预测下年度房地产市场变化趋势

预测下年度房地产市场变化趋势 课 程 设 计 目: 2013年武汉市房地产市场调查分析 姓 名:李春城 学 院:土建学院 专 业:管理 学 号:110602114 指导教师: 朱明强 2014年12月10日 the 20 cases liver within hematoma, liver Schistosoma disease, (liver package insect disease) the 2 cases gallbladder stone, bile duct stone, urgent chronic cholecystitis, gallbladder cancer, gallbladder hyperplasia sex disease the 20 cases bile duct cancer, congenital bile duct SAC-like expansion syndrome, (biliary Ascaris disease) the 2 cases urgent, and chronic pancreatic inflammatory, pancreatic cancer the 10 cases pancreatic Island cell tumor, Pancreatic transfer tumor the 2 cases spleen enlargement, 5 cases spleen congenital exception (deficiency as, more spleen syndrome), spleen cyst, spleen lymphatic tumor, spleen vascular tumor, spleen transfer tumor the 2 cases urinary system kidney water, kidney cyst, kidney cancer, kidney stones, nephritis the 20 cases kidney congenital development exception (different bit kidney, and fusion kidney, and kidney deficiency as), kidney sagging, walk kidney, kidney week abscess, kidney TB, kidney function failure, (transplant kidney and complications) the 2 cases ureteral stone, Ureteral water, Ureteral tumor, pelvis cancer the 10 cases the 2 cases ureteral narrow, Ureteral cyst, bladder resting room the 2 cases bladder tumor, bladder stone the 20 cases obstetric and reproductive system normal early pregnancy, and in the pregnancy, and late pregnancy, exception pregnancy (various abortion, and different bit pregnancy, and more tire pregnancy, and expired pregnancy, and fetal growth hysteresis, and fetal deformity, and amniotic fluid too much, and amniotic fluid too little, and Qian reset placenta, and placenta early stripping, and implanted sex placenta), nourish leaves lesions (grape tire, malignant grape tire, and chorionic cancer) the 20 cases the 3 cases congenital uterine deformity, uterine muscle tumor, uterine gland tumor, uterine gland muscle syndrom 目 录 一、武汉市国民经济和社会发展统计公报公布各年统计数据 „„„„„„„„„„„3 2009年武汉市国民经济和社会发展统计公报公布 „„„„„„„„„„„„3 2010年武汉市国民经济和社会发展统计公报公布 „„„„„„„„„„„„3 2011年武汉市国民经济和社会发展统计公报公布 „„„„„„„„„„„„3 2012年武汉市国民经济和社会发展统计公报公布 „„„„„„„„„„„„3 2013年武汉市国民经济和社会发展统计公报公布 „„„„„„„„„„„„4 二、现状分析 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„4 三、武汉市房地产市场现状及分析 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„4 市场供给情况分析 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„4 市场需求情况分析 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„5 市场竞争状况分析 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„6 四、本年度房地产市场出现的特点及成因„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„„7 主城区多个项目房价年末较年初上调上千 „„„„„„„„„„„„„7 远城区房价涨幅平均达到18.74% „„„„„„„„„„„„„7 环线概念再度被提及各环线间成交价格差距开始扩大 „„„„„„„„„7 热销楼盘均主打90平米左右三房 „„„„„„„„„„„„„8 120平米以上产品去库存压力变大 „„„„„„„„„„„„„8 武汉楼市整体去化周期有一定增长 „„„„„„„„„„„„„8 写字楼和商业物业供应有所减少 „„„„„„„„„„„„„9 2013年商品住宅分户型供应结构变化不大 „„„„„„„„„„„„„9 五、2014年武汉房地产市场预测与展望 „„„„„„„„„„„„„10 2014年房产政策的主调仍是“控房价” „„„„„„„„„„„„„10 人口红利持续 住宅市场需求依然较大 „„„„„„„„„„„„„10 二环内旧城改造提速 购房者或转向二环以外 „„„„„„„„„„„„„10 房价整体上行 涨幅或将先扬后抑 „„„„„„„„„„„„„10 六、参考文献 „„„„„„„„„„„„„„„10 the 20 cases liver within hematoma, liver Schistosoma disease, (liver package insect disease) the 2 cases gallbladder stone, bile duct stone, urgent chronic cholecystitis, gallbladder cancer, gallbladder hyperplasia sex disease the 20 cases bile duct cancer, congenital bile duct SAC-like expansion syndrome, (biliary Ascaris disease) the 2 cases urgent, and chronic pancreatic inflammatory, pancreatic cancer the 10 cases pancreatic Island cell tumor, Pancreatic transfer tumor the 2 cases spleen enlargement, 5 cases spleen congenital exception (deficiency as, more spleen syndrome), spleen cyst, spleen lymphatic tumor, spleen vascular tumor, spleen transfer tumor the 2 cases urinary system kidney water, kidney cyst, kidney cancer, kidney stones, nephritis the 20 cases kidney congenital development exception (different bit kidney, and fusion kidney, and kidney deficiency as), kidney sagging, walk kidney, kidney week abscess, kidney TB, kidney function failure, (transplant kidney and complications) the 2 cases ureteral stone, Ureteral water, Ureteral tumor, pelvis cancer the 10 cases the 2 cases ureteral narrow, Ureteral cyst, bladder resting room the 2 cases bladder tumor, bladder stone the 20 cases obstetric and reproductive system normal early pregnancy, and in the pregnancy, and late pregnancy, exception pregnancy (various abortion, and different bit pregnancy, and more tire pregnancy, and expired pregnancy, and fetal growth hysteresis, and fetal deformity, and amniotic fluid too much, and amniotic fluid too little, and Qian reset placenta, and placenta early stripping, and implanted sex placenta), nourish leaves lesions (grape tire, malignant grape tire, and chorionic cancer) the 20 cases the 3 cases congenital uterine deformity, uterine muscle tumor, uterine gland tumor, uterine gland muscle syndrom 武汉市国民经济和社会发展统计公报公布各年统计数据 2009年武汉市国民经济和社会发展统计公报公布 初步核算，全年地区生产总值4560.62亿元，比上年增长13.7%。其中，第一产业增加值149.06亿元，增长1.6%;第二产业增加值2142.14亿元，增长16.0%;第三产业增加值2269.42亿元，增长12.5%。一、二、三产业比重3.2:47.0:49.8，与上年相比:一产业降0.5个百分点，二产业上升0.9个百分点，三产业下降0.4个百分点。 年末全市常住人口910万人，比上年末增加13万人。户籍人口835.55万人，增加2.31万人，人口自然增长率3.78?,上升1.32个千分点。人口净迁移率0.71?，下降1.37个千分点。生育率97.93%，下降0.32个百分点。 全年城市居民人均可支配收入18385.02元，比上年增长10.0%;人均消费支出12710.29元，增长11.2%;全年农民人均纯收入7161元，比上年增长12.8%。人均消费支出4901元，增长3.1%。 (武汉市统计局) 2010年武汉市国民经济和社会发展统计公报公布 初步核算，全年地区生产总值5515.76亿元，比上年增长14.7%。其中，第一产业增加值170.04亿元，增长4.5%;第二产业增加值2532.82亿元，增长17.8%;第三产业增加值2812.90亿元，增长12.5%。一、二、三产业比重3.1:45.9:51.0，与上年相比，一产业下降0.1个百分点，二产业下降0.5个百分点，三产业上升0.6个百分点。 年末全市户籍人口836.73万人，增加1.18万人。人口自然增长率1.59?。人口净迁移率-3.19?，计划生育率96.96%，下降0.97个百分点。 全年城市居民人均可支配收入20806.32元，比上年增长13.2%;人均消费支出14490.07元，增长14.0%;全年农民人均纯收入8294.81元，比上年增长15.8%。人均消费支出5630.98元，增长14.9%。(武汉市统计局) 2011年武汉市国民经济和社会发展统计公报公布 初步核算，全年地区生产总值6756.20亿元，比上年增长12.5%。其中，第一产业增加值198.70亿元，增长4.0%;第二产业增加值3254.02亿元，增长16.4%;第三产业增加值3303.48亿元，增长9.6%。一、二、三产业比重2.9:48.2:48.9，与上年相比，第一产业下降0.2个百分点，第二产业上升2.7个百分点，第三产业下降2.5个百分点。 年末全市常住人口1002万人，比上年末增加22.46万人。户籍人口827.24万人，减少9.49万人。人口自然增长率2.07?,人口净迁移率-5.93?，计划生育率95.71%，下降1.25个百分点。 全年城市居民人均可支配收入23738.09元，比上年增长14.1%;人均消费支出17140.96 元，增长18.3%;全年农民人均纯收入9813.59元，比上年增长18.3%。人均消费支出7102.70元，增长26.1%。(长江日报) 2012年武汉市国民经济和社会发展统计公报公布 初步核算，全年地区生产总值8003.82亿元，按可比价格计算，比上年增长11.4%。其中，第一产业增加值301.21亿元，增长4.5%;第二产业增加值3869.56亿元，增长13.2%;第三产业增加值3833.05亿元，增长10.0%。一、二、三产业比重3.8:48.3:47.9，与上年相比，第一产业上升0.8个百分点，第二产业上升0.2个百分点，第三产业下降1.0个百分点。 the 20 cases liver within hematoma, liver Schistosoma disease, (liver package insect disease) the 2 cases gallbladder stone, bi3 le duct stone, urgent chronic cholecystitis, gallbladder cancer, gallbladder hyperplasia sex disease the 20 cases bile duct cancer, congenital bile duct SAC-like expansion syndrome, (biliary Ascaris disease) the 2 cases urgent, and chronic pancreatic inflammatory, pancreatic cancer the 10 cases pancreatic Island cell tumor, Pancreatic transfer tumor the 2 cases spleen enlargement, 5 cases spleen congenital exception (deficiency as, more spleen syndrome), spleen cyst, spleen lymphatic tumor, spleen vascular tumor, spleen transfer tumor the 2 cases urinary system kidney water, kidney cyst, kidney cancer, kidney stones, nephritis the 20 cases kidney congenital development exception (different bit kidney, and fusion kidney, and kidney deficiency as), kidney sagging, walk kidney, kidney week abscess, kidney TB, kidney function failure, (transplant kidney and complications) the 2 cases ureteral stone, Ureteral water, Ureteral tumor, pelvis cancer the 10 cases the 2 cases ureteral narrow, Ureteral cyst, bladder resting room the 2 cases bladder tumor, bladder stone the 20 cases obstetric and reproductive system normal early pregnancy, and in the pregnancy, and late pregnancy, exception pregnancy (various abortion, and different bit pregnancy, and more tire pregnancy, and expired pregnancy, and fetal growth hysteresis, and fetal deformity, and amniotic fluid too much, and amniotic fluid too little, and Qian reset placenta, and placenta early stripping, and implanted sex placenta), nourish leaves lesions (grape tire, malignant grape tire, and chorionic cancer) the 20 cases the 3 cases congenital uterine deformity, uterine muscle tumor, uterine gland tumor, uterine gland muscle syndrom 年末常住人口1012万人，比上年增加10万人。户籍人口821.71万人，减少5.52万人。人口自然增长率5.18?,其中，人口出生率10.72?，人口死亡率5.54?。人口净迁移率-4.58?。 全年城市居民人均可支配收入27061元，比上年增长14.0%。人均消费支出18813.14元，增长9.8%。全年农村居民人均纯收入11190.44元，比上年增长14.0%。人均消费支出8166.70元，增长15.0%。(长江日报) 2013年武汉市国民经济和社会发展统计公报公布 初步核算，全年地区生产总值9051.27亿元，按可比价格计算，比上年增长10.0%。其中，第一产业增加值335.40亿元，增长4.5%;第二产业增加值4396.17亿元，增长10.3%;第三产业增加值4319.70 亿元，增长10.0%。一、二、三产业比重由上年的3.8:48.3:47.9调整为3.7:48.6:47.7。 年末常住人口1022万人，比上年增加10万人。户籍人口822.05万人，增加0.34万人。人口自然增长率6.30?,其中，人口出生率11.28?，人口死亡率4.98?。人口净迁移率-3.06?。 全年城市居民人均可支配收入29821.22元，比上年增长10.2%。人均消费支出20157.32元，增长7.1%。全年农村居民人均纯收入12713.46元，比上年增长13.6%。人均消费支出9127.00元，增长11.8%。(长江日报) 现状分析 武汉作为中部地区的主要城市之一，这几年来经济发展较好，其中第二、三产业占主导地位，第二产业的比重越来越大，第三产业总体呈下降趋势。虽然武汉市这几年的GDP一直在保持着快速增长的态势，但其中有很大的一部分是占建筑行业这一块，当前情形下房地产业又占了建筑业的大部分。从各年地区生产总值及其增长速度统计情况来看，政府已经着手于经济转型以期解决过分依赖第三产业(主要是土地)的现状。 常住人口及居民(农民)人均可支配收入和人均消费支出逐年递增，显示出了武汉作为中部地区的主要城市之一对人们的吸引力和长期居住该地的人们优越的生活现状，武汉正迈步朝着一线城市的阵营走进。 武汉市房地产市场现状及分析 (1)市场供给情况分析 1. 2013年，全市供应总计推出258宗，土地规模1353.73万平方米，较上年下降35.8%，较2011年上升13.0%。从成交来看，土地实际成交220宗，成交量1135.11万平方米，较上年下降24.5%;土地有效供应率为83.9%，较上年上升了12.5个百分点，结束了连续三年的下滑。 土地市场热度增加，流拍、撤销、延期现象大大减少。作为近年来武汉重要供地来源，城中村地块大幅减少直接导致全市供地规模大幅下滑。 the 20 cases liver within hematoma, liver Schistosoma disease, (liver package insect disease) the 2 cases gallbladder stone, bile duct stone, urgent chronic cholecystitis, gallbladder cancer, gallbladder hyperplasia sex disease the 20 cases bile duct cancer, congenital bile duct SAC-like expansion syndrome, (biliary Ascaris disease) the 2 cases urgent, and chronic pancreatic inflammatory, pancreatic cancer the 10 cases pancreatic Island cell tumor, Pancreatic transfer tumor the 2 cases spleen enlargement, 5 cases spleen congenital exception (deficiency as, more spleen syndrome), spleen cyst, spleen lymphatic tumor, spleen vascular tumor, spleen transfer tumor the 2 cases urinary system kidney water, kidney cyst, kidney cancer, kidney stones, nephritis the 20 cases kidney congenital development exception (different bit kidney, and fusion kidney, and kidney deficiency as), kidney sagging, walk kidney, kidney week abscess, kidney TB, kidney function failure, (transplant kidney and complications) the 2 cases ureteral stone, Ureteral water, Ureteral tumor, pelvis cancer the 10 cases the 2 cases ureteral narrow, Ureteral cyst, bladder resting room the 2 cases bladder tumor, bladder stone the 20 cases obstetric and reproductive system normal early pregnancy, and in the pregnancy, and late pregnancy, exception pregnancy (various abortion, and different bit pregnancy, and more tire pregnancy, and expired pregnancy, and fetal growth hysteresis, and fetal deformity, and amniotic fluid too much, and amniotic fluid too little, and Qian reset placenta, and placenta early stripping, and implanted sex placenta), nourish leaves lesions (grape tire, malignant grape tire, and chorionic cancer) the 20 cases the 3 cases congenital uterine deformity, uterine muscle tumor, uterine gland tumor, uterine gland muscle syndrom 2. 2013年楼面地价同比增长13.7%，武汉市获得土地出让金683.38亿元，综合地价水平为2109.04元/平方米，每亩单价402.86万元/亩，分别较上年增长-23.6%、13.7%、1.3%;对比2012年，2013年土地溢价指标全面上升。其中，溢价成交地块数量较上年增加25宗，溢价地块占总成交量的比例上升13.1个百分点，地块平均溢价率较上年提高9.8个百分点。 2013 685.94 2109.04 402.86 同比增长 -23.6% 13.7% 1.3% 开发商竞价行为更为频繁，购置土地意愿表现强烈。 3、 2013年前三季度，武汉市房屋面积7608.00万平方米，增长21.5%。本年新 开工面积1885.39万平方米，增长12.6%，分别加快6.2和13个百分 点。 施工面积逐年快速增长使商品房库存攀升高企，房地产开发目前正处于去库存时期，新开工面积出现回落滞涨，说明开发商面临资金和市场去化双重压力。商品住宅供应的主要增长点在以江夏区、黄陂区为主的远城区，供应占比较去年扩大4.22个百分点。远城区供应量的增加，很大程度上与市政的交通规划利好有关。 (2)市场需求情况分析 1. 购房者对房源类型选择:毛坯房仍是需求主力，精装房认可度提高。 购房者对精装修房的认可度逐渐提高，与此对应的是，市场上精装房的供应和成交规模逐步增加、万科、恒大、保利等品牌开发商精装房受欢迎度提高。 the 20 cases liver within hematoma, liver Schistosoma disease, (liver package insect disease) the 2 cases gallbladder stone, bi5 le duct stone, urgent chronic cholecystitis, gallbladder cancer, gallbladder hyperplasia sex disease the 20 cases bile duct cancer, congenital bile duct SAC-like expansion syndrome, (biliary Ascaris disease) the 2 cases urgent, and chronic pancreatic inflammatory, pancreatic cancer the 10 cases pancreatic Island cell tumor, Pancreatic transfer tumor the 2 cases spleen enlargement, 5 cases spleen congenital exception (deficiency as, more spleen syndrome), spleen cyst, spleen lymphatic tumor, spleen vascular tumor, spleen transfer tumor the 2 cases urinary system kidney water, kidney cyst, kidney cancer, kidney stones, nephritis the 20 cases kidney congenital development exception (different bit kidney, and fusion kidney, and kidney deficiency as), kidney sagging, walk kidney, kidney week abscess, kidney TB, kidney function failure, (transplant kidney and complications) the 2 cases ureteral stone, Ureteral water, Ureteral tumor, pelvis cancer the 10 cases the 2 cases ureteral narrow, Ureteral cyst, bladder resting room the 2 cases bladder tumor, bladder stone the 20 cases obstetric and reproductive system normal early pregnancy, and in the pregnancy, and late pregnancy, exception pregnancy (various abortion, and different bit pregnancy, and more tire pregnancy, and expired pregnancy, and fetal growth hysteresis, and fetal deformity, and amniotic fluid too much, and amniotic fluid too little, and Qian reset placenta, and placenta early stripping, and implanted sex placenta), nourish leaves lesions (grape tire, malignant grape tire, and chorionic cancer) the 20 cases the 3 cases congenital uterine deformity, uterine muscle tumor, uterine gland tumor, uterine gland muscle syndrom 2、购房者购房目的:以刚需和改善型需求为主，投资型需求进一步下降。 2013年以来武汉住宅需求结构发生较大变化，市场 需求由限购前的多元化到限购后的刚需为主，又转变为刚需、改善、投资型需求共 存的格局。经历限购两年后，随着武汉房价的不断上涨，被限购压制两年的改善型 尤其是刚改型购房者大量入市，成为市场需求的主力之一。 3、购房者付款方式:按揭仍是购房主要资金来源，公积金使用明显增加。 选择按揭贷款比例高居不下，一方面是市场主力购房群体的高学历和年龄特征决定了其金融观念更容易接受按揭。另一方面是改善型需求和“一步到位”刚需需求对购房面积、户型等要求的提高，导致对高总价的承受更依赖于按揭贷款，而武汉公积金政策的放宽和相对低利率也使得购房者更多的使用公积金。此外，购房群体按揭比例的高企，也表明在一定程度上购房者的购房决策和行为更多的受政府调控政策尤其是信贷政策的影响和制约。 4、购房者的政策敏感度依然较高 购房决策受政策影响较大，购房者对政策影响的担 心主要体现在房价的变化和信贷政策的变化。 由于主力购房者对信贷的依赖度，对信贷等政策的变化最为敏感，其次是购房资格和条件的变化也对购房者尤其是外地购房者的购房行为和决策产生影响。 (3)市场竞争状况分析 从今年的销售榜单来看，龙头房企增长势头更为凶猛，保利集团旗下的武汉保利全年累计销售额高达80亿以上，市场份额超过了7%，万科、福星惠誉的市场份额约在3.5%左右，万达、碧桂园、复地集团等知名房企也的市场份额大多3%左右，销售金额排名前十的房企的总市场份额达34.22%，前二十的房企占据了市场份额的半壁江山。而在去年，武汉保利的市场占有率在5%左右，排名前十的房企的总市场份额在31%左右，前二十的市场份额约占44%。 the 20 cases liver within hematoma, liver Schistosoma disease, (liver package insect disease) the 2 cases gallbladder stone, bile duct stone, urgent chronic cholecystitis, gallbladder cancer, gallbladder hyperplasia sex disease the 20 cases bile duct cancer, congenital bile duct SAC-like expansion syndrome, (biliary Ascaris disease) the 2 cases urgent, and chronic pancreatic inflammatory, pancreatic cancer the 10 cases pancreatic Island cell tumor, Pancreatic transfer tumor the 2 cases spleen enlargement, 5 cases spleen congenital exception (deficiency as, more spleen syndrome), spleen cyst, spleen lymphatic tumor, spleen vascular tumor, spleen transfer tumor the 2 cases urinary system kidney water, kidney cyst, kidney cancer, kidney stones, nephritis the 20 cases kidney congenital development exception (different bit kidney, and fusion kidney, and kidney deficiency as), kidney sagging, walk kidney, kidney week abscess, kidney TB, kidney function failure, (transplant kidney and complications) the 2 cases ureteral stone, Ureteral water, Ureteral tumor, pelvis cancer the 10 cases the 2 cases ureteral narrow, Ureteral cyst, bladder resting room the 2 cases bladder tumor, bladder stone the 20 cases obstetric and reproductive system normal early pregnancy, and in the pregnancy, and late pregnancy, exception pregnancy (various abortion, and different bit pregnancy, and more tire pregnancy, and expired pregnancy, and fetal growth hysteresis, and fetal deformity, and amniotic fluid too much, and amniotic fluid too little, and Qian reset placenta, and placenta early stripping, and implanted sex placenta), nourish leaves lesions (grape tire, malignant grape tire, and chorionic cancer) the 20 cases the 3 cases congenital uterine deformity, uterine muscle tumor, uterine gland tumor, uterine gland muscle syndrom 今年楼市是“品牌年”，大牌开发商项目销售火爆，不少开发商因此进入拿地补库存阶段，如万科，福星惠誉 、复地、佳兆业、碧桂园等。与之相对的，中小型开发商目前大多仍在以去库存为主，其中甚至有体量在千套以上，销售长达一年却仅售出百余套的项目，总体依然形势严峻。 本年度房地产市场出现的特点及成因 1、主城区多个项目房价年末较年初上调上千 尤其是在今年楼市行情较好的情况下，中心城区的项目大多对售价做出了明显地上调，如汉口中心区的越秀星汇云锦年末报价比年初上调了1300元/平方米，中御公馆价格年末较年初上调3000元/平方米，泛海国际居住区悦海园年末保教较年初上调1500元/平方米，中北路沿线的复地东湖国际年末报价高出年初2000元/平方米。万元以上楼盘销售的增加，以及价格的大幅上调，是武汉楼市房价出现快速上涨的主要因素。 另外，昔日的房价洼地区域，今年的补涨迹象也较为明显，以二七后湖片为例，多数热销楼盘年末房价已较年初普涨过千元每平，如万锦江城，3月份曾低至8000元/平方米，如今则高达9600元/平方米，幸福时代由8100元/平方米上调至9600元/平方米，星悦城由7600元/平方米调至8900元/平方米，汉口城市广场由8750元/平方米涨至9700元/平方米。关山片从4月份的金地雄楚1号开盘后，9000元/平方米以上项目纷纷入市，片区房价也因此补涨明显。南湖片全年成交均价虽然较为平稳，但作为其片区洼地的白沙洲区域价格上调也十分明显，佳兆业金域天下由年初的6300元/平方米涨至目前的7400元/平方米，价格上调1100元/平方米;汉阳中心区尽管因今年四新板块成交大热，全年房价出现下滑，但就四新这个房价洼地而言，年末报价也较年初补涨千元每平，观澜国际年末较年初价格上调1000元/平方米，金地澜菲溪岸则上调500元/平方米，和昌都汇华府和广电兰亭时代价格也上调500元/平方米。 2、远城区房价涨幅平均达到18.74% 目前，黄陂盘龙城区域因地理位置毗邻后湖板块，再加上地铁规划的利好，其楼盘价格已经和黄陂老城区、武湖地区的价格差距逐步拉开;江夏区房价加速上涨的因素也较为类似，与汤逊湖、关山板块为邻，地铁7号线，9号线及武咸城际铁路的利好，居住环境的优势吸引了更多的关山片置业者前往购房。 3、环线概念再度被提及 各环线间成交价格差距开始扩大 据亿房网研究中心统计，在剔除经适房、福利房等保障房项目，以及别墅等非普通住宅项目后，武汉市普通商品住宅的环线房价格局已然形成，内环的成交均价约为12660.54元/平方米，主要成交项目多位于武昌中北路沿线以及徐东路沿线;一至二环线的成交均价约为9750.85元/平方面，主要成交项目分布在龙阳大道、江汉二桥、汉西路沿线，及雄楚大道沿线;二至三环的成交均价为8205.31元/平方米，该区域目前为成交热门区间，南湖 the 20 cases liver within hematoma, liver Schistosoma disease, (liver package insect disease) the 2 cases gallbladder stone, bi7 le duct stone, urgent chronic cholecystitis, gallbladder cancer, gallbladder hyperplasia sex disease the 20 cases bile duct cancer, congenital bile duct SAC-like expansion syndrome, (biliary Ascaris disease) the 2 cases urgent, and chronic pancreatic inflammatory, pancreatic cancer the 10 cases pancreatic Island cell tumor, Pancreatic transfer tumor the 2 cases spleen enlargement, 5 cases spleen congenital exception (deficiency as, more spleen syndrome), spleen cyst, spleen lymphatic tumor, spleen vascular tumor, spleen transfer tumor the 2 cases urinary system kidney water, kidney cyst, kidney cancer, kidney stones, nephritis the 20 cases kidney congenital development exception (different bit kidney, and fusion kidney, and kidney deficiency as), kidney sagging, walk kidney, kidney week abscess, kidney TB, kidney function failure, (transplant kidney and complications) the 2 cases ureteral stone, Ureteral water, Ureteral tumor, pelvis cancer the 10 cases the 2 cases ureteral narrow, Ureteral cyst, bladder resting room the 2 cases bladder tumor, bladder stone the 20 cases obstetric and reproductive system normal early pregnancy, and in the pregnancy, and late pregnancy, exception pregnancy (various abortion, and different bit pregnancy, and more tire pregnancy, and expired pregnancy, and fetal growth hysteresis, and fetal deformity, and amniotic fluid too much, and amniotic fluid too little, and Qian reset placenta, and placenta early stripping, and implanted sex placenta), nourish leaves lesions (grape tire, malignant grape tire, and chorionic cancer) the 20 cases the 3 cases congenital uterine deformity, uterine muscle tumor, uterine gland tumor, uterine gland muscle syndrom 片、汉阳四新板块以及后湖板块及关山板块大多包含于内，项目众多;三环外成交均价6717.77元/平方米，成交项目主要集中于东西湖片及沌口片。各环线间房价差距依次为2909.69元/平方米、1545.45元/平方米和1487.54元/平方米，而随着中心地段可开发项目的减少，未来这种环线房价差距将会继续扩大。 4、热销楼盘均主打90平米左右三房 通过对全年楼盘销量前十项目分析，广电兰亭时代主推产品为76平方米的三房，白沙洲区域的复地悦城所推最大产品为89平方米小三房，佳兆业金域天下主推产品也是90平方米左右，至于中心城区，因其房价较高，总价较低的小户型更是主流，汉口中心区的泛海国际居住区悦海园主推85平方米两房，武昌中心区的纯水岸东湖今年主推的高层产品以82-95平方米为主，汉阳中心区的广电兰亭都荟的主力产品为76-92平方米产品。至于销量最好的武汉保利旗下诸盘，该开发商最大的特色就是主打90平方米左右的三房。 5、120平米以上产品去库存压力变大 2013年120平方米以下中小户型的成交套数占比合计为83.71%，较去年提升10%，热销项目九成以上的成交为120平米以下的户型。同时，今年该面积段的新增供应占比80.16%。说明120平以下户型进入加速去库存阶段。与之相反的，则是120平方米以上产品，全年的新增供应量大于其成交量，该结构产品总量持续累加，库存压力变大。 6、武汉楼市整体去化周期有一定增长 2013年，武汉市商品住宅的去化周期平均为18.5个月，较12年增长约1个月，远城区的去化周期更长，为20个月左右。目前，二线城市的去化周期多在15个月左右，如杭州前11个月的去化周期约14个月，重庆前11个月的去化周期约8个月，福州的去化周期约the 20 cases liver within hematoma, liver Schistosoma disease, (liver package insect disease) the 2 cases gallbladder stone, bile duct stone, urgent chronic cholecystitis, gallbladder cancer, gallbladder hyperplasia sex disease the 20 cases bile duct cancer, congenital bile duct SAC-like expansion syndrome, (biliary Ascaris disease) the 2 cases urgent, and chronic pancreatic inflammatory, pancreatic cancer the 10 cases pancreatic Island cell tumor, Pancreatic transfer tumor the 2 cases spleen enlargement, 5 cases spleen congenital exception (deficiency as, more spleen syndrome), spleen cyst, spleen lymphatic tumor, spleen vascular tumor, spleen transfer tumor the 2 cases urinary system kidney water, kidney cyst, kidney cancer, kidney stones, nephritis the 20 cases kidney congenital development exception (different bit kidney, and fusion kidney, and kidney deficiency as), kidney sagging, walk kidney, kidney week abscess, kidney TB, kidney function failure, (transplant kidney and complications) the 2 cases ureteral stone, Ureteral water, Ureteral tumor, pelvis cancer the 10 cases the 2 cases ureteral narrow, Ureteral cyst, bladder resting room the 2 cases bladder tumor, bladder stone the 20 cases obstetric and reproductive system normal early pregnancy, and in the pregnancy, and late pregnancy, exception pregnancy (various abortion, and different bit pregnancy, and more tire pregnancy, and expired pregnancy, and fetal growth hysteresis, and fetal deformity, and amniotic fluid too much, and amniotic fluid too little, and Qian reset placenta, and placenta early stripping, and implanted sex placenta), nourish leaves lesions (grape tire, malignant grape tire, and chorionic cancer) the 20 cases the 3 cases congenital uterine deformity, uterine muscle tumor, uterine gland tumor, uterine gland muscle syndrom 13个月，相比这些城市而言，武汉的整体去库存周期稍长，不过武汉作为中部重点城市之一，未来的人口集聚力较强，其去化周期虽有一定压力，但仍属健康范围内。 7、写字楼和商业物业供应有所减少 2013年，武汉全市新增项目的物业类型主要为住宅，占76.33%，较2012年增加8.37个百分点;其次是厂房仓库类物业，占9.17%，较2012年增加4.30个百分点;写字楼办公楼类物业，占8.09%，较2012年减少5.21个百分点;商业类物业，占5.55%，较去年减少7.49个百分点;其他类物业(主要是车库)占0.87%，较去年增加0.03个百分点。 8、2013年商品住宅分户型供应结构变化不大 从商品住宅供应的户型面积来看:2013年，武汉主城区新增商品住宅90-120平方米的户型供应比重居首位，占40.91%，占比较2012年增加0.16%;其次为90平方米以下户型，占39.26%，占比较2012年增加3.32%;120-140平方米的户型和140平方米以上户型分别占12.28%和7.55%，分别较2012年减少0.66%和2.82%。受楼市调控影响，政策更多的支持首次置业购房需求，故大户型产品入市量有所减少。 the 20 cases liver within hematoma, liver Schistosoma disease, (liver package insect disease) the 2 cases gallbladder stone, bi9 le duct stone, urgent chronic cholecystitis, gallbladder cancer, gallbladder hyperplasia sex disease the 20 cases bile duct cancer, congenital bile duct SAC-like expansion syndrome, (biliary Ascaris disease) the 2 cases urgent, and chronic pancreatic inflammatory, pancreatic cancer the 10 cases pancreatic Island cell tumor, Pancreatic transfer tumor the 2 cases spleen enlargement, 5 cases spleen congenital exception (deficiency as, more spleen syndrome), spleen cyst, spleen lymphatic tumor, spleen vascular tumor, spleen transfer tumor the 2 cases urinary system kidney water, kidney cyst, kidney cancer, kidney stones, nephritis the 20 cases kidney congenital development exception (different bit kidney, and fusion kidney, and kidney deficiency as), kidney sagging, walk kidney, kidney week abscess, kidney TB, kidney function failure, (transplant kidney and complications) the 2 cases ureteral stone, Ureteral water, Ureteral tumor, pelvis cancer the 10 cases the 2 cases ureteral narrow, Ureteral cyst, bladder resting room the 2 cases bladder tumor, bladder stone the 20 cases obstetric and reproductive system normal early pregnancy, and in the pregnancy, and late pregnancy, exception pregnancy (various abortion, and different bit pregnancy, and more tire pregnancy, and expired pregnancy, and fetal growth hysteresis, and fetal deformity, and amniotic fluid too much, and amniotic fluid too little, and Qian reset placenta, and placenta early stripping, and implanted sex placenta), nourish leaves lesions (grape tire, malignant grape tire, and chorionic cancer) the 20 cases the 3 cases congenital uterine deformity, uterine muscle tumor, uterine gland tumor, uterine gland muscle syndrom 2014年武汉房地产市场预测与展望 2013年，武汉2049远景规划正式出台，武汉的城市功能定位为四个中心:国家的创新中心、贸易中心、金融中心与高端制造中心，将重点突出中部地区的地位与作用。 预计届时武汉市总人口将在1600万左右。其中，城市中央活动区范围内，人口将继续增长，但远景有所回落，将稳定在220万人左右。除去中央活动区，主城区人口将缓慢增长，规模达到550万人。外围新城组群将达到480万人;市域的外围人口将达到约350万人。 接着武汉2049的畅想，我们对未来武汉市的商品住宅市场仍具有非常广阔的发展前景保持着乐观的态度。 (一)2014年房产政策的主调仍是“控房价” 从2013年底出台的进一步“双限” 政策和“差额征收20%个税”政策未落地来看，在短期内，出台激进的房产政策的可能性不大，房产调控的主调仍是勒紧房价上涨的“笼头”。限购限贷仍将从严，而且指标压力已经明确的传递给地方政府。 (二)人口红利持续 住宅市场需求依然较大 从武汉市的远景规划可以看到，到2049年，武汉全市的人口规模预计将达到1800万左右，而目前，武汉全市人口大约在1000万左右，照此计算，未来35年的人口平均增长应该在23万人左右，从受教育水平更为出众，高中以上文化水平占全部常住人口的比重达46.97%，远高于全省26.14%的水平;对比中部三省，仅武汉存在大量净流入人口，净流入为140万;另外，“大学毕业生留汉工程”的启动，武汉人才引入的环境正在发生改变。 上述数据均说明了武汉市的人口红利还将持续下去，这也意味着每年都会有大量的购房需求出现，以之前年均人口增长23万的情况来看，2014年以家庭为单位的购房需求预计不低于10万。不过，由于2013年年末限购政策的从严，市场需求在年底有所减少，会有部分外地购房需求受到抑制。总的来说，2013年商品住宅市场是武汉楼市的一个峰值的体现，2014年全年商品住宅的销售套数或不高于今年的总量，但需求结构的短暂变化，或许在住宅的平均成交面积和全年总量上会有继续地增涨，涨幅要小于今年。 (三)二环内旧城改造提速 购房者或转向二环以外 从城镇化建设情况来看，2013年已经进入了二环线内的旧城改造阶段，可以预见，2014年的拆迁规模依然较大，但总拆迁面积或有所减少，总体拆迁需求或在2014年上半年稳中有涨，全市商品住宅的成交量在上半年或出现翘尾性增加，下半年则适当减少。 从成交的区域性结构来看，由于房价的不断高企，旧城改造带来的拆迁条件难以像城中村改造那样获得较高的利益，故这类拆迁需求预计会选择主城区房价相对较低的二至三环线，以及三环线以外的区域，预计这些区域的销量会有所增加。 (四)房价整体上行 涨幅或将先扬后抑 除了人口红利及拆迁带来的购房需求外，城镇化建设则将对提升武汉房产价值起到至关重要的作用，随着武汉市一年一条地铁的开通，未来地铁沿线楼盘将成为热门项目，武汉房价将继续保持整体上行的趋势。 同时2013年远城区由于城建规划方面的利好，房价涨势较快，但这种政策规划红利的影响预计将逐年减弱，考虑到远城区房价基数已有拔高，2014年，远城区房价上涨速度将会全面放缓 参考文献来源 中商情报网、长江日报、亿房网、武汉市统计局官网、武汉房地产信息网、 百度文库、 the 20 cases liver within hematoma, liver Schistosoma disease, (liver package insect disease) the 2 cases gallbladder stone, bile duct stone, urgent chronic cholecystitis, gallbladder cancer, gallbladder hyperplasia sex disease the 20 cases bile duct cancer, congenital bile duct SAC-like expansion syndrome, (biliary Ascaris disease) the 2 cases urgent, and chronic pancreatic inflammatory, pancreatic cancer the 10 cases pancreatic Island cell tumor, Pancreatic transfer tumor the 2 cases spleen enlargement, 5 cases spleen congenital exception (deficiency as, more spleen syndrome), spleen cyst, spleen lymphatic tumor, spleen vascular tumor, spleen transfer tumor the 2 cases urinary system kidney water, kidney cyst, kidney cancer, kidney stones, nephritis the 20 cases kidney congenital development exception (different bit kidney, and fusion kidney, and kidney deficiency as), kidney sagging, walk kidney, kidney week abscess, kidney TB, kidney function failure, (transplant kidney and complications) the 2 cases ureteral stone, Ureteral water, Ureteral tumor, pelvis cancer the 10 cases the 2 cases ureteral narrow, Ureteral cyst, bladder resting room the 2 cases bladder tumor, bladder stone the 20 cases obstetric and reproductive system normal early pregnancy, and in the pregnancy, and late pregnancy, exception pregnancy (various abortion, and different bit pregnancy, and more tire pregnancy, and expired pregnancy, and fetal growth hysteresis, and fetal deformity, and amniotic fluid too much, and amniotic fluid too little, and Qian reset placenta, and placenta early stripping, and implanted sex placenta), nourish leaves lesions (grape tire, malignant grape tire, and chorionic cancer) the 20 cases the 3 cases congenital uterine deformity, uterine muscle tumor, uterine gland tumor, uterine gland muscle syndrom