大数据背景下的教育的演进与变更

“DON’TGOMISTAKINGPARADISEFORTHATHOMEACROSSTHEROAD”Research&EvaluationofEducationalPrograms,Projects,Products,PoliciesandPoliciesJ.MichaelSpector,PhDProfessorofLearningTechnologiesUniversityofNorthTexas,Denton,TXUSAMike.Spector@unt.eduEastChinaNormalUniversityMarch2017EducationalTechnologyProgramandProjectEvaluationMarch2017J.MichaelSpector2AECTMajorReferenceWork:Learning,Design,andTechnology:AnInternationalCompendiumofTheory,Research,PracticeandPolicy.Co-editors:MikeSpector(mike.spector@unt.edu),BarbaraLockee(lockeebb@vt.edu)andMarcChildress(marcus.childress@bakeru.edu).Substantive,onlineoriginal,peer-reviewedarticles(7,000–17,000words)thatexaminecriticalfacetsoflearningtheory,educationalresearch,instructionaldesignanddevelopment,andeducationalpracticeandpolicy.Thereareinitially16sections:LearningTheoryandtheLearningSciences-JanElen(Jan.Elen@ppw.kuleuven.be)Research,PracticeandPolicies–JenniferBanas(jenbanas@gmail.com),BobDoyle(rdoyle@fas.harvard.edu)TechnologyforLearning,Instruction,andPerformance–DirkIfenthaler(dirk@ifenthaler.info)DesigningLearning,Instruction,andPerformance–TreyMartindale(treymartindale@gmail.com)InnovativeDesignandDevelopmentApproaches–AndyGibbons(andy_gibbons@byu.edu)TransformativeLearning–KonradMorgan(morgankonrad@gmail.com)ChangeAgencyandDiffusionofTechnologies–EugeneKowch(ekowch@ucalgary.ca)Assessment,Testing,andEvaluation–MaggieWang(magwang@hku.hk)CaseStudiesinLearningDesignandInstructionalTechnology–SimonHooper(sxh12@psu.edu)ProfessionalPreparation–MonicaTracey(MonicaTracey@wayne.edu)TechnologiesInfluencingEducationalFutures–YouqunRen(renyouqun@hotmail.com)AdaptiveTechnologiesandAugmentedRealities–NianShingChen(nianshing@gmail.com)E-LearninginFormalandInformalSettings–InsookLee(inlee@sejong.ac.kr)SmartLearningEnvironments–Kinshuk(kinshuk@athabascau.ca)Cultural&RegionalPerspectives–PatriciaYoung(pyoung@umbc.edu)ResearchReviewsandSystematicReviews–GloriaNatividad(Gloria.Natividad@itsaltillo.edu.mx)andHaleIlgaz(Hale.Ilgaz@ankara.edu.tr)J.MichaelSpector3March2017APre-testThepurposeofinstructionisto______________.Learningischaracterizedby_________________.Evaluationrefersto_________________________.Whyhavestandards?Whatkindsofstandards?Whatkindsofeducationaleffortsarelikelytoleadtosustainedandsystemicimprovementinlearningandinstruction?Whichpedagogicalapproachesarelikelytoimprovelearningandinstructionandnotleavemoreandmorelearnersbehindandunderserved?March2017J.MichaelSpector4DefinitionstoguidethewayLearning–characterizedbystable,persistingchangesinwhatapersonknowsandcandoInstruction–purposefuleffortstodevelopknowledgeandskillsorimproveperformanceandunderstandingResearch–aimedatdescribing,understandingandpredictingwhathashappenedorwillhappenEvaluation–helpinganeffortsucceedandreportingtheextenttowhichaneffortdidsucceedTechnology–disciplined,systematicapplicationofknowledgeforapurposetobenefitusersandsocietyMarch2017J.MichaelSpector5TensionsandObstaclesMarch2017J.MichaelSpector6BYODEmpowermentEngagementAccessCost-effectivenessThosewithoutadeviceDistractionsMulti-processingVerifyingworksubmittedSocialNetworkingSharingideasWorkingoncomplextasksLearningfromothersDevelopingrelationshipsPooledignoranceAssessingindividualworkAccessissuesCyber-bullyingPedagogicalInnovationsFlippingtheclassroomInquiry-basedlearningLearningbydoingLearningbydesigningFormativefeedbackThosewhoareunpreparedAssessingprogressTransferoflearningTechnologyContextTechnologieschangewithnewertechnologiesreplacingoldertechnologies.Therateofchangehasbeenaccelerating.In1915,whowasthinkingabouttabletcomputers,smartphones,orcloudcomputing?Thesearenowpervasive.Inthepast,technologyfadshavecomeandgonewithlittlesignificantandsustainedimpactonlearning.Nowwehavemorepowerfultechnologiesdeployedinaglobalcontext.Howwilladaptivetechnologies,augmentedrealities,makerspaces,andwearabledevicesimprovelearningandinstruction?March2017J.MichaelSpector7GuidepostsTechnologieschangeWhatpeopledo,whatpeoplecando,whatpeoplewanttodo,andwhatpeoplewillwanttoavoiddoingContextschangeWithwhompeopleinteract,thenatureofinteractions,andhowinteractionsconnecttoactivitiesanddecisionsInterestschangeWhypeopledowhattheydo,wheretheygo,whichthingstheyinvestigate,andwhatissuestheyfollowThedefinitionoflearningdoesnotchangeLearningisanaturallyoccurringprocessinvolvingchangesinwhatapersonorgroupknowsandcandoMarch2017J.MichaelSpector8“Thetimestheyareachanging”ItisthebestoftimesPowerfulandflexiblemobiletechnologiesRichrepositoriesofeducationalresourcesSupportforjust-in-need/timefeedbackAdaptivetoolsandtechniquesforpersonalizationItistheworstoftimesProvidingequitableaccessforallSelectingandsequencinglearningactivitiesIntegratingtechnologyeffectivelyAdaptingtoadaptivelearningandinstructionMarch2017J.MichaelSpector9https://www.google.com.hk/search?q=digital+divide+images&rlz=1C1OPRB_enHK639HK639&espv=2&biw=1317&bih=1034&tbm=isch&imgil=vly7w8THB2PHOM%253A%253BQDBm3Y5Y2ppzLM%253Bhttp%25253A%25252F%25252Fwww.andrew.cmu.edu%25252Fuser%25252Fvdong%25252Fhomework%25252F&source=iu&pf=m&fir=vly7w8THB2PHOM%253A%252CQDBm3Y5Y2ppzLM%252C_&usg=__Re1js73zvi35pjoLTxfVTjIn1PU%3D&dpr=0.9&ved=0CDAQyjc&ei=nw9QVb-NBJbx8gXzkoGICg#imgrc=_Whathavewelearned?Whatarethemostsignificantandconsistentfindsfromresearchintheareaofinstructionaldesign?Reliablepredictorsoflearningoutcomesinclude:Priorknowledge,preparationandperformanceTimespentoflearningtasksandactivitiesAnd…Replacementstrategiesrarelyworkwell(e.g.,electronicpage-turners,replicatingF2Fatadistance,etc.)DifferentlearnerslearndifferentlyMarch2017J.MichaelSpector10TheImpactofEducationalTechnologyResearchEdsgerDijkstra(1972):Computershaveonlyintroducedthenewproblemoflearningtousethemeffectively.PatrickSuppes’ImpactofResearchonEducation:SomeCaseStudies(1978):”Allofusonoccasionprobablyfeelthatthereislittlehopethatresearch…willseriouslyaffectpractice.”“Allofthecharacteristicfeaturesofmodernelectroniccommunication…areuniqueproductsofthelongtraditionofscienceandtechnology.”Ninecasestudiesthatshowpromise,including:Measuringintellectualabilities,PiagetandLOGO,individualdifferencesanddifferentiatedinstructionDonEly&TjeerdPlomp(1986):Theclaimsandpredictionsofeducationaltechnologistsareoftennotrealized.March2017J.MichaelSpector11TheImpactofEducationalTechnologyOnwhatcanbedoneStandardizealearningactivityorenvironmentMakeawidevarietyofresourcesavailableProvideinteractivesimulationsSupportlearninganywhere,anytimeEnhancelearningthroughtechnologyAnd…(seetheClark-Kozmamediadebate)Whathasbeentheimpactofwhathasbeendone:PISA–USA:24th(2003),23rd(2006),24th(2009),28th(2012)AdultLiteracy–USA:26%illiterate(1992);22%(2003)March2017J.MichaelSpector12IndicationofchangeMarch2017J.MichaelSpector1396.238.816.529.59.80102030405060708090100200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012*2013*Per100inhabitantsGlobalICTdevelopments,2001-2013Mobile-cellulartelephonesubscriptionsIndividualsusingtheInternetFixed-telephonesubscriptionsActivemobile-broadbandsubscriptionsFixed(wired)-broadbandsubscriptionsNote:*EstimateSource:ITUWorldTelecommunication/ICTIndicatorsdatabaseMoore’sLawIn1965,GordonMoorepredictedthatthenumberofcomponentsonanintegratedcircuitwoulddoubleeveryyear–revisedin1975todoublingeverytwoyearsItisnotlikelythatthiscancontinueindefinitelyOtherchangesarenowhappeningthatarenearlyasdramaticIn1998JakobNielsenpredictedthatahigh-enduser’sInternetconnectionspeedwouldgrowby50%everyyearIn1984withacousticmodems–300bpsIn2014–120,000,000bps(betterthanpredicted)March2017J.MichaelSpector14TechnologyGains≠LearningGainsMarch2017J.MichaelSpector15PeakofinflatedexpectationsDepthofdisillusionmentGradualimpactonlearningslowlybeginstooccurChangingtechnologiesPortableAdaptiveAugmentedrealitiesInterconnectedMarch2017J.MichaelSpector16ChangingcontextsReshapingformalclassroomsIntegratingformalandnon-formalsettingsConnectingstudentslocatedindifferentplacesandwithdifferentbackgroundsFocusingonspecificknowledgeandskills(competencies)ratherthanondegreesandcredentialingMarch2017J.MichaelSpector17ChangingInterestsTheglobalmarketplace–adrivetoSTEMeducationThethinkingcitizenry–adrivetoSTEAMeducationFreedomtopursuepersonalinterestsandhobbiesDesiretoexplorethingsandplacesnotknownMarch2017J.MichaelSpector18Unitsofanalysis=learner,learninggroups,support(e.g.,teacher,assistants,etc.)Focus=desiredoutcomesANDassociatedoutcomes(e.g.,interestinthesubjectdomain,higherorderthinkingskills,lifelonglearning,etc.)Basicassumption=intermittentrationalitySometimeslearnersselectthingsthatviolatetheprinciplesorappearanceofrationality–understandingwhyisimportantiftheoverarchinggoalistoimproveandbettersupportlearningandinstructionMoreHolisticApproachesMarch201719March2017J.MichaelSpector20LearningandInstructionComponentsInformationobjectlevel–data,opinions,beliefs,discussions,figures,videos,andotherresourcesasyetlackingacontext,interpretationorvalidationKnowledgeobjectlevel–informationthathasbeengivenacontext,interpretedandvalidated(i.e.,widelyconsideredconfirmedandreliable)Learningobjectlevel–knowledgeobjectslinkedtolearninggoalsand/orinstructionalobjectivesInstructionalobjectlevel–learningobjectswithassociatedactivities,feedbackandassessmentsCourselevel–acollectionofrelatedandappropriatelysequencedinstructionalobjectsProgramlevel–astructuredcollectionofcoursesLife-longlearning–ongoingeffortsinpursuitof…Wisdom?RobertD.Tennyson,1997–4thGenerationsInstructionalSystemsDesignMarch2017J.MichaelSpector21EducationalGoalsandTechnologyEducationalGoalsDevelop(a)basicknowledgeandskills,(b)problemsolvers,(c)productiveworkers,(d)criticalthinkers(e)responsiblecitizens,and(f)lifelonglearners–emphasisandprioritiesvaryEducationalTechnologiesChangerapidlyCanfacilitateorinhibitlearningCreatearequirementtolearneffectiveusesTendnottofocusonalleducationalgoalsNeedtobealignedwithgoalsandobjectivesateverylevelLessonslearnedshouldnotbeburiedandforgottenMarch2017J.MichaelSpector22PlanningContexts,LevelsandRepresentativeConcernsLevelsofPlanningRepresentativeConcernsGlobal(national)CulturalandpoliticalclimateInstitutionalAlignmentwithmissionProgramEvaluation;AccreditationCurriculumProfessionalrequirementsCourseRequirements;Goals;EvaluationModuleCoherence;Sequencing;ContextLessonObjectives;Assessments;ContentUnitContent;Context;Control;RelevanceActivityFeedback;Meaningfulness;TimingMarch2017J.MichaelSpector23ExampleDebatesLessonlevelCollaborativelearning:promotingthoughtfulinterchangevs.poolingignorance;didacticvs.open-endedapproachesOpen-endedinquirylearning:promotingself-regulationandmetacognitiveskillsvs.furtherdisadvantagingthosealreadydisadvantagedCurriculumlevelDevelopingbasicknowledgeandskills:producingcertifiedstudentsvs.discouragingcreativeandinnovativestudentsFocusingonjobmarketsandplacementsvs.focusingonproblem-solvingandflexiblethinkingskillsMarch2017J.MichaelSpector24ANeedforMeasureableGoalsIsper-studentfundingareasonablemeasureofsupportforeducation?Howimportantissupportforeducationalresearch?Howimportantissupportforprofessionaldevelopment?Whatarereasonablemeasuresofprogressatthestate,regional,nationalandgloballevels?Similardisparitiesanddebatesexistwithregardtohealthcare–lessonstobelearned?.Doesevidencematter?Whatevidence?March2017J.MichaelSpector2510IssuesShapingEducationalTechnology1.Accountability/Standards2.Funding3.DigitalDivide4.RaceandGender5.DistanceEducation6.PrivacyandSafety7.VirusesandHacking8.Plagiarism9.Anti-technologySentiments10.InformationLiteracyMarch2017J.MichaelSpector26The2017NMCHorizonReporthttp://www.nmc.org/March2017J.MichaelSpectorKeyTrendsShort-term:BlendedlearningdesignsShort-term:CollaborativelearningMid-term:GrowingfocusonmeasuringlearningMid-term:RedesigninglearningspacesLong-term:AdvancingculturesofinnovationLong-term:Deeperlearningapproaches27NMC:SignificantChallengesSolvableImprovingDigitalLiteracyIntegratingFormalandInformalLearningDifficultAchievementGapAdvancingDigitalEquityWickedManagingKnowledgeObsolescenceRethinkingtheRolesofEducatorsMarch2017J.MichaelSpector28ImportantDevelopmentsNear-term(oneyearorless)AdaptivelearningtechnologiesMobileleanringMid-term(twotothreeyears)TheInternetofThingsNextGenerationLMSsFar-term(fourtofiveyears)ArtificialIntelligenceNaturalUserInterfacesMarch2017J.MichaelSpector29NMC:SignificantChallengesSolvableAdequatelyDefiningandSupportingDigitalLiteracyBlendingFormalandInformalLearningDifficultComplexThinkingandCommunicationIntegratingPersonalizedLearningWickedCompetitionfromNewModelsofEducationRelativeLackofRewardsforTeachingMarch2017J.MichaelSpector30ImportantDevelopmentsNear-termBringYourOwnDevice(BYOD)FlippedClassroomsMid-termMakerspacesWearableTechnologiesFar-termAdaptiveLearningTechnologiesTheInternetofThingsMarch2017J.MichaelSpector31Figure1Apreliminaryframeworkforsmartlearningenvironments.March2017J.MichaelSpector32March2017J.MichaelSpector33March2017J.MichaelSpector34Anderson&Krathwohl,2000)March2017J.MichaelSpector35TheArtandScienceofInstructionBalancingsupportforcreativitywiththeneedtodevelopspecificcompetenciesisanongoingchallengeToadvanceinstructionaldesignandeducationalsystems,thereisaneedtohavestandardmeasuresandinstrumentsandtoconductreplicationstudiesNSFhasalibraryofvalidatedinstrumentsandanalysistechniquestosupportbothqualitativeandquantitativeresearchrarelyusedalthoughfreeFewmeta-analysesandveryfewreplicationstudiesMarch2017J.MichaelSpector36Afidelityofimplementationstudyisfocusedontheinputsandoutputscolumns.Theideaistodevelopmeasuresofhowwelltheplanwasimplementedsothatonecanthenexaminetheimpactwithconfidencethattheimplementationhasnosignificantproblemsthatwouldinherentlyinterferewithprojectedoutcomes.Animpactstudyisfocusedontheshortandmediumtermoutcomesmosttypically.Withtheexceptionoflongitudinalstudies,thereisinsufficienttimetoevaluatelong-termoutcomes.Anargumentcanbemadethateffectswilloccurbasedonsimilarinterventionsandoutcomesfromotherstudiesinsomecases.Relevantfactorsinthecurrentsituation.Aneedsassessment,ifitexists.Inputsfromrelevantstakeholders.Symptomsofproblems.Aproblemstatement–thisiscrucialandshouldlinkdirectlytogoalsandobjectives.Goalsandobjectives.Whatoccurswhentheinterventionorprogramisimplemented.Relevanttraining.Supportandservicesprovided.Othermeasurableandobservableresultsofputtingtheinterventionintoplace.Whoisinvolvedandinwhatcapacity.InputsCurrentSituationOutputsActivitiesParticipationOutcomesShortMediumLongWhattheshort-termoutcomeswillbe.Howtheimmediatetargetsoftheeffortwillbeevaluated.Short-termoutcomesshouldlikedirectlybacktotheproblem,andgoalsandobjectives.AssumptionsWhatassumptionsarebeingmadeaboutthecurrentsituationandtheprocessofimplementingtheintervention?Howwilltheseassumptionsbemonitored?ExternalFactorsWhatexternalfactorsmightinfluencetheshort-,medium-orlong-termimpactoftheinterventionorprogram?Howaretheseexternalfactorsbeingmonitored?Whattheultimateimpactoftheinterventionislikelytobe.Underwhatconditionswillthelong-termimpactbeevaluated.Howthoseinvolvedreacttoandareinfluencedbytheintervention.Whatthemediumtermoutcomesareandhowtheywillbeevaluated.Program:ProjectName-LogicModelSituation:Ageneralstatementabouttheproblemandtheproposedsolution.Alogicmodeldepictshowanexistingsituationistransformedintoadesiredsituation;atheoryofchangeshowthechangewilloccur.LogicModelshttp://blogs.oregonstate.edu/programevaluation/files/2010/12/logicmodel.jpgProgramEvaluationandResearchHowtotransformaproblematicsituationintoadesirablesituationSpecifygoalsanddocumentcurrentsituation–possiblyaneedsassessmentReviewoftheliterature–identifylikelyapproachesEstablishinputsandthingsthatcanbecontrolledDevelop,testanddeploytheinterventionFidelityofimplementationstudy–focusedonhowwelltheinterventionwasplanned,deployedandsupportedImpactstudy–focusedontheextenttowhichgoalsandobjectiveswereachievedATheoryofChangeAprojectorprogramisintendedtochangeaproblematicsituationintoonethatisnot[as]problematicWhyexpectparticularproject/programactivitiestoresultindesiredchange(s)Atheoryofchangecanprovideanexplanationwhythedesiredchangescanbeexpectedtooccur–areviewofresearchandpractice,relatedcases,bestpractices,etc.NSFinstrumentsusedmorethanonceMarch2017J.MichaelSpector419ScienceTeachingEfficacyBeliefInstrument(STEBI)8STEMSemanticsSurvey7STEMCareerInterestQuestionnaire4ReformedTeachingObservationProtocol(RTOP)4ScienceMotivationQuestionnaireII(SMQ-II)4STEMCareerInterestSurvey(STEM-CIS)4TestofScienceRelatedAttitudes(TOSRA)3ComputerAttitudeQuestionnaire(CAQ)3ScientificAttitudesInventoryII(SAIII)3Self-EfficacyinTechnologyandScience(SETS)22012NationalSurveyofScienceandMathematicsEducation:ScienceTeacherQuestionnaire221stCenturySkillsAssessment2ChangesinAttitudesabouttheRelevanceofScience(CARS)2Children'sScienceCuriosityScale(CSCS)2Draw-a-ScientistTest(DAST)2MiddleSchoolSelf-EfficacyScale2ModifiedAttitudeTowardsScienceInventory(mATSI)2ModifiedFennemaShermanMathematicsAttitudeScale2MotivatedStrategiesforLearningQuestionnaire(MSLQ)2RevisedSimpson-TroostAttitudeQuestionnaire(STAQ-R)2SchoolPerceptionsQuestionnaire(SPQ)Scale2ScienceTeachers’PedagogicalDiscontentmentScale2Self-EfficacyTeachingandKnowledgeInstrumentforScienceTeachers(SETAKIST)2StudentLeadershipPracticesInventory(StudentLPI)2Torrance®TestsofCreativeThinking(TTCT)ProblemswithLearningAnalyticsKnowingwhatdataisbeingminedandhowtheanalysisisbeingconducted–confidenceissuesPrivacyrightspreventagreatdealofdatamininginmanycasesCustomizingwhatisfoundtobeusefultoaparticularstudentinaspecificcontextandsituationMiningdataacrossdisparatedatasetscanbedifficultaswellasyieldmisleadingresultsMarch2017J.MichaelSpector42Promises,Promises,PromisesTVwillbringexpertsandinteresttotheclassroomenvironmentPersonalcomputerswillmakelearningeasyandubiquitous;gameswillmakelearningfunITSswillindividualizelearningandensuremasteryTheInternetwillrevolutionizeteachingandlearningMOOCswillrevolutionizeuniversityeducationBut,thegainsduetotechnologysince1950arenotsogreatMarch2017J.MichaelSpector43DesigningLearningExperiencesInvolvesgoals,objectives–anintentionalenterpriseConsidersengagementandempowermentaskeystoeffectivenessInherentlyaninterdisciplinaryenterprise–educationalcomputing,instructionaldesign,learningpsychology,domainexpertise,etc.AcomplexanditerativeprocessinvolvingbothscienceandartCutsacrosstheory,research,practiceandpolicyMarch2017J.MichaelSpector44March2017J.MichaelSpector45Fourquestionsofconscience:Yourunahead?Areyoudoingitasashepherd?Orasanexception?Athirdcasewouldbeasafugitive.Firstquestionofconscience.Areyougenuine?Ormerelyanactor?Arepresentative?Orthatwhichisrepresented?Intheend,perhapsyouaremerelyacopyofanactor.Secondquestionofconscience.Areyouonewholookson?Oronewholendsahand?Oronewholooksawayandwalksoff?Thirdquestionofconscience.Doyouwanttowalkalong?Orwalkahead?Orwalkbyyourself?Onemustknowwhatonewantsandthatonewants.Fourthquestionofconscience.FromTwilightoftheIdolsbyFriedrichNietzscheLinkingTechnologytoEducationLearningapproach–experiential,situatedandauthenticlearningInstructionalapproach–cognitiveapprenticeship,graduatedcomplexityandscaffoldingCurriculumapproach–renewedemphasisonhigherorderreasoningandintegrativeknowledge(e.g.,scienceandengineeringinthenextgenerationsciencestandardsintheUSA)March2017J.MichaelSpector46ProgramEvaluationandResearchHowtotransformaproblematicsituationintoadesirablesituationSpecifygoalsanddocumentcurrentsituation–possiblyaneedsassessmentReviewoftheliterature–identifylikelyapproachesEstablishinputsandthingsthatcanbecontrolledDevelop,testanddepl