日元升值和日本股市的关系

日元升值和日本股市的关系 2007-12-04 09:33:11| 分类: 经济生活 | 标签: |字号大中小 订阅 最近老是在各个券商和其他相关人士的言论中说，人民币升值，A股必然上涨，到底人民币升值和中国股市的关联如何,也许从和现在情况最相似的日本可以找到借鉴。关于日元和日本股市的关系，我从网上 转抄了一篇分析，大家会有自己的感悟的。 日元升值与日本股市相关性不明显。 在1973,1989年期间，日元汇率有升有降，但股市整体呈上涨趋势。如果将日元升值对股市的影响定义为估值水平的提升，则除了1985,1987年外，日元汇率与日本股市之间并没有明显的正相关性，本币升 值能否转化为推动股市上涨的因素，还取决于政府的宏观经济政策和当时的宏观经济环境。 长期盈利增长推动多数板块分享牛市果实。 在1973,1989年期间，市场平均上涨了20.23倍，涨幅最大的电信板块上涨64.3倍，最小的消费品也上涨了15.4倍，大多数行业涨幅位于20倍左右，与市场平均水平接近。而且，除电信板块外，大多数行业板块的涨幅与其盈利增幅基本相称。可见，长期而言，盈利增长仍是推动股价上涨的核心因素，板块差 距并不明显。 不同阶段板块现出轮涨特征。 最后，我们注意到，不同阶段的热点很少延续，而且往往在前一阶段涨幅居前的板块，下一阶段涨幅很有 可能落后于市场;而在前一阶段涨幅垫底的板块，在下一阶段跑赢市场的概率却很大。 一、1960年,1990年的日元汇率走势 二战后，世界政治经济格局重新排列，美国成为当之无愧的强国，美元成为国际结算的主要货币，绝大多数国家都采取了盯住美元的固定汇率制度，日本也不例外。自二战后,1970年，日元对美元的汇率基本固定在360:1的水平。自1971年开始，日本官方公布的日元对美元汇率开始出现变动，之后日元经历了三 轮明显的升值和两次轻微的贬值，详见图1。 Green Tang town middle school young teachers professional development status survey report Luton report summary based on completely found out I school--green Tang town middle school young teachers professional growth of basic situation, we subject group determine has this times research child subject--green Tang town middle school young teachers of professional development status of survey, aimed at through investigation, inquiry I school young teachers of professional growth status, looking for professional growth path, and through research, excavations some can effective upgrade young teachers professional growth of good measures, and good approach, For my school teachers, especially younger teachers professional development proposals so as to enhance the effectiveness of young teachers ' professional development to guide the work, targeted. Keywords: young teacher professional development survey, introduction in the country carrying out the scientific concept of development under the background of the times, and narrowing the development gap between urban and rural areas, is the proper meaning. Improving rural primary and secondary school level and quality will naturally be to achieve balanced development of urban and rural education must urgently address the reality of the subject. But in today's society attaches great importance to the quality of education, "school choice hot" continues unabated, reflecting the regional imbalance in the allocation of teachers; " School choice hot "is the substance behind the" optional. " In other words, the teacher's specialization levels directly determine the quality of school education level, social 资料来源:国研网、《当代世界经济实用大全》。其中汇率升值,当年日元对美元官方平均汇率/基年日元对美元官方平均汇率，基年取1960年值，当时日元对美元汇率,360:1;官方汇率为日本官方公布的日 元对美元汇率年均值。 自1970年,1990年日元经历的三轮升值和两次贬值持续时间以及汇率变动幅度如表1所示。其中三轮升值持续时间均是3年左右，但升值幅度在逐步扩大。1971年,1973年期间累计升值32.5%，年均升值9.83%;1976,1978年累计升值41.03%，年均升值12.14%;1986,1988年累计升值86.14%，年均升值23.01%。经历这三轮升值后，到1988年，日元在18年间累计对美元升值幅度达180.92%，年均升值5.9%。后人关注最多的是1986,1988年的升值，因为这一轮升值幅度最大，对股市和日本经济产生的影 响也最大。 二、日元汇率走势与日本股市比较 Green Tang town middle school young teachers professional development status survey report Luton report summary based on completely found out I school--green Tang town middle school young teachers professional growth of basic situation, we subject group determine has this times research child subject--green Tang town middle school young teachers of professional development status of survey, aimed at through investigation, inquiry I school young teachers of professional growth status, looking for professional growth path, and through research, excavations some can effective upgrade young teachers professional growth of good measures, and good approach, For my school teachers, especially younger teachers professional development proposals so as to enhance the effectiveness of young teachers ' professional development to guide the work, targeted. Keywords: young teacher professional development survey, introduction in the country carrying out the scientific concept of development under the background of the times, and narrowing the development gap between urban and rural areas, is the proper meaning. Improving rural primary and secondary school level and quality will naturally be to achieve balanced development of urban and rural education must urgently address the reality of the subject. But in today's society attaches great importance to the quality of education, "school choice hot" continues unabated, reflecting the regional imbalance in the allocation of teachers; " School choice hot "is the substance behind the" optional. " In other words, the teacher's specialization levels directly determine the quality of school education level, social 为了弄清楚本币升值与股市的关系，首先要弄清楚股票的定价因素和本币升值对这些定价因素的影响。概括起来，影响股票定价的因素无非是两个，一是企业盈利增长，二是估值提升。本币升值除对少数拥有大量外币负债或原材料以进口为主的公司盈利有正面影响外，对整个经济起到的是紧缩作用，因此对整个市场的盈利应该不会有正面影响。这样推理下来，如果本币升值对股市有影响，从逻辑上讲，影响的应该是市场的估值水平，这可能由于外部套利资金流入导致股市供求关系失衡所引致。这样一来，就可以通过观 察本币升值期间股市估值水平的变化，来判断本币升值对本国股市是否存在前后一致的影响。 具体到日本，在1973年,1989年期间，尽管经历了两次石油危机，而且期间日元汇率也是有升有降， 但日本股市整体却呈上涨趋势，详见表2。 我们注意到，在1973,1979年期间，日经指数的市盈率基本围绕20倍左右波动，市场估值水平并没有随着日元升值而得到提升，日本股市的上涨主要由企业盈利增长推动。在1980,1984年的日元贬值期间，日本股市的估值水平也没有明显变化，股指在盈利增长的推动下继续呈上涨态势。但在1985年,1987年期间，日本企业的盈利增长并不明显，股市上涨主要由估值提升推动，期间日经指数的市盈率从20倍左右迅速提升到70倍左右。1987年,1989年由于日本企业普遍存在交叉持股，之前迅速上升的股指使许多大企业都录得可观的投资收益，据统计，丰田汽车在日本泡沫后期所取得的投资收益占公司盈利的一半以上，因此这一阶段日经指数的估值不仅没有上升，反而还有所下降，股市上升主要由企业盈利推动，但这种主 要来自股市和地产价格上涨的投资收益，犹如垒在沙丘上的城堡，极不牢固。 如果我们提出的“本币升值对股市的影响只能体现为市场估值水平的提升”这一假设成立，那么通过观察1973,1989年期间日本股市和汇率走势可以看出，日元升值与日本股市估值水平提升之间并不存在前后一致的正相关性，日元升值之所以能在1985,1987年间推动日本股市估值水平提升，得益于当时日本政府错误的经济政策导致资金过剩，而日本国内经济增长放缓后又未能为这些过剩的资金找到很好的出路，使大量过剩资金转向了房地产和股市等资产市场，日本国民在巨大的财富效应的刺激下随即跟进，最终导 致了那一场影响深远的股市和房市泡沫。 Green Tang town middle school young teachers professional development status survey report Luton report summary based on completely found out I school--green Tang town middle school young teachers professional growth of basic situation, we subject group determine has this times research child subject--green Tang town middle school young teachers of professional development status of survey, aimed at through investigation, inquiry I school young teachers of professional growth status, looking for professional growth path, and through research, excavations some can effective upgrade young teachers professional growth of good measures, and good approach, For my school teachers, especially younger teachers professional development proposals so as to enhance the effectiveness of young teachers ' professional development to guide the work, targeted. Keywords: young teacher professional development survey, introduction in the country carrying out the scientific concept of development under the background of the times, and narrowing the development gap between urban and rural areas, is the proper meaning. Improving rural primary and secondary school level and quality will naturally be to achieve balanced development of urban and rural education must urgently address the reality of the subject. But in today's society attaches great importance to the quality of education, "school choice hot" continues unabated, reflecting the regional imbalance in the allocation of teachers; " School choice hot "is the substance behind the" optional. " In other words, the teacher's specialization levels directly determine the quality of school education level, social 三、日本股市不同时期的行业板块走势分析 在日本长达17年之久的大牛市中，不同时期板块之间的走势出现明显差异。 1(1973,1979年石油危机下能源一枝独秀 在1973年,1979年期间，日本GDP从3047.6亿美元增长到9653.5亿美元，增长了2.17倍，名义GDP年均增长17.92%，实际GDP年均增长4.22%。人均GDP从2843美元增长到8331美元，增长了1.93倍，这一时期是日本经济快速发展的中后期阶段，期间日本出现了明显的通货膨胀，累计贸易顺差为130.44亿美元;汇率升值38.35%，年均升值4.75%;股市累计上涨76%，年均上涨8.41%，但日经指数的估值提升并不明显，股市上涨主要由企业盈利增长推动，本币升值对股市的影响并不明显。 在这一阶段，日本股市中能源板块涨幅最大，上涨306%，是市场平均涨幅76%的4.03倍，其他如健康医疗、消费品、公用事业、科技和电信行业表现也明显强于市场，而银行、地产、原材料和消费服务行业表现则明显弱于市场，详见图2。可以说这一阶段的板块涨幅基本反映了20世纪70年代两次石油危机后能源价格暴涨，日本国内钢铁等原材料工业经历了前期的高速发展阶段后进入停滞阶段，以及消费服务行 业随着人均收入水平的提高而增长的产业特征。 2(1980,1984年电信独领风骚 在1980年,1984年期间，日本GDP从9653.5亿美元增长到12544.1亿美元，增长了29.94%，名义GDP年均增长3.88%，实际GDP年均增长4.22%。人均GDP从8331美元增长到10452美元，增长了25.46%，这一时期日本人均GDP跨越1万美元大关，进入工业化后期，通胀水平得到控制。期间日本外贸收支出现方向性变化，在出口的推动下外贸顺差的绝对规模和占GDP的比重均持续扩大，而同期美国经历了70年代的石油危机后进入失落的10年，日美贸易摩擦明显增加，为日后的日元被动升值埋下了伏Green Tang town middle school young teachers professional development status survey report Luton report summary based on completely found out I school--green Tang town middle school young teachers professional growth of basic situation, we subject group determine has this times research child subject--green Tang town middle school young teachers of professional development status of survey, aimed at through investigation, inquiry I school young teachers of professional growth status, looking for professional growth path, and through research, excavations some can effective upgrade young teachers professional growth of good measures, and good approach, For my school teachers, especially younger teachers professional development proposals so as to enhance the effectiveness of young teachers ' professional development to guide the work, targeted. Keywords: young teacher professional development survey, introduction in the country carrying out the scientific concept of development under the background of the times, and narrowing the development gap between urban and rural areas, is the proper meaning. Improving rural primary and secondary school level and quality will naturally be to achieve balanced development of urban and rural education must urgently address the reality of the subject. But in today's society attaches great importance to the quality of education, "school choice hot" continues unabated, reflecting the regional imbalance in the allocation of teachers; " School choice hot "is the substance behind the" optional. " In other words, the teacher's specialization levels directly determine the quality of school education level, social 笔。这一时期，日元汇率贬值7.74%，日本股市却在企业盈利增长的推动下劲升117%，年均上涨16.76%。 在这一阶段，日本电信股涨幅最大，上涨了866%，是市场平均涨幅的7.40倍;银行股表现也很突出，上涨了316%，是市场平均涨幅的2.7倍;此外科技、健康医疗表现也明显强于市场;而前一阶段涨幅居前的能源板块在这一阶段下跌了1%，地产、消费服务、消费品、保险、原材料和公用事业等板块走势也弱于市场，详见图3。可以说这一阶段的板块涨幅反映了投资人对新兴行业电信、科技未来高速增长的预 期，以及国内货币供应增加后催生的银行资产膨胀和银行规模的扩大。 3(1985,1989年估值泡沫助推地产消费 1985年的“广场协议”成为日本股市的一个重大转折点，日本股市由之前的经济发展和盈利推动转向估值提升，日本央行由于担心升值对经济的紧缩作用，采取了低利率的扩张政策，结果导致日本国内货币供应明显增速，M2占GDP的比重逐年上升，迅速增长的财富使广大投资人将大量资金投向了房地产市场和股市，催生了一轮波澜壮阔的牛市，也为日后的泡沫破灭埋下了伏笔。在这一阶段，日本实际GDP仅增长17.19%，但汇率升值了72.17%，股市上涨了456%，市场估值水平由20倍左右提升到70倍左右。 在这一阶段，具有资产属性的地产、消费服务、公用事业和保险涨幅居于前列，分别上涨了762%、709%、626%和617%;原材料工业经历了前期的低迷后，随着房地产行业的繁荣而复苏，涨幅也高于市场平均水平;而在前两个阶段涨幅居前的科技、电信和健康医疗行业涨幅居后;消费品和工业由于制造业地位的下降，涨幅也落后市场;能源与银行涨幅基本接近市场平均水平。可以说，这一阶段行业板块的涨幅体现了 明显的资产属性，详见图4。 Green Tang town middle school young teachers professional development status survey report Luton report summary based on completely found out I school--green Tang town middle school young teachers professional growth of basic situation, we subject group determine has this times research child subject--green Tang town middle school young teachers of professional development status of survey, aimed at through investigation, inquiry I school young teachers of professional growth status, looking for professional growth path, and through research, excavations some can effective upgrade young teachers professional growth of good measures, and good approach, For my school teachers, especially younger teachers professional development proposals so as to enhance the effectiveness of young teachers ' professional development to guide the work, targeted. Keywords: young teacher professional development survey, introduction in the country carrying out the scientific concept of development under the background of the times, and narrowing the development gap between urban and rural areas, is the proper meaning. Improving rural primary and secondary school level and quality will naturally be to achieve balanced development of urban and rural education must urgently address the reality of the subject. But in today's society attaches great importance to the quality of education, "school choice hot" continues unabated, reflecting the regional imbalance in the allocation of teachers; " School choice hot "is the substance behind the" optional. " In other words, the teacher's specialization levels directly determine the quality of school education level, social 四、日本股市的综合特征 通过分析日本股市在1973,1989年期间长达17年的走势，我们观察到以下特征: 1(盈利增长仍是推动股市上涨的核心因素 Green Tang town middle school young teachers professional development status survey report Luton report summary based on completely found out I school--green Tang town middle school young teachers professional growth of basic situation, we subject group determine has this times research child subject--green Tang town middle school young teachers of professional development status of survey, aimed at through investigation, inquiry I school young teachers of professional growth status, looking for professional growth path, and through research, excavations some can effective upgrade young teachers professional growth of good measures, and good approach, For my school teachers, especially younger teachers professional development proposals so as to enhance the effectiveness of young teachers ' professional development to guide the work, targeted. Keywords: young teacher professional development survey, introduction in the country carrying out the scientific concept of development under the background of the times, and narrowing the development gap between urban and rural areas, is the proper meaning. Improving rural primary and secondary school level and quality will naturally be to achieve balanced development of urban and rural education must urgently address the reality of the subject. But in today's society attaches great importance to the quality of education, "school choice hot" continues unabated, reflecting the regional imbalance in the allocation of teachers; " School choice hot "is the substance behind the" optional. " In other words, the teacher's specialization levels directly determine the quality of school education level, social 如果将1973,1989年作为一个整体来看待，通过图5和图6可以看出，长期来看，推动行业板块上涨的 核心因素仍是盈利增长。在这17年中，除了电信板块的盈利增幅与股价增幅明显偏离外，其他行业的盈利 增幅与股价增幅基上落在均线两侧附近。 2(长期看多少板块均能分享牛市果实 Green Tang town middle school young teachers professional development status survey report Luton report summary based on completely found out I school--green Tang town middle school young teachers professional growth of basic situation, we subject group determine has this times research child subject--green Tang town middle school young teachers of professional development status of survey, aimed at through investigation, inquiry I school young teachers of professional growth status, looking for professional growth path, and through research, excavations some can effective upgrade young teachers professional growth of good measures, and good approach, For my school teachers, especially younger teachers professional development proposals so as to enhance the effectiveness of young teachers ' professional development to guide the work, targeted. Keywords: young teacher professional development survey, introduction in the country carrying out the scientific concept of development under the background of the times, and narrowing the development gap between urban and rural areas, is the proper meaning. Improving rural primary and secondary school level and quality will naturally be to achieve balanced development of urban and rural education must urgently address the reality of the subject. But in today's society attaches great importance to the quality of education, "school choice hot" continues unabated, reflecting the regional imbalance in the allocation of teachers; " School choice hot "is the substance behind the" optional. " In other words, the teacher's specialization levels directly determine the quality of school education level, social 由图7我们可以看到，经历了长达17年的牛市后，日本股市整体上涨了20.23倍，其中涨幅最大的电信板块上涨了64.3倍，涨幅最小的消费品板块也上涨了15.4倍，大多数行业的涨幅在市场平均水平20倍左右。可见，在一轮大牛市中，多数板块都是可以分享到的，而其中跑得最快的行业一定是在此期间增长最 快的行业，尤其是一些新兴行业。详见图7。 3(不同阶段板块涨幅差异明显 尽管从长期的角度来看，各个板块之间的差异并不明显。比如从1973年,1989年期间，涨幅最大的电信板块的涨幅也只有涨幅最小的消费品板块的4.18倍。但在不同阶段，各板块之间的涨幅差距要比这明显得多。其中，在1973,1979年和1980,1984年两个阶段，由于股市上涨主要由企业盈利推动，使板块之间涨幅差异尤为明显，在前一阶段达到20.4倍，在后一阶段达到867倍，即便扣除能源板块在此期间的下跌，这一阶段板块之间的涨幅差距依然达到了19.24倍。而1985,1989年的股价上涨主要由估值提升推动，板块之间的差距反而没那么大，涨幅最大的板块的涨幅只有涨幅最小的板块的3.93倍，市场呈现出 明显的普涨特征，详见表3。 Green Tang town middle school young teachers professional development status survey report Luton report summary based on completely found out I school--green Tang town middle school young teachers professional growth of basic situation, we subject group determine has this times research child subject--green Tang town middle school young teachers of professional development status of survey, aimed at through investigation, inquiry I school young teachers of professional growth status, looking for professional growth path, and through research, excavations some can effective upgrade young teachers professional growth of good measures, and good approach, For my school teachers, especially younger teachers professional development proposals so as to enhance the effectiveness of young teachers ' professional development to guide the work, targeted. Keywords: young teacher professional development survey, introduction in the country carrying out the scientific concept of development under the background of the times, and narrowing the development gap between urban and rural areas, is the proper meaning. Improving rural primary and secondary school level and quality will naturally be to achieve balanced development of urban and rural education must urgently address the reality of the subject. But in today's society attaches great importance to the quality of education, "school choice hot" continues unabated, reflecting the regional imbalance in the allocation of teachers; " School choice hot "is the substance behind the" optional. " In other words, the teacher's specialization levels directly determine the quality of school education level, social 资料来源:民族证券研发中心整理。注?中，867倍为居前板块涨幅/居后板块涨幅，19.24倍为居前板块 涨幅/剔除下跌板块后的居后板块涨幅。 4(不同阶段热点很难延续 除了板块之间的涨幅差异外，我们还注意到，不同阶段的热点板块很少延续，而前期涨幅居后的板块在后一阶段很有可能涨幅居前。比如，在1973,1979年期间领涨的能源板块，在随后的1980,1984年期间成为惟一下跌的板块，而前期居涨幅后位的银行，在第二阶段又涨幅居前;再比如，在第二阶段涨幅居前的电信和科技板块，在第三阶段涨幅垫底，而在前两个阶段表现较差的地产板块却成为第三阶段的领涨板 块，详见表4。 股市巨大的财富效应使得居民个人消费心理膨胀，人们争相购买新车、高尔夫会员证和名牌产品等，民间消费支出连年增长，新建住宅大量增加，整个日本岛都沉浸在富足之中。 当时，日本对外投资也相当火暴，其对外年直接投资额从1986年的220亿美元上升到1989年的680亿美元。从1985年到1990年，日本企业海外并购超过500亿日元以上的并购案就有21起，其中包括索尼从可口可乐公司收购哥伦比亚电影 公司股权、三菱地所收购象征美国财富与权利的洛克菲勒中心等令美国人惊呼的案例。 当时，整个日本岛都沉迷在空前的繁荣和疯狂之中。人们甚至坚信股价只涨不落、地价只升不降的大和神话永不破裂。1990年1月3日，《日本经济新闻》在对20位著名企业家进行股市预测时，大家一致乐观Green Tang town middle school young teachers professional development status survey report Luton report summary based on completely found out I school--green Tang town middle school young teachers professional growth of basic situation, we subject group determine has this times research child subject--green Tang town middle school young teachers of professional development status of survey, aimed at through investigation, inquiry I school young teachers of professional growth status, looking for professional growth path, and through research, excavations some can effective upgrade young teachers professional growth of good measures, and good approach, For my school teachers, especially younger teachers professional development proposals so as to enhance the effectiveness of young teachers ' professional development to guide the work, targeted. Keywords: young teacher professional development survey, introduction in the country carrying out the scientific concept of development under the background of the times, and narrowing the development gap between urban and rural areas, is the proper meaning. Improving rural primary and secondary school level and quality will naturally be to achieve balanced development of urban and rural education must urgently address the reality of the subject. But in today's society attaches great importance to the quality of education, "school choice hot" continues unabated, reflecting the regional imbalance in the allocation of teachers; " School choice hot "is the substance behind the" optional. " In other words, the teacher's specialization levels directly determine the quality of school education level, social 地认为1990年的股价将继续上冲至42000-48000点。 但是事与愿违，1990年4月2日，日经平均指数暴跌至28002.07点，比1989年末的最高值下降了28.05%，1990年10月1日，又降至20221.86点，股市总市值消失了270万亿日元以上。股票的下跌也引起国内债券市场的恐慌，抛售股票、债券的资金迅速流向海外，日本金融市场出现了股票、债券与日元 三重贬值的混乱之中。1990年秋季，房地产开始暴跌。 大牛市的破灭使日本经济增长率从1990年的6.0%降至1992年的1.1%，1992年的股票市场总市值跌至289万亿日元，比1989年下降了52.7%。暴跌的股价和地价使居民持有的金融资产价格严重缩水，个人金融资产的暴跌所产生的逆资产效果导致消费信贷收缩，居民消费锐减。1991年，日本轿车销量增长率也出现了自1981年以来的首次负值，全国公寓销量年比减少41.3%，为14年以来的最低。股市下跌导致了金融体系风雨飘摇，也使日本经济陷入“失去的十年” 萧条时期。尽管近年经济呈现复苏迹象，但不良债权的处理直至2005年才告一段落，股市也雄风不再，2003年4月跌至7607.88点的谷底后，今日也不过在 17000点徘徊，只相当于大牛市最高峰时的43%。 Green Tang town middle school young teachers professional development status survey report Luton report summary based on completely found out I school--green Tang town middle school young teachers professional growth of basic situation, we subject group determine has this times research child subject--green Tang town middle school young teachers of professional development status of survey, aimed at through investigation, inquiry I school young teachers of professional growth status, looking for professional growth path, and through research, excavations some can effective upgrade young teachers professional growth of good measures, and good approach, For my school teachers, especially younger teachers professional development proposals so as to enhance the effectiveness of young teachers ' professional development to guide the work, targeted. Keywords: young teacher professional development survey, introduction in the country carrying out the scientific concept of development under the background of the times, and narrowing the development gap between urban and rural areas, is the proper meaning. Improving rural primary and secondary school level and quality will naturally be to achieve balanced development of urban and rural education must urgently address the reality of the subject. But in today's society attaches great importance to the quality of education, "school choice hot" continues unabated, reflecting the regional imbalance in the allocation of teachers; " School choice hot "is the substance behind the" optional. " In other words, the teacher's specialization levels directly determine the quality of school education level, social