中国酒精饮料工业

China - Spirits 0099 - 0801 - 2012 © MARKETLINE THIS PROFILE IS A LICENSED PRODUCT AND IS NOT TO BE PHOTOCOPIED Page | 1 MarketLine Industry Profile Spirits in China October 2013 Reference Code: 0099-0801 Publication Date: October 2013 WWW.MARKETLINE.COM MARKETLINE. THIS PROFILE IS A LICENSED PRODUCT AND IS NOT TO BE PHOTOCOPIED China - Spirits 0099 - 0801 - 2012 © MARKETLINE THIS PROFILE IS A LICENSED PRODUCT AND IS NOT TO BE PHOTOCOPIED Page | 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Market value The Chinese spirits market grew by 3.1% in 2012 to reach a value of $47 billion. Market value forecast In 2017, the Chinese spirits market is forecast to have a value of $55.3 billion, an increase of 17.7% since 2012. Market volume The Chinese spirits market grew by 1.2% in 2012 to reach a volume of 10,383 million liters. Market volume forecast In 2017, the Chinese spirits market is forecast to have a volume of 10,849.8 million liters, an increase of 4.5% since 2012. Category segmentation Specialty spirits is the largest segment of the spirits market in China, accounting for 87.5% of the market's total value. Geography segmentation China accounts for 45.3% of the Asia-Pacific spirits market value. Market share Kweichow Moutai Co. Ltd is the leading player in the Chinese spirits market, generating a 1.4% share of the market's volume. Market rivalry The Chinese spirits market is very fragmented, with the top three players holding only 1.8% of the total market volume . China - Spirits 0099 - 0801 - 2012 © MARKETLINE THIS PROFILE IS A LICENSED PRODUCT AND IS NOT TO BE PHOTOCOPIED Page | 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary..........................................................................................................................................................................2 Market value ..................................................................................................................................................................................2 Market value forecast...................................................................................................................................................................2 Market volume...............................................................................................................................................................................2 Market volume forecast ...............................................................................................................................................................2 Category segmentation................................................................................................................................................................2 Geography segmentation ............................................................................................................................................................2 Market share..................................................................................................................................................................................2 Market rivalry .................................................................................................................................................................................2 Market Overview ...............................................................................................................................................................................7 Market definition............................................................................................................................................................................7 Market analysis .............................................................................................................................................................................7 Market Data........................................................................................................................................................................................8 Market value ..................................................................................................................................................................................8 Market volume...............................................................................................................................................................................9 Market Segmentation .....................................................................................................................................................................10 Category segmentation..............................................................................................................................................................10 Geography segmentation ..........................................................................................................................................................11 Market share................................................................................................................................................................................12 Market distribution ......................................................................................................................................................................13 Market Outlook ................................................................................................................................................................................14 Market value forecast.................................................................................................................................................................14 Market volume forecast .............................................................................................................................................................15 Five Forces Analysis ......................................................................................................................................................................16 Summary ......................................................................................................................................................................................16 Buyer power.................................................................................................................................................................................17 Supplier power ............................................................................................................................................................................18 New entrants ...............................................................................................................................................................................19 Threat of substitutes...................................................................................................................................................................20 Degree of rivalry..........................................................................................................................................................................21 Leading Companies........................................................................................................................................................................22 China - Spirits 0099 - 0801 - 2012 © MARKETLINE THIS PROFILE IS A LICENSED PRODUCT AND IS NOT TO BE PHOTOCOPIED Page | 4 Pernod Ricard .............................................................................................................................................................................22 LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA ................................................................................................................................25 Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Company Limited .................................................................................................................29 Kweichow Moutai ........................................................................................................................................................................30 Macroeconomic Indicators.............................................................................................................................................................31 Country Data ...............................................................................................................................................................................31 Appendix...........................................................................................................................................................................................33 Methodology ................................................................................................................................................................................33 Industry associations..................................................................................................................................................................34 Related MarketLine research....................................................................................................................................................34 China - Spirits 0099 - 0801 - 2012 © MARKETLINE THIS PROFILE IS A LICENSED PRODUCT AND IS NOT TO BE PHOTOCOPIED Page | 5 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: China spirits market value: $ billion, 2008–12 ..............................................................................................................8 Table 2: China spirits market volume: million liters, 2008–12 ...................................................................................................9 Table 3: China spirits market category segmentation: $ billion, 2012 ....................................................................................10 Table 4: China spirits market geography segmentation: $ billion, 2012 ................................................................................11 Table 5: China spirits market share: % share, by volume, 2012.............................................................................................12 Table 6: China spirits market distribution: % share, by volume, 2012 ...................................................................................13 Table 7: China spirits market value forecast: $ billion, 2012–17.............................................................................................14 Table 8: China spirits market volume forecast: million liters, 2012–17 ..................................................................................15 Table 9: Pernod Ricard: key facts ................................................................................................................................................22 Table 10: Pernod Ricard: key financials ($)................................................................................................................................23 Table 11: Pernod Ricard: key financials (€)................................................................................................................................23 Table 12: Pernod Ricard: key financial ratios.............................................................................................................................23 Table 13: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA: key facts .................................................................................................25 Table 14: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA: key financials ($)...................................................................................26 Table 15: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA: key financials (€)...................................................................................27 Table 16: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA: key financial ratios................................................................................27 Table 17: Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Company Limited: key facts ..................................................................................29 Table 18: Kweichow Moutai: key facts ........................................................................................................................................30 Table 19: China size of population (million), 2008–12 ..............................................................................................................31 Table 20: China gdp (constant 2000 prices, $ billion), 2008–12 .............................................................................................31 Table 21: China gdp (current prices, $ billion), 2008–12..........................................................................................................31 Table 22: China inflation, 2008–12 ..............................................................................................................................................32 Table 23: China consumer price index (absolute), 2008–12 ...................................................................................................32 Table 24: China exchange rate, 2008–12...................................................................................................................................32 China - Spirits 0099 - 0801 - 2012 © MARKETLINE THIS PROFILE IS A LICENSED PRODUCT AND IS NOT TO BE PHOTOCOPIED Page | 6 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: China spirits market value: $ billion, 2008–12.............................................................................................................8 Figure 2: China spirits market volume: million liters, 2008–12 ..................................................................................................9 Figure 3: China spirits market category segmentation: % share, by value, 2012 ................................................................10 Figure 4: China spirits market geography segmentation: % share, by value, 2012.............................................................11 Figure 5: China spirits market share: % share, by volume, 2012 ...........................................................................................12 Figure 6: China spirits market distribution: % share, by volume, 2012 ..................................................................................13 Figure 7: China spirits market value forecast: $ billion, 2012–17 ...........................................................................................14 Figure 8: China spirits market volume forecast: million liters, 2012–17.................................................................................15 Figure 9: Forces driving competition in the spirits market in China, 2012 .............................................................................16 Figure 10: Drivers of buyer power in the spirits market in China, 2012 .................................................................................17 Figure 11: Drivers of supplier power in the spirits market in China, 2012 .............................................................................18 Figure 12: Factors influencing the likelihood of new entrants in the spirits market in China, 2012 ...................................19 Figure 13: Factors influencing the threat of substitutes in the spirits market in China, 2012 .............................................20 Figure 14: Drivers of degree of rivalry in the spirits market in China, 2012...........................................................................21 Figure 15: Pernod Ricard: revenues & profitability ....................................................................................................................24 Figure 16: Pernod Ricard: assets & liabilities.............................................................................................................................24 Figure 17: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA: revenues & profitability.......................................................................27 Figure 18: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA: assets & liabilities................................................................................28 China - Spirits 0099 - 0801 - 2012 © MARKETLINE THIS PROFILE IS A LICENSED PRODUCT AND IS NOT TO BE PHOTOCOPIED Page | 7 MARKET OVERVIEW Market definition The spirits market consists of the sale of brandy, liqueurs, rum, specialty spirits, vodka, whisky and other (Tequila & Mezcal and Gin & Genever). The market is valued according to retail selling price (RSP) and includes any applicable taxes. Any currency conversions used in the creation of this report have been calculated using constant 2012 annual average exchange rates. For the purposes of this report, Asia-Pacific comprises Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. Market analysis The Chinese spirits market has been growing steadily over last few years. The market is predicted to keep this momentum in the forthcoming years, albeit at a decelerated rate. The Chinese spirits market had total revenues of $47,014.4m in 2012, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% between 2008 and 2012. In comparison, the Japanese market declined with a compound annual rate of change (CARC) of -0.3%, and the Indian market increased with a CAGR of 16.1%, over the same period, to reach respective values of $12,251.3m and $21,568.6m in 2012. Market consumption volumes increased with a CAGR of 2.4% between 2008-2012, to reach a total of 10,383 million liters in 2012. The market's volume is expected to rise to 10,849.8 million liters by the end o f 2017, representing a CAGR of 0.9% for the 2012-2017 period. Supermarkets/hypermarkets accounted for the largest proportion of volume in the Chinese spirits market in 2012. The volume sold through this channel accounted for 4,103.4 million liters, equivalent to 39.5% of the market's overall volume. Sales through the on-trade channel totaled 2,944.6 million liters in 2012, equating to 28.4% of the total market's volume. The performance of the market is forecast to decelerate, with an anticipated CAGR of 3.3% for the five-year period 2012 - 2017, which is expected to drive the market to a value of $55,306.0m by the end of 2017. Comparatively, the Japanese market will decline with a CARC of -0.2%, and the Indian market will increase with a CAGR of 10.7%, over the same period, to reach respective values of $12,148.2m and $35,896.1m in 2017. China - Spirits 0099 - 0801 - 2012 © MARKETLINE THIS PROFILE IS A LICENSED PRODUCT AND IS NOT TO BE PHOTOCOPIED Page | 8 MARKET DATA Market value The Chinese spirits market grew by 3.1% in 2012 to reach a value of $47 billion. The compound annual growth rate of the market in the period 2008–12 was 4.2%. Table 1: China spirits market value: $ billion, 2008–12 Year $ billion CNY billion € billion % Growth 2008 39.8 251.4 31.0 2009 41.6 262.8 32.4 4.5% 2010 43.7 275.5 34.0 4.8% 2011 45.6 287.8 35.5 4.5% 2012 47.0 296.7 36.6 3.1% CAGR: 2008–12 4.2% SOURCE: MARKETLINE M A R K E T L I N E Figure 1: China spirits market value: $ billion, 2008–12 SOURCE: MARKETLINE M A R K E T L I N E China - Spirits 0099 - 0801 - 2012 © MARKETLINE THIS PROFILE IS A LICENSED PRODUCT AND IS NOT TO BE PHOTOCOPIED Page | 9 Market volume T