5力分析(财务报告)盈利能力,效率,流动比率,投资,资产负债

5力分析(财务)盈利能力,效率,流动比率,投资,资产负债 PROFITABILITY (盈利能力) EFFICIENCY(效率) LIQUIDITY(流动比率) INVESTMENT(投资) GEARING(资产负债) PROFITABILITY (盈利能力) Formula condition Comments Names 越高越好 高低直接体现公司的竞争力 ?毛利 直接因素是产品成本和产品价 格 Goss profit 毛利=(销售额-销售成本)/销售额 x 100% ?净利润 P.B.I.T Net 销售 Profit 分销成本 管理费用 净利润% =(企业息前税前利润PBIT/销售额)×100% 注:营业利润=息税前利润 已投资资本Target is to ?回报(率) achieve as Return on high as Capital possible. Employed 已投资资本回报(率)=(企业息前税前利润/资本收益) ×100% , Capital Employed = Ordinary shares + reserves + long term loans + leases +hire purchase agreements 运用资本=普通股+储备+长期贷款+租赁+租购协议 EFFICIENCY(效率) 较高的比率意味较高示投资在固定资产或扩固定资产生 着更大的固定资大的可能 产力 产的使用效率 Fixed Asset 固定资产生产力=销售收入 Productivit y 通常的贸易信贷缺乏控制收集来自客户所欠款应收账款 是30 - 60天之项。可能的正当理由:延长信贷Debtors 间。规范是约45提供增加销售;小型企业与大型 天 多国公司打交道。比较需要。 应收款项(应收账款)控制=应收账款×365 Again usual 债权人(应Poor financial trade credit is 付)控制 management. Business between 30 – 60 Creditors needs to take full days ( Payables advantage of “free credit”. ) Control 债权人(应付)控制= (贸易债权人/销售成本)×365 Possible valid reasons : Early payments to obtain discounts. Comparators needed. 目的是保持尽可库存周转天 能低 数 Stock Turnover in 库存周转天数=(库存/销售收入) x 365 days days 目的是保持尽可以资助新(扩)固定资产 运用资本 能高的 Capital employed Turnover 运用资本=营业额/ 营业额资本雇用 LIQUIDITY(流动比率) 规范是1.5 - 2.0a、流动比率高低反映企业承受流动比率 之间。良好的财务流动资产贬值能力和偿还中、Current 管理之间的1 - 短期债务能力的强弱; Ratio 1.5和财务管理不 b、流动比率越高，表明企业流 善是2.5以上 动资产占用资金来源于结构性流动比率=流动资产/流动负债 负债的越多，企业投入生产,经(Norm is between 1.5 – 2.0. Good financial 营的营运资本越多，企业偿还management is between 1 – 1.5 and poor financial 债务的能力就越强; management is 2.5 and above.) c、一般认为比率值为2时比较 合理，但要求中国企业流动比 汽车1.1 房地产1.2 制药1.25 建材1.25 化工1.2 家电1.5 啤率达到2对大多数不实际 酒1.75 d、正常情况下，部分行业的流 计算机2 电子1.45 商业1.65 机械1.8 玻璃1.3 食动比率参考如下: 品>2 饭店>2 规范1.0 - 速动比率反应了公司的短期偿速动比率 1.5。 (除超市是债能力，合理的最低速动比率是Quick 0.4)，如果比值1。当商店几乎没有应收帐款，Ratio <1.0业务在技术比率会大大低于1. ? 上是资不抵债。危速动比率=(流动资产 - 库存)/流动负债 险～财务管理不Norm 1.0 – 1.5. ( Except supermarkets which are 0.4 ) 善，如果> 2.0 If ratio is < 1.0 the business is technically insolvent. 良好的财务管理RISKY ! Poor financial management if > 2.0 = 1.0，甚至<1.0 Good financial management if = 1.0 or even < 1.0 INVESTMENT(投资) 尽可能的高 营业额和利润的影响 每股盈利 Earning?s Per share 每股盈利=税后利润和利息/普通股数目 Target is as high as possible. So for every ?1 ( 1 share ) invested the owners are getting ?0.61 in 1999 银行的约盖的外新的销售/利润 利息保障倍 观。 4 - 6个“安数 全”。如果太低，Interest 他们紧张，可 Cover 利息保障倍数=税前利润和利息/贷款利息 Bank?s look for a cover of approx. 4 – 6 for „safety?. If too low they get nervous and may feel the company is a risk and „call in? any overdraft, or even worse petition for liquidation to obtain repayment of loans GEARING(资产负债) 齿轮比1的范围高负债与低利润的比例，可以减GEARING( 是: 少每股收益显著，甚至推入业务资产负债) 低负债率的亏损。 20, - 35,的低杠杆比率= 风险 (长期贷款 中“35, - 55,，/就业的总 中等风险 资本) 高“55,以上。高×100, 风险。 或资本负债 比率=(长 期贷款/条 例股东资 金)×100, 资产周转率(Asset Turnover) ? 1. 毛利=(销售额-销售成本)/销售额 x 100% P.S : 毛利率,毛利润/销售收入 (Gross profit margin = gross profit/sales ) 毛利润(gross profit / gross margin ) 毛利率(gross profit margin ,rate of margin; rate of gross profit) 销售收入(sales revenue/ sales proceeds ) 销售利率,(净利,销售收入)×100, Sales rate=(Net profitles/sales revenue)x100% 毛利分析Comments:This should be maintained as high as possible. 从图表可以看出1999 到2002 可以看出平均毛利下降了6%, 下降的趋势 P.s:毛利率的高低直接体现公司的竞争力，在个股分化严重的市场中公司的竞争力尤为重要。影响毛利率高低的直接因素是产品成本和产品价格，产品成本取决于原材料价格和生产技术水平，产品价格取决于产品竞争力、区域供求关系、市场定价权等。 ? 净利润% =(企业息前税前利润PBIT/销售额)×100% 注:营业利润=息税前利润 资产净利率是企业净利与平均资产总额的百分比，企业资产的利用效果，指标越高，表明资产的利用效果越好，企业在增收节支和加速资金周转方面取得了良好效果。 Assets net interest margin is the percentage of corporate net income and average total assets, the use of corporate assets, the higher the index, shows that the assets of the use of the better, increase revenue and accelerate cash flow and achieved good results. 资产净利率,资产周转率×销售净利率 或者 资产净利率,销售收入,资产平均总额×年销售净利润,年销售 收入 Asset net interest rate = asset turnover × sales net interest rates or asset net interest rate = sales revenue/assets total average) sales net profit/a year in sales ? 3. Return on Capital Employed% = *Profit before interest and tax x 100% Capital Employed Target is to achieve as high as possible. Additional long term capital finance might be needed for expansion ( new product line ), and sales have not yet been generated from that investment. End of product life cycle !. Change in technology or change in European regulations ( Pollution controls ) forcing new investments. Investigation as to the causes is required, together with comparisons. 可能需要额外的长期资本融资为扩张(新的生产线)，和销售尚未从该投资产生。产品生命周期结束～ 改变在欧洲的法规，迫使新的投资(污染控制)技术或变化。 调查原因是必需的，连同比较。 报告参见: M.B.A. M PLC RATIO’S – SOLUTION PROFITABILITY 1999 2000 2001 2002 1. Gross Profit% = Sales – Cost of Sales x 100% 35% 34% 32% 29% Sales ( Gross Profit = Sales – Cost of sales ) Comments: This should be maintained as high as possible. However there is a 17% reduction from 1999 to 2002. 1999/2000 2000/2001 2001/2002 Sales +11.1% +6.9% +2.9% Cost of Sales +13.0% +9.3% +7.4% Cost of Sales increasing at faster rate than Sales. Investigate cost of sales eg. All direct cost of sales , direct materials, direct wages, direct expenses. Comparisons needed with business sector norm and similar sized business. 1999 2000 2001 2002 2. Net Profit% = *Profit before interest and tax x 100% 15% 14% 10% 9% Sales (*Operating Profit = profit before interest and tax ) Comments: The aim again is to maintain this as high as possible. However it is decreasing as per gross profit, but more significantly year on year. 1999/2000 2000/2001 2001/2002 P.B.I.T +5.9% --22.2% --7.1% Sales +11.1% +6.9% +2.9% Distribution costs +16.7% +14% +25% Administration costs +5.6% +21% --17.4% Perhaps the lack of control over overheads is causing this. Distribution costs appear to be increasing at a much faster rate than sales- almost out of control. Administration costs have at least been reduced in 2001/2 after the very large increase in 2000/1. Investigations are needed into the alarming increase in distribution expenses, together with comparisons. 1999 2000 2001 2002 3. Return on Capital Employed% 46% 40% 28% 24% = *Profit before interest and tax x 100% Capital Employed (*Operating Profit = profit before interest and tax ) ( Capital Employed = Ordinary shares + reserves + long term loans + leases + hire purchase agreements ) Comments: 1999/2000 2000/2001 2001/2002 P.B.I.T. +5.9% --22.2% --7.1% Capital Employed +20.2% +13.5% +4.9% Target is to achieve as high as possible. It is decreasing to almost half it?s value from 1999 to 2002. ( 48% reduction ). Key reasons are that cost of sales and distribution costs are growing at a faster rate than sales. However more to the point, Long Term Capital Employed is increasing rapidly, ie. From 1999 to 2002 +43%.This is mainly due to increasing long term bank loans. Additional long term capital finance might be needed for expansion ( new product line ), and sales have not yet been generated from that investment. End of product life cycle !. Change in technology or change in European regulations ( Pollution controls ) forcing new investments. Investigation as to the causes is required, together with comparisons. EFFICIENCY 1999 2000 2001 2002 4. Fixed Asset Productivity = Sales 7.64 5.85 4.86 5.2 Fixed Assets Comments: 1999/2000 2000/2001 2001/2002 Sales +11.1% +6.9% +2.9% Fixed Assets +45.2% +28.6% --3.7% A higher ratio signifies greater efficiency in the use of Fixed Assets. Trend is decreasing until a slight improvement in 2002. The % growth in Sales is lower than the % growth in Fixed Assets. This signifies the possible new investment in Fixed Assets or expansion. No return by way of increased sales has been generated from that investment yet. Comparators needed. 1999 2000 2001 2002 5. Debtors ( Receivables )Control = 65 days 73 days 79 days 82days Debtors x 365 Sales Comments: Usual trade credit is between 30 – 60 days. Norm is approx 45 days. The aim is to collect money due as quickly as possible The trend is increasing and clearly very high. Poor financial management . Lack of control over collection of money due from customers. Possible valid reasons : Extended credit offered to increase sales; Small business dealing with large or multi-national company. Comparators needed. 1999 2000 2001 2002 6. Creditors ( Payables ) Control = 35 days 34 days 29 days 25days Trade Creditors x 365 Cost of Sales Comments: Again usual trade credit is between 30 – 60 days. Trend is reducing to a very low level. Business is paying its bills far too quickly. Poor financial management. Business needs to take full advantage of “free credit”. Possible valid reasons : Early payments to obtain discounts. Comparators needed. 1999 2000 2001 2002 7. Stock Turnover in days = Stock x 365 77 days 76 days 66 days 54days Cost of Sales Comments: Aim is to maintain as low as possible. The trend is going the right way but is still high. Does the business need 54 days of material usage in stock/stores?. Poor financial management. Costs of holding and financing stocks are high. J.I.T. agreement could be instigated. Reasons for high levels could be : Jewellery business; world shortage of supplies etc.; Comparisons are needed. 1999 2000 2001 2002 8. Capital employed = Sales Turnover 3.15 2.91 2.75 2.69 Turnover Capital Employed Comments: Aim is to maintain as high as possible. Trend is reducing. Less sales being achieved from capital base. Follows on from the results in ratios 3 and 4. L.T. money borrowed to finance new fixed assets ( expansion ), and sales have not come through yet. LIQUIDITY 1999 2000 2001 2002 9. Current Ratio = Current Assets 2.37 2.03 1.88 2.19 Current liabilities Comments: Norm is between 1.5 – 2.0. Good financial management is between 1 – 1.5 and poor financial management is 2.5 and above. If too low its RISKY ! Trend is reducing from 1999 to 2001, but increasing again in 2002. Inefficient management of current assets and current liabilities. Investigate Stocks; Debtors; Creditors. See comments at earlier ratios 5,6,7. Comparisons are needed. 1999 2000 2001 2002 10. Quick Ratio = Current Assets – 1.36 1.20 1.20 1.49 Stock Current Liabilities Comments: Norm 1.0 – 1.5. ( Except supermarkets which are 0.4 ) If ratio is < 1.0 the business is technically insolvent. RISKY ! Poor financial management if > 2.0 Good financial management if = 1.0 or even < 1.0, if bank and suppliers allow it. Trend is reducing from 1999 to 2001, but increases again in 2002.See earlier ratios 5 and 6 for reasons. Comparisons are needed. INVESTMENT 1999 2000 2001 2002 11. Earning?s Per share ?0.61 ?0.67 ?0.39 ?0.28 = Profit after tax and interest Number of ordinary shares Comments: Target is as high as possible. So for every ?1 ( 1 share ) invested the owners are getting ?0.61 in 1999 but this reduces down to only ?0.28 in 2002. This is as a consequence of falling Gross and Net Profits, and the overall R.O.C.E. This is influenced by expansion – a temporary phase of the business when investment in new products ( fixed assets ) has not worked its way through into sales turnover and profits. Comparisons are needed. 1999 2000 2001 2002 12. Interest Cover 0 18 7 5.9 = Profit before tax and interest Interest on loans Comments: Bank?s look for a cover of approx. 4 – 6 for „safety?. If too low they get nervous and may feel the company is a risk and „call in? any overdraft, or even worse petition for liquidation to obtain repayment of loans. The trend is falling from a very secure 18 in 2000 to 5.9 in 2002 which is just OK. If the pattern continues it may worry the bank. The reason is because of the large L.T. Loans being taken up, and profits are falling in relative terms. Ie. New sales/profits are not coming through yet. GEARING Ratio1 1999 2000 2001 2002 13. Gearing = Long Term Loans x 100% 0% 11.2% 19.8% 20.7% *Total Capital Employed *(Total Capital Employed = Long Term Loans + Shareholders Funds) Ratio 2 26.1% OR Gearing = Long Term Loans x 0% 12.6% 24.6% 100% Ord. Shareholders Funds Comments: Range of gearing for ratio 1 is : Low Gearing 20% - 35% Low risk Medium “ 35% - 55% Medium risk High “ 55% and above. High risk. This business has had 0% gearing in 1999 but seen it rapidly increase to 20.7% in 2002.However this is still in the low range, and as long as the business is profitable can be beneficial to shareholders.( E.P.S.) Conversely a high gearing ratio with low profits can reduce EPS significantly and even push the business into making losses. ? 速动比率,速动资产/流动负债 (适当为1) 注:速动资产,货币资金，短期投资，应收账款，应收票据 ,流动资产,存货,预付账款,待摊费用,待处理流动资产损失 保守速动比率,(现金，证券，应收账款)/流动负债 a、一般认为，企业速动比率为1时比较安全; b、部分行业的速动比率参考如下: 汽车0.85 房地产0.65 制药0.90 建材0.90 化工0.90 啤酒0.90 计算机1.25 电子0.95 商业0.45 机械0.90 玻璃0.45 餐饮>2 使用流(速)动比率的几点不足: a、各行业的存货流动性和变现性有较大差别，流动比率指标不能反映由于流动资产中存 货不等造成的偿债能力差别，因此需要用存货周转天数指标补充说明; b、在计算流动比率时包括了变现能力较差的存货和无法变现的待摊费用，影响了该指标 短期偿债能力的可靠性，需要用速动比率指标作补充; c、流(速)动比率不能反映企业的日现金流量; d、流(速)动比率只反映报告日期的静态状况，企业很容易通过一些临时或账面处 理，形成账面指标不实，如通过虚列应收账款，少提准备，提前确认销售或将下一年 度赊销提前列账，少转销售成本增加存款金额等; e、流(速)比率不能量化地反映潜在的变现能力因素和短期债务。 具体讲，增加企业变现能力的因素主要有: ?、可动用的银行贷款指标; ?、准备很快变现的长期资产; ?、偿债能力的信誉。 具体讲，增加企业短期债务的因素主要有: ?、记录的或有负债; ?、担保责任引起的负债。 C、存货周转天数,平均存货额/年销售成本×365天 a、平均存货以年初、年末数平均; b、通常用年销售收入代替公式中分母年销售成本来计算存货的周转天数，这样计算的结 果比实际周转天数要长，周转次数比实际次数要少; c、存货周转天数,平均存货额/年销售收入×360天 d、在产品盈利率不变的情况下，存货周转天数越短，说明企业销售能力和获利能力越高， 企业偿还短期债务的能力越强。 e、部分行业存货周转天数参考如下: 汽车131天 制药356天 建材100天 化工101天 家电151天 电子95天 日用品62天 商业30天 D、平均收账期(账龄),应收账款平均余额/销售收入×360天 a、因销售收入中包括现金销售的部分，因此不能真正反映账款的平均账龄，准确计算应 以全年赊销商品收入总额代替。 平均收账期,应收账款平均余额/年赊销收入总额×360天 b、部分行业平均收账期参考如下: 汽车24天 冶金56天 机加工39天 化工61天 家电91天 电子90天 食品50天 服装36天 E、企业实现利润:可直接动用，与短期偿债能力成正比。 F、经营现金比率,经营活动现金净流量/流动负债 G、速冻资产够用天数,速动资产/预计营业支出总额×365天