英文报刊阅读（翻译）当站上100美元高点,油价还会涨吗

英文报刊阅读（翻译）当站上100美元高点,油价还会涨吗 As oil passes $100, the question: will it stop? 当站上100美元高点,油价 还会涨吗? Jan 4th 2008 From The Christian Science Monitor What should we watch to see if prices will go higher? Basic economics and politics will determine the direction of prices. On the economic side, many economists are expecting global growth to slow and that would reduce demand for oil. But if the US and European economies continue to chug along, and China and India appear set to post double-digit growth rates again, those could be signals that prices will remain high.On the political front, events like a war with Iran, a major deterioration in Iraqi security, or even greater instability in Nigeria, could drive up prices if oil traders worry that unrest threatens oil production or shipments. 我们应该关注哪些可能使油价增高的因素? 基本的经济和政治将决定价格的走向.经济方面,许多经济学家期望全球增长减缓而降低 原油需要.但是如果美国和欧洲的经济持续稳定增长,并且中国和印度再次达到两位数的 增长速度,这将是价格持续走高的迹象.在政治方面,像伊朗战争,伊拉克安全恶化或者甚 至尼日利亚的不稳定都可能导致原油交易员担心动荡威胁原油生产和运输而提高价格. Why might oil prices go down? There is a small number of economists who argue that the 2007 surge in oil prices has had more to do with an overestimation of the risks of political chaos in oil producers and outright speculation than with the basics of supply and demand. Fadel Gheit, a senior official at Oppenheimer & Co. in New York who tracks the oil market, says he thinks prices are about $40 higher than the basics of supply and demand would indicate. But he's reluctant to predict when those declines will happen. 为什么油价可能降低? 有少数争论2007年原油价格起伏的经济学家已经意识到应该更加注意对原油提供国 政治混乱带来的风险的过高估计和过于简单直接的推测而不是注意供应与需求的基础. 在纽约跟踪原油市场的奥本海默公司高级官员Fadel Gheit表示他考虑价格定在基本 供求迹象所表现的价格上40美元.但是他并不愿意预测何时衰退将发生. "I've been in this business for 20 years and what I'll tell you is only fools predict oil prices," he says. "But it's very clear in my mind that oil prices have been totally disconnected from reality and are not reflective at all of supply and demand fundamentals."He points out that oil traders were justifying the surge in oil prices for much of 2007 because of fears of a possible US war with Iran. But since a US National Intelligence Estimate was released that made a war much less likely, oil prices have remained near record highs. "The NIE comes out and what happened? Nothing.... The premium that went into oil prices never left. The speculative market is like the tail wagging the dog." "我已经从事此行业20多年了,我告诉你,只有傻子才预测原油价格."Fadel Gheit说 到."但是我非常清楚原油价格已经完全和真实脱钩,而且并不能够真实反映所有供求关 系原则."他指出原油交易员为2007年原油价格增长辩护,说那是因为担心美国与伊朗 可能发生的战争.但当美国国家情报预测战争爆发可能性很低,原油价格仍然居高不下." 当国家情报预测发布后发生了什么?什么都没有发生!原油价格的虚高仍然存在.这个市 场因为投机行为而完全主次颠倒" 请注意:the tail wagging the dog 意思是:尾巴摇狗(次要部分支配或决定全局) "Now the market is saying prices have surged because of unrest in Nigeria? There's been unrest in Nigeria for 40 years, so who are they kidding?"The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agrees, arguing in its December report that the "slowing economic outlook should further ease pressure on the market." "现在市场又说价格的增长是因为尼日利亚的动荡不安?尼日利亚已经动荡不安40年了, 他们想糊弄谁?" 欧派克(OPEC)组织认同这一说法,在他们十二月的报告中提到减缓的 经济前景将进一步减轻市场压力.