外商直接投资对中国汽车产业生产力产生的影响【外文翻译】

外商直接投资对中国汽车产业生产力产生的影响【外文翻译】 本科毕业外文翻译 外文目: The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Productivity of China?s Automotive Industry 出 处: Management International Review，Volune47，Number5 作 者: Peter J. Buckley/Jeremy Clegg/Ping Zheng/Pamela A. Siler/Gianluigi Giorgioni 原 文: The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Productivity of China?s Automotive Industry Abstract and Key Results ? This study contributes to the existing literature by empirically investigating the effect of FDI inflows on the aggregate labour productivity of China?s automotive industry. ? A production function model is developed using a panel data set at sub-sector level. Two statistical models: pooled ordinary least squares model (POLS) and fixed effects model (FES) were used to estimate the influence of foreign direct investment on aggregate labour productivity in the industry. ? Inward FDI plays a positive role in increasing industrial productivity, implying that the government should continue to encourage inward investment. However the results also suggest that efforts to increase capital intensity and average firm size in the industry will also improve labour productivity. Key Words Foreign Direct Investment, Automotive Industry, China Introduction There is increasing interest in the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on host country productivity. However, contradictory empirical results have been obtained from a number of previous studies. Kokko et al. (1994, 1996), Egger and Pfaffermayr (2001), Blomström and Persson (1983), and Bertschek (1995), for example, found evidence of a significant positive effect of FDI on spillovers. Haddad and Harrison (1993), Girma et al. (2001), Kholdy (1995), Globerman (1979), and Veugelers and Houte (1990), however, found insignificant, or negative impacts in their empirical results. Interestingly, Aitken and Harrison (1999), Zukowska-Gagelmann (2000), and Djankov and Hoekman (2000) obtained a complicated pattern of mixed results in their respective studies. This paper adds to this important field of research by examining the impact of FDI on China?s automotive industrial productivity using a panel data set. The automotive industry is chosen for several reasons. First, the automotive industry is one of the six key industries1 in China. It has expanded rapidly over the reform years and typically accounts for a large and increasing share of industrial production, output, exports, and employment. In 1999, total sales of China?s autoindustry were about US$ 38 billion, accounting for nearly 4 percent of the country?s GDP. In 1998, seven million employees worked in the auto-industry, accounting for 3.3 percent of the total Chinese urban workforce (Harwit 2001). The automotive industry, particularly in industrialised countries, is a focus of attention due to its major contribution to GDP and employment (Irandoust 1999). Historically, in the USA, Japan, and South Korea, automotive exports have been an important element of foreign trade. Further, the development of China?s automotive industry has been driven by both domestic policy and foreign economic participation. Through studying this sector it is possible to investigate issues both of industrialisation in general, and the impact of technology transfer in particular (Harwit 1995). It is also important to note that there has been a significant amount of FDI in the Chinese automotive industry. By the end of 2000, the cumulative “actually used” FDI2 in the automotive industry reached US$ 45.4 billion; accounting for 13 percent of total realised FDI in China. Moreover, China is also one of the largest automobile markets in the world and has become the most important destination for FDI by automobile multinational enterprises (MNEs), especially since China?s entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO). WTO entry, however, has forced China?s automotive industry to face fierce international competition. As Sit and Liu (2000) point out, China?s entry into the WTO has two effects on China?s automotive industry: one is the gradual reduction of tariffs on imported automobiles and components and the other is the further opening of the industry to FDI. With increasing inflows of FDI into the industry, it is essential to improve our understanding of the effects of FDI on the productivity of the industry. The rest of the paper is organised as follows. Section 2 provides a background on FDI in the Chinese automotive industry. Section 3 discusses the theoretical framework and reviews the relevant literature. Section 4 focuses on the empirical analysis, discussing the model, data, and methodology. Section 5 presents the empirical results and the last section summarises the key conclusions and policy implications. FDI in China’s Automotive Industry According to the Chinese Automotive Industry Yearbook (1999), the development of China?s automotive industry after 1949, when the People?s Republic of China was established, can be split into three different phases. The period 1949-65 can be termed the early „starting stage?. The „growing up stage? can be thought of as the time period 1966-80. From 1981 onwards China?s automotive industry has been in a „rapidly developing stage?. Since the 1950s, the Chinese government has made several attempts to introduce Soviet-style structures and methods in order to achieve the goal of industrialisation. China?s automotive industry originated with the founding of the First Automotive Works (FAW) in Changchun, Jilin province, which is now the largest state-owned auto-maker in China. In July 1953, China and the Soviet Union reached an agreement to introduce Soviet automotive technology and assembly lines to produce medium trucks with a projected capacity of 30,000 units. China?s first truck was produced by FAW in 1956, marking the birth of China?s automotive industry. The Nanjing Automotive Works were set up in March 1958, Beijing Automotive Works in June of the same year, Jinan Automotive Works in April 1960, and Shanghai Automotive works in October 1960. The Chinese automotive industry then had five production bases and 104 plants, including one vehicle assembler, one motor engine maker, sixteen repair plants, and eighteen motor and motorcycle parts producers. In 1965, 40,542 units of automotive vehicles were produced, of which only 133 were cars (see Table 1), accounting for 0.3 percent of total output. China?s automotive industry advanced in the second „growing up? stage. In March 1966, Sichuan Automotive Works was set up in Chongqing, Sichuan province. In April 1967, Second Automotive Works (SAW) was set up in Shiyan, Hubei province, which was later renamed Dongfeng Automotive Corporation in 1992. In March 1978, Shannxi Automotive Works was set up in Xi?an. Moreover, three new firms emerged as important automotive vehicle production sites in Tianjin, Shenyang, and Wuhan. During this period, most of the provinces and autonomous regions, and even the cities of China set up local automotive production. By 1980, the number of automotive consisting of 56 vehicle manufacturers, 129 repair enterprises had risen to 2,379 – plants, 24 motorcycle makers, 33 motor engine makers and 2,076 parts producers. In 1980, 222,288 units of automotive vehicles were produced, of which 135,500 were trucks and 5,418 were cars (see Table 1), accounting for 61 percent and 2.4 percent of the total output respectively. However, owing to the absence of competition, all production units ran at low levels of productivity and efficiency. Central planning also created a further problem of restricted product scope in terms of limited product lines. The result was a fragmented production system with severe overcapacity in auto production nation-wide, characterised by production at levels below minimum efficient scale in each province. The opening up of China?s economy brought unprecedented opportunities and challenges for its automotive industry. Domestic demand for cars (initially dominated by demand from the government sector for official use) rose rapidly in the 1980s. However, China?s vehicle producers were truck makers rather than car makers. The car industry was a minor part of vehicle production during the first three decades of China?s socialist economy and was unable to meet the increasing demand for cars. Since the early 1980s, Chinese car imports have increased dramatically (see Table 1). 译 文: 外商直接投资对中国汽车产业生产力产生的影响 摘要和主要成果 ?本研究的贡献在于通过对现有文献对外国直接投资流入对中国的汽车行业总体劳动生产率的影响进行实证调查。 ?一个生产函数模型，采用小组在分部门级别设置数据。两种统计模型:汇集普通最小二乘模型(油料)和固定效应模型(电刺激)被用来估计总体上外国直接投资在同行业劳动生产率的影响。 ?工业生产力在外来直接投资中起着越来越积极的作用，这意味着，政府应该继续鼓励外来投资。然而调查结果还明，努力提高行业资本密集度和企业平均规模也将提高劳动生产率。 关键词 外商直接投资，汽车产业，中国 简介 有越来越多的外国直接投资对东道国生产率的影响产生兴趣。然而，从以前 的一些研究得到了矛盾的实证结果。等。(年，年)，埃格 Kokko19941996和(年)，和佩尔松(年)和()，Pfaffermayr2001Blomström1983Bertschek1995例如，发现了外国直接投资对溢出效应产生了重大的积极影响的证据。 Haddad和哈里森(年)，吉尔马等。(年)，()，1993 2001Kholdy1995Globerman()，以及和()，然而，实证结果发现，他们的1979VeugelersHoute1990 发现无足轻重，或者在实证结果中是产生了负面影响。有趣的是，艾特肯和 ()，()，和Harrison1999Zukowska - Gagelmann2000DjankovHoekman(年)在他们各自研究的好坏参半结果中获得的复杂模式。本文通过审查2000 的外国直接投资对中国的汽车产业生产力的影响采用面板数据集补充了这一重 要的研究领域。 选择汽车行业有几个原因。首先，汽车业是在中国六个关键产业之一。它具在改革数年间迅速扩大，通常用于说明工业产品、产量、出口和就业中巨大的增加的份额。年，在中国汽车产业的销售总额约为亿美元，接近国内 1999380 生产总值的百分之四。年，七百万名员工在汽车行业工作，占城市劳动力 1998 总数的百分之三点三()。汽车行业，特别是在工业化国家，其国Harwit 2001 内生产总值和就业是一个关注的重点(年)。从历史上看，美国，Irandoust 1999日本，韩国，汽车出口一直是对外贸易的重要组成部分。此外，中国汽车产业的发展是国内政策和国外经济的参与共同推动的。通过研究这个部门能够调查一般产业化的问题，尤其是技术转移的影响(年)。中国汽车行业的外Harwit 1995国直接投资的数额也很重要。到年底，汽车行业累计利用外商直接投资总2000 额已达到亿美元，占对外直接投资在中国的总额的百分之十三。此外，中454 国也是世界上最大的汽车市场之一，已成为跨国汽车企业(跨国公司)对外直接投资最重要目的地，特别是在中国进入加入世界贸易组织(世贸组织)以后。 加入世贸组织，迫使中国汽车行业面临激烈的国际竞争。由薛和刘() 2000指出，中国加入世贸组织对中国汽车行业有两个影响:一方面是逐渐减少对进口汽车和零部件的关税，另一方面该行业的进一步向外国直接投资开放。随着该行业的外国直接投资的流入，有必要提高我们外商直接投资对行业的生产力产生的 影响的认识。 本文的其余部分条理如下。第节提供了外国直接投资在中国汽车行业的背2 景。第节讨论一些理论的框架结构以及有关的文献的回顾。第节侧重于实34证分析，讨论了模型，数据和方法。第节是实证模型的分析结果，最后一节概5 括的结论和政策含义。 中国汽车产业中的外国直接投资 根据中国汽车工业年鉴()，在中国汽车产业在年的发展，当中19991949华人民共和国成立后，可以分成三个不同的阶段。这一时期年至年19491965可称为早期“起步阶段”，年至年期间被认为是“生长阶段”。从19661980 年起，中国汽车行业一直处于“快速发展阶段”。1981 世纪年代以来，中国政府已经多次尝试引进苏联式的结构和方法，以 2050 实现中国汽车产业的工业化。中国汽车行业起源于吉林省长春市的第一汽车制造厂(一汽)，这是目前中国成立的最大的国有汽车制造商。年月，中国19537和苏联达成一项协议，以引进苏联的汽车技术和组装线，生产能力为年产万台3预计中型卡车。中国第一辆卡车是年一汽生产的，标志着中国汽车行业的1956 诞生。南京汽车集团成立于年月，北京汽车制造厂同年六月成立，济南19583 汽车制造厂于年月成立，上海汽车工程厂于年月成立。当时19604196010的中国汽车产业有五个生产基地，车辆组装厂，一个汽车发动机制造商，十104 六个修理厂，十八个汽车、摩托车零部件生产商。年，生产了辆 196540542 汽车，只有辆是轿车(见表)，占总产量的百分之零点三。1331 中国的汽车行业进入了第二个成长阶段。年月，四川汽车制造厂成立'' 19663 于重庆，四川。年月，第二汽车制造厂(锯)成立于湖北省十堰，后来 19674 在年更名为东风汽车公司。年月，陕西汽车制造厂在西安成立。1992 19783 此外，三家新公司在天津，沉阳，武汉等生产基地生产出重要的汽车。在此期间，各省，自治区，甚至是中国大多数城市建立了当地的汽车生产基地。到年，1980汽车企业的数量已上升到，有个汽车制造商，家修理厂，摩托车制237956129 造商个，个汽车发动机制造商，个零部件生产商。年，制造了243320761980 辆的汽车，其中辆卡车和辆轿车(见表)，分别占总222288135,50054181比重的百分之六十一和二点四。 然而，由于缺乏竞争，所有的单位产品的生产水平和效率都较低。中央计划也造成了产品线有限及产品范围受限等进一步问题。其结果是严重的产能过剩与分散生产系统，汽车生产的全国性，各省按生产特点，以低于最低有效规模水平生产。 中国的经济开放为汽车产业带来了前所未有的机遇和挑战。国内汽车需求(从最初由政府使用的政府部门的需求为主)在年代迅速上升。然而，中国80 的汽车生产商是卡车制造商，而不是轿车制造商。在中国的社会主义经济前三十年来轿车业是汽车产量的一小部分，无法满足人们日益增长的对汽车的需求。 世纪年代初以来，中国汽车进口急剧增加(见表)。20801 中方政府开始鼓励外国直接投资进入汽车生产，以及成立合资跨国企业生产汽车。几个主要项目建立于年和年间。首先是与北京汽车制造厂和19842002 美国克莱斯勒的合作(年)。第二次是上海汽车工业总公司和德国大众汽1984 车的合作(年)。第三是与广州汽车公司和法国标致的合作(年)，19851985广州本田是由日本本田与广州汽车公司建立于年。四是一汽大众汽车与奥1998 迪的合作(年)。第五个是北京汽车厂和韩国现代的合作(年)。第19912002 六，是天津汽车工业公司和日本丰田的合作(年)。2002 这些合资企业开始由从外国生产商进口的各组成部分的零部件装配出汽车。进口替代有助于降低进口整车的外汇负担。此外，市场竞争的引入放在增加生产运营和发展的压力上，作为本土中国企业寻求提高自己的技术能力和产业竞争力，在国内第一，然后在国际市场上第一。汽车工业是资本和技术密集，合资企业等成为吸引外国投资和获得现代制造技术和现代管理技术的渠道。跨国公司是一个综合的国际生产体系的一部分，并试图通过外国直接投资在东道国获得更大的市场准入和资源。经济快速增长和人口众多保证了汽车产品在中国市场的畅销。 中外合资经营企业引进使得中国的汽车产业在第三快速发展阶段继续强劲 地发展。在年(见表)，世界十大汽车整车生产商在中国生产万辆19991183汽车根据(中国汽车工业年鉴年)。OICA32000 这个行业现在由外国公司，中央计划国有企业，计划当地国有企业，乡镇和 私营企业组成。到年底，多个外国公司超过个国家已在中国设立200060020 的汽车企业。累计合同利用外资达亿美元，实际利用外商直接投资则达到529 了亿美元(中国汽车工业年鉴年)，这占了中国实际使用外商直接投4542000 资的百分之十三。外商投资的主要来源是美国，德国，日本，法国，意大利，韩国和英国。 尽管有巨大的外国投资和加入世贸组织后的市场纪律，许多业内专家认为，主要结构和技术的弱点继续存在于中国的汽车行业。辛克莱()，例如，2005在双方的汽车制造和零部件的子行业的分散性和小规模以下各地分散的生产经营能力的国家。他还指出，贸易保护主义文化的持续，部分由当地装配公司青睐当地的供应商，尽管他们的产品质量低劣，价格更高。()同 Harwit2001意这一观点，强调各国对国产零部件的使用阻碍了国内汽车生产的质量的提高。他总结有关情况，并指出，虽然中国已经建立了一个巨大的整车生产系统，但''是价格和质量存在的问题仍留在入世后的环境中，产业很容易受到攻击。(Harwit 年，页)2001655