一虎一席谈

一虎一席谈 34:37 胡一虎: 场下的嘉宾请说 Audiences please say 观众: 之前有专家 包括谭老师 Experts including Miss Tan 一直在强调就是说 has emphasized that 美国是这是规则得制定者 the United States is the rules makers 那么现在随着六十多年后 Now, after more than sixty years, 随着这个社会的发展 with the development of society, 那么这个IMF的规则 then, should the IMF rules 它要不要变，谁来变 change and who to change? 如果我们中国想变 If China want to change 想对我们有益的话 and want something beneficial to us 我们是不是要先在这个规则里 Firstly, we should be in the rules 玩转了 玩好了 and get along well with the play 才能再制定规则 And then we can make the rules 才能改这个规则呢 and change the rules. 34:58 胡一虎:对 来雅玲来回应一下 雅玲 Ya Ling responds to this, Ya Ling 谭雅玲:我觉得发展还是根据 I think the development bases on 改革的进程和时间的这个过渡 the process of the reform and the transition of time 来增添更多的东西 to add more things 但是像IMF这么大 But like IMF a so big 一个权威的机构 authoritative organization 这么一个多边的机构 and so multilateral institutions 你想让它随行就市 You want it to reform at any times and any places 随时随地地去发生改革 and fluctuate with market conditions 规则的这种变动 This change of the rules 是很难很难的 is difficult 它毕竟要经过一个时代 Although it should go through one era 或者经历一个大的震荡之后 or experience a big shock 它可能会有一些突破 It may have some breakthrough 但是它已经走了六十多年了 but it has been gone for over sixty years 我记得我们在1997年 In 1997, I remember when we are 亚洲金融危机的时候 in the Asian financial crisis, 就讨论国际货币基金组织的改革 we has discussed the reform of the International Monetary Fund 一直讨论到现在 Until now, we are still discussing the problem 其实等于是没有结果的 Actually, it is not result 35:30丁 一凡:祖六刚才说的那个是有道理的 What Zu Liu has said is reasonable IMF实际上是在不停地改变自己 Actually, IMF is in constant change IMF这个机制 Although, the mechanism of IMF 虽然是1944年就开始设计成立的 established in 1944 但是呢 如果看它的 if it is saw the 整个演变过程的话 the whole process of evolution 它中间经历了很大的几个变化 It go through a few big changes 所以在这个里面 So in this, 也就是说讲到中国的话语权 this is to say, it is about the voice of China 讲到这个问的时候 When taking about this question, 实际上是你只要能提出 , in fact, as long as you can put forward 有说服力的论据的话 a convincing argument, 不见得IMF就不会接受 IMF maybe accept 这个东西要历史地看 This thing should be analyzed in historical view 它是变化的 , and, it changes 中国人应该有一定的信心 Chinese people should have some faith, 虽然你不是有否决权 although we have not a veto 为什么说美国人在IMF里 Why we say the IMF in Americans? 实际上就是因为它有一个否决权 Actually, because it has a veto 做重大的决定的时候 when a big decision time is made 因为它需要85%的这个一致通过 Because it needs 85% of this agreement, 而因为美国已经超过了15%的这个份额 and because the United States has more than 15% of the share 所以只要它不同意 So ,so long as American does not agree with, 那你就不够85%的投票权 you do not have 85% of the voting rights 只有这么一个说法 There is only such a statement 除了这个以外 Except to this, 它也不是说能够支配 It can not dominate 所有的IMF的话语 all IMF rights 和IMF的所有的这个程序 and IMF all procedures 36:32 陈炳才:国际货币基金组织的份额改革 In fact, International Monetary Fund Share Reform 实际上和全球货币体系的改革 is linked to 是联系在一起的 the global monetary system reform 如果仅仅是它的份额问题在讨论 If only the share issue in the discussion, 我觉得美国人在后面偷着乐 I think Americans are happy behind 而且会乐很长的时间 and happy for a long time 36:43 胡一虎:所以你提到了国际货币体系 So you mentioned the international monetary system 整个的改革 and the whole reform 36:46 陈炳才:对 要想在国际货币体系当中 If you want to be in the international monetary system, 就是根据 according to 货币基金组织的职能来说 the IMF functions 保持全球的金融稳定来说 and Maintaining global financial stability, 这个国际货币体系必须改 the international monetary system must be changed 你这个体系要不改 You do not change this system 这个规则不改 You do not change this rule 就是这个规则的这个 It is this rule that 制定的这个法律 make this Law 你没有去确定 You don't make sure 这个体系 this system 你在这个体系里再怎么跳 You can no jump in this system 跳不出去 没有希望 There is no hope 37:08 胡一虎: 所以你就是要改变 So, you have to change 以美国为主的国际货币体系 the international monetary system dominated by the United States 37:10 陈炳才: 对 货币体系 The way of making the rules of the monetary system , 包括国际货币基金组织的 including International Monetary Fund, 这个游戏规则制定要去改 should change 所以我觉得 So I think 国际货币基金组织改革 the International Monetary Fund reform 第一个要做什么 should do what firstly 关于这个救助机制要立法 About legislating the relief mechanism, 这是第一条 this is the first article 那么第二个就是特别提款权 Secondly, we should pay attention to the SDR 就是也得要立法管理 It is also legislation management 第三个关于国家货币体系 Thirdly, it is the national monetary system 应该也同样有立法 Which should also be legislated 就是什么样的货币可以 What kind of currency 进入国际储备货币 can enter the international reserve currency 可以做为特别提款权 as SDR 这个定值参照货币 The fixed value of a reference currency 这个东西都是要定规则 should be made as rules 37:35 胡一虎:你想推动的是多国的主权货币 You want to advance multinational currency 终结美元的霸权 to end the US dollar hegemony 37:38陈炳才:不是终结美元的霸权 It is the future of global financial stability 而是未来一个全球的金融稳定 more than ending the US dollar hegemony 包括刚才讲的 Including what we said, 这个投票权的份额问题 the voting share issue 这个规则也应该改革 should also be reformed 37:43胡一虎:这个可行吗 Is it feasible? 我问的是现在目前来讲 At present? 以美元为主导的这种货币体系 This monetary system dominated by the dollar 雅玲 Ya Ling 37:49 谭雅玲:在现阶段应该很难 At the present stage, it should be very difficult 现在世界第一大国还是美国 Now the world's first country is still the United States of America 经济的优势是在美国手里 The economic advantage is in the United States 美元的份额是世界上最大的 Dollars’ share is the largest in the world 所以美国人做了 So the Americans have done 很好的战略设计和战略的推进 good strategic design and strategic advance 它不是我们想象的那么幼稚 It is not so simple 那么简单 as we think 什么美元要崩溃 The dollar will be collapsed 金本位要回归 The gold standard will be returned 38:10 胡一虎:它每一次的贬值背后 Every time ,it is behind dollars falling 都有相当高度的战略意图 that is a considerable strategic intent 38:12 谭雅玲:对 它已经看到了全球化的这种现象 It has seen the globalization phenomenon 它在推全球化 It was pushing Globalization 但是它有一个前提条件 But it has a prerequisite 它的全球化布局是很到位的 that the layout of the globalization is wonderful 它是为美元霸权做落地的支撑 It is landing support for dollar hegemony 它想的是很高 Thinking in long terms, 而它的落实是很扎实的 and its implementation is very solid 38:27 胡祖六:国际货币体系改革 I also very much agree with the need for reform of 我也很赞同是改革的必要 international monetary system 国际货币体系也确实 The international monetary system is actually 不是一成不变的 not unchangeable 从1944年以来 刚才也讲到 Since 1944, we said, 原来是布雷顿森林 it was the original Bretton Woods system 后来固定汇率以后就没有了 Then there was not the fixed exchange rate 变成一个浮动汇率 是吧 And it changes into a floating exchange rate 现在开始又有一些新的调整和改变 Now there are some new adjustment and change 关键是说怎么样去改 对吧 The key is to how to change 美元不好 Dollars is not good 我们都看到美元的弱点 We all see weakness of dollar 有没有一个更好的去取代 对吧 Is there a better substitution? 这个东西我觉得还是没有 I feel there is not the substitution 在理论上面 In theory, 事实上都没有一种共识 in fact, there is not a consensus 就是我们可以去探讨 We can explore 这个东西也不能急于求成 and we can't be anxious for success 因为你看人类的货币史 Because you see the human history of money 你说美元之前是英镑 对吧 You said the pounds is before the dollars 英镑那时候主宰世界 Pounds dominate the world at that times 就比美元更好吗 Is it better than the dollar? 我觉得可能还有 I think it may be 我觉得美元相对还比较好一点 I think the dollar relatively good 你说金本位好不好呢 You say that the gold standard is good 金本位也有很多很多问题 Gold has also many problems 所以我觉得都应该去看 So I feel it should be seen 比较客观 比较冷静地看 Objectively and calmly 就是说这是渐进的一个过程 That is to say, this is a gradual process 39:21陈炳才: 美国人是筹划了它的美元的霸权 American is planning its dollar hegemony 而且确实美元霸权 And it is indeed the dollar hegemony 还会持续一段时间 and it will last for a period 但是要从更远的方向来看 But in long terms, 美国的美元霸权 the United States dollar hegemony 确实是有很大的问题 is a big problem 也就是说很难再继续持续下去 That is very difficult to continue 一个最简单的例子就是说 One of the most simple example is 美国的债务是无法持续下去的 the United States of America's debt is unsustainable 作为美国的债权人 As the United States of America's creditors, 你总有一天会提出这个问题 one day, you will ask this question 美国这么多债 the United States has so much debt 它将来拿什么东西还我 and it will pay its debt by what 如果它一旦还不起我的话 If American can not pay the debt, 后果会是什么 what is the consequence 人家肯定会问这种问题 People will ask this question 一旦问这种问题的时候 Once people asks this question, 它的债务就有问题了 its debt would be a problem 它的债务一出问题 When its debt is problem, 它美元的信誉就出问题了 its dollar reputation is the problem 美元的信誉就出问题了 When the dollar's reputation is the problem, 它的霸权就出问题了 its hegemony is the problem 美国国会自己做的研究认为 The United States Congress do their own research, it believes, 如果按照现在的路线走下去 if in the present route, 即使将来美国的年财政赤字 that even if the United States annual deficit 维持在3%的话 maintain in 3% in the future 到2040年 Until 2040, 美国政府的财政税收 the United States government fiscal revenue 要拿出一半以上支付债务利息 will be taken up with more than half to pay the interest on the debt 你想这时候怎么办 How to do at this times? 40:19 谭雅玲: 我觉得的谈美国的债务问题 I think about the United States debt problem 如果是作为本国经济 一国经济 if it is as a country's economy, 你可以这么去想象 you can imagine 美国的债务是不可持续的 the United States of America's debt is unsustainable 但是要看到美国的债务 But the United States debt 是在全球化得概念下 is in the globalization 它是一个全球资源的大调动 It is a global resource to move 而且我们要去看到 And we should see 美国人在拼命地储备黄金 Americans desperately reserve gold 美国人在拼命地储备石油 Americans desperately reserve oil 注意到一个指标 Pay attention to an indicator 美国的石油依存度 The United States of America's oil dependence 是从65%变成了45% is from 65% to 45% 它这几年在做什么 What American has done in this a few years 它在做准备 它在筹谋 It is preparing and planning 它已经想到了它的风险点 American has thought its risk point 它要规避它的风险点 It wants to avoid the risk point 美元不可持续 The dollar is not sustainable 这个道理是对的 This is the truth 但是到什么时候不可持续 But when it is unsustainable? 这个时间段到底有多长 how long the time is? 我们不是去关注 We are not going to pay attention to 美元不可持续这个点 that the dollar is unsustainable 而是要想现实 But we want to realize it 我们怎么应对 How do we deal with 现在美元的霸权格局 the dollar hegemony pattern at present 41:08 陈炳才:美元会在还比较长的时间内 In a relatively long period of time, 会维持它的这种 We will maintain this position 就是一种货币独霸的这种地位 that a currency to dominate 但是它的这个债务趋势 But it's debt trend 是已经变得越来越明显了 becomes more and more obvious 过去人家从来没有注意到这个事 In the past, people pay no attention to this matter 但是现在已经越来越明显了 But now, it has become more and more obvious 而美国本身自己的内部的政治斗争 While the United States internal political struggle 已经使得这种债务危机 has made the debt crisis 暴露在世人面前 exposed in front of the world 每年到年底都会出现 Each year, at the end of the year, it will appears 未来都会出现放宽债务上限的 The debt limit will be relaxed in the future 激烈的辩论和这个政治斗争 Intense debate and the political struggle 所以这个事已经成为一个 have become a 大家都知道的 事实上 fact that we all know 所以在这种情况下 So, in this case, 别人对美元的这个未来的地位 others suspect 怀疑的程度 the future status of the dollar 也会比我们想象的要快 Will be faster than we thought? 41:52 胡祖六:对我们国家来说 To our country, 我们不能塑造外部环境 we cannot create external environment 我们在固定的外部的环境下 We are in a fixed external environment, 我们怎样使最好的政治制度 how can we make the best political system? 最好的政策的制定 The best policy 来使中国获得最大的利益 is to make China's best interest 就是保证我们的金融稳定 It is just to ensure our financial stability, 宏观经济的稳定 macroeconomic stability, 能够可持续的发展 and sustainable development 所以现在就是这么一个格局 So it is such a pattern 我觉得与其把我们所有智力的资源 I feel rather than put all our intellectual resources, 政治的资源 财富的资源 political resources and wealth resources 都去摧垮美元这个霸主的地位 to destroy the dollar hegemony 去改变这个国际货币体系 and to change the international monetary system 还不如来提升 Why not upgrade 我们自己的金融改革 our financial reform, 深化金融改革 deepen financial reform, 提高我们金融系统的效率 稳定性 and improve the efficiency and stability of our financial system, 然后提高我们的汇率制度 and then improve our exchange rate system 比如说制定汇率制度的改革 For example, I think it is very important to 我觉得非常的重要 make the reform of exchange rate system 然后我们这个金融体系的改革 Then our financial system reform 也非常的重要 is also very important 42:33 胡一虎: 好 掌声感谢五位嘉宾 Applause for five guests 43:26 胡一虎: 国际货币体系当中 In the international monetary system, 还有一颗未来的闪耀之星 there is a future star 就是人民币 It is Chinese renminbi 针对人民币这部分 In this part of renminbi, 我们最近听到了 we have recently heard that 国际货币基金组织IMF的 Zhu Min who is vice President of 副总裁朱民他说了 International Monetary Fund IMF said 世界从来没有经历过 the world had never experienced 中国这样巨大的经济规模 China this huge scale economy 人均GDP很低 The per capita GDP is very low, 甚至金融体系不完整的一个经济体 and even the financial system is not complete as an economy 融入到全球化的过程 In the process of Globalization, 所以中国一定会 China must 创造出一个新的模式 create a new model 人民币走了一条很聪明的路 Yuan choose a clever way 而这条道路上 While in this road 未来之路 which to the future, 该特别注意的风险是什么 what kinds of risks we should pay special attention to 来 请 please 43:55 谭雅玲: 我到不认为它是 I don't think it is 很聪明的路线 a smart route 我觉得它是一个投机的路线 I think it is a speculative route 因为它还要做很多的基本功 Because it will do a lot of basic things 它的基本功如果做不到的话 If without basic things, 它要实现国际化 realizing the internationalization 应该它的风险很大 will be a great risk 44:06 胡一虎:我们现在还没有做到位 We have not done well 44:08 谭雅玲:我觉得现在我们的专业化程度 I think our specialized degree, 和这个技术化程度 the technical level 经验化程度不多 不足 and experience level are deficiency 很显然的一个例子 Apparently, an example is that 中国有全世界最多的外汇储备 China has the world's largest foreign exchange reserves 中国是全世界最小的外汇市场 and China is the world's smallest foreign exchange market 是没有开放的外汇市场 There is no open foreign exchange market 人民币国际化的根基从哪儿来 Where is the base of RMB internationalization 国际上主要看外汇市场 Internationally, it focuses on foreign exchange market 外汇市场是主线 The foreign exchange market is the main line 会定价资产价格 Price will be made 会定价商品价格 Price of commodity will be made 中国的外汇市场呢 China's foreign exchange market 这是我们最大的一个缺陷 is our biggest defect 没有完整的市场 Without a complete market, 没有健全的市场 There is not a perfect market 它就不会有很好的专业 There is not a very good profession, 很好的技术和很好的经验 good technique and good experience 人民币国际化 The internationalization of RMB 要走的是扎实之路 should in solid road 44:43