Chart Pattern Trader《形态交易者——如何使用经典形态交易》（英文版）

Chart Patterns Trader Chart Patterns Trader By: Kevin Matras Zacks Investment Research, Inc. ??????????：158-6145-5758 1656638169 iChart Patterns Trader SupplementUnderstanding and Trading Classic Chart Patterns Table of Contents Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii Chapter 1: Chart Patterns and Technical Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Chapter 2: Symmetrical Triangles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Chapter 3: Ascending Triangles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Chapter 4: Descending Triangles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Chapter 5: Flags and Pennants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Chapter 6: Rectangles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Chapter 7: Wedges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Chapter 8: Head and Shoulders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Chapter 9: Chart Patterns Trader . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 ??????????：158-6145-5758 1656638169 iiChart Patterns Trader SupplementUnderstanding and Trading Classic Chart Patterns Introduction Aside from knowing what to buy or sell, the question of when to buy and when to sell could very well be the question of all questions when it comes to trading. Fundamentals of course are ultimately the key in determining the price or value of a stock. And statistics have shown that companies receiving upward earnings estimate revisions outperform the market while companies receiving downward earnings estimate revisions underperform the market. But technical analysis (and specifically chart pattern analysis) can give you insight as to when the market is ready to react to those fundamentals. Just because you think you’ve found a solid company, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s ready to go up as you’d anticipated. How many times have you read about, heard about or researched a certain stock, determined that the fundamentals were bullish or bearish, only to then take a position and watch the market go the other way? Confused and frustrated you then abandon your position only to then watch it finally go the way you had been expecting from the beginning. And the reasons for your earlier market convictions are now being played out in the media while you stand by wondering what happened? Brutal, huh? It happens all the time. Very often, the price action on a chart can form meaningful patterns. These chart patterns reflect the collective buying and selling sentiment of the market and can in turn be used in trying to forecast future price direction and the timing surrounding it. Keep in mind, nothing is foolproof. But a strong fundamental outlook combined with a good technical viewpoint creates a very potent combination for the trader and investor. In the pages that follow, we’ll identify the eight classic chart patterns, what they mean and how to trade them. The best part about this form of technical analysis is that it’s very straight forward. The chart action has either formed a certain shape or it hasn’t. No guesswork. No subjective interpretation. It’s either there or it isn’t. It’s quick. It’s easy. And oh yeah, it works! Kevin Matras Zacks Investment Research, Inc. ??????????：158-6145-5758 1656638169 1 Chapter 3Chart Patterns Trader SupplementUnderstanding and Trading Classic Chart Patterns Chart Patterns and Technical Analysis Why Chart Patterns? Identifying chart patterns is simply a form of technical analysis. And technical analysis is just a method for trying to forecast the ups and downs of the market. Research has proven that some chart patterns have high forecasting probabilities. These patterns include: Symmetrical Triangles• Ascending Triangles & Descending Triangles• Wedges• Flag & Pennants• Rectangles• Head and Shoulders patterns• What do these chart patterns all have in common? They were all patterns in some of the biggest market moves! Continuation Patterns and Reversal Patterns Different chart patterns can be classified as either continuation patterns or reversal patterns. Continuation Patterns are called that because they generally will continue the direction of the trend. For example: if a stock is in an uptrend and then pauses or enters into a period of consolidation (i.e., trading is temporarily confined to a well-defined pattern or range), the expectation is that the market will ultimately breakout to the upside and continue the direction of the trend. If the trend was down prior to the consolidation, the expectation would be for the stock to breakout to the downside and continue the direction of the downtrend. Symmetrical Triangles, Ascending & Descending Triangles, Rectangles and Flags & Pennants are the most common continuation patterns. Reversal Patterns have a tendency of reversing the trend. These consolidation patterns can signal a reversal in both uptrends as well as downtrends. The Head and Shoulders patterns (which includes the Inverted Head and Shoulders) is typically identified as a reversal pattern. Interestingly, there are times when a Head and Shoulders pattern can act as a continuation pattern. These instances can be explosive and we’ll show you how to identify which is which. Wedges can act as both continuation patterns and reversal patterns as well. The preceding trend and the slant of the Wedge make it easy to identify which is which and what direction the ensuing move is likely to be. Research has proven that some chart patterns have high forecasting probabilities. ??????????：158-6145-5758 1656638169 2 Chapter 4Chart Patterns Trader SupplementUnderstanding and Trading Classic Chart Patterns Symmetrical Triangles Overview Symmetrical Triangles are continuation patterns that generally mark a pause in the preceding trend. It’s identified as having two converging trendlines that take the shape of a sideways triangle. This pattern can mean the market has simply gotten ahead of itself and it needs to consolidate or it truly is in a period of indecision and is looking for direction. Attempts to push higher are met by selling and attempts to push lower are met with buying. Each new lower high and higher low becomes shallower than the last. Volume will usually diminish during this period as well. Eventually, the symmetrical triangle resolves itself and often with an explosive breakout in the direction of the preceding trend. Symmetrical Triangles in Uptrends / Bullish The majority of the time, a Symmetrical Triangle in an uptrend will breakout to the upside. A high volume breakout is more reliable than a low volume breakout. Symmetrical Triangles in Downtrends / Bearish Symmetrical Triangles in downtrends will typically breakout to the downside. However, an increase in volume is not required for a successful breakout. In fact, a significant increase in volume might be considered suspect. Although, volume should start to increase as the downside move continues. Identifying and Drawing Symmetrical Triangles Triangles are usually quite easy to see on a chart. Especially when the lines have already been drawn in. To identify a Symmetrical Triangle pattern on your own, remember that it has to have at least four points: two points at the top to draw the downward slanting trendline and two points at the bottom to draw the upward slanting trendline. Connecting ??????????：158-6145-5758 1656638169 5Chart Patterns Trader SupplementUnderstanding and Trading Classic Chart Patterns Symmetrical Triangles continued... the high point and the subsequent lower high forms the top part of the triangle. Connecting the low and the subsequent higher low forms the bottom part of the triangle. Symmetrical Triangles in uptrends are bullish, while Symmetrical Triangles in downtrends are bearish. For a bullish Symmetrical Triangle pattern, the first point (the point farthest left, i.e., the earliest point) is at the top. For a bearish pattern, the first point is at the bottom. A triangle can have more than four points. The image to the right has six. Measured Moves (Minimum Profit Targets) To determine your projected minimum profit target, measure the distance between points 1 and 2. This is the widest part of the triangle and is often referred to as the base. For example: if the top of the base (point 1) was $56 and the bottom of the base (point 2) was $50, the base would be $6. This is your measured move. To project your minimum profit target, identify at what price the stock broke thru the triangle. For this example, let’s say $54. Then add $6 to the breakout price of $54 and you have you minimum projected profit target of $60. (See image to the right.) ??????????：158-6145-5758 1656638169 6Chart Patterns Trader SupplementUnderstanding and Trading Classic Chart Patterns Symmetrical Triangles continued... Failures and Stop-Out Points There are different failure points based on how you enter the trade. If you enter the trade after a breakout, you should use a move below the apex point as your failure point and exit the trade. (The image below depicts a Symmetrical Triangle in an uptrend for illustration.) If you get in before a breakout occurs in anticipation of one, a move below the last point of the triangle (e.g., point 4 in a four pointed triangle or point 6 in a six pointed triangle, etc.) should be your failure point and you should consider exiting the trade. (The image to the right depicts a Symmetrical Triangle in an uptrend for illustration.) For the more experienced chart pattern trader, you might choose to stay in a little longer if you believe the pattern is being ‘re-drawn’ into a new pattern such as a larger triangle, or a bullish flag or even a wedge. This can makes sense if your early entry was near the bottom of the pattern and staying in a little longer still keeps your risk within your level of tolerance. Summary The use of the word ‘Symmetrical’ in describing the Triangle is used loosely and is more of a way of distinguishing it from an Ascending Triangle and Descending Triangle. The Symmetrical Triangle doesn’t have to be symmetrical per se’, but as stated earlier, it does have to have two converging trendlines -- the top line slanting downward and the bottom line slanting upward so that they eventually come together to form a right sided triangle. Since this pattern is a continuation pattern, it’s most profitable to trade this in the direction of the preceding trend. You can get in after a breakout has occurred or you can choose to get in early in anticipation of a breakout taking place. Either way, pay attention to the volume and your failure points and the Symmetrical Triangle will become a trusted pattern in your trading. ??????????：158-6145-5758 1656638169 7Chart Patterns Trader SupplementUnderstanding and Trading Classic Chart Patterns Symmetrical Triangles continued... Examples ??????????：158-6145-5758 1656638169 3 Chapter 8Chart Patterns Trader SupplementUnderstanding and Trading Classic Chart Patterns Ascending Triangles Overview The Ascending Triangle is a variation of the Symmetrical Triangle. The difference is that the Ascending Triangle has a flat line on top (i.e., horizontal trendline) instead of a downward slanting trendline like in the Symmetrical Triangle. The bottom of the pattern has an upward slanting trendline. The two lines eventually come together to form a flat-topped, right-sided triangle. The Ascending Triangle is a continuation pattern. It’s generally considered bullish and is most reliable when found in an uptrend. In ascending triangles, the market becomes overbought and needs to consolidate. As prices try to advance, they are turned back by selling. Buying then re-enters the market and prices soon reach their old highs. Resistance is met again and they are turned back once more. Resistance occurs at approximately the same high price each time (horizontal trendline), while new buying on the pullbacks, serve to lift the support levels higher (upward slanting trendline). This bullish price action most often leads to an upside breakout in the direction of the preceding trend, as the old highs are taken out and prices are propelled even higher as new buying comes in. Volume usually diminishes during the formation of the pattern, but explodes on the breakout. Ascending Triangles in Uptrends / Bullish As in the case of the Symmetrical Triangle, Ascending Triangles in uptrends are bullish and the breakout is generally accompanied by a marked increase in volume. Low volume breakouts should be watched carefully as they are more prone to failure. Ascending Triangles in downtrends are less reliable and are therefore not a part of the classic Chart Patterns set-ups. ??????????：158-6145-5758 1656638169 9Chart Patterns Trader SupplementUnderstanding and Trading Classic Chart Patterns Ascending Triangles continued... Identifying and Drawing Ascending Triangles Ascending Triangles are also quite easy to see on a chart. To identify an Ascending Triangle pattern on your own, remember that it has to have at least four points: two points at the top to draw the horizontal trendline and two points at the bottom to draw the upward slanting trendline. Connecting the two, approximately same, high points forms the top (flat) part of the triangle. Connecting the low and the subsequent higher low forms the bottom part of the triangle. Ascending Triangles in uptrends are bullish. For a bullish Ascending Triangle pattern, the first point (the point farthest left, i.e., the earliest point) is at the top. And just like Symmetrical Triangle, an Ascending Triangle can have more than four points. The image to the right has six. Measured Moves (Minimum Profit Targets) To determine your projected minimum profit target, measure the distance between points 1and 2. This is the widest part of the triangle and is often referred to as the base. For example: if the top of the base (point 1) was $70 and the bottom of the base (point 2) was $63, the base would be $7. This is your measured move. To project your minimum profit target, identify at what price the stock broke thru the Ascending Triangle. (This is easy to predict even if it hasn’t yet broken out because the breakout point is essentially the high of the pattern (i.e., the flat trendline at the top). So if the breakout price is $70, then add $7 to that price and you get your minimum projected price target of $77. (See the image to the right.) ??????????：158-6145-5758 1656638169 10Chart Patterns Trader SupplementUnderstanding and Trading Classic Chart Patterns Ascending Triangles continued... Failures and Stop-Out Points There are different failure points based on how you enter the trade. If you enter the trade after a breakout, you should use a move below the apex point as your failure point and exit the trade. A secondary failure point could be placed at the last point (or point 4 in this example). (See the gray dotted line showing this scenario.) This additional failure point is usually only used if the breakout and subsequent trading has not extended beyond the length of the pattern (i.e., apex) and the risk levels are still within your tolerance. (The image below depicts an Ascending Triangle in an uptrend for illustration.) If you get in before a breakout occurs in anticipation of one, a move below the last point of the triangle (point 4 in this example) should be your failure point and you should consider exiting the trade. For the more experienced trader, you might choose to stay in a little longer if you believe the pattern is being ‘re-drawn’ into a new pattern such as a larger ascending triangle or a rectangle. If this is the case, use the bottom of the base (point 2) as the failure point and exit below there. (See the gray dotted line that shows this scenario.)This can makes sense if your early entry was near the bottom of the pattern and staying in a little longer still keeps your risk within your level of tolerance. (The image below depicts an Ascending Triangle in an uptrend for illustration.) ??????????：158-6145-5758 1656638169 11Chart Patterns Trader SupplementUnderstanding and Trading Classic Chart Patterns Ascending Triangles continued... Summary Since this pattern is a continuation pattern, it’s most profitable to trade this in the direction of the preceding trend. And remember, it’s most reliable when found in uptrends. In fact, the Ascending Triangle has an astounding success rate, breaking out to the upside 70% of the time. You can get in after a breakout has occurred or you can choose to get in early in anticipation of a breakout taking place. This high probability pattern is a great bullish indicator. Example ??????????：158-6145-5758 1656638169 4 Chapter 12Chart Patterns Trader SupplementUnderstanding and Trading Classic Chart Patterns Descending Triangles Overview The Descending Triangle is basically the reverse of an Ascending Triangle. The flat line (horizontal trendline) is on the bottom and a descending trendline defines the top part of the pattern. The two lines come together to form a flat- bottomed, right-sided triangle. The Descending Triangle is a continuation pattern and is generally considered bearish. It is most reliable when found in a downtrend. In the Descending Triangle, prices drop to a point where they are considered oversold. Tentative buying comes in at the lows and prices perk up. The higher prices however attract more selling and the old lows (horizontal trendline) are re-tested. Buying once again lifts prices, although resulting in a lower high (downward slanting trendline). New selling comes in and pushes it back down. This bearish price action typically leads to a downside breakout to new lows, continuing the direction of the downward trend. Volume decreases during the formation of the pattern but should noticeably increase on the breakout. Descending Triangles in Downtrends / Bearish Descending Triangles in downtrends are bearish and the breakout usually sees an increase in volume. A low volume breakout should be carefully watched. Descending Triangles in uptrends are less reliable and are therefore not a part of the classic Chart Patterns set-ups. Identifying and Drawing Descending Triangles Descending Triangles are easy to spot. To identify a Descending Triangle on your own, remember that it has to have at least four points: two points at the bottom to draw the horizontal trendline (you’ll draw a line connecting the recurring lows) and two points at the top to draw the downward slanting trendline (a line connecting the lower highs). ??????????：158-6145-5758 1656638169 13Chart Patterns Trader SupplementUnderstanding and Trading Classic Chart Patterns Descending Triangles continued... Descending Triangles in downtrends are bea