人民币升值对中国经济的影响(英文版)

InternationalFinanceEffectsofRMBAppreciationontheChineseeconomicNAME：CHENSISISTUDENTNUMBER：GBX1307JOSAIUNIVERSITYEffectsofRMBAppreciationontheChineseeconomicSince2002,manycountrieslikeJapanandAmericahavesuggestedthatRenminbi(RMB)shouldincreaseinvalue.Infact,theexchangerateofRMBbecamehigherandhigherinrecentyears.Theexchangeratewasbeyond8in2005.butthisyear,Itisonlyabout6.TheappreciationoftheRMBexchangerateandthecorrespondingimpactonchina’seconomyarebecomingthefocusissuesofinternationaleconomy,andalsohasbecomethemajortheoreticalandpracticalissuesforChinatodealwiththeincreasinglycomplexinternationaleconomicsituationwhichmustbefacedupto.Ithasbecomeahottopicovertheworld.RMBappreciationaffectstheChineseeconomyandthelivesofChinesepeople.Doesithaveagoodeffectornot?Onthis,theUnitedStates'40-yearhistoryofpressuringJapantolettheyenappreciateagainstthedollarisinstructive.SoforRMBappreciation,weshouldlearnthelessonsofhistoryandcorrectlyassesstheprosandconsofRMBappreciation.RMBappreciationislikeadouble-edgedsword;ononehand,ithasapositiveeffectontheChineseEconomy.Ontheotherhand，itwillhaveanegativeimpact.SoIthinkit'sverynecessarytodiscussthematterofRMBappreciation.TheimpactsontheeconomyofChinaThepositiveimpactontheeconomyofRMBAppreciation1.1.1TheappreciationoftheRMBwillincreaseourpersonalwealthbenefitingthepeopleandimprovingpeople'slivingstandards.AppreciationoftheRMBimprovedtermsoftradethatitwillmakeimportedproductsrelativelycheaper.Withthecontinuouseconomicdevelopmentandpeople'srisinglivingstandards,moreandmorepeoplelikevacations,tourismoreducationabroad.AftertherevaluationoftheRMB,tostudyortravelabroadwillspendlessmoneythanbeforeorwillbeabletodomorethingsthaneverbeforewiththesamemoney.JustasArgentine,theytraveledallovertheworldaftertheappreciationofthePeso(Argentinecurrency)in80'slastcentury,becausetheybecome"therichcountriesoftheSouth".Furthermore,Chinesepeoplewillfeelricherasthevalueoftheirmoneygrowsandfurtherstimulatesdomesticdemand.OfgreaterstrategicsignificanceisthefactthattheappreciationoftheRMBwillmaketheChineselaborpricehigher.1.1.2Itishelpfultoreduceburdenofthedebt.Sincetheimplementofreformandopeningpolicy,Chinahasborrowedalotofforeigndebtinordertoaccelerateeconomicdevelopment.AccordingtodatapublishedbytheStateAdministrationofForeignExchange,China'sforeigndebtreached374.66billiondollarsattheendof2008,anincreaseof18%.AfterRMBappreciation,theoutstandingexternaldebtservicingwillberequiredtopresentacorrespondingreductioninthenumberofRMB,easingthepressureonChina'sforeigndebttoacertainextent.TheappreciationofRMBsurelymakesforeigncurrency-denominateddebtshrink,accordinglyreducingdebtburdenofthegovernmentandenterprises.1.1.3TheappreciationoftheRMBwillconducivetoaccelerateindustrialupgradingandimprovetheeconomicstructureinthelongrun.TheappreciationoftheRMBmeansthatthepriceofvariousdomesticresources,especiallylandandlabor,willgoupinrelativetermsandthiswillspeedupnecessaryadjustmentstothecommoditymixanddomesticindustry.SotheRMBappreciationwillbebondtotriggeranupgradingorconversionoftheindustrialstructure.Moreandmoredomesticenterpriseswilltrytofocusdomesticproductiononmorehigh-valueaddedcommodities.Thusoneofthelong-termdesirableeffectonChinaeconomyiswhattheappreciationofRMBwillmadeChinaamoreadvancedorhigh-valueaddedeconomyandamorereasonableindustrialstructure.1.1.4TheappreciationoftheRMBwilloptimizetheexporttradestructureandexpanddomesticdemand.RMBappreciationwillbedisadvantageoustothelabor-intensiveexportproducts.Butinthelongrun,RMBappreciationwillspurexportcompaniestorelymoreontechnologicalprogressandincreaseofproductsadded-value.Someenterpriseswhichrelyonlow-costcompetitionwithlow-tech,highpollutionandhighenergy-consumingwillbesqueezedoutoftheinternationalmarket.AccordinglytheRMBappreciationwillhelptoenhanceChina'sexporttradestructure.1.1.5TheappreciationoftheRMBwillpromoteenterprisestoperfecttheirmanagement,enhancethecapabilityofindependentinnovationandimproveinternationalcompetitivenessandrisk-resistingability.UnderthecircumstanceoftheRMBappreciation,theenterprisescannotsucceedintheinternationalmarketiftheydon’tcutthecostoftheirproducts.Thefeasiblewaytocutthecostoftheirproductsshouldbetakenareenhancemanagement,improveproductivityinordertoenhancecompetitiveness.Atthesametime,thereformofRMBexchangerateregimerequiresexportcompaniescontinuetodevelophigh-techandhighvalue-addedproducts.1.1.6WiththeadjustmentoftheRMBexchangerate,thepricesofChina'sexportproductswillcertainlyrise.AlthoughitcannotsolvethoroughlytradesurplusofSino-UStrade,itwillservetoeasethetradefrictionswiththeUnitedStates,Japanandothermajortradingpartners.ItwouldshowtradingpartnersthatChinaisnotattemptingtomanipulateitsexchangerate,therebylesseningthethreatofprotectionistmeasuresagainstChina'sexports.1.2ThenegativeinfluenceontheeconomyofRMBAppreciationNowChinaisthemostpopulouscountryandthefifth-largesttradingcountryintheworld.AlthoughevidenceshaveshownthattheRMBisindeedundervaluedandappreciationwouldnotbesufficienttoweakenthecompetitivepoweroftheeconomy,theappreciationofRMBwillbringaboutsomenegativeinfluencesonChineseeconomy.1.2.1TheappreciationofRMBwillreduceChina’sexportandincreasesitsimport,furtheraffecttheeconomicgrowthgoals.AnumberofindustriesinChinaarestillinthelabor-intensivemodeofproduction.Theexpansionofexportsrelaymainlyonpricecompetitiveness.AfterthecontinuousappreciationofRMB,China'scommodityexportrelativepricescouldriseandthecomparativelycompetitivepowerscomefromthosecouldtobeweakened,resultinginexportreduce.Meanwhile,thepriceofimportcommoditiesinChinesecurrencycoulddropandstimulateimporttoincrease.Asaresult,anappreciationofRMBcouldcutChina’scurrentaccountsurplus,anditwillcrimpChina’sgrowth.1.2.2Damagetobasicindustrieslackofcompetitiveness.InChinadifferentindustrieshavedifferentendurancestotheshocksofRMBappreciation.WiththeappreciationoftheRMB,thepriceofChina'slabor-intensiveexportscorrespondingincrease.Therebythisundoubtedlywillmakethekindsofindustriessuchastheagriculturesectorandautomobilesectorwhichmaybeeasilyaffectedbyarevaluationsufferenormous.SoiftheRMBissharplyappreciated,itwillaffecttheChina’snoncompetitiveagriculturesectorandstate-ownedenterprises(SOEs).Inaddition,theappreciationoftheRMBwouldbeharmtoChina'ssomestrategicindustries.1.2.3Deterioratingdomesticjobsituationandincreasinglaborpressure.Fullemployment,pricestabilityandthebalanceofinternationalpaymentsistheworld'scountriescommonobjectives.EspeciallyfullemploymentisthemostproblemthegovernmentconcernedinChina.Currently,cheaplaborcostshavebeenservedasthebiggestcontributiontotheChina’ssurgingexports.WiththeappreciationofRMB,thecheaplaboradvantageofChinawillbechallenged.TheappreciationoftheRMBwouldlosemillionsofjobsinChina,andworsetheChina’salreadygrimemploymentsituation.Thismightmaketheunemploymentproblemmoreseriousandmayevenleadtoeconomic(andpolitical)instability.1.2.4SufferedthelossofChina'sforeignexchangereserves.Bytheendof2007,China'sforeignexchangereserveshavereached15282billiondollars.IftheappreciationofRMBistodollar-denominatedforeignexchange,foreignexchangereserveswillbeshrinking.Chinawillsufferhugeforeignexchangelosses.AdequateforeignexchangereservesareanimportantsignthatChina'seconomicstrengthhasbeencontinuouslystrengthened.ItisalsoapowerfulguaranteeforChinatoparticipateinglobaleconomy.However,oncetheRMBappreciation,China'shugeforeignexchangereserveswillfacethepossibilityofshrinking.2.Japan’sexperienceandlessonsforChinaThesecircumstancesChinanowfacesaresimilartoJapan'ssituationatthetimeoftheNixonShock.JapanexperiencedasharpappreciationoftheYenwhichledtotheeconomicbubbleinthelate1980sandthenunderwentalongrecession(the“lostdecade”).ThereisworryaboutiftheRMBissharplyappreciatedforaveryshortperiod,ChinamighttaketheoldroadofrecessionthatJapanexperienced.2.1ExperienceofappreciationofJapanYenMorethan30yearsago,theYenappreciatedallthewayfrom¥360:$US1inAugust1971to¥80:$US1inApril1995.TheovervaluedYen,however,destabilizedtheJapanesefinancialsystem,thebubbleeconomyofthelate1980swasfollowedbyadeflationaryslumpandazero-interestliquiditytrapinthe1990s.Japansufferedfromitsexchangerateappreciationseriously.Facingtheupwardpressureontheyen’sappreciation,Japantriedtostabilizetheexchangerateandmaintainapeggedratesystem.Initially,JapanintervenedintheforeignexchangemarkettosellYenandbuydollars.Then,inordertooffsettheadverseimpactoftheappreciationoneconomicactivities,JapaneseMonetaryauthoritiesadoptedaloosemonetarypolicytostimulatetheeconomyandreducethetradesurplus.Thustheincreasingmoneysupplyandmassiveinterventionsintheforeignexchangemarketgaverisetoexcessiveliquidity,whichwaschanneledintostockandrealestatemarkets.Consequentlythe“economicbubble”wasfollowedinthelate1980sandafterthecollapseofthebubble,Japanenteredaprolongedrecession.2.2ThelessonsofJapan’sexperienceandtheapocalypseforChinaAsdescribedabove,theseperiodsaresomewhatsimilartotherecenteconomicsituationChinafaced,justasJapanwasintheearly1970sandthemid-1980s.SowhatistheapocalypseshouldChinalearnfromJapan'sexperience?ThelessonsofJapan’sexperienceandtheapocalypseforChinamainlymaybeasfollow.1.TodealwiththeYenappreciation,therewasstrongoppositionorconcernaboutthepossibleadverseimpactsofasharpappreciationoftheYeninJapan.InsteadoftakingtheinitiativetoresponsetotheYenappreciation,thepassiveYenappreciationresultedJapaninsinkingintobeingforcedtosigntheagreementof"PlazaAccord"whichledtoJapaneseeconomicbubbleinlateof1980.ItisimportantandconsiderableforChinatotaketheinitiativetoresponsetotheRMBappreciationtoavoidtheRMBfluctuateviolentlywhichJapanhasexperiencedlastcenturyunderthe"PlazaAccord".2.Duetoseriousconcernaboutthenegativeimpactofitsappreciationontheeconomy,JapanauthoritybelievedthatoneoftheprincipalgoalsofmonetarypolicywastostabilizetheexchangerateandtrytolightenthepressureofYenappreciationasmuchaspossiblebyadoptingaloosemonetarypolicy.Thisresultedinthatthemonetarypolicywasexcessivelyloose.Itcouldcreateazero-interestliquiditytrapinfinancialmarketsthatleavesthecentralbankhelplesstocombatfuturedeflationarisingoutofactualcurrencyappreciationasintheearlierexperienceofJapan.ThissuppressedJapanesemonetaryauthorities'capacitytoimplementeffectivemonetarypolicy.Whilepolicymakersseemedtobeawarethattheloosemonetarypolicymightbeexcessiveandtriedtotightenit,itinevitablyresultedintheprolongedeconomicrecession.Theprinciplesaysaneconomycannotsimultaneouslymaintainafixedexchangerate,freecapitalmovement,andanindependentmonetarypolicy.Unfortunately,Chinahasnottakenadvantageofthislessonandinrecentyearshasallowedasimilarsituationtoarise.Inflationarypressure,especiallyinrealestate,hasbeenincreasinginrecentyearsinChina.YiGangwarnedthatalargeeconomylikeChinacannotgiveuptheindependenceofmonetarypolicy.SoitisanimportantprincipletosticktotheindependenceofmonetarypolicyforChinatodealwiththeRMBappreciation.3.ConclusionRMBappreciationwillhaveaprofoundimpactnotonlyonChina'seconomybutalsoontheregionaleconomyandtheworldeconomy.FacingtheincreasingpressureofRMBappreciationfrominternalandexternal,ChinashouldmaintaintheRMBexchangeratebasicallystable,atthesametime,effectivemeasuresshouldbetakentoresponsetotheBMBappreciationfromthecurrentandlong-termperspective.ProvidingChinamishandlestheRMBappreciation,itwillsufferaslowdownineconomicgrowthincludingimportsandeventuallydeflation,withnopredictableeffectonitstradesurplus–aswithJapanfromthe1970stothemid-1990s.Chinashouldembracethenewopportunitiesthatappreciationhasopened-upandallowmoreroomforthenationaleconomytogrowintheprocessofglobalization.Reference:Alan,M.TayloryMarkP.Taylor(2004)ThePurchasingPowerParityDebate.NBERWorkingPaperNo.10607Krueger,A.(2005)ChinaandtheGlobalEconomicRecovery.AKeynoteAddressattheAmericanEnterpriseInstituteSeminar,Washington,D.C,2005.01.10Kwan,C.H.(2008)China’sTransitiontoaFreelyFloatingExchangeRateSystem–LessonsfromJapan’sExperience.Ogawa,E.&Sakane,M.(2006)ChineseYuanafterChineseexchangeratesystemreform.China&WorldEconomy/39–57,Vol.14,No.6,2006Paul,S.L.YIP,(2007)China’sexchanderatesystemreform.TheSingaporeEconomicReview,Vol.52,No.3363–402Chen,F.X.(2006)TheimpactofRMBappreciation,People'sDailyOnline,http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200611/22/eng20061122_324127.html