市盈率计算误区

市盈率计算误区 市盈率计算误区之一 市盈率是评判一家公司股票是否物有所值一个最重要的指标之一。众所周知: 市盈率=每股股价/每股收益 单纯的看公式似乎没什么感觉，我们还是拿一家公司为例来说明。 这是人福科技(沪市:600079)2006年度和2007第一季度的每股收益情况。2006年12月29号人福科技的收盘价为4.89元。我们计算出它的市盈率为4.89/0.41=11.9。作为一家成长性的公司，这样的市盈率似乎低得不可思议。 事实上，就像在净利润与净利润扣除中讨论的一样，每股收益在这里意义也不大。因为它包含了出售杰士邦子公司的投资收益。 用每股收益扣除更能反应公司的实际情况:4.89/0.17=28.7。 你应该用28.7的市盈率来作为你的投资参考，而不是11.9。 市盈率计算误区之二 在上一篇文章《市盈率的计算误区之一》提到了用每股收益扣除这个参数比每股收益更能反应一家公司的经营业绩。 事实上，当一家公司的非经常性损益相对于净利润可以忽略不计时，每股收益扣除和每股收益相差无几。 一般来说，我们使用的“每股收益”主要是上一个财政年度整年的。而有些网站或软件在计算一家公司的市盈率时，经常故作聪明的将2007年第一季度的收益 (4*Q1)当作年度“每股收益”。 乘以4 用这种收益计算出来的市盈率是相当不精确的。我们以伟星股份(002003)为例来说明。 engineering construction and acceptance specification for 5 GB50275-98 compressor, fan and pump installation engineering construction and acceptance specification for lifting 6 HG20201-2000 construction installation engineering construction standard 7, HG ... Pressure gauges, using an installed spark arrestor for acetylene cylinders, illegal carrying, using gas cylinders, each operator fined 20 Yuan. Gas bottle without the hot sun exposure measures, responsibilities of team a fine of 50 Yuan. (7) at height and the opening and provisional protective measures have been taken, the responsible unit fined 200 Yuan, construction person in charge a fine of 50 Yuan. (8) no permit to work and the job in accordance with the provisions, on the job unit fined 300 yuan, the unit will charge a fine of 100 Yuan. 7.5.3 accident penalties (1) injuries fatalities directly punished 1~2 million. Direct responsibility for the accident and have the corresponding responsibility of leadership, such as concerning administrative sanctions, should be brought to the company or the relevant Department. (2) personal injury accident occurred, the direct punishment 0.5-10,000 yuan, responsible for the direct responsibility for the accident and the responsibility of leadership, such as concerning administrative sanctions should be dealt with by the personnel Department of the company. (3) personal injury accident occurs, the direct punishment 500-1000, who is directly responsible for the accident responsibility, give notice of criticism and 50-100 economic sanctions against them. (4) to conceal the accident, reported without undue delay or false, to inform the 我们可以看到2006年的第一季度每股收益只有0.067，与2006年的年度收益0.729完全没有4倍的关系。 同样，在2005年的前两个季度，每股收益只有0.171，而2005年的年度收益为0.47。也没有2倍的关系。 可以看出，伟星股份的季度收益并不平衡，每年的后两个季度收益远远超过前两个季度的收益。 像这样的公司，季度收益之间差别很大。采用第一季度收益乘以4来计算整个年度的收益，偏差是相当大的。鑫网通信达软件计算的伟星股份市盈率为105，而以去年的年度每股收益来计算，其市盈率为36。这个值才是真正值得投资者参考的市盈率。 在计算市盈率的时候，切不可迷信股票软件或财经网站。找出真正的“每股收益”，你才能得到有参考价值的“市盈率”。 眼花缭乱的市盈率 我们以伟星股份为例，可以看到各大财经网站、股票软件计算出来的市盈率大相径庭。某些采用了所谓的动态市盈率，而某些又以2006年的年度收益为准。 相对而言，有参考价值的仅仅是163财经计算出来的市盈率。可惜这个市盈率在公司的年度收益主要以投资收益为主的时候，也并没有多大的参考价值。不过伟星股份并没有很大的投资收益，也没有很大的非经常性损失，所以这个市盈率是可以拿来做投资参考的。 股票软件计算出来的市盈率没有任何参考价值，我们在《市盈率的计算误区之二》中已经谈到。 至于搜狐财经和和讯财经计算出来的市盈率，没有兴趣去研究，他们是如何计算出来的。 engineering construction and acceptance specification for 5 GB50275-98 compressor, fan and pump installation engineering construction and acceptance specification for lifting 6 HG20201-2000 construction installation engineering construction standard 7, HG ... Pressure gauges, using an installed spark arrestor for acetylene cylinders, illegal carrying, using gas cylinders, each operator fined 20 Yuan. Gas bottle without the hot sun exposure measures, responsibilities of team a fine of 50 Yuan. (7) at height and the opening and provisional protective measures have been taken, the responsible unit fined 200 Yuan, construction person in charge a fine of 50 Yuan. (8) no permit to work and the job in accordance with the provisions, on the job unit fined 300 yuan, the unit will charge a fine of 100 Yuan. 7.5.3 accident penalties (1) injuries fatalities directly punished 1~2 million. Direct responsibility for the accident and have the corresponding responsibility of leadership, such as concerning administrative sanctions, should be brought to the company or the relevant Department. (2) personal injury accident occurred, the direct punishment 0.5-10,000 yuan, responsible for the direct responsibility for the accident and the responsibility of leadership, such as concerning administrative sanctions should be dealt with by the personnel Department of the company. (3) personal injury accident occurs, the direct punishment 500-1000, who is directly responsible for the accident responsibility, give notice of criticism and 50-100 economic sanctions against them. (4) to conceal the accident, reported without undue delay or false, to inform the 市盈 备注 率 163财经 34.97 当前价格/2006年每股收益 搜狐财经 56.79 未知 和讯财经 95.85 未知 通达信软101.9 当前价格/(2007年第一季度每股收益 件 ×4) 6月 02 为什么说股市过热了,股市真的过热了吗, 判断股票市场是否高估的标准就是看它的平均市盈率。 股票市场的平均的市盈率就是整个上市公司的市值总和除以他们上一年度的净利润总和。(扣除亏损的公司不算) 对于市盈率这个概念不理解的朋友可以这样看待它:如果一家公司的年度净利润一直持续下去，市盈率就是收回你的投资所需要的年份数。举例来说，目前A股市场一家典型公司的市盈率为35，意味着如果这家公司的每年收益不变的话，你得要35年才能收回你的投资。 在比较成熟的美国股票市场，一般的公司其市盈率都在10左右。我们的A股市场平均市盈率都到了40，想一想吧，这是一个多么恐怖数字。 大家都说新兴市场的市盈率比较高。原因来自于公司不断成长的净利润。不过净利润的增长能够将如此高的市盈率降下来吗, 要把这个市盈率降下来，平均来讲，我们的A股上市公司未来几年的净利润要能保持40,的增长率。可大家都知道这是不可能的。 不过对于个股，情况就有所不同了。如果你找到一家公司，他的市盈率是35。你也确认这家公司的净利润在未来几年能保持35,的增长，那它确实是一家值得考虑的投资对象。 在高估的市场里作投资，犹如在悬崖边跳舞。虽然刺激，但很危险。 6月 06 周期性公司的市盈率 engineering construction and acceptance specification for 5 GB50275-98 compressor, fan and pump installation engineering construction and acceptance specification for lifting 6 HG20201-2000 construction installation engineering construction standard 7, HG ... Pressure gauges, using an installed spark arrestor for acetylene cylinders, illegal carrying, using gas cylinders, each operator fined 20 Yuan. Gas bottle without the hot sun exposure measures, responsibilities of team a fine of 50 Yuan. (7) at height and the opening and provisional protective measures have been taken, the responsible unit fined 200 Yuan, construction person in charge a fine of 50 Yuan. (8) no permit to work and the job in accordance with the provisions, on the job unit fined 300 yuan, the unit will charge a fine of 100 Yuan. 7.5.3 accident penalties (1) injuries fatalities directly punished 1~2 million. Direct responsibility for the accident and have the corresponding responsibility of leadership, such as concerning administrative sanctions, should be brought to the company or the relevant Department. (2) personal injury accident occurred, the direct punishment 0.5-10,000 yuan, responsible for the direct responsibility for the accident and the responsibility of leadership, such as concerning administrative sanctions should be dealt with by the personnel Department of the company. (3) personal injury accident occurs, the direct punishment 500-1000, who is directly responsible for the accident responsibility, give notice of criticism and 50-100 economic sanctions against them. (4) to conceal the accident, reported without undue delay or false, to inform the 一般我们用市盈率的高低来判断一家公司股价是否被高估。多数情况下，市盈率远大于年均净利润增长率是风险很大的。 那市盈率是不是越小越好呢,对周期性公司而言，这种判断并不正确。 有色金属类、钢铁类公司，就是典型的周期性公司，比如A股的江西铜业、云南铜业、宝钢股份等等。它们的市盈率都低于20。可像云南铜业近两年的净利润增长速度远高于20,。 这样的公司就是值得投资的吗,仅仅这样判断还是不够的。周期性公司和一般的消费品公司不一样，他们受到全球经济周期的影响。特别是有色金属行业。 也就是说这一类公司业绩的大幅增长并不是来自于市场占有率的提高，也不是来自于管理层降低成本等。一句话:公司内在的赚钱能力并没有提高。所有这一切都是大环境的影响。 当我们用市盈率来判断周期性公司的时候，一定要提高警惕。 即使是市盈率很低的周期性公司，蕴藏的风险可能也是很大的。因为在周期结束的时候，公司的业绩可能会一塌糊涂，特别是那些管理不善的公司。 6月 13 一家公司是否值得投资之三步曲 第一步:看这家公司是做什么的。如果一家公司的主营业务我们看不懂，那么最好是远离它。 第二步:分析这家公司的财务情况。这一步是比较困难的地方，因为财务报里面的数据太多，以至于我们很容易淹没在数据的海洋里。在这里，我建议大家关注几个数据: 1. 净利润增长率。 这个净利润增长率必须排除非经常性损益、投资 收益。每年的净利润增长率不管是20%、还是30%，能够保持稳定， 那是最好了。大起大落的净利润增长率并不好。 2. 净资产收益率。不同的公司净资产收益率略有不同。但对一家管理 优秀的公司，其净资产收益率至少得到10%。 3. 负债。长期负债最好在股东权益的25%以下。 第三步:判断这家公司股票价格的高低。这一步是考验我们的地方。幸亏我们有市盈率这个利器。市盈率就是用来判断公司股票价格高低一个最重要的指标。不engineering construction and acceptance specification for 5 GB50275-98 compressor, fan and pump installation engineering construction and acceptance specification for lifting 6 HG20201-2000 construction installation engineering construction standard 7, HG ... Pressure gauges, using an installed spark arrestor for acetylene cylinders, illegal carrying, using gas cylinders, each operator fined 20 Yuan. Gas bottle without the hot sun exposure measures, responsibilities of team a fine of 50 Yuan. (7) at height and the opening and provisional protective measures have been taken, the responsible unit fined 200 Yuan, construction person in charge a fine of 50 Yuan. (8) no permit to work and the job in accordance with the provisions, on the job unit fined 300 yuan, the unit will charge a fine of 100 Yuan. 7.5.3 accident penalties (1) injuries fatalities directly punished 1~2 million. Direct responsibility for the accident and have the corresponding responsibility of leadership, such as concerning administrative sanctions, should be brought to the company or the relevant Department. (2) personal injury accident occurred, the direct punishment 0.5-10,000 yuan, responsible for the direct responsibility for the accident and the responsibility of leadership, such as concerning administrative sanctions should be dealt with by the personnel Department of the company. (3) personal injury accident occurs, the direct punishment 500-1000, who is directly responsible for the accident responsibility, give notice of criticism and 50-100 economic sanctions against them. (4) to conceal the accident, reported without undue delay or false, to inform the 过前提我们要获得正确的市盈率。市盈率最好是低于公司净利润的增长率。比如一家公司的年均净利润增长率是30%，我们希望他的市盈率在30以下，最好不要超过30太多。 寻找低市盈率股票的 市盈率就是股价除以每股收益，他的值可以理解成收回投资需要的年数。比如一家上市公司的市盈率是30，如果该公司的年净利润一直保持不变的话，那么投资者需要30年才能收回他的投资。 在价值投资的始祖，格雷厄姆时代，寻找低市盈率的股票几乎就成了价值投资的代名词。那个年代，格雷厄姆对低市盈率股票的判断就是其市盈率低于8。不过随着时代的变化，这种方法用的比较少了，和格雷厄姆同时代的费雪，更倾向于投资于成长型的公司，当然，这种公司的市盈率就相对比较高了。 在《投资者的未来》这本里，西格尔已经了在统计的角度上，投资于低市盈率股票组合能够获得比投资于高市盈率股票组合更好的收益。看来，投资低市盈率股票也并没有过时。 用方法可以寻找低市盈率的股票。 1、使用鑫网通达信软件， 选择沪深A股，将所有的上证、深证的A股都列出来。 2、单击鼠标右键，选择股票排名–>市盈率排名，即可按照市盈率排名列出沪深A股。如下图所示: engineering construction and acceptance specification for 5 GB50275-98 compressor, fan and pump installation engineering construction and acceptance specification for lifting 6 HG20201-2000 construction installation engineering construction standard 7, HG ... Pressure gauges, using an installed spark arrestor for acetylene cylinders, illegal carrying, using gas cylinders, each operator fined 20 Yuan. Gas bottle without the hot sun exposure measures, responsibilities of team a fine of 50 Yuan. (7) at height and the opening and provisional protective measures have been taken, the responsible unit fined 200 Yuan, construction person in charge a fine of 50 Yuan. (8) no permit to work and the job in accordance with the provisions, on the job unit fined 300 yuan, the unit will charge a fine of 100 Yuan. 7.5.3 accident penalties (1) injuries fatalities directly punished 1~2 million. Direct responsibility for the accident and have the corresponding responsibility of leadership, such as concerning administrative sanctions, should be brought to the company or the relevant Department. (2) personal injury accident occurred, the direct punishment 0.5-10,000 yuan, responsible for the direct responsibility for the accident and the responsibility of leadership, such as concerning administrative sanctions should be dealt with by the personnel Department of the company. (3) personal injury accident occurs, the direct punishment 500-1000, who is directly responsible for the accident responsibility, give notice of criticism and 50-100 economic sanctions against them. (4) to conceal the accident, reported without undue delay or false, to inform the 注意，这种方法有很大的局限性，因为鑫网通达信软件计算的市盈率不是百分百 准确的。我在《市盈率计算误区之二》已经描述过。 所以这种方法得到的低市盈率股票列表仅仅只能作为参考。真希望通达信软件可 以把这个BUG改掉，这样就完美了。 engineering construction and acceptance specification for 5 GB50275-98 compressor, fan and pump installation engineering construction and acceptance specification for lifting 6 HG20201-2000 construction installation engineering construction standard 7, HG ... Pressure gauges, using an installed spark arrestor for acetylene cylinders, illegal carrying, using gas cylinders, each operator fined 20 Yuan. Gas bottle without the hot sun exposure measures, responsibilities of team a fine of 50 Yuan. (7) at height and the opening and provisional protective measures have been taken, the responsible unit fined 200 Yuan, construction person in charge a fine of 50 Yuan. (8) no permit to work and the job in accordance with the provisions, on the job unit fined 300 yuan, the unit will charge a fine of 100 Yuan. 7.5.3 accident penalties (1) injuries fatalities directly punished 1~2 million. Direct responsibility for the accident and have the corresponding responsibility of leadership, such as concerning administrative sanctions, should be brought to the company or the relevant Department. (2) personal injury accident occurred, the direct punishment 0.5-10,000 yuan, responsible for the direct responsibility for the accident and the responsibility of leadership, such as concerning administrative sanctions should be dealt with by the personnel Department of the company. (3) personal injury accident occurs, the direct punishment 500-1000, who is directly responsible for the accident responsibility, give notice of criticism and 50-100 economic sanctions against them. (4) to conceal the accident, reported without undue delay or false, to inform the