证券投资分析之基本面、技术面分析

证券投资分析之基本面、技术面分析 证券投资基本面分析、技术面分析之区别与联系 大纲, 1.概述 2.基本面分析简介 3.技术面分析简介 4.基本面分析与技术面分析联系与区别 5.总结 内容, 1.概述 股票投资证券需要掌握基本面分析、技术面分析。在分析一家上市公司的投资价值时,应该从宏观经济、行业状况和公司情况三个方面着手,才能对上市公司有一个全面的认识。 2.基本面分析简介 基本面分析方法,是指把对股票的分析研究重点放在它本身的内在价值上。股票价值在市场上所现的价格,往往受到许多因素的影响而频繁变动。 最重要的有三个方面,一是全国的经济环境是繁荣还是萧条。二是各经济部门如农业、工业、商业、运输业、公用事业、金融业等各行各业的状况如何。三是发行该股票的企业的经营状况如何。 ,1,.基本面分析——宏观经济,政策,分析 证券市场历来被看作“国民经济的晴雨表”,是宏观经济的先行指equipment shall conform to the design type, specification of the transfer request. Cable transfer arrangement and symbol name should be consistent with the design of the equipment. Unified label names, mark the correct position, clear. About the electrical properties of twisted-pair cable, mechanical characteristics, transmission performance of optical fiber cable and connector specifications and requirements, should comply with the design requirements. Power outlets are provided "fire left 0 right" acceptance. Cabinets, rack mounting requires the following: after the installation of cabinets, racks, vertical deviation should be less than 3MM. Cabinets, rack installation location should comply with the design requirements. Cabinets, racks of parts shall not fall off or break, and finish if off should be touch up, signs should be complete and clear. Install the wiring parts requirements are as follows; The wiring parts should be complete, installation, sign is complete; Mounting screws must be tightened, panels should be kept to a flat surface. Modular universal socket installation requirements are as follows: socket panel with vertical and horizontal forms, junction box lid switch and is waterproof, dust-proof, resistant to compression. Junction box should be flush with the ground. Modular universal socket, multi-user information outlets or wiring modules, the installation location should comply with the design requirements. Modular universal outlet box and subject to the conditions fixed according to the construction site, expansion screws preset should be used, and so on. Socket panel logo, 标,宏观经济的走向决定了证券市场的长期趋势。投资者有必要对一些重要的宏观经济运行变量给予关注。宏观经济运行与政策分析可分为六部分,国内生产总值GDP、通货膨胀、利率、汇率、财政政策以及货币政策。 ,2,.基本面分析——行业分析 行业分析主要看行业发展所处阶段及行业政策导向。由于所处行业不同,上市公司的投资价值会存在较大的差异。进行行业分析,我们需要关注的是,行业本身所处发展阶段及其在国民经济中的地位,影响行业发展的各种因素及其对行业影响的力度,行业未来发展趋势,行业的投资价值及投资风险。 1,.行业与经济周期 宏观经济的运行呈现周期性特点,一个经济周期包括繁荣、衰退、萧条、复苏四个阶段。由于不同行业对于经济周期的敏感性不同,其业绩可能会出现比较大的差异。根据行业与经济周期变动关系,可将行业分为增长型行业、周期型行业和防守型行业。 2,.行业生命周期 通常,行业的生命周期分为幼稚期、成长期、成熟期和衰退期。一般而言,处于幼稚期的公司比较适合投机者和创业投资者,处于成长期的行业,其增长具有明确性,投资者分享行业成长、获取较高投资回报的可能性比较高。 ,3,.基本面分析——公司分析 对于上市公司投资价值的把握,具体还是要落实到公司自身的经营状况与发展前景。投资者需要了解公司在行业中的地位、所占市场份额、equipment shall conform to the design type, specification of the transfer request. Cable transfer arrangement and symbol name should be consistent with the design of the equipment. Unified label names, mark the correct position, clear. About the electrical properties of twisted-pair cable, mechanical characteristics, transmission performance of optical fiber cable and connector specifications and requirements, should comply with the design requirements. Power outlets are provided "fire left 0 right" acceptance. Cabinets, rack mounting requires the following: after the installation of cabinets, racks, vertical deviation should be less than 3MM. Cabinets, rack installation location should comply with the design requirements. Cabinets, racks of parts shall not fall off or break, and finish if off should be touch up, signs should be complete and clear. Install the wiring parts requirements are as follows; The wiring parts should be complete, installation, sign is complete; Mounting screws must be tightened, panels should be kept to a flat surface. Modular universal socket installation requirements are as follows: socket panel with vertical and horizontal forms, junction box lid switch and is waterproof, dust-proof, resistant to compression. Junction box should be flush with the ground. Modular universal socket, multi-user information outlets or wiring modules, the installation location should comply with the design requirements. Modular universal outlet box and subject to the conditions fixed according to the construction site, expansion screws preset should be used, and so on. Socket panel logo, 财务状况、未来成长性等方面以做出自己的投资决策。 1、公司基本面分析 包括行业地位分析、经济区位分析、产品分析、经营战略与管理层 2、公司财务分析 公司财务分析是公司分析中最为重要的一环,一家公司的财务报表是其一段时间生产经营活动的一个缩影,是投资者了解公司经营状况和对未来发展趋势进行预测的重要依据。财务指标的运用需要将其与行业平均水平、本公司历史水平进行比较,以分析变动趋势。 其中包括, 1)偿债能力分析 2)营运能力分析 3,盈利能力分析。 ,、公司估值方法 进行公司估值的逻辑在于“价值决定价格”。上市公司估值方法通常分为两类,一类是相对估值方法,如市盈率估值法、市净率估值法、EVEBITDA估值法等,,另一类是绝对估值方法,如股利折现模型估值、自由现金流折现模型估值等,。 投资者在进行上市公司投资价值分析时,需要结合宏观、行业和上市公司财务状况、市场估值水平等各类信息,同时区别影响上市公司股价的主要因素与次要因素、可持续因素和不可持续因素,对上市公司作出客观、理性的价值评估。 3.技术面分析简介 所谓股价的技术分析,是相对于基本分析而言的。正如上一部分所述,基本分析法着重于对一般经济情况以及各个公司的经营管理状况、行业动态等因素进行分析,以此来研究股票的价值,衡量股价的高低。而技术分析则是透过图表或技术指标的记录,研究市场过去及 3,the conditions fixed according to the construction site, expansion screws preset should be used, and so on. Socket panel logoversal outlet box and subject to user information outlets or wiring modules, the installation location should comply with the design requirements. Modular uni-ant to compression. Junction box should be flush with the ground. Modular universal socket, multiproof, resist-ents are as follows: socket panel with vertical and horizontal forms, junction box lid switch and is waterproof, duste; Mounting screws must be tightened, panels should be kept to a flat surface. Modular universal socket installation requiremompletand clear. Install the wiring parts requirements are as follows; The wiring parts should be complete, installation, sign is cements. Cabinets, racks of parts shall not fall off or break, and finish if off should be touch up, signs should be complete requirinets, racks, vertical deviation should be less than 3MM. Cabinets, rack installation location should comply with the design ts are provided "fire left 0 right" acceptance. Cabinets, rack mounting requires the following: after the installation of cabirements, should comply with the design requirements. Power outlepair cable, mechanical characteristics, transmission performance of optical fiber cable and connector specifications and requ-rrect position, clear. About the electrical properties of twistedshould be consistent with the design of the equipment. Unified label names, mark the co equipment shall conform to the design type, specification of the transfer request. Cable transfer arrangement and symbol name 现在的行为反应,以推测未来价格的变动趋势。其依据的技术指标的主要内容是由股价、成交量或涨跌指数等数据计算而得的,我们也由此可知??技术分析只关心证券市场本身的变化,而不考虑会对其产生某种影响的经济方面、政治方面的等各种外部的因素。 技术面分析是用技术指标来判断股市运行规律是一种很直观的投资,优势是可以有比较明确的操作守则,买卖都可以有一个套路,水平高的技术派投资甚至可以做到凭经验提前预计股市和股价的运行趋势,对经验积累的要求很高。常用的技术分析方法有趋势分析、指标分析、资金分析等等。 分时走势图 分时走势图也叫即时走势图,它是把股票市场的交易信息实时地用曲线在坐标图上加以显示的技术图形。坐标的横轴是开市的时间,纵轴的上半部分是股价或指数,下半部分显示的是成交量。分时走势图是股市现场交易的即时资料。 分时走势图分为指数分时走势图和个股分时走势图。 ，线理论初级 ，线图最早是日本德川幕府时代大阪的米商用来记录当时一天、一周或一月中米价涨跌行情的图示法,后被引入股市。，线图有直观、立体感强、携带信息量大的特点,蕴涵着丰富的东方哲学思想,能充分显示股价趋势的强弱、买卖双方力量平衡的变化,预测后市走向较准确,是各类传播媒介、电脑实时分析系统应用较多的技术分析手段。 除分时走势图、K线图外,有很多指标分析,如平滑异同移动平均线,MACD,、随机指标,KDJ,、动向指数,DMI,、相对强弱指equipment shall conform to the design type, specification of the transfer request. Cable transfer arrangement and symbol name should be consistent with the design of the equipment. Unified label names, mark the correct position, clear. About the electrical properties of twisted-pair cable, mechanical characteristics, transmission performance of optical fiber cable and connector specifications and requirements, should comply with the design requirements. Power outlets are provided "fire left 0 right" acceptance. Cabinets, rack mounting requires the following: after the installation of cabinets, racks, vertical deviation should be less than 3MM. Cabinets, rack installation location should comply with the design requirements. Cabinets, racks of parts shall not fall off or break, and finish if off should be touch up, signs should be complete and clear. Install the wiring parts requirements are as follows; The wiring parts should be complete, installation, sign is complete; Mounting screws must be tightened, panels should be kept to a flat surface. Modular universal socket installation requirements are as follows: socket panel with vertical and horizontal forms, junction box lid switch and is waterproof, dust-proof, resistant to compression. Junction box should be flush with the ground. Modular universal socket, multi-user information outlets or wiring modules, the installation location should comply with the design requirements. Modular universal outlet box and subject to the conditions fixed according to the construction site, expansion screws preset should be used, and so on. Socket panel logo, 标,RSI,、累积能量线,OBV,、BRAR指标、振动升降指标,ASI,、乖离率,BIAS,、威廉指标、麦克指标等许多指标。还有著名的波浪理论、江恩理论,以及成交量与股价的关系辅助分析等等。 4.基本面分析与技术面分析联系与区别 ,1,.联系 股价技术分析和基本分析都认为股价是由供求关系所决定。基本分析主要是根据对影响供需关系种种因素的分析来预测股价走势,而技术分析则是根据股价本身的变化来预测股价走势。两者的起点与终点一致,都为了更好把握投资时机,进行科学决策,以达到赢利目的。两者实践基础相同,都是人们在长期投资实践中逐步总结归纳并提炼的科学方法,他们自成体系,既相对独立又相互联系。两者在实践中的运用相辅相成,都对投资者具有指导意义。基本分析股票的选择,技术分析决定投资的最佳时机。两者的结合,即选准对象和把握机会,才能在证券投资中有所斩获。 ,2,.区别 1,.对市场有效性的判定不同 以技术分析为基础的投资策略是以否定弱式有效市场为前提的,技术分析认为投资者可以通过对以往价格进行分析而获得超额利润,而以基本分析为基础的投资策略是以否定半强式有效市场为前提的,基本分析认为公开资料没有完全包括有关公司价值的信息、有关宏观经济形势和政策方面的信息,因此,通过基本分析可以获得超额利润。 5,the conditions fixed according to the construction site, expansion screws preset should be used, and so on. Socket panel logoversal outlet box and subject to user information outlets or wiring modules, the installation location should comply with the design requirements. Modular uni-ant to compression. Junction box should be flush with the ground. Modular universal socket, multiproof, resist-ents are as follows: socket panel with vertical and horizontal forms, junction box lid switch and is waterproof, duste; Mounting screws must be tightened, panels should be kept to a flat surface. Modular universal socket installation requiremompletand clear. Install the wiring parts requirements are as follows; The wiring parts should be complete, installation, sign is cements. Cabinets, racks of parts shall not fall off or break, and finish if off should be touch up, signs should be complete requirinets, racks, vertical deviation should be less than 3MM. Cabinets, rack installation location should comply with the design ts are provided "fire left 0 right" acceptance. Cabinets, rack mounting requires the following: after the installation of cabirements, should comply with the design requirements. Power outlepair cable, mechanical characteristics, transmission performance of optical fiber cable and connector specifications and requ-rrect position, clear. About the electrical properties of twistedshould be consistent with the design of the equipment. Unified label names, mark the co equipment shall conform to the design type, specification of the transfer request. Cable transfer arrangement and symbol name 2,. 分析基础不同 技术分析足以市场上历史的交易数据(股价和成交量)为研究基础,市场上的一切行为都反映在价格变动中,基本分析是以宏观经济、行业和基本经济数据为研究基础,通过对公司业绩的判断确定其投资价值。 3,. 使用的分析工具不同 技术分析通常以市场历史交易数据的统计结果为基础,通过曲线图的方式描述股票价格运动的规律,基本分析则主要以宏观经济指标、行业基本数据和公司财务指标等数据为基础进行综合分析。 4,.目的、时间上不同 基本分析的目的是为了判断股票现行股价的价位是否合理并描绘出它长远的发展空间,技术分析主要是预测短期内股价涨跌的趋势。通过基本分析我们可以了解应购买何种股票,而技术分析则让我们把握具体购买的时机。 在时间上,技术分析法注重短期分析,在预测旧趋势结束和新趋势开始方面优于基本分析法,但在预测较长期趋势方面则不如后者。大多数成功的股票投资者都是把两种分析方法结合起来加以运用。他们用基本分析法估计较长期趋势,而用技术分析法判断短期走势和确定买卖的时机。 5.总结 从投资策略发展演变的过程来看,技术分析和基本分析都曾经主导过一个时期投资分析的主流。随着上市公司运作的逐步和投资equipment shall conform to the design type, specification of the transfer request. Cable transfer arrangement and symbol name should be consistent with the design of the equipment. Unified label names, mark the correct position, clear. About the electrical properties of twisted-pair cable, mechanical characteristics, transmission performance of optical fiber cable and connector specifications and requirements, should comply with the design requirements. Power outlets are provided "fire left 0 right" acceptance. Cabinets, rack mounting requires the following: after the installation of cabinets, racks, vertical deviation should be less than 3MM. Cabinets, rack installation location should comply with the design requirements. Cabinets, racks of parts shall not fall off or break, and finish if off should be touch up, signs should be complete and clear. Install the wiring parts requirements are as follows; The wiring parts should be complete, installation, sign is complete; Mounting screws must be tightened, panels should be kept to a flat surface. Modular universal socket installation requirements are as follows: socket panel with vertical and horizontal forms, junction box lid switch and is waterproof, dust-proof, resistant to compression. Junction box should be flush with the ground. Modular universal socket, multi-user information outlets or wiring modules, the installation location should comply with the design requirements. Modular universal outlet box and subject to the conditions fixed according to the construction site, expansion screws preset should be used, and so on. Socket panel logo, 理念的理性回归,基本分析越来越受到投资者的关注,股利贴现模型和低市盈率等指标都得到了更为广泛的应用。投资策略发展到今天,以基本分析为主,辅以技术分析是目前的投资策略的主流。以基本分析作为判断公司投资价值的基础,以技术分析观察股价市场走势判断买卖时机,两种分析方法的结合充分发挥了各自的优势。 股票投资是一种智慧型投资。长期投资者要注重于基本方法,短期投资者则要注重技术分析。股市有风险,入市需谨慎,高收益的同时带来的也是高风险。所以每一个投资者在走每一步的时候都应谨慎行事,为了争取尽可能大的收益,并把可能的风险降到最低限度,我们要认真进行股票投资分析,综合运用自己的知识、理论、技术以及方法详尽的周密分析,进行科学的决策,以获得有保障的投资收益。 7,the conditions fixed according to the construction site, expansion screws preset should be used, and so on. Socket panel logoversal outlet box and subject to user information outlets or wiring modules, the installation location should comply with the design requirements. Modular uni-ant to compression. Junction box should be flush with the ground. Modular universal socket, multiproof, resist-ents are as follows: socket panel with vertical and horizontal forms, junction box lid switch and is waterproof, duste; Mounting screws must be tightened, panels should be kept to a flat surface. Modular universal socket installation requiremompletand clear. Install the wiring parts requirements are as follows; The wiring parts should be complete, installation, sign is cements. Cabinets, racks of parts shall not fall off or break, and finish if off should be touch up, signs should be complete requirinets, racks, vertical deviation should be less than 3MM. Cabinets, rack installation location should comply with the design ts are provided "fire left 0 right" acceptance. Cabinets, rack mounting requires the following: after the installation of cabirements, should comply with the design requirements. Power outlepair cable, mechanical characteristics, transmission performance of optical fiber cable and connector specifications and requ-rrect position, clear. About the electrical properties of twistedshould be consistent with the design of the equipment. Unified label names, mark the co equipment shall conform to the design type, specification of the transfer request. Cable transfer arrangement and symbol name