五种主流公司估值模型

最新修改增加了FCFE估值、DDM估值、APV估值、EVA估值和AE估值。原先的估值对应FCFF估值。其他估值模型有些数是链接到FCFF的，因此FCFF的估值要做全更改了自由现金流定义＝EBIT×（1-所得税率）＋折旧－资本支出－非现金性流动资本变化预测前首先需要自己输入的数据3主营收入及成本：各公司收入及成本的预测方法不尽相同，需要师自己做4预测假设：各种假设条件5固定资产预测：历史折旧和摊销7损益表及利润分配：2003-2004A利润数据8资产负债表：2003-2004历史数据7损益表及利润分配、8资产负债表：无公式的格需要手动填入，如一些特殊会计科目DCF估值（FCFF）：分析日期、股本结构，假设条件中的“第二阶段增长率、长期增长率、应付债券利率、β”。注意：第二阶段(2010-2017)年数不可更改。其他估值模型：各假设条件（第二阶段年数也不可更改）11输出结果：2003-2004年经营活动现金流量、投资活动现金流量、融资活动现金流量估值过程中所用的固定参数参数数值无风险利率Rf5.00%平均风险股票必要报酬率Rm11.00%一般情景预测历史数据区显性期预测名称2003200420052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E产品分产品收入杀虫单收入6,357.005,803.007,609.007,520.138,564.748,860.088,594.278,422.39杀虫双收入8,233.006,753.007,648.007,192.338,191.418,473.878,304.398,138.31草甘膦收入0.004,761.0010,946.0011,522.1112,962.3713,826.5314,402.6314,402.63其他收入5,597.007,793.009,320.009,320.0010,355.5610,355.5610,355.5611,391.11高效氟氯氰菊酯560.002,394.003,528.003,780.003,780.00苯氧菌酯8,400.0014,700.0016,800.0018,900.0021,000.00精喹禾灵2,160.006,300.007,200.008,100.009,000.00吡虫啉960.002,095.202,444.402,793.603,492.00啶虫脒1,040.002,340.002,730.003,120.003,900.00杀虫单收入增长率38.74%-8.71%31.12%-1.17%13.89%3.45%-3.00%-2.00%杀虫双收入增长率26.14%-17.98%13.25%-5.96%13.89%3.45%-2.00%-2.00%草甘膦收入增长率#VALUE!#DIV/0!129.91%5.26%12.50%6.67%4.17%0.00%其他收入增长率3.12%39.24%19.59%0.00%11.11%0.00%0.00%10.00%高效氟氯氰菊酯收入增长率#DIV/0!327.50%47.37%7.14%0.00%苯氧菌酯收入增长率#DIV/0!75.00%14.29%12.50%11.11%精喹禾灵收入增长率#DIV/0!191.67%14.29%12.50%11.11%吡虫啉收入增长率#DIV/0!118.25%16.67%14.29%25.00%啶虫脒收入增长率#DIV/0!125.00%16.67%14.29%25.00%分产品价格杀虫单均价/万元/吨1.511.291.371.371.481.481.431.40杀虫双均价/万元/吨1.631.471.351.311.411.411.381.36草甘膦均价/万元/吨#DIV/0!3.172.882.882.882.882.882.88其他产品均价/万元/吨46.6448.7151.7851.7851.7851.7851.7851.78高效氟氯氰菊酯均价/万元/吨28.0025.2025.2025.2025.20苯氧菌酯均价/万元/吨42.0042.0042.0042.0042.00精喹禾灵均价/万元/吨18.0018.0018.0018.0018.00吡虫啉均价/万元/吨12.0011.6411.6411.6411.64啶虫脒均价/万元/吨13.0013.0013.0013.0013.00杀虫单价格上涨幅度-7.36%-14.39%6.10%0.00%8.00%0.00%-3.00%-2.00%杀虫双价格上涨幅度-9.63%-8.35%-3.00%8.00%0.00%-2.00%-2.00%草甘膦价格上涨幅度#DIV/0!-9.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他产品价格上涨幅度4.43%6.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%高效氟氯氰菊酯价格上涨幅度-10.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%苯氧菌酯价格上涨幅度0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%精喹禾灵价格上涨幅度0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%吡虫啉价格上涨幅度-3.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%啶虫脒价格上涨幅度0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%分产品产销量杀虫单销量/吨4,223.004503.005565.005,500.005,800.006,000.006,000.006,000.00杀虫双销量/吨5,058.004,591.005,673.005,500.005,800.006,000.006,000.006,000.00草甘膦销量/吨0.001,500.003,800.004,000.004,500.004,800.005,000.005,000.00其他产品销售量/吨120.00160.00180.00180.00200.00200.00200.00220.00高效氟氯氰菊酯销量/吨20.0095.00140.00150.00150.00苯氧菌酯销量/吨200.00350.00400.00450.00500.00精喹禾灵销量/吨120.00350.00400.00450.00500.00吡虫啉销量/吨80.00180.00210.00240.00300.00啶虫脒销量/吨80.00180.00210.00240.00300.00杀虫单销量增长率6.63%23.58%-1.17%5.45%3.45%0.00%0.00%杀虫双销量增长率-9.23%23.57%-3.05%5.45%3.45%0.00%0.00%草甘膦销量增长率#DIV/0!153.33%5.26%12.50%6.67%4.17%0.00%其他产品销售量增长率33.33%12.50%0.00%11.11%0.00%0.00%10.00%高效氟氯氰菊酯销量增长率#DIV/0!375.00%47.37%7.14%0.00%苯氧菌酯销量增长率#DIV/0!75.00%14.29%12.50%11.11%精喹禾灵销量增长率#DIV/0!191.67%14.29%12.50%11.11%吡虫啉销量增长率#DIV/0!125.00%16.67%14.29%25.00%啶虫脒销量增长率#DIV/0!125.00%16.67%14.29%25.00%主要产品收入合计（万元）20,187.0025,110.0035,523.0048,674.5667,903.2774,218.4378,350.4583,526.44其它产品收入（万元）0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00其它产品占主营收入比例0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%主营业务收入（万元）20,18725,11035,52348,67567,90374,21878,35083,526调整比例0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%主营业务收入（万元）调整后20,18725,11035,52348,67567,90374,21878,35083,526主营收入增长率%24.4%41.5%37.0%39.5%9.3%5.6%6.6%主营业务成本预测2003200420052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E分产品成本主营业务成本13,847.0018,631.0027,630.0036,864.2349,023.9951,090.0052,875.6056,013.02主营业务成本增长率35.93%34.55%48.30%33.42%32.99%4.21%3.50%33.42%分原料价格氯丙烯均价13,000.0013,390.0013,390.0013,122.2013,122.2012,859.76二甲胺（40%）均价20,000.0020,600.0020,600.0020,600.0020,188.0019,986.12大苏打（98%）均价19,000.0019,380.0019,380.0019,380.0019,186.2018,802.48烧碱均价1,911.002,320.002,620.002,751.002,751.002,751.002,695.982,642.06盐酸均价516.00611.00644.00663.32663.32663.32656.69650.12液氯均价1,960.002,080.002,033.002,114.322,114.322,114.322,050.892,030.38原料价格指数30,389.1031,265.5931,265.5931,078.1330,694.0730,229.62分原料价格涨幅氯丙烯涨幅3.00%0.00%-2.00%0.00%-2.00%二甲胺（40%）涨幅3.00%0.00%0.00%-2.00%-1.00%大苏打（98%）涨幅2.00%0.00%0.00%-1.00%-2.00%烧碱涨幅21.40%12.93%5.00%0.00%0.00%-2.00%-2.00%盐酸涨幅18.41%5.40%3.00%0.00%0.00%-1.00%-1.00%液氯涨幅6.12%-2.26%4.00%0.00%0.00%-3.00%-1.00%原料价格指数涨幅#DIV/0!#DIV/0!2.88%0.00%-0.60%-1.24%-1.51%分原料消耗量增幅原料消耗量指数增幅#DIV/0!131.00%17.75%12.50%14.38%新增产品产量0.000.00500.001,155.001,360.001,530.001,750.00新增产品产量增长率#DIV/0!#DIV/0!131.00%17.75%12.50%14.38%分结构成本固定资产折旧660.00900.002,800.004,500.004,600.004,600.004,800.00煤与电成本530.00660.00800.001,500.001,600.001,600.001,700.00人工成本1,200.002,000.002,500.004,000.004,500.004,500.005,000.00原料等成本16,241.0024,070.0030,764.2339,023.9940,390.0042,175.6044,513.02主营业务利润6340.006479.007893.0011810.3318879.2823128.4325474.8527513.41主营业务利润增长率2.19%21.82%49.63%59.85%22.51%10.15%8.00%主营业务毛利率31.41%25.80%22.22%24.26%27.80%31.16%32.51%32.94%子公司收入预测并表子公司股权比例2003200420052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E子公司利润预测并表子公司股权比例2002200320042005E2006E2007E2008E2009E合计少数股东权益调整后少数股东权益苯氧菌酯----为自筹资金国债贴息项目，截止2005A已累计投资9188万元，预计2006年二季度达产，产能500吨/年。该项目采用手性试剂催化定向合成技术和非光照合成方法，合成采用邻甲基苯甲酸工艺合成路线.主要用于小麦、油菜、玉米、大豆、水稻、棉花、苹果、梨、马铃薯、南瓜、葡萄等作物，防治黑腥病、霉霜病、白粉病、锈病、颖枯病、稻瘟病、叶班病、疫病等几乎所有的真菌病害。据农业部统计，我国16类作物杀菌剂每年总用量约5.5万吨，总用药成本约35亿，进口产品使用率20%以上。甲氧基丙烯酸酯类化合物具有替代现有产品的所有优势，是防治真菌引起病害的理想药剂。国际上最早开发两个品种(含苯氧菌酯)于1996年面市，至1999年，此类杀菌剂的销售额为6亿美元,代表了全球杀菌剂市场的10%以上(柏亚罗，农药快讯，2001)。以该有效成分为主的杀菌剂，每年正以15%以上的速度递增，预计至2005年销售额上升至10亿美元左右，将成为全球销量最大的杀菌剂之一。苯氧菌酯在我国尚未产业化，是防治真菌病害的新品种，在我国工业化后，将迅速替代三唑酮等老品种，目前国内市场需求容量在5000吨左右。预计上市两年后，可在全国形成1000吨以上的市场需求，2005年可实现2000吨的市场空间。该公司计划先建设500吨/年的生产线，2003年再扩建至年产1000_2000吨的生产规模。一般情景预测1、经营活动200420052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E主营业务收入同比增长率24.39%41.47%37.02%39.50%9.30%5.57%6.61%主营业务成本/主营业务收入74.20%77.78%75.74%72.20%68.84%67.49%67.06%主营业务税金及附加/主营业务收入（营业税率）0.04%0.06%0.05%0.05%0.05%0.05%0.05%营业费用/主营业务收入7.68%7.31%7.49%7.49%7.49%7.49%7.49%管理费用/主营业务收入4.56%4.21%4.39%4.39%4.39%4.39%4.39%实际税率33.84%31.63%32.73%32.73%32.73%32.73%32.73%股利分配比例10.48%27.41%18.95%18.95%18.95%18.95%18.95%2、营运资金200420052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E货币资金/主营业务收入57.10%22.26%22.26%22.26%22.26%22.26%22.26%应收帐款周转天数(相对于主营业务收入)25.1541.5833.3633.3633.3633.3633.36应收票据周转天数(相对于主营业务收入)5.651.423.543.543.543.543.54存货周转天数(相对于主营业务成本)175.32155.89165.61165.61165.61165.61165.61应付票据周转天数(相对于主营业务成本)72.8691.6882.2782.2782.2782.2782.27应付帐款周转天数(相对于主营业务成本)29.3345.3937.3637.3637.3637.3637.36预付帐款增加/主营业务成本1.56%3.75%2.65%2.65%2.65%2.65%2.65%待摊费用增加/营业费用和管理费用0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%预收帐款(负债)增加/主营业务收入4.01%3.30%3.65%3.65%3.65%3.65%3.65%预提费用增加/营业费用和管理费用-0.16%-0.02%-0.09%-0.09%-0.09%-0.09%-0.09%其他流动资产增加/主营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他流动负债增加/主营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他长期资产增加/主营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他长期负债增加/主营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%坏帐准备/应收帐款0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%短期投资跌价准备#DIV/0!#DIV/0!0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%存货跌价准备(含工程亏损准备)0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%长期投资减值准备#DIV/0!0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%固定资产减值准备1.34%1.24%1.29%1.29%1.29%1.29%1.29%在建工程减值准备0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%3、资本性投资a、假定固定资产采用直线法折旧b、现有固定资产和新建固定资产的折旧年限平均为12年残值率为5.00%年折旧率=7.92%c、各年的固定资产投资如下：200420052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E4,000.0016,000.0012,500.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.004、债务和利息200420052006E2007E2008E2009E2010Ea、最低货币资金为主营业务收入的22.26%b、银行长期贷款利率为6.00%c、现金不足时增加短期贷款，利率为5.50%d、现金存款利率为1.35%预计银行长期贷款增加额（万元）420.001,830.001,500.000.000.000.000.00经营情景分析情景选择2一般情景预测会计年度截止日：12/312006E2007E2008E2009E2010E1销售收入增长率37.02%39.50%9.30%5.6%6.61%2销货成本/销售收入75.74%72.20%68.84%67.5%67.06%3管理费用/销售收入4.39%4.39%4.39%4.4%4.39%营业费用/销售收入7.49%7.49%7.49%7.5%7.49%股利分配比例18.95%18.95%18.95%18.9%18.95%1乐观情景预测销售收入增长率40.72%43.46%10.23%6.12%7.27%销货成本/销售收入74.22%70.75%67.46%66.14%65.72%管理费用/销售收入4.17%4.17%4.17%4.17%4.17%营业费用/销售收入7.12%7.12%7.12%7.12%7.12%股利分配比例23.95%23.95%23.95%23.95%23.95%2一般情景预测销售收入增长率37.02%39.50%9.30%5.57%6.61%销货成本/销售收入75.74%72.20%68.84%67.49%67.06%管理费用/销售收入4.39%4.39%4.39%4.39%4.39%营业费用/销售收入7.49%7.49%7.49%7.49%7.49%股利分配比例18.95%18.95%18.95%18.95%18.95%3保守情景预测销售收入增长率33.32%35.55%8.37%5.01%5.95%销货成本/销售收入77.25%73.64%70.21%68.84%68.40%管理费用/销售收入4.61%4.61%4.61%4.61%4.61%营业费用/销售收入7.87%7.87%7.87%7.87%7.87%股利分配比例13.95%13.95%13.95%13.95%13.95%历史折旧：200320042005固定资产折旧原值9,422.0012,759.0014,719.00折旧579.00845.00折旧率0.00%4.54%5.74%假设：现有固定资产的折旧年限/折旧率7.92%使用直线折旧法新建固定资产的折旧年限/折旧率6.00%2006E2007E2008E2009E2010E初始固定资产原值14,7191,165.251,165.251,165.251,165.251,165.252006固定资产投资+在建工程转14,509870.54870.54870.54870.54870.542007固定资产投资+在建工程转7,755465.27465.27465.27465.272008固定资产投资+在建工程转4,377262.64262.64262.642009固定资产投资+在建工程转2,689161.32161.322010固定资产投资+在建工程转1,844110.66在建工程期初余额16,518.0014,509.007,754.504,377.252,688.63新增工程物资0.000.000.000.000.00新增在建工程12,500.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.00转固定资产14,509.007,754.504,377.252,688.631,844.31在建工程期末余额14,509.007,754.504,377.252,688.631,844.31期初固定资产合计29,587.0040,051.2138,550.1436,786.4434,861.43+固定资产投资12,500.001,000.001,000.001,000.001,000.00－折旧2,035.792,501.062,763.702,925.023,035.68－固定资产减值准备0.000.000.000.000.00期末固定资产合计40,051.2138,550.1436,786.4434,861.4332,825.75无形资产投资和折旧历史摊销：200220032004摊销假设：不考虑无形资产增加，无形资产采用直线法摊销，摊销年限10年20052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E期初无形资产净值210.00189.00168.00147.00126.00摊销21.0021.0021.0021.0021.00期末无形资产净值210.00189.00168.00147.00126.00105.00一般情景预测利润表（单位：万元）历史数据区显性期预测会计年度截止日：12/312003200420052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E主营业务收入20,18725,11035,52448,67667,90574,22178,35383,529增长率24.4%41.5%37.0%39.5%9.3%5.6%6.6%减：折扣与折让主营业务收入净额20,18725,11035,52448,67667,90574,22178,35383,529减：主营业务成本13,84718,63127,63036,86549,02551,09152,87756,015主营业务税金及附加311212535384043主营业务利润6,3376,4687,87311,78618,84523,09125,43527,471毛利率31.4%25.8%22.2%24.3%27.8%31.2%32.5%32.9%加：其他业务利润19.0055.00(49.00)50.0050.00100.00100.00100.00减：存货跌价损失0.000.000.000.000.000.000.00营业费用1,846.001,929.002,596.003,648.245,089.475,562.805,872.516,260.46管理费用1,037.001,146.001,496.002,135.692,979.393,256.483,437.783,664.89利息费用910.911,149.06914.99508.14330.00利息收入126.54175.20213.59257.14374.83汇兑损益(收益为正)其他0.000.000.000.000.00财务费用302.00197.00221.00784.38973.86701.41251.00(44.83)营业利润3,171.003,251.003,511.005,267.299,852.1413,670.1915,973.9617,690.68加：投资收益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.00加：期货收益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.00补贴收入0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00营业外收入3.009.004.0050.0050.0050.0050.0050.00减：营业外支出34.0015.0047.0080.0080.0080.0080.0080.00加：以前年度损益调整税前利润3,140.003,245.003,468.005,237.299,822.1413,640.1915,943.9617,660.68减：所得税1,005.001,098.001,097.001,714.393,215.224,465.035,219.155,781.11实际税率32.0%33.8%31.6%32.7%32.7%32.7%32.7%32.7%加：财政返还减：少数股东损益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.00加：未确认的投资损失减：购并利润净利润2,135.002,147.002,371.003,522.906,606.939,175.1610,724.8011,879.57销售净利率10.6%8.6%6.7%7.2%9.7%12.4%13.7%14.2%净利润增长率0.6%10.4%48.6%87.5%38.9%16.9%10.8%发行在外股份数量(万股）4,500.006,500.006,500.006,500.006,500.006,500.006,500.006,500.00EPS0.4740.3300.3650.5421.0161.4121.6501.828EPS增长率-30.4%10.4%48.6%87.5%38.9%16.9%10.8%股利374.00225.00650.00667.491,251.831,738.432,032.052,250.84期初未分配利润2,938.004,538.005,904.008,230.9712,595.0418,655.4925,739.53提取法定盈余公积215.00237.00352.29660.69917.521,072.481,187.96提取法定公益金107.00118.00176.14330.35458.76536.24593.98提取任意盈余公积0.000.00其他期末未分配利润4,538.005,904.008,230.9712,595.0418,655.4925,739.5333,586.32一般情景预测'8资产负债表'!G91+'8资产负债表'!G87+'8资产负债表'!G77+'8资产负债表'!G61+'8资产负债表'!G92+'8资产负债表'!G94+'8资产负债表'!G97-'8资产负债表'!G6-'8资产负债表'!G9-'8资产负债表'!G34资产负债表（万元）历史数据区显性期预测会计年度截止日：12/312003200420052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E资产货币资金2,316.0014,338.007,909.0010,837.1215,118.2916,524.3221,570.8333,959.13短期投资0.000.000.000.000.000.000.00减：短期投资跌价准备短期投资0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00应收票据47.00389.00138.00471.59657.88719.07759.10809.25应收股利0.000.000.000.000.000.000.00应收利息0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00应收帐款1,119.001,730.004,047.004,449.466,207.216,784.497,162.217,635.36其他应收款101.00233.00413.00565.90789.46862.88910.92971.10减：坏帐准备应收帐款净额1,220.001,963.004,460.005,015.376,996.677,647.378,073.138,606.46预付帐款205.00495.001,531.002,509.053,809.725,165.206,568.058,054.15应收补贴款10.000.000.00存货3,600.008,949.0011,801.0016,726.4522,243.7123,181.1223,991.3125,414.85其中:工程施工减：存货跌价准备(含工程亏损准备)0.000.000.000.000.000.00存货净额3,600.008,949.0011,801.0016,726.4522,243.7123,181.1223,991.3125,414.85待摊费用0.000.000.000.000.000.000.00待处理流动资产净损失一年内到期的长期债券投资期货保证金0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00其他流动资产0.000.000.000.000.00流动资产总额7,398.0026,134.0025,839.0035,559.5848,826.2753,237.0960,962.4276,843.83长期股权投资0.000.00151.00151.00151.00151.00151.00151.00长期债权投资长期投资合计0.000.00151.00151.00151.00151.00151.00151.00减：长期投资减值准备长期投资净额0.000.00151.00151.00151.00151.00151.00151.00其中：合并价差0.000.000.00股权投资差额固定资产原值9,422.0012,759.0014,719.0029,228.0036,982.5041,359.7544,048.3845,892.69减：累计折旧1,942.002,521.003,366.005,401.797,902.8610,666.5613,591.5716,627.25固定资产净值7,480.0010,238.0011,353.0023,826.2129,079.6430,693.1930,456.8029,265.44减：固定资产减值准备136.00137.00141.00141.00141.00141.00141.00141.00固定资产净额7,344.0010,101.0011,212.0023,685.2128,938.6430,552.1930,315.8029,124.44工程物资773.00921.001,857.001,857.001,857.001,857.001,857.001,857.00在建工程1,273.001,861.0016,518.0014,509.007,754.504,377.252,688.631,844.31减：在建工程减值准备固定资产清理0.00待处理固定资产净损失固定资产合计9,390.0012,883.0029,587.0040,051.2138,550.1436,786.4434,861.4332,825.75无形资产327.00996.00210.00189.00168.00147.00126.00105.00递延资产开办费长期待摊费用172.000.000.00609.00482.00355.00228.00101.00其他长期资产0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00其中：临时设施净值无形资产及其他资产合计499.00996.00210.00798.00650.00502.00354.00206.00递延税款借项资产总额17,287.0040,013.0055,787.0076,559.7888,177.4190,676.5396,328.85110,026.58负债和股东权益循环贷款950.002,500.007,771.0014,989.5214,794.546,477.940.000.00应付票据1,715.003,719.006,940.008,309.2411,050.0711,515.7511,918.2312,625.41应付帐款1,357.001,518.003,484.003,773.695,018.445,229.945,412.725,733.89预收帐款(负债)1,791.002,797.003,968.005,745.348,224.8010,934.8713,795.8116,845.76代销商品款应付工资144.0070.00266.00150.00150.00150.00150.00150.00应付福利428.00470.00223.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00应付股利0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00应交税金(9.00)(126.00)(3.00)500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00其他应交款24.0034.0046.00150.00150.00150.00150.00150.00其他应付款143.00377.00550.005,000.005,000.005,000.005,000.005,000.00预提费用176.00171.00170.00164.59157.04148.80140.09130.81其他流动负债0.000.000.000.000.00一年内到期的长期负债0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00流动负债6,719.0011,530.0023,415.0038,882.3845,144.9040,207.2937,166.8541,235.86长期银行贷款1,750.002,170.004,000.005,500.005,500.005,500.005,500.005,500.00应付债券0.000.000.000.000.00长期应付款0.000.00401.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.00专项应付款40.00393.00649.000.000.000.000.000.00住房周转金其他长期负债0.000.000.000.000.00长期负债合计1,790.002,563.005,050.007,500.007,500.007,500.007,500.007,500.00递延税款贷项0.000.000.000.00负债总额8,509.0014,093.0028,465.0046,382.3852,644.9047,707.2944,666.8548,735.86少数股东权益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00股本4,500.006,500.006,500.006,500.006,500.006,500.006,500.006,500.00减：已归还投资股本净额4,500.006,500.006,500.006,500.006,500.006,500.006,500.006,500.00资本公积金357.0013,577.0013,258.0013,258.0013,258.0013,258.0013,258.0013,258.00其中：补充流动资本盈余公积金983.001,305.001,660.002,188.433,179.474,555.756,164.477,946.40其中：公益金327.00435.00553.00未确认的投资损失0.000.000.000.000.00未分配利润2,938.004,538.005,904.008,230.9712,595.0418,655.4925,739.5333,586.32外币报表折算差额资本汇差调整股东权益合计8,778.0025,920.0027,322.0030,177.4135,532.5142,969.2451,661.9961,290.72负债和股东权益17,287.0040,013.0055,787.0076,559.7888,177.4190,676.5396,328.85110,026.58检查0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00资产负债率49.22%35.22%51.02%60.58%59.70%52.61%46.37%44.29%一般情景预测现金流量表（单位：万元）历史数据区显性区预测会计年度截止日：12/3120052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E2010E经营活动产生的现金流量税后利润3,522.906,606.939,175.1610,724.8011,879.57加:少数股东损益0.000.000.000.000.00处置固定、无形资产和其他长期资产的损失0.000.000.000.000.00固定资产报废损失财务费用784.38973.86701.41251.00(44.83)投资损失(减:收益)0.000.000.000.000.00折旧和摊销2,056.792,522.062,784.702,946.023,056.68+EquityinNetIncomeofInvestee+UnrealizedForeignExchangeLosses+Provisionfor:+Doubtfulaccounts+InventoryObsolescence+Contingency+Declineinvalueofinvestment+AmortizationofPreoperatingexpenses+ShareofMinorityinterestinnetincome+Provisionfor(benefitfrom)deferredincometax+Preacquisitionloss.坏帐准备0.000.000.000.000.00短期投资跌价准备0.000.000.000.000.00存货跌价准备（含工程亏损准备）0.000.000.000.000.00长期投资减值准备0.000.000.000.000.00固定资产减值准备0.000.000.000.000.00在建工程减值准备0.000.000.000.000.00营运资金的变动应收票据的减少/(增加)(333.59)(186.30)(61.18)(40.03)(50.15)应收股利的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00应收利息的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00应收帐款的减少/(增加)(402.46)(1,757.74)(577.28)(377.72)(473.15)其他应收款的减少/(增加)(152.90)(223.56)(73.42)(48.04)(60.18)预付帐款的减少/(增加)(978.05)(1,300.67)(1,355.48)(1,402.85)(1,486.09)应收补贴款的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00存货的减少/(增加)(4,925.45)(5,517.26)(937.41)(810.18)(1,423.55)待摊费用的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00期货保证金的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00其他流动资产的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00长期待摊费用的减少/(增加)(609.00)127.00127.00127.00127.00其他长期资产的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00递延税款借项的减少/(增加)0.000.000.000.000.00应付票据的增加/(减少)1,369.242,740.82465.68402.48707.18应付帐款的增加/(减少)289.691,244.76211.49182.79321.17预收帐款(负债)的增加/(减少)1,777.342,479.472,710.062,860.943,049.94代销商品款的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00应付工资的增加/(减少)(116.00)0.000.000.000.00应付福利的增加/(减少)(123.00)0.000.000.000.00应付股利的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00应交税金的增加/(减少)503.000.000.000.000.00其他应交款的增加/(减少)104.000.000.000.000.00其他应付款的增加/(减少)4,450.000.000.000.000.00预提费用的增加/(减少)(5.41)(7.55)(8.25)(8.71)(9.28)其他流动负债的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00长期应付款的增加/(减少)950.000.000.000.000.00其他长期负债的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00一年内到期长期负债的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00应付债券的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00递延税款贷项的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00经营活动的现金流量8,161.477,701.8313,162.4714,807.4915,594.31投资活动的现金流量AdvancestoaffiliatesAdditionalinvestmentsinsharesofstockIncrease(decrease)in:ShorttermcashinvestmentsAccountsreceivable-othersOtherAssetsPrepaidexpensesandothercurrentassets短期投资0.000.000.000.000.00长期投资0.000.000.000.000.00未确认的投资损失0.000.000.000.000.00投资收益0.000.000.000.000.00固定资产投资(12,500.00)(1,000.00)(1,000.00)(1,000.00)(1,000.00)OtherNoncurrentLiabilities投资活动的现金流(12,500.00)(1,000.00)(1,000.00)(1,000.00)(1,000.00)融资活动产生的现金流量Proceedsfrom:Long-termborrowingsDepositsonfuturestocksubscriptions...Short-termborrowingsShareinrevaluationincrementinpropertyofasubsidiaryIssuanceofpreferredequityIssuancesofcapitalstockatapremium..Paymentsof:Short-termborrowingsLong-termborrowingIncrease(decrease)inminorityinterest.AdvancesfromaffiliatesCollectionofsubscriptionsreceivableIncrease(decrease)inReserveAccountspayableandaccruedexpenses长期贷款的增加/(减少)1,500.000.000.000.000.00股利分配(667.49)(1,251.83)(1,738.43)(2,032.05)(2,250.84)财务费用(784.38)(973.86)(701.41)(251.00)44.83股份发行0.000.000.000.000.00资本公积金的增加/(减少)0.000.000.000.000.00计入循环贷款前融资活动产生的现金流量48.13(2,225.69)(2,439.84)(2,283.05)(2,206.01)循环贷款的增加(减少)7,218.52(194.98)(8,316.60)(6,477.94)0.00融资活动的现金流7,266.65(2,420.67)(10,756.44)(8,760.99)(2,206.01)现金净变动2,928.124,281.171,406.035,046.5012,388.30期初现金余额7,909.0010,837.1215,118.2916,524.3221,570.83期末现金余额10,837.1215,118.2916,524.3221,570.8333,959.13自由现金流量　(此行数据未用)(4,338.53)6,701.8312,162.4713,807.4914,594.31公司自由现金流FCFFEBIT6,051.6710,826.0114,371.6016,224.9617,645.86税率32.73%32.73%32.73%32.73%32.73%EBIT*(1-税率)4,070.697,282.189,667.1510,913.8211,869.60加：折旧2,035.792,501.062,763.702,925.023,035.68减：资本支出12,159.00873.00873.00873.00873.00减：非现金性流动资本的增加(减少)(1,456.40)2,528.02(374.21)(758.67)(575.89)FCFF(4,596.11)6,382.2211,932.0513,724.5114,608.17非现金性流动资本变化流动资产17,930.0024,722.4633,707.9836,712.7639,391.5942,884.71流动负债15,644.0023,892.8630,350.3633,729.3537,166.8541,235.86流动资本2,286.00829.603,357.622,983.412,224.741,648.85非现金性流动资本变化(1,456.40)2,528.02(374.21)(758.67)(575.89)股权资本自由现金流FCFE净利3,522.906,606.939,175.1610,724.8011,879.57加：折旧2,035.792,501.062,763.702,925.023,035.68加：债务的增加(减少)8,718.52(194.98)(8,316.60)(6,477.94)0.00减：资本支出12,159.00873.00873.00873.00873.00减：非现金性流动资本的增加(减少)(1,456.40)2,528.02(374.21)(758.67)(575.89)FCFE3,574.615,511.993,123.477,057.5514,618.14FCFE=NI＋DEP－FCInv－WCInvFCFF=NI+DEP–FCInv–WCInv+[Int(1–T)]+NetBorrowingFCFtoEquityFCFtoDebtFCFE是属于股权投资者的企业剩余现金流量，即企业在支付了经营费用、债务本金和利息，满足了营运资本和资本投资需求之后的现金流量。企业经营所需资金是由各类收益索偿权持有人包括股权资本投资者、债权人和优先股持有人提供的，所以通过经营所获得的FCFF也应属于这些收益索偿权持有人。FCFF是扣除所有经营费用和所得税后，向各类收益索偿权人支付之前的现金流量。其计算方法有两种：一种是把企业不同收益索偿权人的现金流量加总：股权资本投资者→FCFE①；债权人→[利息费用（1－税率）－偿还本金+新发行债务]②；优先股股东→优先股股利③，所以FCFF=①+②+③。一般情景预测债务、现金和利息（单位：万元）2005A2006E2007E2008E2009E2010E循环贷款利率◎5.50%期初现金余额7,909.00