近五年日元对人民币汇率走势分析

近五年日元对人民币汇率走势分析 development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking 班级: 组员: 日期: development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking 日元对人民币汇率走势分析 一、 概况介绍 人民币汇率在1994 年以前一直由国家外汇管理局制定并公布，1994 年1 月1 日人民币汇率并轨以后，实施以市场供求为基础的单一的、有管理的浮动汇率制，中国人民银行根据前一日银行间外汇市场形成的价格，公布人民币对美元等主要货币的汇率，各银行以此为依据，在中国人民银行规定的浮动幅度内自行挂牌。 本文分析的是2007 年到2011 年日元对人民币的汇率走势。 图1-1 1近五年日元对人民币的汇率走势 由图示可以看出，从2007 年到2011年日元对人民币的汇价有波动下降的趋势: 从2007 年到2008年呈上升趋势，从2008 年到2009 年呈下降趋势，从2009 年到2010年呈下降趋势，从2010 年到2011 年呈下降趋势，总体概括为:从2007 年到2011 年呈下降趋势其中最剧烈的的波动出现在从2008年到2009年之间，日元对人民币的汇率在2008 年达到最大值，2011年达到最小值。 二、 详细分析 1、 2007年日元对人民币汇率变动分析: 图2- 1 图2- 2 2007年由于政局不稳。2007年日本政局出现动荡，在7月的参院选举中，执政的自民党大败，最大的在野党民主党获得过半数席位，出现参众两院不一致的“扭曲”现象。加上前首相安倍晋三和最大在野党民主党领袖小泽一郎先后闹出辞职风波，阁僚丑闻接二连三，导致日本政治瘫痪，政局动荡，经济改革被迫搁置，政策连续性受到影响，外国投资者信心大受打击。 2007年4,6月日本的GDP增长率仅为0.5%的微弱增长，与前一段时间相比明显减弱。受act according to the law, establish the correct achievements view, and strive to create a stand the inspection of practice, people and history of performance. (5) the lead in implementation of strictly administering the party responsible. For tube party rule party poor, and party consciousness indifference, and party work missing, for subject responsibility, and "a gang double accountability" implementation not in place, and put business work and party work fragmented from of problem, for those think are wind anti-corruption effect economic development, errors views, set full strictly rule party forever in road of thought, set grasp party is maximum achievement, and caught bad party is not competent, and not caught party is dereliction of of consciousness, insisted thought party and system rule party close combined, strengthened according to rules rule party consciousness, Take responsibility for the party the party. Exercise to consciously accept the party's political life, adhere to the principle of democratic centralism, seriously carry out criticism and self criticism, rigorous daily management and supervision of party members, cadres, and maintain pressure against corruption. To improve style, cultivating good family tradition, care of families of the children and staff, press ", clear" principle correctly handle the relationship between Government and business, to create fresh political ecology and the politics of environment. Grasping the learning content, the learning needs of more than at the same time, both party members and leading cadres, and also practice job practice, further unify their thinking and action, clear work objectives and direction. To control measures in the speech requirement, implementation analysis, identify gaps and weaknesses, target put forward specific measures to strengthen and improve the work, ensuring the spirit landing implementation. Third, learn about ways to highlight the features of regular education, stick with the party branch as the basic development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking 美国次级抵押贷款资本市场风波的影响，日经平均股指暴跌，日元亦有所升值，虽然这些可能不会对日本经济造成长期影响，但对本季度甚至下季度经济增长的短期影响不可避免。 图2- 3 图2- 4 2007年影响日元的因素 日本央行货币政策。若日本央行升息，无疑将打击市场套息交易，令日元借贷成本上升，从而利多日元，利空日本股市和债市。但由于安倍内阁初掌大权，其首要任务是延续其前任小泉纯一郎的经济增长步伐。尽管财务大臣等官员多次示尊重日本央行货币政策独立性，但政府代表有权列席日本央行的政策会议，他们虽然不能投票，但却能延缓政策决议。央行的独立性受到国际市场的很大质疑，从而影响投资人对于日元的信心。 市场日元空头头寸规模。2005年底的大幅头寸调整曾引发日元走强，2006年中曾经出现过几波稍具规模的利差交易平仓动作，短暂提振日元走势，但只要日本央行不进入连续升息周期，其它主要货币同日元的既存利差优势不仅得以保持甚至有所扩大，市场的风险偏好因素依然刺激套利交易，日元有可能呈现阶段性短涨长跌格局。 图2- 5 图2- 6 美国经济增长的不确定性。美国房市的低迷，经济增长和通胀双双放缓已使美联储暂停升息。2006年末一份调查显示，美国各大投行对于2007年底美国基准利率的平均预期为4.875,，亦即美联储2007年内可能两次降息25个基点左右。这些因素均令美元承压，美元指数自2006年中期的87点左右一路下挫到2007年初的83点左右，接近了历史最低点。但美国经济政策的适应性及美国经济对于调整所呈现出来的弹性，使得目前美联储仍将通货膨胀视作其首要政策目标，降息可能性较低，美元兑日元的利差优势仍将延续。同时，越来越多的迹象显示美国经济有实现“软着陆”的可能，不排除美元在各种利空因素兑现后出现全面空头回补并展开中期反弹。 development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking 图2- 7 图2- 8 欧洲的货币政策对日元的影响。欧元兑日元的单边上扬已引起了部分欧洲国家，尤其是法国的不满，但欧洲央行和日本央行均奉行汇率应反映基本面并由市场决定的原则，对于日元汇率过低的言论将只会停留在欧洲央行官员的口头警告上。只要日本央行升息意愿依旧淡薄，则日元空头仍会寻机逢高卖空日元。 图2-9 图2- 10 各国央行外汇储备多元化。中国外汇储备在2006年底超过1万亿美元，成为世界第一大外汇储备国，而央行官员关于外汇储备多元化的言论在2006年底令美元遭受重挫。转储倾向不仅存在于中国，中东石油美元、俄罗斯央行等都在布局外汇储备多元化。虽然从购买力平价理论来看，日元已被严重低估，理应引起受各国央行及众多投资机构的关注，但由于其低收益性，持有日元的机会成本和必要资本利得求偿收益率仍偏高，不足以对各国央行等机构投资人带来足够的吸引力。有调查显示，目前外汇市场的日均成交量已达到3万亿美元，市场充足的流动性足以消化部分央行转储的需求。 图2-11 图2- 12 原油价格走势。受美国经济增长步伐有所放缓，全球冬季气温偏暖，油品库存增加，商品价格回落等众多因素影响，2006年下半年原油价格出现较大回落，虽然有利于日本的经济增长，但同时缓和了日本的通胀水平，降低了市场对日本央行升息的预期。尽管近期伊朗和西方世界关系日益紧张，市场已嗅到了战争的气息，国际油价急速反弹，但油价在2007年启稳的可能性仍然较大。况且只要油价持续攀升，各国央行别无选择，只能维持利率在目act according to the law, establish the correct achievements view, and strive to create a stand the inspection of practice, people and history of performance. (5) the lead in implementation of strictly administering the party responsible. For tube party rule party poor, and party consciousness indifference, and party work missing, for subject responsibility, and "a gang double accountability" implementation not in place, and put business work and party work fragmented from of problem, for those think are wind anti-corruption effect economic development, errors views, set full strictly rule party forever in road of thought, set grasp party is maximum achievement, and caught bad party is not competent, and not caught party is dereliction of of consciousness, insisted thought party and system rule party close combined, strengthened according to rules rule party consciousness, Take responsibility for the party the party. Exercise to consciously accept the party's political life, adhere to the principle of democratic centralism, seriously carry out criticism and self criticism, rigorous daily management and supervision of party members, cadres, and maintain pressure against corruption. To improve style, cultivating good family tradition, care of families of the children and staff, press ", clear" principle correctly handle the relationship between Government and business, to create fresh political ecology and the politics of environment. Grasping the learning content, the learning needs of more than at the same time, both party members and leading cadres, and also practice job practice, further unify their thinking and action, clear work objectives and direction. To control measures in the speech requirement, implementation analysis, identify gaps and weaknesses, target put forward specific measures to strengthen and improve the work, ensuring the spirit landing implementation. Third, learn about ways to highlight the features of regular education, stick with the party branch as the basic development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking 前高水平上，而这将继续吸引套利兴趣。 图2-13 图2- 14 上述因素对于日元2007年的走势是凶多吉少，而日元基本面消息也十分惨淡，全国核心消费者物价指数年率继2007年1月份的持平之后，在2月份出现了0.1,的下降;家庭支出增长放缓，2月年增1.3,，低于1月1.4,的增幅，受薪家庭支出年率更是出现了2.7,的显著回落;3月份制造业采购经理人指数跌至25个月低点，显示内需进一步放缓;制造业整体表现下降，2月工业产出月降0.2,，日本经济产业省终于下降了对工业产出的评估;薪资增长则依然缓慢。大型企业信心已自2006年12月份的25点滑落到2007年3月份的23点。一系列关键数据未逃脱市场预期，日本央行4月份公布的调查已确认了日本2007年1季度经济增长已放缓，日本的消费内需有待复苏，而海外市场将受美国经济增长放缓等因素的影响，加强日本政府在2007年度保持日元弱势的意愿。 另一方面，随着日本新一轮海外投资高峰已经开启，将刺激其他主要经济体的货币对日元的升值，日元兑欧元将实现连续第七个季度的下跌，而1999年欧元开始流通时，欧元兑日元仅为132.50，2007年2月23日创下了159.65的高点。由于欧元区经济增长将保持强劲，我们预计欧洲央行(ECB)将在6月6日的会议上将利率从目前的3.75,调升至4,，很有可能在三季度达到4.25,水平，而日本央行在4月10日的会议上仍维持现有0.5,的利率水平，在7月大选结束之前，日本央行不会有何行为，即使原油价格再燃战火，日本的核心通货膨胀全年都可能保持在负值区间，日元可能会经历更进一步的贬值，甚至有望创下新的纪录低点。 虽然澳联储(RBA)在2007年4月4日会议上维持6.25,利率水平不变，但因市场对其的升息预期日益增强，从而使澳元、纽元等高息货币的走势愈发坚稳，更将显示日元的交叉盘的疲弱。 在2007年度，只要上述影响日元汇率的因素未得到根本改变，压在日元头上的阴霾始终是沉重的，短期的技术性反弹只能带来相对漫长的下跌，投资者不妨适当运用期权等衍生工具把握逢高抛售的机会。 2、 2008年日元汇率变动分析: 相关数据显示,日本四大银行(三菱UFJ、瑞穗金融集团、三井住友和住友信托银行)2007—2008财年次贷相关亏损预计达47亿美元,约占其预期利润的近30%。瑞穗金融集团作为美国次贷危机的受害者,可谓受害非浅。据该公司发布的最新一季财务预计,公司在美国次级贷款相关资产方面的损失将达2750亿日元,直接导致全年利润下滑26%,至4800亿日元。该报告同时指出,公司第三季度利润下跌了65%,净收入跌至660亿日元。目前,瑞穗金融集团正在考虑采取非常措施,通过股票发行弥补其在次贷危机方面的损失。日本市值最大的银行——三菱UFJ去年第三季度利润下滑了68%;东京三菱UFJ表示,正准备分拆住房信贷业务到一个专业公司,目的是整合该领域的业务发展。据消息人士透露,东京三菱UFJ的核心银行部门将从集团分离其约140个贷款促销办公室的全国网络,创建这个专业公司。三井住友与次贷问题相关的损失扩大到990亿日元;住友信托的相关亏损达299亿日元。 development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking 日本银行(央行)19日再次实施了“紧急公开市场操作”，向短期金融市场注资2万亿日元(约合1304亿元人民币)。由于美国雷曼兄弟证券公司破产导致金融恐慌愈演愈烈，日银为维持市场稳定已连续4天向短期市场注资，总额已达10万亿日元。 日本银行、美联储(FRB)、欧洲央行(ECB)等6个国家和地区的央行18日宣布，为稳定危机愈演愈烈的欧美金融市场，将相互协调统一步调。各国将提供大量美元以备存在资筹忧虑的金融机构及时筹得资金。 图3-1 图3-2 从图3-1看，08年年初人民币对日元贬值，原因可能是中国的通货膨胀率高于日本的通货膨胀率。二月份，人民币对日元逐渐升值，原因可能是两会召开高层换届 从图3-2看，三月份，总体来看，人民币对日元是贬值的，我国3.14藏独事件对经济的影响。四月份，总体来看，人民币对日元是升值的，原因是我国四月份CPI居民消费价格总水平同比上涨8.5%。五月前期，人民币对日元汇率上升，到5月12号，我国四川发生汶川地震，人民币升值。 图3-3 图3-4 08年3月底开始、4月、5月初)，日元就一改之前一路升值(124日元兑1美元升至96日元兑1美元，升值约22%)的态势，转而开始贬值，直到胡锦涛主席访日敲定、日元汇率已由96日元兑1美元快速贬至105日元兑1美元，也就是说，历经8个月、累计升值就高达22%的日元，在短短“一个月多几天”的时间里，贬值速度更快，贬值幅度竟高达“约 10%”; 从图3-3看，整个6月份，人民币是升值的。 8月份人民币是升值的。原因是北京奥运会的影响比较大。 act according to the law, establish the correct achievements view, and strive to create a stand the inspection of practice, people and history of performance. (5) the lead in implementation of strictly administering the party responsible. For tube party rule party poor, and party consciousness indifference, and party work missing, for subject responsibility, and "a gang double accountability" implementation not in place, and put business work and party work fragmented from of problem, for those think are wind anti-corruption effect economic development, errors views, set full strictly rule party forever in road of thought, set grasp party is maximum achievement, and caught bad party is not competent, and not caught party is dereliction of of consciousness, insisted thought party and system rule party close combined, strengthened according to rules rule party consciousness, Take responsibility for the party the party. Exercise to consciously accept the party's political life, adhere to the principle of democratic centralism, seriously carry out criticism and self criticism, rigorous daily management and supervision of party members, cadres, and maintain pressure against corruption. To improve style, cultivating good family tradition, care of families of the children and staff, press ", clear" principle correctly handle the relationship between Government and business, to create fresh political ecology and the politics of environment. Grasping the learning content, the learning needs of more than at the same time, both party members and leading cadres, and also practice job practice, further unify their thinking and action, clear work objectives and direction. To control measures in the speech requirement, implementation analysis, identify gaps and weaknesses, target put forward specific measures to strengthen and improve the work, ensuring the spirit landing implementation. Third, learn about ways to highlight the features of regular education, stick with the party branch as the basic development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking 图3-5 图3-6 08年8月份，日元从105日元兑1美元进一步贬至111日元兑1美元，也就是说，从“中欧” 在达赖问题上斗法，中日双方“商量”胡锦涛主席访日行程开始(08年3月)、到胡锦涛主席成功访日之后的5个月里(08年8月)，日元贬值了“约 16%”;显然，从08年8月底、9月初福田政府宣布辞职开始，到08年12月底，我们已经看到了日元的“再一次迅速升值(升至87日元兑1美元)” 9月份，三鹿毒奶粉事件，沪指跌破2000点。人民币贬值。 图3-7 图3-8 美国金融危机引发全球动荡 图3-9 图3-10 9月初福田政府宣布辞职开始，到08年12月底，我们已经看到了日元的“再一次迅速升值(升至87日元兑1美元)”;而从08年 12月底至现在的，日元已经走上了“再一次迅速升值之后又迅速贬值”的道路，截至我们讨论时止，日元汇率为98.33日元兑1美元，较08年12月底，3 个月时间内，日元已经急贬了“约13%”。 图3-11 图3-12 development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking 从08年 12月底日元开始的这次日元急贬(“约13%”)，主要原因在于“三边撕裂”中的另外两边(欧美)”的企业，急需大量资金应急。为了帮助自己的企业，欧美央行除了用大量经济刺激、拼命向外抛酒流动性、直接向企业注资之外，也在拼命降息、尽力抚平(美元)、或者拉近(欧元)与日元间的利差，以“挤尽”日元套利空间、从而实现目的。 3、 2009年日元汇率变动分析: 根据日本央行、内阁府、总务省、经济产业省和财务省相关数据的综合预测，日本2008年GDP实际增长率约为-0.3%，2009年将为-0.5%左右。2009年日本物价上涨的压力将明显减轻，相比较2008年约1.5%的物价涨幅，2009年将稳定在0%左右。 表4-1 2009年各月人民币兑日元的汇率分析 货币名称 现汇买入价 现钞买入价 卖出价 基准价 中行折算价 发布时间 日元 7.5049 7.3469 7.5651 7.565 7.565 2009-01-01 12:37:27 日元 7.5907 7.4306 7.6517 7.6715 7.6715 2009-02-02 09:19:28 日元 6.9865 6.8392 7.0426 7.0424 7.0424 2009-03-02 11:11:15 日元 6.881 6.7359 6.9362 6.9095 6.9095 2009-04-01 17:31:21 日元 6.836 6.6919 6.8909 6.9803 6.9803 2009-05-02 00:00:08 日元 6.8422 6.698 6.8972 6.9803 6.9803 2009-05-02 03:16:15 日元 7.0641 6.9152 7.1209 7.0959 7.0959 2009-06-02 15:28:20 日元 7.0277 6.8795 7.0841 7.0895 7.0895 2009-07-01 11:30:47 日元 7.1768 7.0255 7.2344 7.158 7.158 2009-08-03 07:11:55 日元 7.3072 7.0816 7.3659 7.339 7.339 2009-09-01 17:19:26 日元 7.5604 7.327 7.6211 7.5747 7.5747 2009-10-02 00:00:00 日元 7.5419 7.309 7.6025 7.5797 7.5797 2009-11-02 11:33:50 进入2009年以来，国际金融危机对实体经济的负面影响进一步加深，工业产出和贸易萎缩的速度加快。近期，美国经济恶化势头出现趋缓迹象，但其他发达国家和发展中国家仍在下滑，各国经济刺激计划见效也尚需时日，世界经济形势仍然严峻复杂。最近，国际货币基金组织(IMF)再度下调经济增长预期，预计2009年世界经济将下降1.3%，为二战以来最严重的经济衰退。其中发达国家经济将下降3.8%，美国、欧元区和日本将分别下降2.8%、4.2%和6.2%，新兴市场和发展中国家经济仅增长1.6%。 图4-1 图4-2 act according to the law, establish the correct achievements view, and strive to create a stand the inspection of practice, people and history of performance. (5) the lead in implementation of strictly administering the party responsible. For tube party rule party poor, and party consciousness indifference, and party work missing, for subject responsibility, and "a gang double accountability" implementation not in place, and put business work and party work fragmented from of problem, for those think are wind anti-corruption effect economic development, errors views, set full strictly rule party forever in road of thought, set grasp party is maximum achievement, and caught bad party is not competent, and not caught party is dereliction of of consciousness, insisted thought party and system rule party close combined, strengthened according to rules rule party consciousness, Take responsibility for the party the party. Exercise to consciously accept the party's political life, adhere to the principle of democratic centralism, seriously carry out criticism and self criticism, rigorous daily management and supervision of party members, cadres, and maintain pressure against corruption. To improve style, cultivating good family tradition, care of families of the children and staff, press ", clear" principle correctly handle the relationship between Government and business, to create fresh political ecology and the politics of environment. Grasping the learning content, the learning needs of more than at the same time, both party members and leading cadres, and also practice job practice, further unify their thinking and action, clear work objectives and direction. To control measures in the speech requirement, implementation analysis, identify gaps and weaknesses, target put forward specific measures to strengthen and improve the work, ensuring the spirit landing implementation. Third, learn about ways to highlight the features of regular education, stick with the party branch as the basic development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking 3月中旬起，一种绝大多数人闻所未闻的流感开始在墨西哥传播开来，这种最初叫“猪流感”的病迅速在北美、南美、欧洲、亚洲蔓延。全球因其而死的人已近8000，病毒甚至出现了变种。这是21世纪第一次流感大流行，它在全球的肆意蔓延可能感染全球80%的人口„„ 图4-3 图4-4 上周日元表现最优，兑其他主要货币上涨2.63%，兑美元升至1995年以来新高。和上周我们预期的一致，美国感恩节清淡的市况反而放大了市场的波幅，资金流纷纷自股市、商品市场和外汇套息交易中流出，避险资产上涨。尽管本周资金流可能将修正，但是若风险厌恶情绪得以延续，日元有望继续上扬。上周股市的下滑主要是受到迪拜国企主权债务风险的打压。 图4-5 图4-6 09年9月16号日本民主党代表鸠山由纪夫出任日本新首相，然而，这似乎是10月份以来，加速全球信贷市场潜在的大规模反转的借口，因为摩根斯坦利的全球股价指数创8个月以来最大跌幅，反映投资者恐慌情绪的VIX指数创年内最大升幅。股市下行修正似乎是合理的。股价可能被被高估，和盈利情况的相关性升值7年新高。另外，市场情绪似乎正在改变，对经济复苏的乐观情绪正在下滑，而对一旦全球缩紧货币政策和财政政策，经济复苏将面临的风险的担忧情绪正在上升。 图4-7 图4-8 development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking 日元仍有机会继续上扬。特别是美元/日元已经跌破了关注支持87.09。从经济基本面来看，日本10月工业生产下滑速度放缓，因为库存继续调整，且财政刺激支持了需求。新屋开工下滑速度也较缓和，但预期产出将延续多年以来的下降趋势。 4、 2010年日元汇率变动分析: 2010年日本经济在“失落的十年”后一直难有起色，这使得国内的政权更替也成为家常便饭，尽管每届政府上台的口号都是振兴经济，但所谓政策创新的弊端，就是立场的矛盾性，难以连贯的经济政策，使得日元最终受其所累，1月7日最新上任的财务大臣菅直人发表对日元贬值的评论，称企业运营的合理价位在95.00一线，立即激发市场对日本政府干预汇市的猜测，尽管随后日本首相立即出面安抚市场，表达汇率稳定的决心，但已经有市场传闻显示，政权内部裂痕早已形成，汇率立场的反复，从一个侧面证明了日本经济复苏的疲弱状况。尽管出口和工业生产有所回暖，但内需的糟糕表现，以及企业削减资本开支达到历史最差局面就可以看出，经济仍没有脱离泥沼。日元的走强，不具备持续支撑的因素。 在众多央行开始逐步收紧货币政策的背景下，由于日本经济前景的黯淡，使其依然维持着超低的利率水平，同时因通缩阴影尤存，也令央行不得不提供更多的货币支持，以防止经济再度陷入衰退之中，央行行长多次发表讲话，表示应对需求，央行随时准备扩大货币供给的规模，刺激政策仍存空间，这无疑将促使日本与其他国家的利差缺口进一步放大，那么日元将再次沦为廉价的借贷工具，被持续抛售。虽然短期内美债收益率下跌，使其与日本国债收益率之差缩窄，抑制了美元上行的步伐，但美联储的加息日程肯定先于日本央行，中期利差优势，仍使美元/日元保持上涨趋势。 图5-1 图5-2 日本1月消费者物价指数下降1.3%证明其经济继续受到通缩困扰，日本央行预期物价将持续下跌至2012年，在物价水平增长之前，央行将不得不继续维持0.10%的利率水平不变，日元也将随之一直维持融资货币的地位。预计本周日本国内的家计支出和资本支出数据将继续改善，在日本经济将继续落后于其他经济体，日元也将因此保持疲弱时，在其他经济体继续其各自的持续性复苏时，其货币相对于日元的利差也将逐步扩大。在希腊债务危机仍未得到解决，本周风险事件众多时，日元本周可能维持目前水平整理。 图5-3 图5-4 3月希腊评级恐遭进一步下调的担忧使日元受到支持，本周市场继续面临非农报告、澳act according to the law, establish the correct achievements view, and strive to create a stand the inspection of practice, people and history of performance. (5) the lead in implementation of strictly administering the party responsible. For tube party rule party poor, and party consciousness indifference, and party work missing, for subject responsibility, and "a gang double accountability" implementation not in place, and put business work and party work fragmented from of problem, for those think are wind anti-corruption effect economic development, errors views, set full strictly rule party forever in road of thought, set grasp party is maximum achievement, and caught bad party is not competent, and not caught party is dereliction of of consciousness, insisted thought party and system rule party close combined, strengthened according to rules rule party consciousness, Take responsibility for the party the party. Exercise to consciously accept the party's political life, adhere to the principle of democratic centralism, seriously carry out criticism and self criticism, rigorous daily management and supervision of party members, cadres, and maintain pressure against corruption. To improve style, cultivating good family tradition, care of families of the children and staff, press ", clear" principle correctly handle the relationship between Government and business, to create fresh political ecology and the politics of environment. Grasping the learning content, the learning needs of more than at the same time, both party members and leading cadres, and also practice job practice, further unify their thinking and action, clear work objectives and direction. To control measures in the speech requirement, implementation analysis, identify gaps and weaknesses, target put forward specific measures to strengthen and improve the work, ensuring the spirit landing implementation. Third, learn about ways to highlight the features of regular education, stick with the party branch as the basic development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking 储行、加拿大央行和欧洲两大央行利率决议等一系列重大风险事件的考验，日元走势可能因此而更加捉摸不定。在希腊债务危机仍没有得到解决时，市场将继续担忧欧元区经济甚至全球经济复苏都将受到拖累。在整体金融危机和最近的希腊债务危机大背景下，在考虑日元走势时，日本经济的基本面经常被忽视，但日本经济的脆弱也可能使日元丧失其避险货币的地位。 图5-5 图5-6 2010年5月投资者避险情绪升温引发日圆融资套利交易平仓;欧元区主权债务问题方面的不确定性继续扰乱市场，导致前夜美国股市下滑。由于今日日本金融市场继续因假日休市，成交量可能不大。日本出口商的美元抛盘和美国国债收益率下滑也拖累了该汇率。但下行空间受限，因日本进口商买进美元;美国3月份工厂订单意外上扬1.3%;以及随著美国经济逐步复苏，市场对于美国联邦储备委员会收紧货币政策的步伐将快于欧洲和日本央行的猜测带动美元人气走强。 图5-1 图5-2 2010年7月日元汇率走势料将盘整，因美元全线走软;市场人士将等待日本央行的货币政策决定以及该行行长将在格林威治时间0630召开的新闻发布会。日本央行可能将政策利率目标维持在0.1%，而且也不会进一步采取非常规宽松措施。美元人气受到打压，因美国6月份零售额降幅大于预期，而且FOMC 6月22-23日会议的会议纪要暗示Fed下调了美国经济增长预期。美国股市前夜涨跌互见，因而未能对日圆融资套利交易提供明确的线索。进口结算引发的美元需求对美元兑日圆构成支撑，但汇率涨幅受到日本进口商抛盘及美国国债收益率走低的限制。若格林威治时间0200公布的中国经济数据出人意料，则日圆可能会出现波动 5、 2010年日元汇率变动分析: 2011年从基本面看，日本大地震后，经济损失惨重，政府债务雪上加霜，按理说应该对日元形成空头压力。但日元的实际走势却恰恰相反。分析人士认为，日元短期飙升，主要development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking 是因为灾区救援和灾后重建以及保险理赔等需要大量资金，不少日本企业抛售海外资产，资金回流导致短期内日元需求大增因此出现汇率升值。此外，每年3月底4月初是日本的会计年度结算期，许多日本跨国企业往往在此时将资金汇回国内，这与地震后资金回流形成叠加效应。 图3-11 图3-12 2011年1月根据日本官方数据，地震后实际回流的资金没有传言的那么大规模。这意味着存在大量投机资金借机做多日元的可能性。 图3-11 图3-12 2011年3月为缓解市场流动性紧张局面，稳定市场情绪，日本央行在地震后连续三天向市场注资，注资额超过40万亿日元。这一行为表明日本央行抑制日元过度升值的决心。七大工业国集团(G7)举行电话会议，讨论日本地震对经济影响后发表声明，表示将密切关注汇市，适当时将紧密合作，确保巿场有序。声明指出，美国、英国、加拿大及欧洲央行将与日本共同干预汇市。 2011年 5月从后市来看，分析人士认为，市场心理对日元后期走势很关键。日本震后灾情的进一步发展，将直接作用于市场心理，而投资者心理是短期推高日元的重要原因之一。因此如果事态进一步恶化，不排除日元对美元继续走强。 act according to the law, establish the correct achievements view, and strive to create a stand the inspection of practice, people and history of performance. (5) the lead in implementation of strictly administering the party responsible. For tube party rule party poor, and party consciousness indifference, and party work missing, for subject responsibility, and "a gang double accountability" implementation not in place, and put business work and party work fragmented from of problem, for those think are wind anti-corruption effect economic development, errors views, set full strictly rule party forever in road of thought, set grasp party is maximum achievement, and caught bad party is not competent, and not caught party is dereliction of of consciousness, insisted thought party and system rule party close combined, strengthened according to rules rule party consciousness, Take responsibility for the party the party. Exercise to consciously accept the party's political life, adhere to the principle of democratic centralism, seriously carry out criticism and self criticism, rigorous daily management and supervision of party members, cadres, and maintain pressure against corruption. To improve style, cultivating good family tradition, care of families of the children and staff, press ", clear" principle correctly handle the relationship between Government and business, to create fresh political ecology and the politics of environment. Grasping the learning content, the learning needs of more than at the same time, both party members and leading cadres, and also practice job practice, further unify their thinking and action, clear work objectives and direction. To control measures in the speech requirement, implementation analysis, identify gaps and weaknesses, target put forward specific measures to strengthen and improve the work, ensuring the spirit landing implementation. Third, learn about ways to highlight the features of regular education, stick with the party branch as the basic development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking 2011年7月随着日元汇率飙升，日本政府出手干预市场的可能性也大大增加。对于日本这样一个高度依赖出口的经济体来说，强势日元绝不是件好事。分析人士认为，如果目前的注资行为仍无法阻止日元升值，日本政府可能像去年9月一样直接买入美元干预汇市。 环球外汇交易公司研究部主管凯蒂?利恩认为，日本央行在1美元兑换75 2011年9月 至80日元的价位区间买入美元干预市场的可能性非常大。但她同时表示，日本政府需要得到其他经济体的支持才能使干预行动获得成功。 2011年11月七国集团(G7)已宣布，将于17日召开财长和央行行长会议。美国银行外汇分析师帕雷什?乌帕德亚雅认为，在目前的情况下，日本央行的单边干预措施将会得到国际社会的理解和支持。 随着日元汇率持续走高，市场上做空日元的力量正在积聚。美国投资巨头标准人寿投资总监肯?迪克森认为，目前美元对日元价位已相当具有吸引力，并表示买入美元的“绝佳时机”即将到来。 development of problem, insisted liberation thought, and times, set on new development concept of consciously confidence, do advocate innovation, and focused on coordination, and advocate green, and thick plant open, and advance shared. For in economic development new normal Shang of awareness errors, deep awareness economic development new normal of objective inevitability, prevent one-sidedness, and simplistic, cannot to whether on himself favourable to judge new normal bad; cannot put new normal as a basket, what are to in loaded; cannot put new normal as haven, put work bad do, and didn't dry good of reasons are due Yu new normal, for not officer, and not development find excuses. Actively promote the supply side of structural reforms and implement the CPC Central Committee defined "five pillars of policy" and "five priorities", implementation of the Central Government, provincial party Committee and the major decisions and arrangements of the party support accelerated development of XX XX, a good grasp of Fujian construction of free trade zone area XX XX block major historical opportunity. (4) lead to overcome difficulty, dare to play. Dare not sword, before major problems before dare not afraid to come forward for difficulties, crises, mistakes afraid to take responsibility, before the evil struggle before asking Problems, strengthen the sense of responsibility, to take charge. Don't want to under the new situation, not as good as issues, enhance vigor, growing new skills, new, do dry dry dry active, do we want to do good, and enthusiasm to take Shi Liuyin, grasping the iron mark implementation, promoter of reform and development, and a doer. Insist on seeking