杭州拱墅区报告1

杭州拱墅区报告1 杭州项目市场报告 1、城市研究 1、1城市宏观经济环境分析 2007 年，杭州市全市生产总值(GDP)突破4000亿元，达到4103.89亿元，按可比价格计算，比上年增长14.6,，已连续17年保持两位数增长。其中第一产业167.57亿元，增长2.6,;第二产业 2059.15亿元，增长14.4,;第三产业1877.17亿元，增长16.1,。三次产业的比例为4.1:50.2:45.7。按户籍人口计算，全市人均GDP达61313元，根据年平均汇率计算，突破8000美元，达8063美元。 三大需求实现同步拉动 , 市场消费增速创1995年以来的新高。2007年，全年实现社会消费品零售总 额1296.31亿元，同比增长16.5,，增幅比上年高2.5个百分点，创1995 年以来新高。 , 投资需求增长加快。2007年，全市完成全社会固定资产投资1684.13亿元， 其中限额以上固定资产投资完成1583.78亿元，同比均增长15.3,，增幅比 上年分别提高5.2个和7.8个百分点。房地产开发投资稳步回升。在限额以 上投资中，房地产开发投资完成518.79亿元，增长17.2,，高出上年8.6 个百分点。投资结构不断改善。 , 出口结构改善。2007年，全市外贸出口299.66亿美元，增长 14.3,，增幅 同比回落18.1个百分点;不包括省公司为232亿美元，增长16.1,;全市 进口总额134.6亿美元，增长6.2,。在出口总额中， 一般贸易出口215.15 亿美元，同比增长26.7,，增幅同比提高5.4个百分点。 , 现代服务业加快发展。初步核算，全市第三产业实现增加值1877.17亿元， 按可比价格计算，同比增长 16.1,，增幅比全市平均水平高1.5个百分点， 比工业高1.2个百分点。第三产业占GDP的比重达到45.7,，比上年提高 0.6个百分点。服务业对全市经济增长的贡献度达到49.8,。在第三产业中，operation 5 no create mechanical ventilation 5 3. high requirements (1) learning disease species and the cases number requirements disease species cases number (?) Lung abscess 1 card's lung cysticercosis pneumonia 1 lung tumor 2 between quality sex lung disease 2 sleep breathing suspended integrated levy 1 (2) clinical knowledge, and skills requirements operation technology name cases times (?) lung function check 2 Lung dissolved tied operation 2 bronchial mirror check (trainee) 2 bronchial alveolar irrigation wash (trainee) 2 (3) language , Teaching, research and other requirements: reading English documents, assist in clinical teaching (courses, internship courses) and participate in clinical research activities. (Ii) cardiovascular section/CCU 1. Rotary purpose master: acute Crown pulse integrated levy, and congestive heart failure, and primary hypertension, and rhythm disorders, and acute myocarditis, and acute pericarditis of causes, and pathology physiological, and clinical performance, and diagnosis, and identification diagnosis and treatment; common cardiovascular drug of adapted card and using method, and ECG check and diagnosis, and drug anti-tied and dissolved tied operation, and except fibrillation and electrical cardioversion law operation. Familiar with infective endocarditis, valvular heart disease, constrictive pericarditis, congenital heart disease, peripheral vascular 以金融业、科学研究技术服务、信息传输计算机服务和软件业为代的现代 服务业加快发展，其中金融业实现增加值310.5亿元，同比增长20.1,。 , 旅游事业实现新的突破。2007年，全市实现旅游总收入突破600 亿元，达 到630.06亿元，增长15.8,。 财政金融运行平稳 , 财政收入增长较快。2007年，全市财政总收入和地方财政收入分别为788.42 亿元和391.62亿元，比上年增长26.3,和29.9,，增幅同比提高6.4和9.6 个百分点。全市财政支出335.71亿元，同比增长21.9,。 , 货币信贷运行平稳。2007年末，全市金融机构本外币存款余额达到 9310.97 亿元，比年初增加1429.75亿元。其中，城乡储蓄余额为2634.83亿元，比 年初增加83.31亿元。全市金融机构本外币贷款余额达 到8430.67亿元， 比年初增加1051.31亿元，比上年少增122.42亿元。个人消费信贷大幅上 升。年末全市个人消费贷款余额达到1130.6亿 元，比年初增加339.33亿 元，增加额为上年同期的4.21倍。其中住房贷款比年初增加273.05亿元， 增加额为上年同期的4.75倍。 , 居民消费价格上涨创近10年来的新高。与2006年相比，杭州市居民消费价 格总水平上涨3.5,，涨幅比上年扩大2.3个百分点。 居民消费价格指数 项目 2007年 2006年 市区居民消费价格指数(上年,100) 103.5 101.2 1、食品 108.0 101.3 2、烟酒及用品 102.4 101.2 3、衣着 101.4 99.8 4、家庭设备用品及维修服务 102.2 102.8 operation 5 no create mechanical ventilation 5 3. high requirements (1) learning disease species and the cases number requirements disease species cases number (?) Lung abscess 1 card's lung cysticercosis pneumonia 1 lung tumor 2 between quality sex lung disease 2 sleep breathing suspended integrated levy 1 (2) clinical knowledge, and skills requirements operation technology name cases times (?) lung function check 2 Lung dissolved tied operation 2 bronchial mirror check (trainee) 2 bronchial alveolar irrigation wash (trainee) 2 (3) language , Teaching, research and other requirements: reading English documents, assist in clinical teaching (courses, internship courses) and participate in clinical research activities. (Ii) cardiovascular section/CCU 1. Rotary purpose master: acute Crown pulse integrated levy, and congestive heart failure, and primary hypertension, and rhythm disorders, and acute myocarditis, and acute pericarditis of causes, and pathology physiological, and clinical performance, and diagnosis, and identification diagnosis and treatment; common cardiovascular drug of adapted card and using method, and ECG check and diagnosis, and drug anti-tied and dissolved tied operation, and except fibrillation and electrical cardioversion law operation. Familiar with infective endocarditis, valvular heart disease, constrictive pericarditis, congenital heart disease, peripheral vascular 5、医疗保健和个人用品 103.3 103.3 6、交通和通信 98.2 100.0 7、娱乐教育文化用品及服务 100.1 98.6 8、居住 104.0 104.5 经济运行中存在的矛盾和薄弱环节主要是:经济结构调整难度加大，自主创新能力有待提高;农民持续增收压力加大，城乡、区域发展不够平衡;食品、住房等价格上涨较快，节能减排形势依然严峻。 1、2城市人口及收入状况 据市区居民家庭的调查资料显示，2007年市区居民人均家庭总收入24475元，比上年增长14.5,，人均可支配收入为21689元，增长14,，剔除价格上涨因素实际增长10.1,。其中人均工资性收入16293元，同比增长12.9,;人均经营性收入2027元，同比增长13.6,;人均财产性收入584元，同比增长28.4,。 、房地产市场情况 2 2、1 2007年杭州房地产市场情况概述 2007年杭州楼市房源供不应求、房价飞速高涨、开发商捂盘惜售、豪宅遍地开花。 ?供求关系 截至2007年12月31日，杭州主城区共计推出商品房(包括住宅、写字楼、商铺)449.54万?，与去年相比减少了14.9%(约合78.6万?);杭州主城区共计成交商品房503.1万?，与去年同期相比增加了53.95%。 年初开发商推案数量偏少，但是春节这个以往的楼市淡季在2007年度表现稳健，1-6月成交量呈现不断上升的趋势。下半年，虽然供应量继续保持上升的态势，但在多次加息的压力和房产宏观调控政策不断出台的情况下，消费者购买回归理性，市场观望氛围浓厚。 operation 5 no create mechanical ventilation 5 3. high requirements (1) learning disease species and the cases number requirements disease species cases number (?) Lung abscess 1 card's lung cysticercosis pneumonia 1 lung tumor 2 between quality sex lung disease 2 sleep breathing suspended integrated levy 1 (2) clinical knowledge, and skills requirements operation technology name cases times (?) lung function check 2 Lung dissolved tied operation 2 bronchial mirror check (trainee) 2 bronchial alveolar irrigation wash (trainee) 2 (3) language , Teaching, research and other requirements: reading English documents, assist in clinical teaching (courses, internship courses) and participate in clinical research activities. (Ii) cardiovascular section/CCU 1. Rotary purpose master: acute Crown pulse integrated levy, and congestive heart failure, and primary hypertension, and rhythm disorders, and acute myocarditis, and acute pericarditis of causes, and pathology physiological, and clinical performance, and diagnosis, and identification diagnosis and treatment; common cardiovascular drug of adapted card and using method, and ECG check and diagnosis, and drug anti-tied and dissolved tied operation, and except fibrillation and electrical cardioversion law operation. Familiar with infective endocarditis, valvular heart disease, constrictive pericarditis, congenital heart disease, peripheral vascular ?成交量分析 截至2007年12月31日，杭州主城区共计成交商品房39471套，与去年相比增加了47.15%(12647套)。 6月的楼市成交量达到了2007年的顶峰，6月共计成交6532套商品房，约是去年同期的2.2倍。10月以后由于屡次加息的叠加效应购房者的购房热情有所下降，而国家对房地产行业的宏观调控措施进一步深化加剧了市场的观望氛围。 ? 成交均价 商品房销售均价大体在10000元/平方米以上的价格区间变动。11月份，一系列高档项目的大量成交，快速拉升了整个区域的成交价格，成交价格达到全年的最高位14791.33元/平方米。但稍后的12月，近郊中低档产品的大量成交抑制了总体均价的上涨，价格调整至13341.76元/平方米，全年累计上涨36.79%。 2、2房地产板块构成(房地产布局) 2.2.1杭城六大房产板块区域划分范围表 市中心板块 西至紫荆花，北达石祥路，东到火车东站及铁路沿线，南到钱塘江。 operation 5 no create mechanical ventilation 5 3. high requirements (1) learning disease species and the cases number requirements disease species cases number (?) Lung abscess 1 card's lung cysticercosis pneumonia 1 lung tumor 2 between quality sex lung disease 2 sleep breathing suspended integrated levy 1 (2) clinical knowledge, and skills requirements operation technology name cases times (?) lung function check 2 Lung dissolved tied operation 2 bronchial mirror check (trainee) 2 bronchial alveolar irrigation wash (trainee) 2 (3) language , Teaching, research and other requirements: reading English documents, assist in clinical teaching (courses, internship courses) and participate in clinical research activities. (Ii) cardiovascular section/CCU 1. Rotary purpose master: acute Crown pulse integrated levy, and congestive heart failure, and primary hypertension, and rhythm disorders, and acute myocarditis, and acute pericarditis of causes, and pathology physiological, and clinical performance, and diagnosis, and identification diagnosis and treatment; common cardiovascular drug of adapted card and using method, and ECG check and diagnosis, and drug anti-tied and dissolved tied operation, and except fibrillation and electrical cardioversion law operation. Familiar with infective endocarditis, valvular heart disease, constrictive pericarditis, congenital heart disease, peripheral vascular 大城北板块 三墩、半山、丁桥、良渚等区域 大城东板块 九堡、下沙等区域 大城西板块 老余杭、闲林、五常、小和山等区域 大滨江板块 滨江、湘湖、闻堰等区域 其他板块 银湖、之江等区域 2.2.2 2007杭州市六大房地产板块形势解析 , 可售商品房面积以市中心板块为首;容积率以市中心为首、其他板块最低， 两极分化趋势明显 operation 5 no create mechanical ventilation 5 3. high requirements (1) learning disease species and the cases number requirements disease species cases number (?) Lung abscess 1 card's lung cysticercosis pneumonia 1 lung tumor 2 between quality sex lung disease 2 sleep breathing suspended integrated levy 1 (2) clinical knowledge, and skills requirements operation technology name cases times (?) lung function check 2 Lung dissolved tied operation 2 bronchial mirror check (trainee) 2 bronchial alveolar irrigation wash (trainee) 2 (3) language , Teaching, research and other requirements: reading English documents, assist in clinical teaching (courses, internship courses) and participate in clinical research activities. (Ii) cardiovascular section/CCU 1. Rotary purpose master: acute Crown pulse integrated levy, and congestive heart failure, and primary hypertension, and rhythm disorders, and acute myocarditis, and acute pericarditis of causes, and pathology physiological, and clinical performance, and diagnosis, and identification diagnosis and treatment; common cardiovascular drug of adapted card and using method, and ECG check and diagnosis, and drug anti-tied and dissolved tied operation, and except fibrillation and electrical cardioversion law operation. Familiar with infective endocarditis, valvular heart disease, constrictive pericarditis, congenital heart disease, peripheral vascular (备注:可售面积为在售项目的可销售的总体面积，而非目前各项目推出量;容积率为在售楼盘的平均容积率。以下数据统计口径均为在售楼盘，不在注明。) 从在售楼盘的可售面积来看，市中心板块仍遥遥领先，供应总量高达125.21万平方米，占全市总量的39.71,，大滨江、大城西板块尾随其后。 从容积率指标对比来看，目前仍以市中心板块为首，平均容积率高达2.97，目前市中心板块在售楼盘以小高层、高层为主;而其他板块(之江、银湖等区域)仅为0.8，目前在售楼盘以别墅、排屋为主，呈现两极分化态势。 , 目前在售楼盘项目数量市中心板块遥遥领先 从在售楼盘数量上来看，目前市中心板块遥遥领先，占到全市的52.5,，大滨江、大城西、大城北、大城东板块目前在售项目相差不是很大，但其容积率在1.39—2.71之间，特别是大滨江、大城北、大城东容积率相差更小，提供的大多以小高层、高层的公寓住房为主;这三个板块竞争非常激烈。 , 户型结构配比分析 对杭城六大房产板块在售200多个楼盘的户型结构供应情况进行抽样调查， 近半年来杭城六大房产板块存量房市场户型结构变化如下: 受“70/90”国家宏观调控政策的影响，杭城半年来商品房存量房结构发生了巨大变化，最明显的就是90平方米以下的存量有半年前的 11.88,提高到目前的33,;而较大户型(120—144平方米)半年来则由30.42,下降到21,，预计随着国家调控政策的继续实施，未来杭城的商品房供应市场户型结构将进一步出现两极分化，小户型的比重将越来越大，大户型比重将越来越低。 , 各板块楼盘销售形式分析 目前市场成交的户型仍以120—180平米的三房、四房为主，二、三月份其成交总量占到全市的六成以上，这说明杭城目前仍呈现出明显的自住型置业特征，以改善型需求为主;而小户型需求则没有因为杭城小户型供应量的增加而增加，供应结构矛盾明显。目前大城北板块、市中心、大滨江板块销售业绩较好。 , 以价格为导向的置业倾向明显 operation 5 no create mechanical ventilation 5 3. high requirements (1) learning disease species and the cases number requirements disease species cases number (?) Lung abscess 1 card's lung cysticercosis pneumonia 1 lung tumor 2 between quality sex lung disease 2 sleep breathing suspended integrated levy 1 (2) clinical knowledge, and skills requirements operation technology name cases times (?) lung function check 2 Lung dissolved tied operation 2 bronchial mirror check (trainee) 2 bronchial alveolar irrigation wash (trainee) 2 (3) language , Teaching, research and other requirements: reading English documents, assist in clinical teaching (courses, internship courses) and participate in clinical research activities. (Ii) cardiovascular section/CCU 1. Rotary purpose master: acute Crown pulse integrated levy, and congestive heart failure, and primary hypertension, and rhythm disorders, and acute myocarditis, and acute pericarditis of causes, and pathology physiological, and clinical performance, and diagnosis, and identification diagnosis and treatment; common cardiovascular drug of adapted card and using method, and ECG check and diagnosis, and drug anti-tied and dissolved tied operation, and except fibrillation and electrical cardioversion law operation. Familiar with infective endocarditis, valvular heart disease, constrictive pericarditis, congenital heart disease, peripheral vascular 市中心、大滨江板块是目前客户置业重点方向之一，相比之下，向西、向东置业走势仍不甚突出。市中心销售均价位居前列，并且比其余板块平均价格高3000元/平方米以上;受其影响，大量置业客户向周边板块转移，造成大滨江、大城西、大城北、大城东板块竞争甚嚣尘上，可见以价格为导向的置业倾向将日益明显。 2、4 2008年杭州房地产市场未来走势分析 2.4.1大势取向 , 宏观经济层面 2008年经济发展基调防过热、防通胀、重民生 2008年实现经济发展的基点主要是防止经济转向过热和明显通胀，同时政府将投入更多财力改善民生，促进社会和谐。2008年经济工作的重点提出要坚持好字优先，促进经济发展方式加快转变，坚持扩大内需的方针，着力增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。采取有力措施稳定物价，抑制房地产价格过快上涨，也是中国政府面临的迫切任务之一。 “商品属性”向“公共属性”转变 中国房地产市场进入转型期，中国房地产业的商品属性正在向公共属性转变，强调“居者有其屋”的公共属性，保证了房地产市场发展的基本面支撑。建设部表示，未来三年内，廉租房和经济适用房投资将呈翻番趋势。 , 行业政策层面 2008年的政策调控主要以贯彻执行为主要原则，重点落实宏观层面制定相应的政策，使政策能够在微观层面得到贯彻和执行，进一步规范房地产市场。因此预计2008年政府的调控政策会相对比较缓和，主要倾向于对原有政策的执行和补充。 2008年的宏观调控政策部署中，明确提出，要实施稳健的财政政策和从紧的货币政策，这意味着中国整体经济增长速度将有所放缓，开发operation 5 no create mechanical ventilation 5 3. high requirements (1) learning disease species and the cases number requirements disease species cases number (?) Lung abscess 1 card's lung cysticercosis pneumonia 1 lung tumor 2 between quality sex lung disease 2 sleep breathing suspended integrated levy 1 (2) clinical knowledge, and skills requirements operation technology name cases times (?) lung function check 2 Lung dissolved tied operation 2 bronchial mirror check (trainee) 2 bronchial alveolar irrigation wash (trainee) 2 (3) language , Teaching, research and other requirements: reading English documents, assist in clinical teaching (courses, internship courses) and participate in clinical research activities. (Ii) cardiovascular section/CCU 1. Rotary purpose master: acute Crown pulse integrated levy, and congestive heart failure, and primary hypertension, and rhythm disorders, and acute myocarditis, and acute pericarditis of causes, and pathology physiological, and clinical performance, and diagnosis, and identification diagnosis and treatment; common cardiovascular drug of adapted card and using method, and ECG check and diagnosis, and drug anti-tied and dissolved tied operation, and except fibrillation and electrical cardioversion law operation. Familiar with infective endocarditis, valvular heart disease, constrictive pericarditis, congenital heart disease, peripheral vascular 商的资金流将受到一定考验。同时国土资源部发布39号令，开发商再也不能用少量的启动资金来撬动大额的银行贷款，对目前过热的房地产市场将起到抑制作用，部分开发商将因此淡出房地产市场。 国务院发布《关于解决城市低收入家庭住房困难的若干意见》(24号文)。《意见》明确“廉租住房、经济适用住房和中低价位、中小套型普通商品住房建设用地的年度供应量不得低于居住用地供应占总量的70%”。受其影响，预计2008年住宅供应结构将发生重大变化:廉租住房、经济适用住房和中低价位、中小套型普通商品这四种产品将成为供应主流，大户型公寓、别墅、高档住宅的供应比重将大幅下降。 2007年央行连续6次调息，二次房贷新政更是直指房地产市场，市场观望气氛浓厚，一线城市普遍表现有价无市。故而央行对按揭贷款的加息已采取了审慎而稳健的态度，预计在短期内应不会再对购房按揭贷款的利率作大幅和高频率的调整。所以，08年的房贷政策应该会趋于相对的平稳。 , 市场发展层面 自2006年6月70/90政策之后，90平方米以下户型开始日渐在楼市占据主要地位，2007年杭州小户型房源上市量占了总住宅房源的30%，比2006年提高了14%。2008年是新政后地块的上市“大年”，90平方米以下户型要占70%的政策进一步影响户型供应格局，相对于2007年，今年中小户型供应比重将进一步增加，竞争将异常激烈。相反，大户型高端物业的供应比重将日渐减少，其购买群体主要是二次以上置业者，能承受的价格变动空间更大，市场行情看涨。 2.4.2市场趋势 根据2007年杭州房地产市场发展走势看，2008年杭州房地产市场在大势上预计仍将保持基本稳定，但在不同的时间节点上仍会有一些变化，因此我们把2008年全年的市场发展分为两个阶段: operation 5 no create mechanical ventilation 5 3. high requirements (1) learning disease species and the cases number requirements disease species cases number (?) Lung abscess 1 card's lung cysticercosis pneumonia 1 lung tumor 2 between quality sex lung disease 2 sleep breathing suspended integrated levy 1 (2) clinical knowledge, and skills requirements operation technology name cases times (?) lung function check 2 Lung dissolved tied operation 2 bronchial mirror check (trainee) 2 bronchial alveolar irrigation wash (trainee) 2 (3) language , Teaching, research and other requirements: reading English documents, assist in clinical teaching (courses, internship courses) and participate in clinical research activities. (Ii) cardiovascular section/CCU 1. Rotary purpose master: acute Crown pulse integrated levy, and congestive heart failure, and primary hypertension, and rhythm disorders, and acute myocarditis, and acute pericarditis of causes, and pathology physiological, and clinical performance, and diagnosis, and identification diagnosis and treatment; common cardiovascular drug of adapted card and using method, and ECG check and diagnosis, and drug anti-tied and dissolved tied operation, and except fibrillation and electrical cardioversion law operation. Familiar with infective endocarditis, valvular heart disease, constrictive pericarditis, congenital heart disease, peripheral vascular 第一阶段:呈U字型波动 2008年春节前将会有一波楼盘上市，其中有不少新面孔是众多消费者期待已久的楼盘，客户积累比较充足，加上年初办理银行贷款比较顺畅，预计将会形成一个销售小高峰。3-4月份历来是房产销售的淡季，市场将进入一个调整期。直到年中，市场又会逐渐回升稳定，小户型将成为市场上的成交主力。 第二阶段:呈倒U字型波动 2008年下半年整体市场将会比较平稳，不可能出现类似07年的爆发性增长，也不可能出现全面开花的局面，而是区域市场将成为阶段性的热点。市场将会更加理性，遵从市场价值规律原则，不会有太大的波动，也不可能出现拐点。 3、万通项目 3、1 未入市土地状况 北京万通房地产股份有限公司于2007年12月3日参与杭州市国有土地使用权公开挂牌出让活动，竞得杭政储出[2007]74号地块的土地使用权，受让土地面积17522平方米，应价总额为人民币56812万元，楼面价为6004元/方。 该地块位于杭州市拱墅区，宗地具体四至范围:东至上塘路，南至道路，西至规划道路，北至紫荆路。该地块为商业金融用地，容积率不超过5.4，限高90米。 operation 5 no create mechanical ventilation 5 3. high requirements (1) learning disease species and the cases number requirements disease species cases number (?) Lung abscess 1 card's lung cysticercosis pneumonia 1 lung tumor 2 between quality sex lung disease 2 sleep breathing suspended integrated levy 1 (2) clinical knowledge, and skills requirements operation technology name cases times (?) lung function check 2 Lung dissolved tied operation 2 bronchial mirror check (trainee) 2 bronchial alveolar irrigation wash (trainee) 2 (3) language , Teaching, research and other requirements: reading English documents, assist in clinical teaching (courses, internship courses) and participate in clinical research activities. (Ii) cardiovascular section/CCU 1. Rotary purpose master: acute Crown pulse integrated levy, and congestive heart failure, and primary hypertension, and rhythm disorders, and acute myocarditis, and acute pericarditis of causes, and pathology physiological, and clinical performance, and diagnosis, and identification diagnosis and treatment; common cardiovascular drug of adapted card and using method, and ECG check and diagnosis, and drug anti-tied and dissolved tied operation, and except fibrillation and electrical cardioversion law operation. Familiar with infective endocarditis, valvular heart disease, constrictive pericarditis, congenital heart disease, peripheral vascular