ita_methodology_2007_e

Note: Concepts and ideas within this document, the CISC Integrated Th reat Assessment Methodology, are gathered from a wide variety of law enforcement and intelligence agencies, academic publications and open source research, both domestic and international as well as CISC Central and Provincial Bureau best practices. Th ese techniques and ideas are intended as a resource for the broader intelligence community as well as individuals involved in the integrated threat assessment process. For more information on the sources of information within this document, see the selected bibliography. Th is document is a work in process which will be updated as the CISC integrated threat assessment process evolves. Integrated Threat Assessment Methodology Criminal Intelligence Service Canada Version 1.0 Criminal Intelligence Service Canada CISC Integrated Threat Assessment Methodology Inquiries on this publication should be directed to: Director General, Criminal Intelligence Service Canada 1200 Vanier Parkway Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0R2 Canada © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, (2007) Th e integrated threat assessment process has its origins in the production of the fi rst National Th reat Assessment on Organized and Serious Crime in Canada produced by CISC Central Bureau in 2003. In 2004, the process became truly integrated, resulting in a national collection plan process and national- level working group meetings dedicated to establishing analytical standards for the assessments. Continuing to build upon the foundation of previous threat assessments, both provincial and national, in 2005 Central Bureau focused on the overall threat to Canada posed by each criminal market in terms of its scope and magnitude and, in particular, the dynamics of organized crime groups’ involvement within these markets. In 2007, Central Bureau will contribute further to the decision-making of senior law enforcement by identifying signifi cant criminal threats as part of the coordinated enforcement targeting process to determine organized crime priorities. Th is process, part of the Canadian Law Enforcement Strategy to Combat Organized Crime, was developed by the Canadian Association of Chiefs of Police in cooperation with CISC. As the threat assessment process has evolved over fi ve years, there emerged a need to formalize the processes and protocols that make up its foundation as an integral part of the Canadian Criminal Intelligence Model. Th e methodology presented in this paper is the fi rst step in gathering together key techniques, tools and common practices currently used or of emerging interest in the integrated threat assessment process. Th e integrated threat assessment process continues to be a work in progress and will continue to evolve through practice. Foreword 3Integrated Threat Assessment Methodology CISC About Criminal Intelligence Service Canada .................................................................... 4 Central Bureau Products and Services ............................................................................... 4 Strategic Intelligence Analytical Products .............................................................. 5 Th ree-Module Struture ..................................................................................................... 6 National Th reat Assessment Structure ............................................................................... 7 Criminal Group Inventory Matrix .................................................................................... 8 Measuring Levels of Knowledge ....................................................................................... 9 Harms from Organized and Serious Crime .................................................................... 10 Business Rules ................................................................................................................. 11 Flowchart of Integrated Th reat Assessment Process ........................................................ 13 Words of Estimative Probability...................................................................................... 14 Canadian Criminal Intelligence Model ........................................................................... 15 Terminology .................................................................................................................... 16 Selected Bibliography ...................................................................................................... 28 Table of Contents Unclassified 4 Integrated Threat Assessment MethodologyCISC About Criminal Intelligence Service Canada CISC is the voice of the Canadian criminal intelligence community. As such, it is in a unique position to provide strategic intelligence on organized and serious crime in Canada to senior law enforcement management and designated government departments. Structure Established in 1970, CISC unites the Canadian criminal intelligence community by providing leadership and expertise to CISC member agencies. CISC consists of a Central Bureau in Ottawa and ten Provincial Bureaus across Canada. Th e Central Bureau liaises with and collects information and intelligence from the Provincial Bureaus which operate independently while maintaining common service delivery standards. Membership and Governance CISC has three categories of membership. Category 1 is restricted to police agencies that have full police authority provided under a Canadian federal or provincial police act. Category 2 membership may be granted to those agencies that have a limited law enforcement responsibility that grants them an authority under a specifi c federal and/or provincial legislation (e.g. Customs Act, Provincial Wildlife Act). Category 3 membership may be granted to an agency that does not have a direct law enforcement authority but provides assistance to law enforcement agencies. Th e CISC National Executive Committee is the governing body for CISC. It is chaired by the Commissioner of the RCMP and is comprised of 24 leaders from Canada’s law enforcement community. Central Bureau Products and Services ACIIS ACIIS, the Automated Criminal Intelligence Information System, is the Canadian law enforcement community’s national online database for criminal intelligence and information on organized and serious crime and is only accessible to law enforcement. Criminal Intelligence Training CISC sponsors criminal intelligence courses every year, which are held in several locations across the country. Th ese courses off er training to CISC member agency personnel in various criminal intelligence functions. National Criminal Intelligence Requirements, Collection and Liaison Program & Strategic Analytical Services Th e Central Bureau’s National Criminal Intelligence Requirements and Collection Program collects and monitors information and intelligence on the organized crime groups and their involvement within criminal markets. CISC Central Bureau’s Strategic Analytical Services is responsible for the production of various strategic intelligence 5Integrated Threat Assessment Methodology CISC products. Strategic Analytical Services also designed, developed and implemented a ‘strategic early warning’ methodology and system to enhance current law enforcement practices with a proactive approach to crime control and prevention. Strategic Intelligence Analytical Products CISC Central Bureau produces the following strategic intelligence analytical products: National Th reat Assessment on Organized and Serious Crime in Canada: Th e annual CISC National Th reat Assessment assists informed decision making by senior law enforcement leaders as well as providing an overarching evaluation of organized criminality nationally for the Canadian criminal intelligence community. In 2007, Central Bureau will also identify signifi cant criminal threats as an integral component of the coordinated enforcement targeting process to determine organized crime priorities. Th is process, part of the Canadian Law Enforcement Strategy to Combat Organized Crime, was developed by the Canadian Association of Chiefs of Police in cooperation with CISC. National Criminal Intelligence Estimate on Organized and Serious Crime in Canada: Th e primary aim of this report is to provide an overview of organized and serious crime threats in Canada to enable informed decision making for senior government offi cials. Annual Report on Organized Crime in Canada: Th is report, the only national public report on organized crime by law enforcement, is published to inform and educate the public on the eff ects of organized crime as it aff ects every community and region in Canada. Th is report is available at www.cisc.gc.ca. Strategic Intelligence Th reat Assessments: CISC periodically produces in-depth threat assessments on specifi c law enforcement issues and/or threats. Strategic Intelligence Briefs: Th ese reports are intended to provide CISC member agencies with shorter strategic analytical intelligence products on organized crime issues aff ecting Canada. Unclassifi ed versions of these reports will be posted on the internet as available. Strategic Intelligence Précis: Th is product line provides an executive summary of key fi ndings, judgements and forecasts from products such as the National Th reat Assessment or National Criminal Intelligence Estimate. Sentinel Watch List and Strategic Early Warning Assessments (Sentinel): Th e Sentinel Watch List, produced quarterly, highlights a selection of future threat scenarios that could have repercussions for the Canadian law enforcement community in the coming months and years. Th e Sentinel is a product line that provides strategic early warning assessments of criminal threats and developments from within Canada and internationally. Unclassified 6 Integrated Threat Assessment MethodologyCISC In 2003, at the beginning of the integrated threat assessment process, the Central & Provincial Bureaus started to establish consistent format & processes for the annual integrated provincial threat assessments (PTAs). In December 2004, the Provincial Bureaus agreed to adopt the three-module structure for their PTAs. Th is template ensures a consistent approach nationally to assessing organized crime and also facilitates comparisons between provinces. Module I – Strategic Threat Assessment • Th is module is completed by both the Provincial and Central Bureaus. • Components of this module can include: Environmental scan or drivers Linkages – legitimate or criminal Organized crime groups (threats, capabilities, vulnerabilities & trends) Criminal markets (scope, magnitude, dynamics & trends) Criminal harms Forecasts Recommendations Module II – Organized Crime Group Inventory • Provincial Bureaus complete group inventories on all or a specifi c number of signifi cant criminal groups operating within their respective province. • A group inventory template has been shared with all Provincial Bureaus to be used as a common framework. • Central Bureau completes a national, strategic group inventory in order to determine signifi cant, inter-provincial, national and international-level criminal threats. • Components of this module can include: Group name and size Group structure Group associations Sleipnir matrix Business associations Money laundering Recent law enforcement eff orts Sources of support Criminal activities (known/suspected) Ports of entry Module III – Tactical Profiles of Organized Crime Groups or Individuals • Th is module links the integrated threat assessments to the coordinated enforcement targeting process that determines intelligence and enforcement targets. • Th e tactical profi les contain target-specifi c intelligence on groups or individuals engaged in organized and serious crime. • Components of this module can include: Personal data Criminal history and roles Position and infl uence (reputation) Finances Capabilities (expertise and skills) Vulnerabilities and opportunities Three-Module Structure 7Integrated Threat Assessment Methodology CISC Th e format of CISC Central Bureau’s National Th reat Assessment is complementary with the three-module approach of the integrated provincial threat assessments. Module I provides strategic assessments of criminal markets and signifi cant criminal groups. In 2006, Central Bureau adopted Modules II and III to determine and classify signifi cant criminal threats within an organized crime group inventory. Module I: Strategic Criminal Market Assessment A: Key Findings B: Drivers: International Environment and Criminality in Canada C: Harms and Criminal Markets (Economic, Social & Political) D: Criminal Markets Elements of each criminal sub-market is assessed with a focus on common themes that could include scope, magnitude, legitimate and criminal linkages as well as trends occurring on a national or international scale. Illicit Drugs Financial Crime Contraband • cocaine (crack cocaine) • mass marketing fraud • fi rearms • ecstasy • payment card fraud • tobacco • heroin • mortgage fraud • intellectual property rights • marihuana • securities fraud • humans as commodity • methamphetamine • money laundering • vehicle theft Module II: Strategic Criminal Group Assessment E: Analysis Each criminal group identifi ed in the integrated provincial threat assessments is classifi ed into threat categories based on the group’s criminal scope (international, international (cross-border), inter-provincial, intra-provincial or local) as well as the relative magnitude of the group’s criminal roles or activities. Module III: Profiles of Organized Crime Groups (Inter- provincial, National and International-level Threats) F: Analysis CISC Central Bureau assesses key criminal groups that pose higher-level threats with criminal scopes at the inter-provincial, national and international levels. H: Appendices a) Defi nitions b) Methodology G: Assessment Evaluation Form National Threat Assessment Structure 8 Integrated Threat Assessment MethodologyCISC C ri m in a l G ro u p I n ve n to ry M a tr ix (as to be us ed by C IS C Ce nt ral B ure au in th e N ati on al Th rea t A sse ssm en t) G ro u p N a m e C a te g o ry P ro vi n ce o r te rr it o ry (B ase of ope rat ion s) C it y M a rk e t - g e n e ra l M a rk e t – su b ca te g o ry C ri m in a l ro le s M o n e y la u n d e ri n g C ri m in a l sc o p e Sl e ip n ir sc o re SM IT H et al. In de pe nd en t (IN D) B. C. Va nc ou ve r Ill ici t d ru gs Ill ici t d ru gs Ill ici t d ru gs Ill ici t d ru gs Ill ici t d ru gs Ill ici t d ru gs Fin an cia l c rim e Co cai ne Co cai ne M ari hu an a M ari hu an a M ari hu an a Pr ecu rso rs M or tga ge fr au d Im po rte r Fin an cie r M an ufa ctu rer Tr an sp or ter Tr an sp or ter Im po rte r Op era tiv e La un de rin g th rou gh st oc k ma rke t, r ea l est ate & m on ey ser vic e b us ine sse s In ter na tio na l In ter na tio na l In tra -p rov inc ial In ter -p rov inc ial Cr os s-b ord er In ter na tio na l In tra -p rov inc ial 57 6 LE E et al. As ian org an ize d cri me (A OC ) On tar io To ron to Ill ici t d ru gs Ill ici t d ru gs Ill ici t d ru gs Ill eg al ga mi ng In tel lec tua l pro pe rty ri gh ts cri me Ec sta sy Ec sta sy Co cai ne Ill eg al ga mi ng Co un ter fei t go od s M an ufa ctu rer W ho les ale dis tri bu tio n W ho les ale dis tri bu tio n Op era tiv e W ho les ale dis tri bu tio n La un de rin g th rou gh co mm erc ial rea l e sta te in Ca na da & U .S. , alt ern ati ve rem itt an ce sys tem s In tra -p rov inc ial Cr os s-b ord er In tra -p rov inc ial In tra -p rov inc ial In tra -p rov inc ial 52 4 DR AG ON KI DZ St ree t g an g (S G) Al be rta Ca lga ry Ill ici t d ru gs Ill ici t d ru gs Fin an cia l c rim e Cr ack co cai ne M ari hu an a Pa ym en t c ard s Re tai l-l ev el dis tri bu tio n Re tai l-l ev el dis tri bu tio n Re tai l-l ev el dis tri bu tio n No la un de rin g de tec ted . Lo cal Lo cal Lo cal 36 9 M OR TO N et al. In de pe nd en t (IN D) Qu eb ec Qu eb ec Ci ty Fin an cia l C rim e Fin an cia l C rim e Se cu rit ies fr au d M ass m ark eti ng fra ud Se rvi ce pro vid er Fa cil ita tor / bro ke r La un de rin g th rou gh st oc k ma rke t In ter na tio na l In ter na tio na l 52 8 U n cl a ss if ie d – I n fo rm a ti o n i s fi ct io n a l a n d i s fo r p re se n ta ti o n u se o n ly 9Integrated Threat Assessment Methodology CISC M e a su ri n g L e ve ls o f K n o w le d g e (as to be us ed by C IS C Ce nt ral B ure au ) C ri m in a l m a rk e t St a te m e n t o f k n o w le d g e As ses s c om po ne nt s o f m ar ke t s ub ca te go ry , ex im po rt at io n / e xp or ta tio n, m an uf ac tu rin g & d ist rib ut io n of il lic it co m m od iti es, & cr im in al g ro up s c ap ab ili tie s Le ve l o f k n o w le d g e (ex cel len t, g ood , fai r o r p oor ) Fo cu s a re a s fo r co ll e ct io n Sp ec ifi c i nt ell ig en ce g ap s w ith in ea ch m ar ke t s ub ca te go ry w ith a fo cu s o n cr im in al ro les , s co pe a nd ca pa bi lit ies . M or tga ge fr au d • I de nti fi e d s om e k ey cr im ina l g rou ps in vo lve d i n m or tga ge fra ud w ith co nc en tra tio ns in B .C ., A lbe rta & O nta rio . • L ess kn ow led ge ab ou t t he sc op e, ma gn itu de & ha rm of th is fra ud . Go od Fa ir Fo cu s o n e sta bli sh ing ke y a rea s/r eg ion s f or mo rtg ag e f rau d & cri mi na l g rou ps us ing m or tga ge fr au d t o f ur th er oth er act ivi tie s l ike m ari hu an a g row op era tio ns . Pa ym en t c ard fr au d • K no wl ed ge of so me gr ou ps in vo lve d i n t he di str ibu tio n & us e o f s ma lle r q ua nt iti es of co un ter fei t c ard s. • L ess kn ow led ge ab ou t t he m an ufa ctu re of co un ter fei t c ard s. Fa ir Po or Fo cu s o n g rou ps in vo lve d i n l arg e-s cal e m an ufa ctu re & dis tri bu tio n o f c ou nt erf eit ca rd s, p art icu lar ly wi th dis tri bu tio n i nt ern ati on all y. Ill ici t d ru gs – e cst asy • I de nti fi e d k ey cr im ina l g rou ps ar e i nv olv ed in im po rti ng ch em ica l p rec urs ors & m an ufa ctu rin g e cst asy in mu lti- kil og ram qu an tit ies on a reg ula r b asi s. • Th ere are nu me rou s c rim ina l g rou ps in vo lve d i n d ist rib uti ng ecs tas y a t m id- lev el & str ee t-l ev el dis tri bu tio n q ua nti tie s th rou gh ou t t he co un try . • Va ryi ng le ve ls of kn ow led ge ar e pre sen t r eg ard ing th eir cr im ina l c ap ab ilit ies , so urc es of ecs tas y, m ag nit ud e o f o pe rat ion s, & in ter -li nk ag es. Go od Go od Fa ir Fo cu s o n i de nt ify ing