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US$3 / Bt100 9 771905 265009 ISSN 19052650 09921 09921 APRIL 6-19, 2012 POLITICS China’s Ides of March BUSINESS Japan’s Peach takes off POPASIA Taiwan’s ‘queen of blogs’ TRAIL OF TERROR Southeast Asia’s At work I don’t have a choice of where I sit But with Star Alliance Upgrade Awards Across 20 of our member airlines worldwide Now I do. I’ve earned it. Takuma Sato Internat ional racing dr iver and Star Al l iance Gold Status staral l iance.com W e K n o w A s i a B e t t e r AS I A N EWS NE TWORK 20 newspapers in 17 countries—covering Asia for 10 years COVER IMAGE | AREf KARIMI/AfP April 6-19, 2012 • Vol 7 No 7 Trail Of Terror  8 The changing terrain of terrorism in Southeast Asia COVER STORY WRITE, FAX, EMAIL Please include sender’s name and address to: anneditor@nationgroup.com | Asia News Network Nation Multimedia Group Plc 1854 Bangna-Trad Road (Km 4.5), Bangna, Bangkok 10260 Thailand.Tel: (662)338 3333 Fax: (662)338 3964 Subscription inquries: Nation Multimedia Group Plc 1854 Bangna-Trad Road (Km 4.5), Bangna, Bangkok 10260 Thailand.Tel: (662)338 3333 Call Center: (662)338 3000 press 1 Fax: (662)338 3964 Copyright © 2006 of Asia News Network. All rights reserved. AsiaNews (ISSN 1905-2650) is a weekly magazine. Printed by WPS (Thailand) Co, Ltd Subsidiary of Nation Multimedia Group Plc. VIEW  7 The Future Of Asean The grouping needs to evolve for it to be effective SPECIAL REPORT  16 Nuked Out Is nuclear terrorism as big a threat as some perceive? POLITICS  18 China’s Ides Of March Bo Xi Lai was once poised for the topmost rungs of the Chinese Commu- nist Party but he has since fallen from grace BUSINESS  22 Peach Flavours New Budget Travel Era As cost-conscious tourists surge, budget carriers are steering overseas in a bid to offset high jet oil prices and prop up balance sheets SOCIETY  24 The Good, The Bad & The Lyari Despite popular belief, Lyari isn’t just about gangs and goons F E AT U R E S POPASIA  32 Just ‘Wan’ Of Us Taiwan’s ‘Queen of Blogs’ is very down-to-earth and easy to relate to CULTURE  34 Heart Of Stones The mystery of Indonesia’s precious gems FASHION  36 Don’t Be A Fashion Victim We’ve all suffered in one way or another for the sake of looking good TRAVEL  42 Time Traveller Chinese villages have changed little from how they looked like 600 years ago P H O T O b y b A y I S M O y O /A f P 6 • April 6-19, 2012 SOUTH KOREAThe View Military Adventurism T he window of diplomacy toward North Korea is closing as the date for its long-range missile l a u n c h i s f a s t approaching. Defying international pressure aga ins t i t s p lan , the communist state is proceeding with preparations for what it claims to be a satellite launch, scheduled for any time between April 12 and 16. What will follow is nothing but international sanctions. The United States, which vows to over- haul its approach toward North Korea if it pushes ahead with its plan, has al- ready taken punitive action. As an unmistakable warn- ing against the North Korean move, the United States has recently suspended its plan to provide the communist state with 240,000 tonnes of food aid. This will make the hun- ger-stricken North feel the pinch even more acutely. At a recent US congres- sional hearing, Peter Lavoy, an acting assistant secretary of defence, cited as a reason “no confidence about the monitoring mechanisms that ensure that the food assistance goes to the starving people and not the regime elite”. But few would accept this explanation at face value. The halt in food aid was undoubt- edly the first concrete punitive ac- tion Washington had taken since it recently decided not to reward North Korea’s bad behaviour. US President Barack Obama, on a visit to Seoul for the March 26-27 Nu- clear Security Summit, warned the North would face additional sanc- tions should it proceed with its planned missile launch. North Korea was grossly mis- guided if it believed that the United States and other members of the international community were gul- lible enough to buy its satellite story. Even China went out of its way and chided Pyongyang. The United States regards the missile programme as posing a “di- rect and serious threat” to the secu- rity of South Korea and other US allies in the region, as James Miller, the nominee for the post of under- secretary of defence for policy, testi- fied at his recent Senate confirma- tion hearing. As such, he said, the United States, in the event of a missile launch, will overhaul its ap- proach toward North Korea, which undoubtedly has been conciliatory. The planned launch is one of the two acts of military adventurism that a South Korean think-tank pre- dicted Pyongyang would take this year. In January, the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Secu- rity said that North Korea’s new young leader, Kim Jong-un, would likely order another missile launch and a third nuclear test this year to consolidate his grip on power and demonstrate his leadership. In an apparent attempt to forestall such military adventurism, the United States concluded an agree- ment on food aid with North Korea on February 29. It agreed to provide the North with 240,000 tonnes of food on condition that it temporar- ily suspended uranium enrichment at Yongbyon and put a moratorium on nuclear missile tests. They also agreed to negotiate the terms under which the multilateral denuclearisa- tion talks would resume. During the talks that led to the Feburary 29 accord, the North Korean negotiators reportedly broached the idea of sending a satellite into orbit. According to a news report, the US negotiators voiced strong opposition, say- ing it would violate UN Secu- rity Council Resolution 1874, a resolution banning North Korea, among others, from engaging in any launch using ballistic missile technology. Two weeks after the agree- ment was concluded, North Korea announced that it would launch a satellite be- tween April 12 and 16. It was using an old tactic of reneging or threatening to renege on an existing deal to start negotiations anew for greater gains. In response, US President Obama said, “Bad be- haviour will not be rewarded.” But withholding the shipment of food aid may not be a punishment strong enough to thwart the launch. More effective would be a warning from China. If there is any country capable of dissuading the North against the military adventurism, it is China. After all, North Korea re- lies on China for energy and other imports. China’s active role in this regard should be taken up as one of the main agenda items when South Ko- rean, Chinese and Japanese foreign ministers hold talks on trilateral cooperation. China plays a crucial role in thwarting N. Korea’s missile launch By The Korea herald ❖ Seoul P H O T O b y A f P North Korean leader Kim Jong-un April 6-19, 2012 • 7 THE PHILIPPINES Climate Risks And Asean I f leaders cannot c h a n g e wh en circumstances d em a n d t h a t t h e y do , t h e y would be out of touch and less effective. These words well apply to the Asean Way in the light of Asean leaders’ com- munity-building, espe- cially in these times of climate crisis. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) was built upon opposition to imperialism. A nonaligned movement was initiated by Indonesia so that its neighbour- ing governments refrained from taking any side during the Cold War. It was a tremendously difficult task at that time, considering that even before the war, the peoples of the region were divided by a history of colonialism and ethnic and religious diversity, territorial fights and other antagonisms. That Asean has survived the con- flicting interests and constant mu- tual suspicion of its member-states may be attributed to the efforts of its political leaders to deal only with non-contentious matters such that no member would feel its national interests threatened by a group deci- sion. This is the essence of the Asean Way, or consensus decision-making that does not diminish sovereignty or interfere in domestic affairs. In today’s very different environ- ment, there are apparent efforts to move Asean to a higher plane of cooperation with emphasis on the economic and social side of the as- sociation. Examples are Asean’s economic community-building and climate change initiative. In fact, how to keep efforts on track to real- ise economic integration by 2015 and how to implement the climate action commitments in the Bali Concord III are said to be on the agenda of the recently held Asean Summit in Cambodia. One thing, however, that was in- tentionally not changed over the decades is the Asean Way. Hence, there are reasonable doubts about Asean’s capability to make the single community a reality given the same old Asean Way still enshrined in its new Charter and valued by the incumbent political managers in the region. A commu- nity has some institutionalised structure that defines it indepen- dently from state membership. But because of the Asean Way, func- tional structures and compliance mechanisms cannot be set up, and in the absence of such, the Asean community will not have substance and strength to operate. There are also legitimate concerns that Asean’s community-building is just another effort to reinvent from the top a process that does not have at the bottom a truly integrative thrust considering that the Asean Way does not include processes where the people engage in decision-making. Sadly, the Asean Way is also the excuse of the 10 governments for their failure to get their act together in the UN climate change negotiations. While there were intentions and efforts by some governments to make Asean a relevant and strong actor in the negotiations, these were blocked by other Asean nations in the name of national interests. Lead- ers of the region failed to give the mandate to the i r negot ia tors to speak and act as a group in the climate change talks. Without the man- date, Asean joint lead- ers’ statements, as well as resolu- tions to advance regional interests in its climate change initiative platform, are empty words. Reminiscent of the ideological di- vide during the Cold War, present civil society advocacies that demand more renewable energy, energy effi- ciency, protection of forests and people’s engagement in the formula- tion of national mitigation and adap- tation actions to battle climate change are dismissed by some Asean governments as imperialist schemes to sabotage their national economic development. Climate change does not have national domains or an ideological brand. The times demand that Asean leaders change the old way of doing things. If they cannot change, then maybe it would be best for them to keep Asean as a security consensus body where the Asean Way works comfortably for everyone. Asean is not, and should not be, the only ex- pression of international relations in Southeast Asia. New associations with appropriate ways of working are needed to address transnational is- sues like climate change, building strong communities. In the end, it is the worthy leaders of Southeast Asia who will embrace change, make his- tory, and initiate new movements. Zelda dT Soriano iS policy adviSor of Greenpeace SouTheaST aSia Asean needs to evolve for it to tackle the climate crisis By Zelda dT Soriano Philippine Daily Inquirer ❖ Manila P H O T O b y H O A n G D In H n A M /A f P Asean leaders during the annual Ministerial Meeting in Phnom Penh on April 2, 2012. 8 • April 6-19, 2012 COVER STORY By Sidney Jones The Straits Times ❖ Jakarta S outheast Asian gov- ernments continue to manage home-grown extremism reasonably well, but the problem is not going away. Indonesia used to have one major attack a year—last year, there were seven separate plots, of which five ended in vio- lence, although the efforts were amateurish and the casualty rate was low. The recent foiled plot by sus- pected Islamic militants to bomb Bali marks an escalation of the vio- lent threat in Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim country. Several factors could affect the development of terrorism over the coming year: The increasingly fre- quent alliance, particularly in Indo- nesia, between jihadists, armed with bombs or guns, and thuggish anti- vice or anti-apostasy militants, who in the past have preferred rocks and sticks; the coming of age of younger siblings of slain or detained terrorist suspects; revival of the Rajah Su- laiman Movement (RSM) under another name in the Philippines; and possibly, fallout from the Arab Spring, particularly in Yemen. Indonesia remains the stronghold of extremism in the region, by virtue of its size, openness and lack of con- sensus among the moderate major- ity about the nature of the threat. As larger jihadi organisations like Je- maah Islamiah have fragmented, new groups have emerged without the trained leadership or lengthy recruitment and indoctrination pro- cess that characterised the old ones. Their members are often educated in state high schools, not Muslim boarding schools, and radicalised by clerics who lecture openly about the need to fight enemies of Islam, in- cluding the government. ∞∞ ExTREmiSm On ThE RiSE? In the past, there were clear ideo- logical lines within the radical fringe between thugs and jihadists. Today those lines have blurred, making deterrence more difficult. For the last two years, the focus of Indonesian terrorists has been over- whelmingly on domestic targets, primarily the police, but also local Christians. The focus on foreigners has receded to the background and A TRAIL OF TERROR THE CHANGING TERRAIN OF TERRORISM IN SOUTHEAST ASIA US President Barack Obama speaks on nuclear security, touching on subjects including terrorism during a speech at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul on March 26, 2012. P H O T O b y J E w E l S A M A D /A f P April 6-19, 2012 • 9 is likely to stay there—even the kill- ing of Osama bin Laden at American hands did not bring it back. Nevertheless, it could return under certain conditions and within a few limited constituencies. For example, a few Indonesians studying in Pakistan or Yemen could be recruited by extremists, as has happened in the past, and return home committed to the global jihad. New militants could also emerge from the remnants of terrorist leader Malaysian Muslim extremist Noordin Top’s group—particularly younger siblings of those arrested or killed after the second Bali bombing in 2005 or the twin hotel bombings in Jakarta in 2009. ∞∞ OThER EmERging faCTORS The Philippines is also a place to watch. Early last November, a man calling himself Abu Jihad Khalil al- Rahman al-Luzoni (that is, from the island of Luzon, not Mindanao) posted a video in Arabic on YouTube asking for support. Many believe he is in fact Khalil Pareja , a former pr isoner and leader of the Philippine-based RSM group. The organisation of mostly converts to Islam worked with the Abu Sayyaf group in the past but fell into decline in recent years. If Khalil is back on the job, looking for funds and recruits, it could mean that Manila will see more system- atic jihadi activity. Finally, there is the Arab Spring, which has had very little impact thus far in Southeast Asia. Yemen could be the exception, where some 2,000 Indonesians were studying before the political turmoil began, most at non-radical schools in the Had- ramaut. A few have had more sinis- ter links, including one of those in- volved in the Jakarta bombings. If the Islamist element in the country should grow stronger, then the pros- pect of more Indonesians or other Southeast Asians being recruited could grow. All of this suggests a need for con- tinued vigilance and improved re- gional cooperation. ∞∞ STigmaTiSing iSlam Last July and November, police in Indonesia and Malaysia arrested 30 members of an organisation known as the Abu Umar group, after its leader. The group ’ s reach ex tended through Jakarta, Sulawesi and East Kalimantan in Indonesia to Sabah in Malaysia and Tawi-Tawi, Zam- boanga and Jolo in the Philippines— its full extent remains under inves- tigation. Its existence underscores how much the terrorism problem transcends national boundaries and how much law enforcement officials in the region need to learn from one another. But it also underscores how easy recruitment into violent groups con- tinues to be and how much more effort needs to be put into strength- ening community resistance to ex- tremist doctrine. The problem, at least in Indonesia, is that no one can agree where the threat is coming from, and fear of stigmatising Islam remains high. The result is political paralysis on counter-radical isat ion efforts , despite good law enforcement. Many Musl im leaders at the district level remain convinced that the terrorism issue is a plot by the police to divert attention from corruption scandals and keep the counter-terrorism funds flowing. Until the region’s largest country can come to grips with the issue domestically, broader regional efforts will be hampered. The wriTer iS a Senior adviSer aT The inTernaTional criSiS Group baSed in JakarTa P H O T O b y A l JIb E /A f P Indonesian anti-terror police prepare for a j o in t an t i - te r ror d r i l l i n Jakar ta . Indonesia has arrested over 600 terrorist suspects since the 2002 Bali bombings that killed more than 200 people. P H O T O b y b A y IS M O y O /A f P A Philippine marine awaits deployment to the island of Mindanao where the military is fighting Abu Sayyaf, a Muslim extremist group. 10 • April 6-19, 2012 COVER STORY ❖ Islamabad W hen “terrorism” is used to refer to certain groups or their actions, it r i s k s s t r a y i n g into the realm of subjectivity. The attacks of September 2001 and the terrorism associated with al- Qaeda have only added exponen- tially to the existing confusion re- garding the definition of the word by popularising new terms and phrases such as “international terrorism”, “global terrorism”, “catastrophic ter- rorism” etc. Academic efforts to develop a generally acceptable defi- nition of “terrorism” have tended to stray from consensus; from the perspective of history and academic discourse, since the time when the notion of terror was first popular- ised—the French Revolution, with its regime de la terreur—certain pat- terns can be observed. For most of the time, contrary to its French origins, the notion of “ter- rorism” has been associated with revolutionary forces opposing gov- ernments. Only briefly, in the years leading to the Second World War and during that war, was the term widely used to describe mass repres- sion by states of their peoples. While there was a time when revolutionary groups using terror tactics would publicise and justify them as “propaganda by deed”, after the Second World War no revolu- tionary organisation wanted to call itself “terrorist”, even if in practice it targeted civilian populations and non-combatants. Hence the growing confusion and subjective connota- tions of the term. ∞∞ UnClEaR dEfiniTiOnS This subjectivity about contextu- alising terrorism has given rise to various new approaches to under- standing the concept, with some terrorists portraying themselves as freedom fighters struggling for their rights, which, according to them, justifies their targeting of civilians. States have also ut