美国贸易逆差归咎于中国

美国贸易逆差归咎于中国？ 美国贸易逆差归咎于中国？ Populism and China’s trade tensions with the west Protectionist sentiments are intensifying in the US where the rhetoric of the incoming administration blames China for America’s large trade deficits and job losses. In contrast, most policymakers in Europe have advocated a more considered position to placate populist feelings.    在保护主义情绪越来越浓厚的美国，新一届政府将本国巨额贸易逆差和就业岗位流失归咎于中国。相比之下，欧洲多数政策制定者主张用一种更为谨慎的立场来平息民粹主义情绪。 That both the US and to a lesser extent the EU have such deficits provides some credibility for the concerns but the logic is flawed. Aside from their bilateral deficits, there are differences between the two because the EU is now generating large overall trade surpluses while America’s persistent overall deficits have triggered bouts of insecurity in which China has become an easy target. The EU story is also more complicated because some members have significant bilateral deficits with China but others — such as Germany — are running large surpluses. This explains why anti-China sentiment in the EU is more diffuse.    美国以及欧盟（在较小程度上）都存在对华贸易逆差，为此类担忧提供了一定的可信性，但其中的逻辑破绽百出。除了与中国都有双边贸易逆差之外，美欧之间存在许多差异——欧盟目前有巨大的总体贸易顺差，而美国长期以来的总体贸易逆差引发了一波又一波的不安全感，中国很容易就成为了这种情绪针对的目标。欧盟的情况也更加复杂，有些成员国与中国之间存在巨大的双边贸易逆差，但有些国家（如德国）对中国却存在巨额顺差。这就可以解释为什么欧盟境内的反华情绪较为分散。 There is no direct link between the emergence of America’s overall trade deficits and China’s surpluses. Neither is it true, as some claim, that China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation in 2001 gave it an unfair advantage.    美国的总体贸易逆差与中国的顺差之间没有直接联系。另外有些人宣称，中国2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)为其带来了不公平优势，这也并非事实。 The confusion comes from misinterpreting the implications of China being the point of final assembly and shipping to the west of parts largely produced by other Asian countries. Studies by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have shown how difficult it is to determine the country origin for the value of finished products that involve trade in parts and components. As Figure 1 shows, after China joined the WTO, its trade surpluses with the west surged as it began importing parts from other Asian partners that were then assembled and exported to the US and EU. Much of the export surplus from its assembly activities was then used to import commodities to support infrastructure investments. In sum, China has a structural trade surplus with the US and EU that is largely offset by its deficits with other countries.     这种混淆源自对中国在全球产业链中的位置——中国进口主要由亚洲其他国家生产的零部件、然后组装并输往西方——的曲解。经合组织(OECD)的研究证明了要为涉及零部件贸易的最终产品的价值确定原产国是多么困难。如图1所示，加入WTO后，随着中国开始从亚洲其他合作伙伴进口部件、组装并出口至美国和欧盟，中国对西方的贸易顺差才出现激增。中国组装活动带来的出口顺差紧接着大部分被用于进口大宗商品以支撑基础设施投资。总之，中国与美国和欧盟之间存在一种结构性贸易顺差，且其中多半被与其他国家的逆差抵消。 To see the real picture we need to look at trade balances from both an overall and a bilateral perspective. America’s overall trade deficit became huge around the late 1990s and began to moderate only about 2009 with the global financial crisis (see Figure 2). But China’s trade surplus did not become significant until around 2005. How can China be responsible for the US’s overall trade deficit when this emerged long before China even became an export power?    要弄清实际情况，我们需要从总体贸易和双边贸易两个视角看待贸易平衡。美国的总体贸易逆差大约在上世纪90年代末变得巨大，直到全球金融危机期间的2009年前后才开始出现放缓（见图2）。但中国的贸易顺差直至2005年前后才开始变得很大。既然美国的总体贸易逆差在中国成为出口大国之前就存在很久了，怎么还能让中国对此负责呢？ As for the EU, historically its overall trade has been roughly in balance given the fiscal and exchange rate policies that govern its members. It turned,strongly positive only in recent years, making it now comparable to China’s.    至于欧盟，得益于各成员国实行的财政和汇率政策，历史上欧盟的总体贸易大致处于平衡状态。欧盟在最近几年才出现较大的顺差，并且其规模已能够与中国相比。 America’s trade deficit is the result of sizeable government deficits and households consuming beyond their means. Moreover, since the dollar is the dominant global reserve currency, it is chronically overvalued and thus cannot adjust to help reduce trade deficits. In such circumstances, a large overall trade deficit for the US is inevitable; which countries show up as the source of the offsetting bilateral trade surpluses is incidental.    美国的贸易逆差是其庞大财政赤字及家庭入不敷出的消费习惯的结果。此外，因为美元是全球最重要的储备货币，其币值长期被高估，因此无法调整以帮助减少贸易逆差。在这种情况下，出现巨额总体贸易逆差对美国来说是不可避免的，而哪些国家成为对应双边贸易顺差的来源是偶然的。 America has traditionally generated large trade deficits with east Asia, and in the 1990s these were concentrated among the more developed economies, notably Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. US manufactured imports from the region have remained at about 45 per cent of the country’s total manufactured imports over the past several decades. But China gradually captured an increasing share of Asia’s exports to the US as the last stop in the regional assembly chain after it joined the WTO. In the early 1990s, its share was less than 10 per cent but since 2001, it has risen to around 60 per cent. Thus to link US trade deficits with China’s surpluses is misleading. It is really about deficits with east Asia more generally. This has also been true for the EU.    美国对东亚历来都存在巨大的贸易逆差，上世纪90年代，这些逆差主要集中在较发达经济体，尤其是日本、韩国和台湾。过去几十年来，来自东亚的制成品进口一直占美国总制成品进口的45%左右。但自中国入世之后，中国作为地区组装链条上最后一站在亚洲对美出口中所占份额逐渐扩大。上世纪90年代初，中国所占份额不到10%，但自2001年以来，这一比例已升至60%左右。因此，将美国的贸易逆差与中国的贸易顺差联系起来颇具误导性。美国贸易逆差其实是对更广泛的东亚的逆差。对欧盟来说也是这个道理。