Dell

June 5, 2003 總類綜合 廠商動態-web only 焦點報告 DELL低成本經營模式與成功關鍵 要素剖析 所長 陳清文 DELL 2002年營收達 354億美元，在全球不景氣中逆勢高成長近 14%且淨利成長 70%， 因此被美國財富雜誌(Fortune)評選為全球第四名最受讚賞羨慕(Most Admired)的傑出公 司，也被美國《商業週刊》評選為 2002年全球前 50大營運表現最佳公司中的第 9名。 2003年第一季 DELL繼續高成長且後市看好。 DELL低成本競爭模式結構簡圖 ???? ?? ??? ??? ??? ???? ??? ???? ??????????? ???????? ???????? ?????? ?? ????? ??? ?????? ? ??????????? ????????? ??????IT?? ?????Internet?????? ??????????? ????????????? ??????????? Source：拓墣產業研究所，2003/06 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 2 DELL ?????????????????????????? ???????????????(????? 10%)???????? ???(????? 1%)?????????(CCC—Cash Conversion Cycle? 37?)????????????????????????? ? DELL????????? IT??????? DELL??????? ???????????????? 一. DELL營運績效領先全球 IT大廠 (一) DELL 八年長期投資報酬率領先群雄 Intel ????????? 1993~2001 ?? 8 ??????(ROIC-- Return on Invested Capital)?????????? IT??????DELL ? 65%??????????Intel? 30%?????IBM?? 9%?? ????????????DELL??????????(43%)???? ? DELL???????????? 圖一 全球主要廠商投資報酬率比較圖 Sources：Intel，2003/05 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 3 DELL ?????????????????????????? ??????????????(???? 10%)?????????? ?(????? 1%)?????????(CCC--Cash Conversion Cycle? 37?)?????????????????????????? DELL ????????? IT????? (二) DELL股價領先反彈並逐漸脫離谷底 2000???????????DELL??? 60????????? ? 2002? 10?? 18???????????? 2003? 5????? ? 31???????????????? 70%????????DELL ?????????????????? IT??? ??? 2003? 2?DELL?? 2002??????? 2002??DELL ????????????????????????DELL 2003?? ??????????????????????????????? ??????? DELL ???????????????DELL ??? ?? 800?????????? 35???????????????? ?????? DELL????????????? 圖二 DELL股價趨勢圖 Source：DELL，2003/05 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 4 二. 2002年是 DELL表現最傑出的一年 (一) DELL為 2002年全球前 50大營運表現最佳公司中的第 9名 DELL 2002 ?????? 14%????? 70%???????? (Fortune)??????????????(Most Admired)??????? ???????????? 2002 ???? 50 ?????????? 9 ??DELL 2003?????????????????? 2002???? ? 25%?????? 18%?? 95?????????? 35%? 23??? (二) DELL 2003年第一季電腦出貨量排名奪回世界第一 ?? Gartner ????? 2003 ??????????????? ??DELL ?????????????????????? 582 ?? ???? 16.9%??????????DELL???????????? ?????????????????????????????? 2003?????????????? 3,450???? 2002???? ???? 5.5%?????????????????SARS????? ?????????????????????? 2 ??????? ?HPQ???????????????EMEA??????????? ???? 表一 2003年第 1季全球個人電腦市場領導廠商出貨量排名（單位：千台） ??? 03Q1??? ??? 02Q1??? ??? ??? Dell 5,828.40 16.90% 4,687.00 14.30% 24.40% HPQ 5,375.90 15.60% 5,700.40 17.40% -5.70% IBM 1,869.80 5.40% 1,751.00 5.40% 6.80% ?? 1,241.20 3.60% 1,041.00 3.20% 19.20% NEC 1,162.70 3.40% 1,268.30 3.90% -8.30% ?? 18,992.10 55.10% 18,229.10 55.80% 4.20% ?? 34,470.10 100.00% 32,676.90 100.00% 5.50% 註：包括桌上電腦、筆記電腦、IA32伺服器。HPQ公司的資料中包含 Compaq。富士通加上 Fujitsu Siemens的出貨量後，排名全球第四。 Source：Gartner/Dataquest，2003/04 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 5 (三) DELL 2002年傑出表現的經營成果 1. 營收逆勢成長 13%而費用減少 12億美元 ? 2002 ????????????????????? IT ??? ??????????????????????????? DELL ? ??????????? DELL??? 1.4???????(????? ????) ?????????????? DELL FY 2003(2002? 2? ? 2003? 1??)??? FY2002? 312?????? 354?????? ?? 14%??????????????? 11%?DELL???? 14% ??????????? ?????(Operating Expenses)???DELL?????????? ???? 2000? 2001?????? 5,000???? FY2003????? ????? 12 ?????????????? FY2002 ? 11.9%?? FY2003 ? 9.9%??? DELL ?????????????????? ????FY2003 ????? 21 ????? FY2002 ? 12 ????? 75%?2002?? DELL?????????????? 圖三 DELL營收與費用變化趨勢圖 Source：DELL，2003/05 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 6 2. DELL 傲人的財務績效與操作能力 DELL? 2003? 5???????????(Spring Analyst Meting) ??? FY2003?????????????(DELL???????? ?????????????????)? ????????FY2003 DELL ???????? 21%(???? ???? 1%)?DELL????? 14%(??????? 11%)?DELL? ???(EPS)??? 23%(????? FY2002?? 7.4???????? ? 74%)?? FY2002? EPS 46?????? FY 2003? 80??? ???????????????????????DELL FY 2003 ?????????????????????????????(Gross Margin)???? 17.9%?? FY2002? 17.6%???????????? DELL FY2003?????????????????(Operating Margin) ??? 8%???? FY2002 ? 4.8%???????(Operating Income) ??? 28???? FY2002? 18????? 55%? ???????????Liquidity??DELL FY2003??????? ?????? 35????????????? 99?????????? ? DELL ??????????????????????DELL ?? ????(CCC—Cash Conversion Cycle)??? 37???? DELL??? ??????????? 37??DELL???????????(??? ??????)?? DELL??????????????? FY 2003 DELL?????????????? IT??????? ????????????????DELL?? 14%??? HPQ??? 11%?IBM??? 2%?SUN??? 13%??? DELL??????? ?????? DELL ????????? 2.3 ?????????HPQ ? IBM???? 1.9? 0.3?????? EPS?? DELL?????? ???????????????? DELL ???????????? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 7 ?????????????????????(CCC)???DELL?? 37?????????????? 圖四 DELL FY2003傲人的財務績效 Sources：DELL，2003/05 ????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????? DELL ??? ???????DELL?????????????????????? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 8 表二 DELL與主要競爭者財務績效比較表 Sources：DELL，2003/05 三. DELL低成本經營模式與關鍵成功要素 (一) 獨特的 DELL經營模式 1. DELL模式不同於Wal-Mart模式 ?? DELL????????????? DELL? IKEA?Wal-Mart ??????????????????? DELL???Wal-Mart?? ??????????????????Wal-Mart?????????? ??????? Michael Dell ????????? DELL?Wal-Mart?IKEA??? ??????????????????????????????? ??? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 9 (1) DELL研發製造比重高於銷售為主的Wal-Mart與 IKEA ? DELL?? 3,000???????????????DELL?? 850 ?????????????? DELL ?????????????? ??????????? (2) DELL以企業市場為主而Wal-Mart以消費者為主 DELL ????????????????????????? 90%??????Wal-Mart??????? 90%? (3) DELL沒店面沒庫存 ???????????????Wal-Mart ?????????? ? DELL??????????? ??????DELL ?????Wal-Mart??????????? ?? 2. 獨特成功的 DELL模式即將面臨嚴峻考驗 (1) DELL模式在美國近乎完美 ???????????????? DELL ?????????? ????DELL ?????????????????????? ?DELL??( DELL Busiess Model)?????????DELL???? ??????”--?????????????????????? IT? ?????????????????????Internet??????? ?????(?????)???(??????)????(?? internet?) ????????? DELL ??????????????????? ????? (2) DELL模式即將在中國與新戰場上面臨考驗 ?????? 350 ????????????????????? ??????????????????DELL ?????????? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 10 ?????????DELL ??????????????? DELL ? ?????????????????????????DELL ??? ?????? PC??????????????????? PC??? ??? 5.8%??????2002?? 4??????DELL?????? ??????? 72%?????????????????????? ????? 100%??????? DELL ????????????? Michael DELL???????????????? 3. DELL模型的五大特色 (1) 以最高效途徑親近客戶(Most Efficient Path to Customers) DELL ????????????????????????? ??DELL?????? 14??????????????????? ??????????????????????????????? ??DELL ?????????????????????????? ???????? DELL ?????????(Translate)?????? ?????????????????? (We believe that the most efficient path to the customer is through a direct relationship, with no intermediaries to add confusion and cost. We are organized around groups of customers with similar needs. This allows our teams to understand the specific needs of specific customers - without customer needs being "translated" by inefficient resellers and middlemen.) (2) 單一責任窗口(Single Point of Accountability) DELL?? IT??????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????? ???????????????????? DELL ?????????????????????????? ? IT????? DELL????????????????????? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 11 ?????????????????????????????DELL ?????????DELL ??????????????????? ??????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????? ??????????????? DELL?????? (We recognize that technology can be complex, so we work to keep things easy for our customers. We make Dell the single point of accountability so that resources necessary to meet customer needs can be easily marshaled in support of complex challenges. Our customers tell us they want streamlined and fast access to the right resources; direct provides just that.) (3) 堅持先出售，後生產 (亦即訂單生產) ?????(Build-to-Order)?DELL???? Internet?????? ??????????????産?? DELL ????????(DELL ??????????????????????????????? ??)?DELL ????????????? IT ?????????? DELL ???????????????????????????? ??????????? (We provide customers exactly what they want in their computer systems through easy custom configuration and ordering. Build-to-order means that we don't maintain months of aging and expensive inventory. As a result, we typically provide our customers with the best pricing and latest technology for features they really want.) (4) 低成本競爭領導地位(Low-Cost Leader) DELL ?????????????????????????? ??????????????????????(??? 6 Sigma)?? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 12 ???????????????????DELL ????????? ???????????????????????????? (We focus resources on what matters to our customers. With a highly efficient supply chain and manufacturing organization, a concentration on standards-based technology developed collaboratively with our industry partners, and a dedication to reducing costs through business process improvements, we consistently provide our customers with superior value.) (5) 一貫性採用標準性技術( Standards-Based Technology) DELL ?????????????????????????? ?????????????????????? IT???????? ???????????????????????? (We believe that standard technology is key to providing our customers with relevant, high-value products and services. Focusing on standards gives customers the benefit of extensive research and development from Dell and an entire industry - not from just a single company. Unlike proprietary technologies, standards give customers flexibility and choice.) (二) DELL的成功關鍵要素剖析 1. 產品線競爭力與領導地位不斷提升 (1) DELL各產品線競爭力與市占率逐年攀升 ??????????DELL??????????????DELL ?????????????????????DELL ??????? ??????????????????????????????? ?????????????????? DELL FY2003??????? ?????????????????????DELL FY2003???? ????????????FY2003 ??????????????? ???? DELL ??????????HPQ ? IBM ????? DELL ?????????????????? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 13 圖五 DELL出貨量市場佔有率逐年攀升 Sources：DELL，2003/05 (2) DELL在企業市場區隔持續高成長 2002?DELL?????????????????????DELL ????????????? 4,500 ?????????????? EMC???????????? 2,500????? DELL?????? ??????????????????? ???????DELL ????????? 77%???????? ??????? 26%???????? 12%????????DELL ? ?????????? 16%?? DELL????????????? ????????DELL ?????????????????? ?? 53%??? 14%????DELL ??????????????? ?? 9%?????????????DELL???????????? ?????????DELL ??????????????????? ???? 19%?? DELL????????????? DELL???? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 14 IT?????????????? 51%??????? DELL???? ???????????? 表三 DELL的業務區隔與營收變化 單位：百萬美元 ???? FY 2003 FY03 ??? FY 2002 FY 2001 ?????? 19,394 12% 17,275 18,969 ??????? 5,653 26% 4,485 3,902 ????? 25,047 15% 21,760 22,871 ????? 6,912 8% 6,429 6,398 ????? 3,445 16% 2,979 2,618 DELL??? 35,404 14% 31,168 31,888 ?????? 18,865 14% 16,516 16,874 ?????? 9,638 9% 8,829 9,237 ?????? 6,901 19% 5,823 5,771 DELL??? 35,404 14% 31,168 31,888 Source：DELL FY 2003 10K Report，拓墣產業研究所整理，2003/06 (3) DELL看好 PC長期發展並搶攻頂級 PC發燒友市場 ?????????????????? PC ????????? ?????????? PC???DELL???????????Michael Dell?? PC???? 20?????? 50%??? PC??????? ?????????????? Internet??? PC???? 200???? ???????????? DELL?????????????? Michael Dell???????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????? PC?????????? PC?????????????? DELL?? 2003? 4? 28?????????? PC???? 3D ??????? 3GHz PC-based????????????????? ? PC--Dimension XPS?????????????????????? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 15 ??? PC????????????????? 2,199??????? ??????????? TRI??? ?DELL?????? PC????????????????? ??????????????????DELL???????? PC ??? XPS??????????????? PC????????? ?? PC???????????????????? (4) DELL特別強化伺服器與群體伺服器區隔的攻擊力 ????????DELL ?????????????????? ?? DELL?????????????? 20%?? 2003??? DELL PC??? 17%????DELL?????????????????? ?????(Client)??????????DELL ?????????? ??????????????????????????????? ????DELL ??????????? 30%??????????? 10%???????????????? DELL ?????????? ??? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 16 圖六 DELL在伺服器市占率高於終端個人電腦 Sources：DELL，2003/05 DELL ?????????????????? (Cluster of Standard-based Servers)????????????????????? ????(Data Center)?????????????????????? ??????????? 10%???????? DELL??????? ?????????? 2. 優越的低成本結構 DELL???????? IT????????????????? ????2002? DELL???????operation cost???? 350??? ?? 10%??? HPQ? 21%?Gateway? 25%?????? 46%??? ????????????????????????????? IT ? ??????????????????????????????? ?? DELL????????? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 17 (1) 以直銷為主軸的供應鏈具最低成本優勢 DELL????????????????DELL???????? ???????????????????DELL?????????? ??????????????????????????????? ???????? DELL????????????? DELL ? 10%? ?????????????? 5%??? DELL?????????? 15%??????? 圖七 DELL的低成本結構優勢 Sources：DELL，2003/05 (2) 運用 6 Sigma精神從事低投入高產出的 R&D DELL ???????(R&D)?? 5 ????????? 1.5%?? IBM ????? 10%???????????????????DELL ?? R&D??DELL???????Michael Dell?? DELL?? R&D ????????????????????? DELL? R&D?? 6%? DELL? 3,000?????????????????? 850????? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 18 ????????Michael Dell????DELL R&D??????? IT ????????? DELL??????? R&D????????????????? ???DELL ?? 6 Sigma ???????????????(Critical Quality Characteristics for Customer)???????????????? ?????????????????????????DELL ??? ????????? R&D??????(Dell’s product development efforts are focused on designing and developing standards-based, competitively priced products that incorporate the technologies and features that Dell believes are most desired by its customers.) ???Michael Dell???????????(Power Adaptor)??? ??????????????????????? IT??????? ??????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????? IT????? ??????????????????????????????? ?????????? DELL ?????????????????? ???????? DELL?? R&D?????? 3. 傑出的逆差式【財務操作模式】 DELL ?????????????????????????? ??DELL???????????????????????DELL? ??????????????????????????????? ????????DELL ???????????????????? ??????????????DELL ?????????????? ??????????????????? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 19 (1) 縮短客戶付款期限 ??????????????DELL ???????????? ???????(DSO—Days Sales Outstanding)?? FY 2001? 32?? ?? FY 2003? 28??DSO???????????? 24????? ? 4?????(in-trasit Shipment)? (2) 發揮即時供應能力邁向零庫存 DELL ??????????????? (DSI--Days Supply in Inventory)? 3??FY 2002? FY2001??? 4?? 5???? DELL ?????????????????????????????? (3) 將財務風險與負擔分散給上游供應商 DELL ???????????? (DPO—Days of payable Outstanding)?? 68???? FY 2002?? 1???? DELL???? ????????????????????????????????? (4) DELL現金水位大幅提高 ???????????DELL FY 2003??????(CCC—Cash Conversion Cycle , CCC=DSO+DSI?DPO )????DELL?????? 37??DELL?????????????????????? 37?? ??????? DELL?????????????? 99???? 表四 DELL的逆差式財務操作模式與成果 FY 2003 FY 2002 FY 2001 ??????(DSO) 28? 29? 32? ????(DSI) 3? 4? 5? ??????(DPO) 68? 69? 58? ??????(CCC) (37?) (36?) (21?) ??????? 99??? 83??? 78??? 註：Cash Conversion Cycle( CCC )= DSO + DSI - DPO - Days Sales Outstanding(DSO) plus Days Supply in Inventory (DSI)minus Days of Payables Outstanding(DPO). This metric shows how fast 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 20 purchased materials and other inputs are turned into cash vs. how quickly cash is disbursed to pay for those materials and inputs. Source：DELL 公司 FY 2003 10K Report，拓墣產業研究所整理，2003/06 4. 大幅擴展國際市場並獲致甜美果實 2000??????????????????? DELL????? ????????????? 2000?? DELL??????????? ????????? 2002???????????????????? 5.8%? 10%?DELL????????? 32%(??? DELL????? ? 2%)??????????????? 9.4%?DELL??????? ?????????????????????????????? ???? DELL?????????????????????? DELL 2002???????????????? 70%?????? ????? 30%??? DELL?? 354???????? 5??? 600 ??????????????????????????????? ??????? DELL ????????????????????? ???????DELL??????????????????? DELL ????????DELL ???????????????????? ???? ?? 2003??????????????? PC????? DELL ??????????DELL ?????????????????? ??????????????????????????????? ????????? ???????? DELL ?????????????????? Internet???????????????????????????? DELL ??????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????? IT ???? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 21 ?????????????????????DELL ??????? ???????????????????????????DELL ? ????????????????? 圖八 DELL在國際市場競爭地位逐年提高 Sources：DELL，2003/05 5. 獨特的客戶服務經驗(Customer Experience) DELL ?????????????????????? DELL ? ??????????????( Focus on Customer Experience)???? ???爲?DELL ??????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????? DELL ?????????????????????????? ???????DELL?????????????????????? ????????????????(DELL ???? 6 Sigma ??--100 ???????? 3????)??????????????(???? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 22 ????????????????)??????????????? ???DELL ????????????????????????? ???( DELL’s Customer Experience?We've always known that volume and market-share numbers are expressions of customer experience and satisfaction. We regularly assess ourselves against a broad range of customer-focused measures, including the timeliness with which we deliver built-to-order systems, the reliability with which they perform, and the speed and quality of service and support. ) DELL ?????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????DELL ? ????????????????????????????? ??????Michael Dell?????????????????? ??????????????????????????????? ???? DELL ???????????????????????? ??????? ?????爲?DELL ??????????????????? ??????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????啓????? ????????DELL ???????爲???????? DELL ? ??爲?????? ????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????? ??????????? 1,600 ????????????????? ????????????????? DELL???? 3?????? ??????????????????? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 23 四. 總結 DELL ?????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????? DELL ? ????????????? 圖九 DELL低成本競爭模式結構簡圖 ???? ?? ??? ??? ??? ???? ??? ???? ??????????? ???????? ???????? ?????? ?? ????? ??? ?????? ? ??????????? ????????? ??????IT?? ?????Internet?????? ??????????? ????????????? ??????????? Source：拓墣產業研究所，2003/06 1. DELL????????????????????????? (??????????)????????????????? ???????????????????????????? ? 14???? 2. DELL????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????? ?????? IT?????DELL?????????? 354? ?????? 600?????? TRI??????? DELL?? 600???????????? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告 June 5 , 2003 DELL 低成本經營模式與成功關鍵要素剖析 24 3. DELL?????????? Internet??????????? ???????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????? ?? 4. DELL????????????????????????? ???DELL??????????????????????? DELL????????????????????????? ??????????????DELL??????????? ???????????????????????DELL?? ???????????????????? 拓墣產業研究所焦點報告《週報》 發行人；陳清文 發行所：拓墣科技股份有限公司 發行地址：104台北市中山北路二段 44號 12樓 中華郵政北台字第 7260號執照登記為雜誌交寄 客服電話：02-2511-5531 傳真：02-2511-6768 網址：http://www.topology.com.tw 著作權所有，非經本所同意，不得翻印或轉載