肌阵挛性小脑协调不能研究进展

基于交通量数据挖掘的路面养护决策优化方法及应用让世界更畅通大数据与智慧公路养护管理技术论坛公路建设与养护技术、材料及装备交通运输行业研发中心中国交建公路路面养护技术研发中心董元帅博士中国交建公路路面养护技术研发中心公路建设与养护技术、材料及装备交通运输行业研发中心助力发展三年跨越中国公路工程咨询集团有限公司前言之前研发中心简介：ServiceDescriptionofthecompany’sservice功能性道路铺装业务方向研发中心简介：公路全资产养护管理平台养护装备研发新型养护处治技术研发前言之前课题研究参编规范科技奖项技术服务▪已有技术成果转化显著▪大量实体工程▪成果转化近3个亿▪行业标准3部▪团体标准5部▪地方标准3部▪15年北京市科学技术一等奖▪16年中交“五小”创新铜奖▪17年中交科技进步二等奖▪17年公路学会科技进步二等奖前言之前养护类上位规范成立三年多来……▪30余项▪专利授权10余项，受理14项▪SCI2篇、EI5篇Contents目录三、交通量数据在养护决策中的应用一、背景及概述四、路面养护决策示例二、交通量数据采集及预测十九大提出“交通强国”目标公路养护事业方兴未艾97.93%2.07%公路养护里程公路其他里程1.1背景一、背景及概述1.1背景一、背景及概述背景◆主动养护◆预防性养护◆科学决策1.2大数据概述一、背景及概述大数据特征大数据：是指无法在一定时间范围内用常规软件工具进行捕捉、管理和处理的数据集合，是需要新处理模式才能具有更强的决策力、洞察发现力和流程优化能力的海量、高增长率和多样化的信息资产。大数据具备的特征如下：大量、高速、多样、低价值密度、真实性。1.2大数据概述一、背景及概述道路运维阶段数据集合基础设施数据•路基•路面•桥梁•隧道•交通工程及沿线设施•绿化•房建•……路况检测数据•交通量轴载•日常巡查•定期检查与评定•专项检查与评定•养护历史•……养护决策及设计数据•养护方案•道路性能衰变模型•养护措施库•养护资金计划•……养护工程数据•修复工程招投标及施工资料•专项工程招投标及施工资料•应急救援文件•工程计量•现场视频监控•……气候环境数据•温度•湿度•传感器监测数据•……Contents目录一、背景及概述二、交通量数据采集及挖掘四、路面养护决策示例三、交通量数据在养护决策中的应用2.1交通量大数据采集采集方法➢观测站、收费站采集➢人工设观测点采集➢动态称重系统◆连续采集交通量、轴载◆压电膜传感器效率低，且无法采集到各车型的轴载数据23451历年分区县经济指标历年分区县人口指标分市域十三五规划历年高速公路收费流水数据历年国省道交调数据历年分市域铁路、公路客货运量历年分市域机动车保有量矿产资源分布及主要矿区历年矿产量气象及重大灾害数据景区分布及主要景区历年游客量历年高速公路通车、养护、改扩建数据历年高速公路路网、国省道路网周边省份路网数据未来公路网、铁路网规划社会经济统计数据交通运输统计数据其它数据养护数据路网数据大数据基础2.2交通量数据挖掘交通量数据挖掘基础OD交通量调查人员组织困难、费用高四阶段法OD交通量调查仅包含有限时间、局部、静态路网数据“专家经验”标定参数、人为误差较大考虑的影响因素较少全路网全样本数据应用大数据技术进行交通量预测动态路网数据参与模型计算官方统计资料+爬虫数据提炼上百个影响因子机器学习方法自动标定参数2.3交通量数据预测2.3交通量数据预测路网拓扑关系模型交通总量预测模型区域交通分布预测模型路段交通预测模型完全由机器学习模型取代大数据方法标定参数提升精度大数据方法标定参数提升精度路网密度路网结构公共财政收入人均可支配收入固定资产投资社会经济路网年龄路网总体结构客运量煤炭价格矿产量客货周转率汽车保有量路网拥堵程度路网拥堵程度降维主成分社会经济指标交通运输指标上百个影响因子······其他2.3交通量数据预测时间维度：加入更长的时间序列数据，发掘出长期的交通量增长模式。空间维度：加入其它省市的数据及路网，学习出全局的交通量变化规律。技术维度：随着更多的数据加入，不断增加模型的深度，构建更实用的交通量预测模型。迭代更新-持续改进2.3交通量数据预测Contents目录一、背景及概述三、交通量数据在养护决策中的应用四、路面养护决策示例二、交通量数据采集及预测养护决策模式自动匹配历史路况资料历史养护方案社会经济环境资料交通量预测道路健康预警道路指标预测养护决策模型规划期养护决策方案实施养护方案数据评定数据采集多源数据整合大数据养护分析子系统真实数据修正养护业务管理3.1路面养护决策流程•各收费站、治超站•各车型车辆数分布辅助养护决策换算成标准轴载各类车型折算系数历史交通量预测交通量大数据各年累计当量轴载通车至今累计当量轴载计算剩余寿命“交通量-路面性能”衰变预测大中修设计依据资金优化排序因素交通量数据贯穿路面养护决策3.2基于交通量数据的动态路段划分交通量路段区间性方向性动态性路段一次划分路段二次划分020406080100120K3982K3992K4002K4012K4022K4032K4042K4052K4062K4072K4082K4092K4102K4112K4122K4132K4142K4152PCI与PSSI，％0246810121416剩余寿命，年PSSIPCI剩余寿命计算剩余寿命交通量反算法FWD反算法科学评估全线不同路段的承载能力，为养护路段划分提供依据07.8lg32.2)1(10944.0)5.12.4lg(2.0)1lg(36.9lg19.518−+++−+−++=RoRMSNPSISNSZN100*1*NRLLNe=−1miiNN==1[(1)1]tNeN+−=3.2基于交通量数据的动态路段划分静态路段分界桩号动态路段分界桩号静态路段1静态路段2静态路段3动态路段1动态路段2动态路段3动态路段4动态路段53.3基于交通量数据的动态路段划分3.4基于交通量&路况关系的路面性能衰变模型模型分类原路面模型养护后模型模型应用➢规划各年度路况测算➢预防性养护最佳时机确定➢各年度性能预测路况数据更新模型校正模型初始化传统方式改进方式时间&路面性能指标（直接关联）交通量&路面性能指标（通过时间维度建立关联）时间&交通量（实时对应）维度一：时间维度二：交通量维度三：路面性能指标3.4基于交通量&路况关系的路面性能衰变模型资金排序因素养护方案优化资金与路况需求平衡根据设定的资金限额安排养护路段，实现资金与路况需求平衡根据用户组合的资金排序因素，对优先级别高的路段优先安排，使有限养护资源得到合理安排▪公路等级▪年累计当量轴载▪路况指标（PCI、RDI……）▪剩余寿命计算路段优先级因子可根据需要对排序因素动态组合资源优化3.6资金优化分配Contents目录一、背景及概述四、路面养护决策示例三、交通量数据在养护决策中的应用二、交通量数据采集及预测基础数据路况评定养护决策业务管理◆交通量大数据预测及应用◆全面融入路面预防性养护成套技术体系◆路面性能模型实时校正◆资金、目标双重优化方案◆多用户、多层级养护决策◆多版本、多终端养护巡查系统◆多维度统计报表全链条数据检查与纠错GIS实时联动4.1中咨路面养护决策管理平台4.1中咨路面养护决策管理平台4.2养护决策示例应用——山西某国道交通量路段划分◆全线共设豆罗、神堂堡、石墙沟等6个观测站◆结合静态属性界限值的划分，将全线上行、下行各划分为19、18个静态路段4.2养护决策示例应用——山西某国道剩余寿命计算路段交通量车型数据路段年累计当量轴载路段剩余寿命全线剩余寿命分布变化图4.2养护决策示例应用——山西某国道多年度养护规划（2018~2026年）2016年1101001301001304001305001306001307001401051401061401071401081401091401101401211401221401231401811402111402121402211402221402231402241402251402261402271403111403211403221404111404211404231404241404251404261404271404281404291404301404311404811405021405211405221405241405811406021406031406211406221406231406241407021407211407221407231407241407251407261407271407281407291407811408021408211408221408231408241408251408261408271408281408291408301408811408821409021409211409221409231409241409251409261409271409281409291409301409311409321409811410021410211410221410231410241410251410261410271410281410291410301410311410321410331410341410811410821411021411211411221411231411241411251411261411271411281411291411301411811411821501001501241506001506221509004101004107004112006101006106016106026108006108216108221101000001017013311103170342642571711708010636945285000000000000000000002512213331368491802000000000011100002001103510244065635303434354735211780000000000000000000000000011113116544141160000300284651301000166326411154911246181114437114285520724462375123200211867374171755631811913914111800241518931100122392549135021124895121414137729125462799371429228631265326562388916443847009902940151135565912801011960370262251353858315428380116825081151191020014234112080046650327713040001605140081102170001100000000010970266456110142039594298223114258721495164101000721733157614190429644492121266233314100000000000012151164516432310114133161101131011536700001432211312901130500030455865851600119122114211106292144141671336000001026771433693232123422137171312410226521724864712930168831846673311307545324717386310317031257665565556918232113900100210103741062914134502701910109194717204107111779215913062110036065401124960161130600010136012168755130236391495712200014318000000000000000004861186131100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