没有乔布斯 苹果会怎样

没有乔布斯 苹果会怎样 How Apple Could Survive Without Steve Jobs Apple Inc. set off shock waves Tuesday by announcing Steve Jobs will not speak at what the company said would be its final appearance at the Macworld trade show. The news sent the company's stock downward, and raised questions about whether Mr. Jobs had new health problems or some new products were not ready. But another question is likely to persist after the debate dies down: How well could Apple keep up the pace of new products without its iconic chief executive? Speculation about the continued reign of Mr. Jobs -- which has popped up from time to time since his 2004 treatment for cancer -- underscore how closely Apple's fashion-setting products are identified with its co-founder. There is no sign of any change in his status; an Apple spokesman won't address the issue of his health, but said, 'If Steve or the board decides that Steve is no longer capable of doing his job as CEO of Apple, I am sure they will let you know.' What if that situation does change? There is reason for optimism, based on the evolution of the team that develops Apple's hardware, software and services, some people familiar with the company's internal workings say. Some of them believe the group is now strong enough that, barring an exodus of top talent, the company could keep churning out innovative products without Mr. Jobs. Mr. Jobs did not respond to a request for comment. In one possible sign of confidence in the management team, an unprecedented number of executives presented during the company's press event to unveil its new MacBook lineup in October, though Mr. Jobs still dominated the event. Mr. Jobs returned to Apple in 1997? he had left in 1985? and has since overseen the introduction of such ground-breaking products as the iMac, iPod and iPhone. He plays an unusually important role for a CEO in the gestation of such gadgets, agonizing over details that could impact users' experience. Not that Mr. Jobs actually designs products himself. He serves more like an 'editor in chief' in refining and improving ideas for Apple gadgets, according to former Apple executives. 'He didn't come up with the ideas, he just filtered them,' says Bill Bull, a retired Apple engineer who worked for Mr. Jobs at Apple in the 1980s and again after Mr. Jobs returned. The hands-on work of Apple's innovations depend more directly on subordinates such as Jonathan Ive, an Apple senior vice president who oversees the company's industrial design team. His group is primarily associated with the physical look and feel of products, such as the unusually slender Macbook Air. Scott Forstall, another senior vice president, leads the team responsible for the iPhone's operating system and other software. In a sign of his growing importance at the company, Mr. Forstall was twice given the chance to speak at media and technical events earlier this year--and has shown some of the same showmanship that is Mr. Jobs' trademark. Other crucial figures at Apple now include Ron Johnson, senior vice president of Apple retail, who has masterminded the success of Apple's stores, the hip electronics emporiums that have played a crucial role in the growth of the iPod and Macintosh in recent years. One change to the team was the announcement in early November that Tony Fadell was stepping down as senior vice president of Apple's iPod division, which makes the innards of those popular gadgets carry out their products' slick features. He first conceived of the iPod, and convinced Mr. Jobs to support the idea despite skepticism from others in the company. Mr. Fadell said he will remain an adviser to Mr. Jobs; Mark Papermaster, a former International Business Machines Corp. executive, has been named to assume the iPod post. For every design project in the pipeline, Mr. Jobs will hold meetings of two or three hours every week or two with key members of the product team. At those meetings, Mr. Jobs will critique the work in progress and also suggest adding or cutting features. Glenn Reid, a software developer during Apple's early years who had another stint at the company that ended in 2003, says Mr. Jobs's unwillingness to accept compromises and the unquestioned authority that lets him issue last-minute edicts have become a key to Apple's success in developing new products. George Crow, an Apple engineer in the 1980s and again from 1998 to 2005, noted that the company struggled during the years when Mr. Jobs was not running Apple. On the other hand, certain of Mr. Jobs's uncompromising principles with computers such as wanting 'to make the inside beautiful' ran counter to more practical impulses. On the original Macintosh PC, Mr. Crow says, Mr. Jobs wanted the internal wiring to be in the colors of Apple's early rainbow logo (Mr. Crow says he eventually convinced Mr. Jobs it was an unnecessary expense). Michael Mace, who worked at Apple during Mr. Jobs's absence, argues that Apple should have a successor on the product side who's given a mandate to singlehandedly make key decisions, like Mr. Jobs does now. When Mr. Jobs was gone, Mr. Mace said, good ideas were often lost when committees of executives would compromise too much. 'What they would choose was the safest design,' he said, rather than the best one. But Mr. Crow contends that Mr. Jobs has now hired or elevated enough people whose product vision mirrors his that the company could continue to thrive. Mr. Ive is particularly in tune with Mr. Jobs's thinking, he notes. Mr. Jobs's sensibilities are also so deeply ingrained in lower-ranking designers and engineers that 'a lot of people there will say 'gee, what would Steve think about this,' when Steve really isn't thinking about it,' Mr. Crow says. Rick Devine, an executive recruiter in Silicon Valley with Devine Capital Partners, thinks Apple could continue to thrive in a post-Jobs world, predicting that the company will depend more on execution in the coming years than the kind of radical reshaping Mr. Jobs engineered over the past decade. Mr. Devine helped recruit Tim Cook, now Apple's chief operating officer, to the company more than a decade ago. Mr. Cook, who briefly ran Apple during Mr. Jobs's cancer treatment four years ago, is widely expected to immediately pick up the reins again if that were to become necessary. But the choice of a permanent successor may be another question. Apple won't discuss details of its succession plan. Most observers believe that without Mr. Jobs -- whose on-stage product revelations have become major media events -- the 'kind of excitement that comes out on a periodic basis would be far less,' said Charlie Wolf, an analyst who follows Apple for Needham & Co. There is little sign that Mr. Jobs is ready to give up the position of public pitchman, despite Apple's announcement Tuesday that said the keynote presentation at this year's Macworld show in early January will be given by Phillip Schiller, its marketing chief. Apple spokesman Steve Dowling traced the switch to its decision to stop using Macworld as a major forum. Though Mr. Jobs's gaunt appearance at an event last June event set off jitters about his health, subsequent statements Mr. Jobs made to associates suggested little reason for concern, people familiar with the matter say. He told associates that he recovered from an infection that kept him bedridden for several days before the June event, and previously had surgery to correct a digestive problem that caused weight loss, these people say. Mr. Jobs also told people at that time that he was cancer-free. 苹果公司(Apple Inc.)周二宣布，首席执行长乔布斯(Steve Jobs)不会出席明年1月的Macworld贸易展发表讲话，而且这将是苹果最后一次参加此展会。这一消息引发了轩然大波，苹果股价也因此下挫;外界怀疑苹果此举可能是因为乔布斯出现新的健康问题，或者某些新产品尚未准备到位。 或许上述猜疑会逐渐平息，但另一个问题会继续存在:如果离开灵魂人物乔布斯，苹果如何才能保持新产品的推出步伐, 自从2004年乔布斯传出接受癌症治疗之后，有关他是否继续执掌苹果公司的猜测就一直未见平息;这显示出苹果引领潮流的产品与这位联席创始人之间的紧密相连。没有迹象显示乔布斯在公司的地位出现变化。苹果公司发言人不愿谈论乔布斯的健康问题，但只是说如果乔布斯本人或董事会认为他无法继续承担CEO的职责，公司一定会公布的。 要是情况真的发生变化呢,熟悉苹果公司内部经营方式的人士称，从苹果公司软硬件开发和服务部门团队的发展来看，有理由对此保持乐观。一些人认为，如果不出现大量人才流失，苹果公司目前的强大实力足以保证它在乔布斯离开的情况下继续推出创新产品。 乔布斯对评论要求未做回应。 有一个迹象反映了苹果管理层的信心，在10月份MacBook新品发布会上，尽管仍是乔布斯主持，但出席活动的苹果高管数量比以往任何一次都要多。 乔布斯曾于1985年一度离开公司，又在1997年重新执掌苹果;此后他率领着苹果公司先后推出了iMac、iPod和iPhone等开创性产品，在这些产品的设计过程中发挥了异常重要的作用，在可能影响用户体验的每个细节都追求完美。 实际上，乔布斯自己并不设计产品。据苹果公司前高管称，乔布斯更像是一个精炼并改进产品创意的“主编”。 苹果公司退休师比尔•布尔(Bill Bull)称，乔布斯并不提出创意，他只是进行筛选。上世纪八十年代和乔布斯回归苹果之后，布尔曾在乔布斯手下工作。 苹果公司的具体创新工作更多地是由乔布斯的副手掌管，例如负责苹果工业设计团队的高级副总裁乔纳森•埃维(Jonathan Ive)。他的部门主要负责产品的外形和体验，如Macbook Air的超薄外形就出自他们的设计。 另一位高级副总裁斯科特•福斯特(Scott Forstall)领导的团队负责iPhone的操作系统及其他软件研发。今年早些时候他曾两次在媒体和技术活动上发表讲话，显示其在公司内部的重要性与日俱增。他的讲话风格也与乔布斯有相似之处。 苹果公司的其他重要人物还有，负责零售业务的高级副总裁让•约翰逊(Ron Johnson)，他成功了苹果专卖店;新颍时尚的苹果专卖店在iPod和Macintosh近些年的发展中发挥了重要作用。 苹果管理层的一个变化是，主管iPod业务的高级副总裁托尼•法德尔(Tony Fadell)于11月初宣布离职。他所领导的部门负责产品内核研发。法德尔最先提出iPod的创意，尽管遭到公司其他人的质疑，但他说服乔布斯支持这个想法。法德尔称，他仍将担任乔布斯的顾问;国际商业机器公司(International Business Machines)原高管马克•派普马斯特(Mark Papermaster)被任命接替法德尔的职位。 针对正在开发的每个设计项目，乔布斯每一到两周都会花两三个小时和产品小组的重要成员开会讨论。乔布斯会在这些会议上点评当前的工作，并就增加或削减产品功能提出建议。 格伦•雷德(Glenn Reid)曾在早期的苹果公司担任过软件开发员，后来还曾效力苹果，直至2003年。他表示，乔布斯不愿接受妥协，他有无可争辩的权威在最后一刻拍板定夺，这是苹果公司开发新产品的成功关键。乔治•克劳(George Crow)曾在上世纪八十年代担任苹果工程师，后来又在1998年至2005年重返苹果效力。他指出，乔布斯挂印而去的那些年，苹果一直业绩低迷。 另一方面，乔布斯对电脑某些毫不妥协的原则有时也会不切实际，例如他希望苹果电脑内部也美观亮丽。克劳表示，当初设计Macintosh电脑的时候，乔布斯希望内部线路也出现苹果早期彩虹标识的色彩。克劳说，自己最后说服了乔布斯，让他相信这是不必要的开销。 麦克尔•梅斯(Michael Mace)任职期间乔布斯不在苹果。他表示，苹果应该找一个能像乔布斯现在这样独当一面、拍板定案的继任者。梅斯说，乔布斯当年离去之后，出色的创意常常会因为管理层过于妥协而胎死腹中。他讲到，他们只会选择最稳妥的设计，而不是最出彩的方案。 不过克劳认为，乔布斯现在已经聘用或提拔了足够人才，他们的产品理念有乔布斯的影子，能够保证苹果公司继续取得成功。他表示，埃维就和乔布斯的思路尤为相通。克劳说，乔布斯的敏锐 觉也深深影响了苹果普通设计人员和工程人员，以致于很多苹果员工都会不由自主地问自己“恩，乔布斯会怎么看这个呢,”， Devine Capital Partners在硅谷的高管猎头里克•戴文(Rick Devine)认为，苹果会在后乔布斯时代延续成功之路;他预计未来数年苹果会更多地依靠执行力，而不会像乔布斯在过去十年那样立意革新。10多年前，戴文帮助苹果公司招募到了现任首席营运长的汤姆•库克(Tim Cook)。 四年前乔布斯因癌症接受治疗期间，库克曾短暂负责公司运营。外界普遍认为，如果再次出现必要情况，库克仍会立刻再次接手公司。不过选择乔布斯的正式接任者则是另外一个问题。 苹果公司没有谈论过乔布斯继任人选的细节。 Needham & Co.跟踪苹果公司的师沃尔夫(Charlie Wolf)说，大多数观察人士都认为，如果没有乔布斯和他引人瞩目的现场产品展示，那么这种定期出现的兴奋场合就会大为逊色。 尽管苹果公司周二表示，乔布斯将不会参加明年1月初的Macworld展会，主题讲话也将由公司营销总监席勒(Phillip Schiller)代劳;但目前还没有迹象显示乔布斯打算放弃苹果公众代言人的身份。苹果公司发言人道林(Steve Dowling)表示，公司这个决定是因为以后不打算通过Macworld作为主要营销平台。 去年6月份参加活动时，身形消瘦的乔布斯引发了外界对他健康状况的猜测。但知情人士透露，乔布斯随后发表声明请外界无须担心。这些人士透露，乔布斯当时表示，自己此前因病毒感染而卧床数日，参加活动时刚刚恢复，外形消瘦则是受到消化问题的困扰。乔布斯当时还说，自己的癌症已经痊愈。