如何提早退休

P.2 2005?9? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? ?????? ?????????????????? ???Hot Commodities???????? ?????????????????? ???????????? ?????? ??????????????? ??????????????? ?????????Ivy League busi- ness schools??????????? ????????????????? ????????????????? ?????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? ???(????)??????????? ?????? ?????????????1968???? ??????????????????? ?????????????????? ?????????????Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ?????????? 1973????????????????? ?????????????????? 4,200%?????500???????? ??50%???? ????? ?????????????????? ???????????????? ?????????????? ???????????? ?????80???? 1997?????? ?Quam Money????Polly?????????????????? ??????????????????????????????? ???????????Quam????????????????? ?????(Jim Rogers)??????????(George Soros)??? ???????(Quantum Fund)??37???????? ?????? ??????????????? Vincent Lam, Director, Quam Asset Management Limited Quam Money P.3 ?????????????????? ??????????????40%?? ????????????1996-97??? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? ???1996????????????? 30%???????????????? ?????1997?8?????????? ????13-14?? ??????????????????? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? 1983?1997????????????? ?1987??????????????? 1989???????1995??????? ??????????????????? ???????1997?????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ????????????????1997? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ????? ???????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? ?????? ???????1997?2003?????? ??????????????2004??? ??????????????????? ????????????2003????? ????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ???????????????? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? ????? ???????? ?????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ???????????????? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? 2003???????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????? ??????????????? ??????????????? ??????????????? ??????????????? ??????????????? ??????????????? ???????????????? ?????? ????????????????? ????????????? ???????? ???????????? ???????????? ??????????? ?????????8%? ??????????? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? ???? ???????????? ?????80???????????? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? ???800????????50%???? ?????????????????? ?????????????????? ????500????????????? ??????400?????20????? ?????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????????????? ??????????? P.4 2005?9? ?????????????????????? ?????????????????????? ?????????????????????? ?????????? ????????????????????? ????????????????????? ????????????????????? ????????????????????? ????? ???????? ????????????? ????????????????????? ????????????????????? ????????????????????? ????????????????????? ????????? ?????? “Good question,’’ I replied to Polly, Quam Money’s coordinator, when she told me that this month’s topic was “How to retire early?”. ‘’But you may be asking the wrong person,’’ I added. If I have the answer, I may not need to work for Quam any more, but would rather be busy planning an around-the-world adventure following in the footsteps of Jim Rogers, who retired at the age of 37 as a co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros. Since I am not qualified to answer the question, I need to borrow ideas from someone who has successfully retired. I will tell you the story of Jim Rogers and see how he managed to retire early. I have not finished reading his latest book Hot Commodities, but based on some bits and pieces of information that I collected, I have managed to roughly figure out how he was able to retire so early. Be a Student of Human History Jim Rogers was quite different from other Wall Street fund managers who are mostly graduates of North America’s Ivy League business schools. Rogers, however, studied history at Yale University, and when he got a scholarship to Oxford University, he studied philosophy and economics. Because of his academic background, he has a very good sense of the history of mankind. While studying the history of financial markets, like the history of any other human activity, an experienced analyst can recognize some traceable historical patterns. If one manages to interpret those patterns well, one will be able to predict a mega economic trend earlier than most investors. The study of history helped mould the way Jim Rogers managed his (and his clients’) money, which turned out to be extremely successful. After serving in the US army for two years, Rogers joined a Wall Street stockbrokerage firm as a research analyst in 1968, a time when the bull market in Wall Street was about to come to an end. Two years later, he moved to Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder, an old European investment bank, where he met George Soros. They shared the same view that the US stock market was going to experience a secular bear market that may last for more than a decade. In the meantime, commodities were at the dawn of a secular bull market. In 1973, Soros invited Rogers to set up the Quantum Fund. During the 10 years that the fund was under Rogers’s management, their fund soared 4,200% while the S&P 500 was up less than 50%. Identify Mega Trends By mega trends, I mean some economic developments in human history that last for decades. History tends to repeat itself. One major mega trend in Hong Kong’s economic history that I missed out was the secular bull market in Hong Kong’s property market between the early 1980’s up to mid-1997. Eight years after the collapse of the property boom, the local property market is still some 40% off its record high, although certain Quam Money P.5 luxury properties have surpassed their record highs made in 1996-7; recently, I heard that local actor Steven Chow Sing- chi has sold a house at the Peak for a price some 30% higher than his original purchase price made in late 1996. No one will disagree that the last property secular bull market ended in August 1997 and that the bull market lasted for some 13-14 years. If investors manage to identify these mega trends early, then they can get rich very easily, provided that they can resist the temptations of taking profit too early. If we can still remember, during the 1983-1997 property bull market, property owners sailed through the 1987 Wall Street-led global stock market crash, the 1989 June Fourth Incident, and the property market stabilizing measures in 1995, which led to temporary setbacks in the local property market. The bull market only came to an end in 1997 when everyone thought that trading properties was the easiest way to get rich. It was also a time that even though everyone was complaining that property prices had reached a level that was unaffordable by most Hong Kong citizens, potential homeowners were still rushing into the market for fear that they might need to pay even higher prices if they did not get on the train early. I have a well educated friend who unfortunately got trapped at the top of the 1997 property bubble because he needed to get married. By that time, I don’t think he had ever seriously thought of the alternative to rent a flat. Learn from Mistakes After all, we human beings are bound to make mistakes. The only difference between smart and really dumb people is that the former learn from their mistakes. My friend still got a good job. After that incident he became a smarter investor who has done pretty well in the stock market. To Hongkongers, the years between 1997 and 2003 were years of deflation, i.e. a time when asset prices were deflating. Up to the end of 2004, many of us were behaving as if we were in the middle of a prolonged deflationary phase despite the fact that the age of deflation had ended in the second half of 2004. P.6 2005?9? In a period of deflation, an investor needs to pay down their debts, cut unnecessary expenses, and invest in quality stocks that pay good dividends or with companies that may benefit from falling rents, salaries and raw material prices while remaining unaffected by the economic depression (e.g. export-oriented manufacturers, trading firms, fast-food chains and retailers that sell daily necessities). Investors did not notice that the era of deflation was over and that they should prepare for an inflationary phase, which is a period where one should act quite the contrary -- buy companies that may benefit from asset inflation, try to leverage up for mortgages, and avoid companies that may get hurt by rising rents, salaries and raw material prices. How to Identify a Mega Trend? ‘’Oh well, that was all history. How can I identify a mega trend now?’’ some readers may ask. The simplest answer to this excellent question is ‘’when everyone else is saying that it is the death of something, it may mark the birth of a mega trend of that thing.’’ Take the property market as an example. You can easily find that renting a flat is again prevalent here in Hong Kong, especially for the newer generations who have not experienced the pain of ever-rising rents. Since early 2003, every time the property market rose, certain media outlets would describe it as a dead cat rebound; even after the pickup of the property market, we still hear someone say that the market is going to collapse because Hongkongers’ salaries are still lagging way behind property prices. Naysayers would argue that rents are still not rising at a similar pace when compared to property prices, and our population is ageing. Don’t they know that these are all useless lagging indicators? Salaries and rents will only pick up long after the pick-up in the property (and stock) market, because consumer confidence takes time to rebound after a seven-year long recession. Along with Hong Kong’s property market, we believe that the property market in the PRC is also undergoing a secular bull market, as is the PRC economy. We remain a bit uncomfortable about recommending commodities and related stocks at the current price. However, if we believe that the PRC economy is going to grow at a rate of around 8% in the coming decade, then Jim Rogers is probably right that the commodities boom may also last for more than a decade, especially now since it seems that not many people are hot about commodities trading at the moment. The Wisdom to Distinguish Noise from the Real Trend I still remember when a relative of mine was an active bullion trader by the early 1980’s. It was a time when gold prices started to deflate, but without noticing that the game was over, my relative was still fond of bullion trading. ‘’After falling more than 50% from a peak of US$800 per ounce, gold must be cheap,’’ she said to another relative. At that time, I was only a little child who knew nothing about investing or speculating. I did not know whether my relative managed to get out at US$500, or stuck at her entry price at around US$400 for more than 20 years until she recently managed to get out at the breakeven point. Up to this moment, I hear about one of my many relatives who has just started to get in the habit of trading bullion. Is he one of the few early birds or is he just another lonely trader who will never be echoed by the majority of the flock? If you manage to get the right answer, you will surely get rich quickly and will definitely have an early retirement in this mega trend. If you don’t dare to trade commodities, then buy stocks that may benefit from the PRC economic boom should also help. Market leaders in the banking, financial, property, basic daily necessities (such as toll roads, electricity and ports operations), and consumer products with strong brand loyalty (is there any?) are the ones that should be invested in first. When you invest, you will hear one or more of the following: ‘’Don’t you know that Chinese government officials are corrupt, China lacks natural resources, China lacks competitiveness in high-tech industry, and China is economically and politically backward, and the Chinese economy is going to collapse?’’ These are what we call noises in a mega trend. From time to time, you will face one or other challenges that may test your self- confidence, patience and determination. You may make some mistakes in the course to early retirement, but as long as these mistakes are not fatal, you should not let your emotions blind your judgment. Get back on the right track and move on. Good luck to all of you. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? www.quamnet.com??????? Check ou t www.quamnet .com QuamResearch for independent HK equity research reports.