1In1812,NapoleonBonaparte,EmperoroftheFrench,ledhisGrandArmyintoRussia.HewaspreparedforthefierceresistanceoftheRussianpeopledefendingtheirhomeland.HewaspreparedforthelongmarchacrossRussiansoiltoMoscow,thecapitalcity.ButhewasnotpreparedforthedevastatingenemythatmethiminMoscow--theraw,bitter,bleakRussianwinter.In1941,AdolfHitler,leaderofNaziGermany,launchedanattackagainsttheSovietUnion,asRussiathenwascalled.Hitler'smilitarymightwasunequaled.HiswarmachinehadmoweddownresistanceinmostofEurope.Hitlerexpectedashortcampaignbut,likeNapoleonbeforehim,wastaughtapainfullesson.TheRussianwinteragaincametotheaidoftheSovietsoldiers.2Eventheautomobileindustry,whichhasremainedlargelyunchangedforthelastseventyyears,isabouttofeeltheeffectsofthecomputerrevolution.Theautomobileindustryranksasamongthemostlucrativeandpowerfulindustriesofthetwentiethcentury.Therearepresently500millioncarsonearth,oronecarforeverytenpeople.Salesoftheautomobileindustrystandataboutatrilliondollars,makingittheworld'sbiggestmanufacturingindustry.Thecar,andtheroadsittravelson,willberevolutionizedinthetwenty-firstcentury.Thekeytotomorrow's"smartcar"willbesenors.Wewillseevehiclesandroadsthatseeandhearandfeelandsmellandtalkandact,predictsBillSpreitzer,technicaldirectorofGeneralMotorsCorporation'sITSprogram,whichisdesigningthesmartcarandroadofthefuture.3Mymentor,CurtCarlson,isthewealthiestmaninMinnesota,ownerofahotelandtravelcompanywithsalesintheneighborhoodof$9billion.IhadtogettoameetinginNewYorkoneday,andCurtgenerouslyofferedmearideinhisjet.IthappenedtobeadayMinnesotawashitwithoneoftheworstsnowstormsinyears.Minneapolis-St.PaulInternationalAirportwasclosedforthefirsttimeindecades. Then,thoughthestormcontinuedtopoundus,theairportopenedarunwayforsmallcraftonly.Asweweretaxiingdownittotakeoff,Curtturnedtomeandsaidgleefully,"Look,Harvey,notracksinthesnow!"CurtCarlson,70yearsoldatthetime,richbeyondanyone'sdreams,couldstillsparklewithexcitementaboutbeingfirst.Frommystandpoint,that'swhatit'sallabout.Preparetowin.Neverstoplearning.Believeinyourself,evenwhennooneelsedoes.Findawaytomakeadifference.Thengooutandmakeyourowntracksinthesnow.4ThemerefactthatAmericastillattractsmillionsofpeopleisevidencethatitisnotindecline.Peoplearen'tattractedtoaplaceofdecline.SignsofdeclinearesuretobefoundinaplaceascomplexasAmerica:debt,crime,thehomeless,drugs,dropouts.ButthemaincharacteristicofAmerica,thefirstandmostenduringimpression,isdynamism,energy,aggressiveness,forwardmovement.Itissohardtothinkofthisnationindeclinewhenyouknowthattherearevastregionsoftheplanetwhichareabsolutelyparalyzed,incapableofanyimprovementatall. ItisdifficultformetoagreewithPaulKennedy'sthesisinTheRiseandFallofGreatPowersthatAmericamustinevitablyfollowhistoricalprecedent.That'sthewayhistoryusedtobe--allpowerfulnationsdeclinedandgavewaytootherempires.Butmaybethereisanotherwaytolookatwhatishappening.Ihaveasensethatwhatisgoingonhereconcernsmuchmorethanthefateofanation. ItmaybethattheEuro-centeredAmericannationisdecliningasitgiveswaytoanewPacificcivilizationthatwillinclude,butnotbelimitedto,America.Historicallyspeaking,Americamaynotdecline,butinsteadfusewiththePacificculturetocreateakindofvastPacificcollage,amixofHispanicandAsiancultureslinkedthroughthemostmoderncommunicationtechnologies. 5ForthirtyyearsnowIhavebeenstudyingmyfellowmen. Idonotknowverymuchaboutthem.Ishrugmyshoulderswhenpeopletellmethattheirfirstimpressionsofapersonarealwaysright.Ithinktheymusthavesmallinsightorgreatvanity.FormyownpartIfindthatthelongerIknowpeoplethemoretheypuzzleme. ThesereflectionshaveoccurredtomebecauseIreadinthismorning'spaperthatEdwardHydeBurtonhaddiedatKobe.HewasamerchantandhehadbeeninbusinessinJapanformanyyears.Iknewhimverylittle,butheinterestedmebecauseoncehegavemeagreatsurprise.UnlessIhadheardthestoryfromhisownlips,Ishouldneverhavebelievedthathewascapableofsuchanaction.Itwasmorestartlingbecausebothinappearanceandmannerhesuggestedaverydefinitetype.Hereifeverwasamanallofapiece.Hewasatinylittlefellow,notmuchmorethanfivefeetfourinheight,andveryslender,withwhitehair,aredfacemuchwrinkled,andblueeyes.IsupposehewasaboutsixtywhenIknewhim.Hewasalwaysneatlyandquietlydressedinaccordancewithhisageandstation. ThoughhisofficeswereinKobe,BurtonoftencamedowntoYokohama.Ihappenedononeoccasiontobespendingafewdaysthere,waitingforaship,andIwasintroducedtohimattheBritishClub.Weplayedbridgetogether.Heplayedagoodgameandagenerousone.Hedidnottalkverymuch,eitherthenorlaterwhenwewerehavingdrinks,butwhathesaidwassensible.Hehadaquiet,dryhumor.Heseemedtobepopularattheclubandafterwards,whenhehadgone,theydescribedhimasoneofthebest.IthappenedthatwewerebothstayingattheGrandHotelandnextdayheaskedmetodinewithhim.Imethiswife,fat,elderly,andsmiling,andhistwodaughters.Itwasevidentlyaunitedandaffectionatefamily.IthinkthechiefthingthatstruckmeaboutBurtonwashiskindliness.Therewassomethingverypleasinginhismildblueeyes.Hisvoicewasgentle;youcouldnotimaginethathecouldpossiblyraiseitinanger;hissmilewasbenign.Herewasamanwhoattractedyoubecauseyoufeltinhimarealloveforhisfellows.Atthesametimehelikedhisgameofcardsandhiscocktail,hecouldtellwithpointagoodandspicystory,andinhisyouthhehadbeensomethingofanathlete.Hewasarichmanandhehadmadeeverypennyhimself.Isupposeonethingthatmadeyoulikehimwasthathewassosmallandfrail;hearousedyourinstinctsofprotection.Youfeltthathecouldnotbeartohurtafly. 6AsGodbeypointsout,thestresswefeelarisesnotfromashortageoftime,butfromthesurfeitofthingswetrytocramintoit."It'sthekidinthecandystore,"hesays."There'sjustsomanygoodthingstodo.Thearrayofchoicesisstunning.Ourfreetimeisincreasing,butnotasfastasoursenseofthenecessary."Amoresuccessfulremedymaylieinunderstandingtheproblemratherthanevadingit.Beforetheindustrialrevolution,peoplelivedinsmallcommunitieswithlimitedcommunications.Withintheconfinesoftheirvillage,theycouldreasonablyexpecttoknoweverythingthatwastobeknown,seeeverythingthatwastobeseen,anddoeverythingthatwastobedone.Today,beingcuriousbynature,wearestilltryingtodothesame.Buttheglobalvillageisaworldoflimitlesspossibilities,andwecanneverachieveouraim.Itisnotmoretimeweneed:itisfewerdesires.Weneedtoswitchoffthecell-phoneandleavethechildrentoplaybythemselves.Weneedtobuyless,readlessandtravelless.Weneedtosetboundariesforourselves,orbedoomedtomountingdespair.7Ifoundmyselffullyawakeat5a.m.yesterdayandwentforawalkontheBrooklynBridge.Nowmorethaneverthebridgeseemslikeagreatgifttomycity.Itspans.Inthechangedlandscapeofdowntownitisourundisturbedbeauty,grownevermorestatelyeachyear.Peopleseemtoloveitmorenow,oratleastmentionitmoreornoticeitmore.SodoI.It'salwaysfulloftouristsbutalwaysfullofNewYorkers,too.Iamstruck,asIalwaysamwhenI'monit,thatIamwalkingononeoftheengineeringwondersoftheworld.AndIwasstruckyesterdaythatIwaslookingatoneofthegreatestviewsinthehistoryofman'screation,Manhattanatsunrise.Andallofitwasfree.Abillionairewouldpaybillionstoownthisbridgeandkeepthisview,butIandmyjogging,bikingandhikingcompanionshaveitfornothing.Weinheritedit.Nowallwedoispaymaintenance,intheformoftaxes.Wearelucky.