from increases in population and property value, should be internalized by a property tax. In addition, special business taxes on firms located in the city centre, gasoline taxes and environment taxes are other means of generating revenue as those working in the city centre and/or using cars will benefit from railway service improvement and road congestion reduction by a modal shift from cars to trains. Asking indirect beneficiaries to bear railway costs makes it essential that the concept of railways being public infrastructure and private business is widely recognized. Finally, organizations fragmented by territory should be transformed into a more functionally integrated structure. Currently, operation and management of railways in Tokyo is characterized as a structure formed by territorially independent organizations. Each organization holds all assets, including land, facilities and equipment; each provides services through operation, and each is totally responsible for everything that happens involving the railway lines. This long-standing structure hinders maximization of user benefit, as explained above. 4. Conclusions On 27th January, 2000, the National Council for Transport Policy published a new report with regard to the future of railway networks in Tokyo. It stressed the further necessity of railway service improvements, such as relieving congestion, promoting accessibility etc., by the targeted year 2015. Planned railway lines are objectively evaluated and classified into three categories (A1, A2 and B), in accordance with 第10页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 construction priority. A predictable low-growth ageing `matured' society in the future will attach more importance to criteria of social cost/benefit and investment efficiency. It is also clear that investments which improve the existing network like connecting `missing links' are given priority. Moreover, the report implies the necessity of devising methods to eliminate the investment reluctance of railway companies through establishing subsidies and organizations. This study coincides with the report mentioned above and is based upon he recognition that railway services in Tokyo should be further improved as an t infrastructure of paramount importance for the people and economic activities of a World City. Objectively evaluating various indices clearly indicates that quality of services will not significantly improve even under an optimistic scenario where train use during peak hours will decrease, unless large-scale investments are made to increase network efficiency and expand line capacity. At the same time, a survey shows that even though passengers are willing to pay for service improvement, investment intentions have diminished among organizations concerned. In light of these circumstances, a policy that devises ways to boost investment incentives among rail operators is of utmost importance. Meanwhile, the organizational structure of railways in Tokyo is characteristically fragmented such that each railway company has considerable autonomy in providing services. Operation is implemented under a fairly monopolistic situation in terms of modal choice. As shown in the explanation of two extreme investment methods for building a new line; i.e. the `competing type' and the `complementary type', fragmented organizations hinder maximizing user benefit, since operators are based upon the profit-seeking criteria of private firms. In order to break through these impasses, policies should be implemented. Among these policies, one that suggests a transformation from the present territorially fragmented organizations to a functionally integrated structure has received much attention. This system has been enforced in western countries, where asset holding and operation belong to different entities. Emulating western cities will likely increase subsidization efficiency, give incentive to make investments and eventually improve quality of services. On the other hand, it is also widely discussed that a vertically separated system has flaws in that responsibility for mishaps, such as accidents, loss of punctuality and so on, 第11页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 becoming ambiguous. In fact, Britain's system has received much criticism that its quality of services has significantly diminished since the privatizations of British Rail into Railtrack and independent operators, mainly because of the ambiguity of responsibilities. The biggest problem is evaluating where responsibility should be placed for accidents or delays: on operational mistakes or facility flaws. Examination of cities abroad clearly shows that there is no ideal system in terms of the organizational structure of railways. Therefore, what is essential in devising transport policy regarding railways in the World Cities like Tokyo is to broaden the scope of people involved, further investigate objective matters, discuss possibilities to break through impasses and implement them. 第12页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 怎样才能使东京的铁路服务质量得到进一步的改善, 摘要: 本研究旨在探讨影响东京铁路服务质量的先决条件及其政策含义。服务质量的客观评价清楚地表明，进一步投资，以改善他们在将来是必要的，这样才有乘客愿意消费。然而，在东京铁路一些经典特征阻碍着这种改善。特别是，他们的组织结构，领土分散的特点，使得它很难顾及到内部与外部网络的作用，从而最大限度地提高大城市规模用户的利益。因此，交通运输政策需要改变铁路组织，使他们的投资从社会成本/效益来看更有效。此外，还必须制定新的方法来刺激作为促进铁路服务私人业务，包括投资和组织的财政支持转型。本文由2001年爱思唯尔科技有限公司所有版权。 关键词:城市铁路，服务质量，外部网络的影响;做出投资奖励 1.介绍 公共交通在解决城市老年人交通问和有关能源环保消费方面是一个至关重要的因素。因此，在东京铁路将发挥重要在所谓的“成熟社会”的未来作用，因为相当比例的人口流动性取决于他们。尽管它在东京的铁路服务水平已经受争议，相比其他“世界城市”，如纽约，伦敦和巴黎(伦敦研究中心，1999年)。这意味着，东京铁路服务的特点是“拥挤”的车站，尽管有一个比较高层次的准时性，可靠性和频率。因此，作为缓解拥堵是与生命和可持续发展(大西，1993)的质量有关，它应该是政策的问题，关于在东京的交通和区域规划讨论的焦点。 管迫切需要，推动公共交通和铁路的政策在东京的生活质量和可持续发展的城市结构，很少尝试尚未作出审查基本政策问题，以改进关于进一步老化“成熟社会”的低推定铁路服务经济增长的未来。最有争议的问题是如何使大规模投资，如建设新线，以提高可访问性和四倍跟踪，以纾缓挤塞情况。特别是在当前东京，相当数量的情况行形成一个密集网络，很容易被从建成区大部分地区的访问，这是非常必要的建设“缺失环节”，由相对短的距离连接不同的线条或终端分离。政策应配合一下问题:为了改善现在东京铁路现状应该在那些方面做进一步的投资以及谁承担投资成本以及如何将资金利用.。从这个角度来看，是很有必要组织研究讨论来解决这些问题的。 这项研究的目的是表明目前东京的铁路状况以及那些可以改变现状的政策。特别是，它侧重于制定对策，以刺激一个在内置了大约50公里的半径大都市东京中心地区更快捷的交通网络的形成。因此，主要是重视一个务实的做法而不是理论上的。这 第13页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 里的论点是完全依据的概念，即铁路投资应该以成本为基础/效益，除了资本投资回报的程度，即使项目是由私营公司。 本文由三部分组成。第一部分在消费者偏好变得更加多样化的前提下客观评估东京的铁路服务质量。还讨论了有必要做出进一步在未来的大规模投资，在“成熟”经济对铁路的需求。第二部分探讨了在东京和棚就关于公众政策和有关铁路投资和运作的组织结构问题，应根据铁路的典型特征解决，以实现在未来针对网络性能。第三部分在之前提出意见的基础考察政策的影响对铁路服务的影响。 2东京的铁路服务的现状与未来 2.1 评价目前的铁路服务水平 在东京有各种各样的铁路，即城市间服务，郊区线，面为市内在建成区流动的地下网络。虽然人们认识到在东京铁路是一个城市基础设施，支持人民的日常生活和经济活动的一部分，他们是在同一时间，寻求独立的私人公司经营的企业利润，如JR东日本，营团和案件很多私人公司东京，每个有“领土”。这一方面与国外许多来自城市的政府补贴造成相当大的发展和铁路的经营不同(范德维德，1999年)。受惠于大量旅客从高楼林立的产生，车站周边地区，期望东京因为从该国其他地区涌入而增长，如物业发展利润丰厚的额外方业务的发展，零售，娱乐，铁路公司已发展壮大，建立了自己的领土周围“业务线”(卡内莫托和清野，1993年，1995年)。 东京的私营铁路公司的资产负债表显示，票价是对回报的，充分涵盖了投资成本率的基础上确定和运营(水谷，1994年)。这意味着，例如减轻交通挤塞的服务和提高服务质量而增加的成本，是可以被抵消的。因此关于是否进行投资铁路公司的决定会受到运输政策全国委员会等部门意见的影响 在经济高速增长20年到80年代，铁路公司的投资比较容易成功，因为居民和乘客的迅速增加，并在同一时间各个公司不难达成共识，提高票价。但是，由于在20世纪90年代初的泡沫经济，对铁路公司的悲观意见，使他们对未来进行投资(冈村和家田，1999年)犹豫不决。尤其是，他们都极不愿意增加债务。 当考虑服务质素方面时，在那些生活水平退化到一个难让人满意的程度，人群上下班时东京的铁路拥挤度是如此沉重。据透露，在东京期间的交通挤塞早上繁忙时间的程度远不如在其他世界城市，如纽约，伦敦和巴黎，而东京列车的准时性、可靠性、到达频率都比这些城市高(大田，1995年)。它也表明，东京的建成区向外扩展增加 第14页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 了上下班的行程。为了应付交通挤塞，增加列车班次是由铁路运营组织最有效的解决之一，但这个使得列车速度下降。这说明，列车在高峰和非高峰期速度差异较大。至于铁路的需求增加与东京作为国际大都会的增长一直以来，在早上繁忙时间列车的速度都有所下降。铁路公司打算减少他们的列车运行图的拥塞率，因为它是揭示每一年的服务质量的最明显的指标，而服务质量直接影响到公司在公众中的声誉。 鉴于拥塞率可以说是过分强调作为服务指标，当消费者的喜好费用普遍提高可以依据不同的观点对铁路服务质量进行评。在分析早上繁忙时间，该指数应考虑到拥挤和速度成反比。使用一个方程式，转移效用递减的拥挤程度通过增加旅游时间，这两个可以整合成一个通勤“指数”的，在这拥挤和旅行时间是密切相关的不适程度的假设下。图3显示了在东京的铁路线不满意程度排名。很明显，速度变慢带来的不满对一些线路指数构成了相当大的比例，从而通过牺牲速度来增加开行对数并不总是一种办法来增加服务的品质特性。此外，交通挤塞问题并非仅限于早上繁忙时间。拥塞从傍晚到午夜也是投诉的主要来源。此外，在早上繁忙时间之后火车也很紧张因为在这个时间开行对数减少了很多。这意味随着企业越来越多地采用弹性工时工作制度，相当多的乘客从高峰转移到所谓的“高峰期的肩膀”。 整体而言，铁路服务应满足日益增加的客户的需求。一个典型的例子是高速公路对预定席位的乘客加收额外费用。然而，在大多数线路上缺乏能力使得这些服务难以实现。因此，有必要进行投资扩大设施和设备的能力以提供广泛的服务范围。此外，旅行方式也变得更加多样化。在此之前简化的交通，这在很大程度上是由郊区和城市之间的中心辐射运输为主的日趋复杂的各种旅行方式组成。这与都市结构的不断变化密切相关，从单中心向聚为中心，作为一个迅速成长，如横滨，千叶大宫和郊区。需要有一个强有力的推动，以及可使用的机场，东京已成为一个世界同一个城市长大的高阶经济活动的聚集。因此，扩大生产能力，创造更富效率的网络是一种有效的方法来满足未来需求。 2.2 未来的铁路服务的角度 有人认为，铁路投资，东京扩大容量不再是必要的，因为它的需求会减少。事实上，所进行的预测部卫生和福利估计，东京都市区人口将达到顶峰，2007年，由于持续下降的增长速度，有下降的出生率和老龄化速度加快。高峰后，人口预计将逐步减少。随着人口在减少，其他因素纾缓繁忙时间的列车拥挤给予乐观的理由，例如， 第15页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 越来越数采用弹性工时，减少径向公司通勤，如上所述。 同时，可以预见未来的挤塞因素影响铁路在东京的需求。为此，东京正在利用模型开发的大学运输实验室(家田等人，1999)。该模型的铁路乘客的行为，通过考虑服务质量的同时，即行车时间和能力，扩散模式人口和就业都会区及在何种程度上灵活的时间通过。该模型计算出在东京中央边界的平均拥塞率。这种模式产生了三种情况。 情景1:在1995年的情况。 目前正在建设方案1:项目将于2015年完成，导致10,的容量增加。此外，在经济活动人口的减少将带来从1995年的乘客需求下降10, 场景2:在2015年，除方案1，经济上活动人口和铁路的需求将会下降另一个5,，而与弹性工时相比乘客比例将上升至近3倍，1995年(从11到30,)。在图4的预测结果。显示了城市中心方向在早上繁忙时间拥塞率平均径向线。这个数字清楚地表明挤塞，其中达到一项刚过8时将减少从1995年的水平。然而，即使在最乐观的情况，其中人口减少以及灵活的使用量增加时，从7:30到8:30拥塞率超过150,，目标数字由运输政策全国理事会提议于1985年。因此，可以得出结论，需要进一步投资，使铁路公司提供更高质量的服务。为了减轻挤塞，有必要通过增加路轨的数目，比如目前正由一些私营铁路公司在东京进行的翻两番，除了提高汽车和火车班次，容量。同时，扩大容量将增加列车服务选择，特别是从外地到当地的火车 在东京的铁路乘客都没有拥塞，行车时间及不便在码头不满意疑问。因此，它可以是科学家的假设愿意支付服务改进的乘客。利用条件评估法(CVM)，进行了一份问卷，探讨多少额外收费，铁路旅客愿意付钱。受访者被问及他们多少愿意额外支付以下的改善。 1.使乘客要始终拥有席位 2.缩短5分钟行车时间 3.缩短10分钟行车时间。 4.纾缓挤塞情况，使乘客可以无干扰阅读报纸(拥塞率150,)。 这项调查的开展是关于小田急和田园都市线，这两者都是从东京西南郊区通勤径向线。拥塞率在早上的繁忙时间接近东京市中心率分别为191和195,，分别于1998年。每一行有300名受访者中，其中主要是用在所有铁路预计行车时间与早上繁忙时间，约30分钟。5和6显示累计支付意愿曲线比例逐步下降，其中从100到0,作为 第16页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 支付意愿的增加。因此，愿意支付50,，使平均金额。无论是小田急和田园都市线的调查结果显示，最高度重视改善服务是:(1)使乘客要始终拥有席位，其次是(3)缩短了10分钟的行车时间，(4)减轻交通挤塞这样，乘客可以无干扰和阅读报纸(2)缩短了5分钟的行车时间。因此，很明显，在东京铁路用户愿意支付相当数额改善服务，特别是在繁忙时间。值得补充，缩短行车时间并纾缓挤塞情况亦高度为指标得到改善 3. 政策影响有关铁路服务的改善 认识到有很多问题需要解决，以改善在东京铁路的服务水平，本节讨论了切实可行的政策，应该或不应该研究的战略意义。 首先，决策进行铁路投资应在1 /成本效益分析的基础上进行。虽然投入了大量资金在每个组织的倡议，决策有所欠缺的社会成本效益的比较。投资减少铁路平均拥塞率东京，其运输政策目标的150,，费用约5万日元，包括像'缺失环节进入机场等项目。在同一时间，缩短行车时间，纾解拥挤的好处据估计，在这项研究八百亿日 效益比为1.6。这表明需要进一步投资铁路。很显然，投资不应元，给人一种成本/ 评估只是按项目资金的准则，但也由效益分析，使当局同其他各种投资成本比较公平的结果。 下一步，铁路的服务水平应定期提高客户满意度指数以及拥挤的评价，速度，准时等在客观证据的基础上。这些类型的评估将鼓励经营者改善服务，投资和最终改变的，市场是垄断的认可。一个有效的选择被认为是一个中立的组织编制从公共当局和评估服务质量服务于私人公司外，乘客和决策者作为运营商之间的中介。英国采用这种在一个中立的设置服务水平目标，客户满意度的措施，并定期奖励或惩处经营者在他们的成就(家田，1998年)为基础的组织称为减缩剂(战略体系铁路局) 第三，由于铁路投资资金的新方法，它是有效的收费在早上和傍晚繁忙时间的旅行更多。目前，没有任何旅游高峰之间的票价和普通时间分别在东京不同于西方国家的城市。由于在国外的城市，这是有道理的，因为可以实施已作出的投资，扩大设施和设备，以应付繁忙时间的需求。根据粗略的估计表明，如果加价25,征收到的行程，并从城市中心的两小时在早上和晚上，每年2000亿日元可以得到的。这可能约占总数的40,，每年投资在东京。这是基于这样的假设，普遍检查和存储的自动售票票价(或IC)卡将能够使运营商查询复杂的票价。随着创造投资收益，这种对策 第17页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 是输送到普通小时的劝阻使用昂贵的服务在繁忙时间的乘客需求的有效。 第四，这是值得研究的，关于额外征税效应内部化的可能性，除了其他铁路乘客也应承担部分，作为铁路投资成本。即使在经济高速增长时期，它被广泛讨论，外部冲击对财产的新建铁路线附近，从人口和财产的价值增加引起的，应该由一个物业税内化。此外，在市中心，汽油税和环境税营业税设企业特别是发电为那些在城市工作的中心和其他税收手段/或使用汽车会由铁路服务的改善和减少道路挤塞一个模式受益从汽车转向火车。 问间接受益人承担的费用，使铁路，至关重要的是被公共基础设施和私人企业铁路概念被广泛认可。 最后，组织由分散的领土应转变成一个更加综合的结构功能。目前，经营和管理在东京铁路的特点是按地域形成了一个独立的组织结构。每个组织拥有的所有资产，包括土地，设施和设备，每通过提供运营服务，每个负责的一切完全是这种情况发生，涉及铁路线。这一长期存在的结构，阻碍了用户利益最大化，如上面所述。 4 上述结论解释 关于2000年1月27日，运输政策全国委员会发表了关于在东京的铁路网络的未来一个新的报告。它强调了诸如减轻铁路服务的改进，进一步必要性拥挤，促进无障碍等由2015年的目标。规划中的铁路线是客观评价后分成三组(A1，A2和B)在与重点建设按照分类。 一个可预测的低增长老化'成熟'在未来的社会将更加重视对社会成本/效益和投资效益的标准。它同样清楚的是投资，改善等缺失环节连接`'是优先考虑现有的网络。此外，该报告意味着制定方法，通过建立的必要性，以消除补贴和组织铁路公司的投资不愿意。本研究恰逢上述报告，一经确认，在东京的铁路服务应进一步作为为人民和世界城市经济活动最重要的基础设施改善。客观地评价各项指标清楚地表明，服务质量显着改善，甚至会不乐观的情况下在列车在繁忙时间使用会减少，除非企业大型投资，以提高网络的效率和扩大线路容量。 同时，一项调查显示，即使乘客愿意支付服务的改善，投资意向，各有关组织减少。鉴于这些情况，宜设立一个政策，以刺激投资方式铁路运营商之间的激励机制是最重要的。 与此同时，东京铁路是典型的组织结构分散，使每一个铁路公司在提供相当大的自主权服务。手术是一个相当垄断下实施情况的模式选择方面。 作为显示在两个极端的建设投资方式夷。一个新的生产线;即竞争型的和互补式，分散组织妨碍用户利益最大化，因为经营者在追求利润的基础的私营公司的标准。为了突破这些僵局，政 第18页 西南交通大学本科毕业设计 策应该得到执行。在这些政策，这表明从目前的地域分散的组织转变为一个综合功能结构已受到多方关注。该系统已被执行的，西方国家资产控股属于不同的经营实体。仿效西方的城市将可能增加补贴的效率，要鼓励投资，最终提高服务质量。 另一方面，它也被广泛讨论时指出，在垂直分离系统，对事故责任，如发生意外，准时的损失等，变得模糊不清。事实上，英国的制度已受到多方批评，其服务质量也大大改善，英国铁路公司将减少英国铁路公司私有化和独立经营者主要是由于责任不明确之处。最大的问题是评估的责任应该放在哪里事故或延误:对经营失误或设施自动气象站。国外城市试清楚地表明，没有理想的制度铁路方面的组织结构。因此，什么是必要的，在制定有关的铁路运输政策在世界之窗城市是扩大所涉及的人的范围，进一步研究客观事物，讨论可能突破僵局，并执行这些仿真西部城市将可能增加补贴效率，要鼓励投资，最终提高服务质量。