中信证券-宏观专题：去伪存真，辨别真实的地产需求-120306

䈧࣑ᗵ䰵䈫↓᮷ѻਾⲴݽ䍓ᶑⅮ䜘࠶ 2012ᒪ 3ᴾ 6ᰛ ⹊ガᣛ઀gᇅ㿸㔅⎄gщ从ᣛ઀ ৱՠᆎⵕ ĂĂ䗞ࡡⵕᇔⲺ൦ӝ䴶≸� ᣛ઀㾷⛯ ѣؗ䇷࡮⹊ガ䜞 � � ᵜ᮷ᱟаㇷ䪸ሩ䮯ᵏᡯൠӗ䴰≲Ⲵᯩ⌅䇪⹄ウDŽ䲿⵰䲀䍝᭯ㆆ㔤ᤱԕ৺؍䳌 ᡯⲴབྷ㿴⁑ᔪ䇮 ᡯˈቻᵜ䓛Ⲵ䠁㶽ᣅ䍴኎ᙗ൘߿ᕡ ᡯˈቻሶᴤ࣐ケࠪަ㠚տ о⎸䍩኎ᙗDŽᵚᶕൠӗᣅ䍴ሶĀ㔃ᶴᙗā࠶ॆˈ䗘࡛ᣅ䍴о㠚տ䴰≲Ⲵᛵߥ ቡቔѪ䟽㾱DŽⵏᇎ䴰≲ᰪⴋⲴൠ४ˈᡯൠӗᣅ䍴Ჟ≄㜭ཏ㔤ᤱˈ৽ѻਟ㜭䘋 ޕᣅ䍴վ䘧ᵏDŽ � ት≁⭏⍫⭘≤˄⊑≤ᧂ᭮ ໎˅䙏ਟԕ㺑䟿ᡯൠӗⲴⵏᇎ䴰≲DŽѪᴤ߶⺞ൠ䇑 ㇇ᡯൠӗⲴⵏᇎ䴰≲˄ᡆ䇑㇇オ㖞⦷˅ˈ ᡁԜ䘹ᤙ䘉єњᤷḷᶕоᡯቻ䬰୞ ᛵߥ֌Ѫ∄ሩDŽྲ ᷌ᡯቻ䬰୞Ⲵ໎࣐ሩᓄት≁⭘≤Ⲵ໎࣐ ᜿ˈણ⵰ᡯቻⵏᇎ 䴰≲ᆈ൘ˈᒦᵚオ㖞ˈ৽ѻӖ❦DŽн䘹ᤙት≁⭘⭥ᮠᦞⲴ৏ഐᱟˈት≁⭘⭥ ᮠᦞਟ㜭ഐѪᯠ⭥ಘⲴ໎࣐ᡆᴤᯠᦒԓ ⇿ˈᒤ؍ᤱаᇊⲴ໎䮯ᑵᓖ ᇎˈ䱵տ ᡯ䴰≲ᒦᵚ໎࣐DŽ � ᵚᶕൠӗ䴰≲▌࣋ᧂ൘ࡽӄսⲴⴱᐲѪेӜǃк⎧ǃཙ⍕ǃ⾿ᔪ઼⎉⊏DŽ䘉 Ӌ൷Ѫⴤ䗆ᐲ઼ь䜘ਁ䗮ⴱԭ 㺘ˈ᰾෾ᐲॆᨀॷ䗷〻ѝ ˈޜޡᴽ࣑оส⹰䇮 ᯭᶑԦᴤྭⲴൠ४ᴤާ੨ᕅ࣋ˈት≁䘋෾઼⮉傫ⲴⅢᵋᴤᕪ˗ਖаᯩ䶒ˈ䘉 ҏ᜿ણ⵰ 䘉ˈӋൠ४Ⲵᡯൠӗᣅ䍴׍❦ާ༷▌࣋ ⴞˈࡽᐲ൪к䇘䇪ⲴӪਓӾ བྷ෾ᐲ⍱㠣ѝሿ෾ᐲˈӾь䜘ޘ䶒⍱ੁѝ㾯䜘Ⲵ⧠䊑Ჲᵚਁ⭏DŽ⴨∄㘼䀰ˈ ьेⴱԭྲ䗭ᆱǃਹ᷇ḷ߶ॆᤷᮠӵ 0.7 ᐖਣˈ෾ᐲオᗳॆ䰞仈ᐢ㓿䖳Ѫケ ࠪˈ⎧ই⭡ҾՇᡰઘ⸕Ⲵ৏ഐˈオ㖞ॆ䰞仈ᴤѪѕ䟽ˈ䈕ᤷḷӵѪ 0.52 ᐖ ਣDŽ � ѝ㾯䜘ᡯൠӗ䴰≲Ṭተҏ൘࠶ॆDŽ㲭❦䘉Ӌൠ४෾ᐲॆ⦷䘈൘ᨀॷ նˈᡯൠ ӗⵏᇎ䴰≲Ⲵփ⧠ᒦнݵ࠶ ৏ˈᴹት≁བྷཊҏᐢᤕᴹᡆ䍝Ҡտᡯ ഐˈ↔ਟ㜭 ᵚᶕᡯൠӗᣅ䍴▌࣋䖳Ѫᴹ䲀DŽ㘼⊏㾯ǃ䟽ᒶㅹൠ४ˈӗъ䖜઼〫᭯ㆆ⧟ຳ 䖳ྭ ෾ˈᐲॆ⦷Ⲵᨀ儈ሩᓄҶⵏᇎⲴߌ≁ᐕ䘋෾ԕ৺↓ᑨⲴ᭩ழᙗ䴰≲ Ӿˈ ⵏᇎ䴰≲Ⲵ䀂ᓖᶕ㿲⍻ˈ䘉Ӌൠ४ᡯൠӗᣅ䍴׍❦ާ༷▌࣋DŽ � ᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲ᒦн⭡অ㓟෾ᐲॆ⦷ⲴਈࣘߣᇊDŽ䗷৫ࠐᒤ䰤 Āˈᡯൠӗⵏ ᇎ䴰≲āоĀ෾ᐲॆ⦷Ⲵਈࣘāє㘵⴨ޣᙗӵ 0.07ˈ⭊㠣੸⧠䍏⴨ޣޣ㌫ˈ ণᖡ૽ᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲ਈࣘⲴਟ㜭нᱟ෾ᐲॆⲴഐ㍐ ෾ˈᐲॆ⦷ᨀॷ䖳ᘛⲴ ൠ४ˈᡯൠӗ䴰≲ᒦнᗵ❦໎࣐DŽਖаᯩ䶒ˈᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲оት≁Ӫ൷᭦ ޕⲴ⴨ޣᙗ᰾ᱮᨀॷˈ䗮ࡠ 0.6ˈҏቡᱟ䈤ᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲ 60%Ⲵഐ㍐ਟԕ ⭡ት≁᭦ޕᶕ䀓䟺DŽ䘉ᇒ㿲кҏㅖਸĀ傜ᯟ⍋䴰≲ᨀॷāⲴ⨶䇪DŽሩҾ儈᭦ ޕൠ४᭮ᔰᡯൠӗ׋㔉᡽ᱟ䈳᧗Ⲵ䟽⛩˗ሩҾվ᭦ޕൠ४ˈᨀॷ᭦ޕ≤ᒣˈ ᡽ᱟᡯൠӗᐲ൪ڕᓧਁኅⲴޣ䭞DŽ 䈮ᔰ㣩� ⭥䈍˖010-60838756 䛞Ԧ˖zhujf@citics.com ᢗъ䇱Җ㕆ਧ˖S1010510120003 � ᆏどᆎ� ⭥䈍˖010-60838015 䛞Ԧ˖sunwc@citics.com ᢗъ䇱Җ㕆ਧ˖S1010510120052 㪙࡟� ⭥䈍˖010-60838405 䛞Ԧ˖dongli@citics.com ᢗъ䇱Җ㕆ਧ˖S1010511080001 ੪⦿㄁� ⭥䈍˖010-60838230 䛞Ԧ˖wuyl@citics.com ᢗъ䇱Җ㕆ਧ˖S1010511080003 � ࡎ䵌᷍� ⭥䈍˖010-60838023 䛞Ԧ˖liull@citics.com ᢗъ䇱Җ㕆ਧ˖S1010511080002 ⴮ީ⹊ガ�� 1.ljᆿ㿲㓿⍾у仈üվսᔰተNJ ...2012-02 2.lj2012 ᒤѝഭ㓿⍾᭯ㆆኅᵋüケതѻ䚃ˈ ᭯ㆆݸ㹼NJ ................................2012-01 3.lj2011 ᒤഋᆓᓖᆿ㿲㓿⍾എ亮৺ኅᵋü üഎ㩭䎻࣯᭩ਈ൘᱕ᵛNJ ........2012-01 4.lj2012 ᒤѝഭ㓿⍾ኅᵋüᓅ䜘ケത˖䖜 ර؍໎䮯NJ ................................ 2011-12 5.ljᆿ㿲㓿⍾у仈ü⅗٪ডᵪлⲴѝഭ㓿 ⍾NJ............................................ 2011-09 6.lj⅗٪ডᵪ˖਼㡏ޡ⍾䐟╛╛NJ2011-09 7.ljᆿ㿲㓿⍾у仈üޣҾᖃࡽ㓿⍾ᖒ࣯Ⲵࠐ њՠ䇑NJ.................................... 2011-08 ৫՚ᆈⵏü䗘࡛ⵏᇎⲴൠӗ䴰≲ 䈧࣑ᗵ䰵䈫↓᮷ѻਾⲴݽ䍓ᶑⅮ䜘࠶ ⴞ ᖅ ᕅ䀰 .............................................................................................................................................................................. 1 ⸝ᵏ⺜⵰䱶ሶ׳֯ൠӗᣅ䍴㔃ᶴᙗ࠶ॆ .................................................................................................................. 1 ᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲Ⲵ⁑රᶴᔪо࠶᷀ .......................................................................................................................... 2 ᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲Ⲵߣᇊഐ㍐࠶᷀ .............................................................................................................................. 4 䱴ᖅ .............................................................................................................................................................................. 6 ᨂമⴞᖅ മ 1˖1-2 ᴸᡯൠӗᣅ䍴໎䙏ਟ㜭䗮ࡠ䴦ᐖਣ ....................................................................................................... 1 മ 2˖ޘഭት≁⭏⍫⭘≤о⊑≤ᧂ᭮໎䙏 .............................................................................................................. 3 മ 3˖䗷৫ࠐᒤᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲о෾ᐲॆ⦷ਈࣘޣ㌫н᰾ᱮ .............................................................................. 5 മ 4˖ᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲о᭦ޕѻ䰤⴨ޣᙗ᰾ᱮᨀॷ .............................................................................................. 5 㺘Ṭⴞᖅ 㺘 1˖ൠӗᣅ䍴ঐ∄ᛵߥ ......................................................................................................................................... 2 㺘 2˖࠶ⴱᤷᮠ䇑㇇≷ᙫ ........................................................................................................................................... 3 㺘 3˖ት≁⭏⍫⭘≤ᧂ᭮໎䙏.................................................................................................................................... 6 㺘 4˖ት≁⊑≤ᧂ᭮໎䙏 ........................................................................................................................................... 6 㺘 5˖й亩ᤷᮠᧂ਽ᛵߥа㿸.................................................................................................................................... 7 ৫՚ᆈⵏü䗘࡛ⵏᇎⲴൠӗ䴰≲ 䈧࣑ᗵ䰵䈫↓᮷ѻਾⲴݽ䍓ᶑⅮ䜘࠶ 2012 ᒤ 3 ᴸ 6 ᰕ 1 ᕋ䀶 2009 ᒤᢗ㹼㠣ӺⲴĀ䲀䍝Ԕāᇎ䱵кᱟඊߣ䙿ࡦҶᡯൠӗⲴᣅ䍴ᣅᵪᙗ䴰≲ˈӾᴰᯠⲴൠӗ᭯ㆆ╄䘋 ⴻˈᡯൠӗ᭯ㆆ䘈ሶ੸⧠㔃ᶴᙗ⢩ᖱˈণඊߣ䙿ࡦᣅᵪ㹼Ѫˈ਼ᰦᢦᤱት≁Ⲵ㠚տ䴰≲DŽྲօ䗘࡛㠚տ䴰≲ ઼ᣅ䍴ᣅᵪ䴰≲ሩҾ⨶䀓ᵚᶕᡯൠӗᐲ൪Ⲵ䎠࣯ቡቔѪ䟽㾱DŽ४ฏкⴻ ウˈㄏଚӋⴱԭᡯൠӗ㠚տ䴰≲׍❦ ᰪⴋˈᣅ䍴▌࣋׍❦ᆈ൘˛䘉а䰞仈ᐲ൪к勌ᴹ⎹৺ˈᵜ᮷俆⅑Ӿᯩ⌅䇪к֌ࠪ᧒䇘ˈᶴᔪ৽᱐ᡯൠӗⵏᇎ 䴰≲Ⲵᤷḷˈণㅹ਼Ҿ䇑㇇਴ⴱⲴᡯቻオ㖞⦷ˈӾᇎ䱵䴰≲Ⲵ䀂ᓖᶕ࠶᷀਴४ฏᡯൠӗᣅ䍴▌࣋ⲴᛵߥDŽᵜ ᮷Ⲵᤷḷ䘹ਆԕ৺㔃䇪ᯩ䶒ਟ㜭䘈ᴹᖵᆼழ նˈਟԕᦒањ䀂ᓖᯩׯབྷᇦ⹄ࡔ䮯ᵏᡯൠӗᐲ൪Ⲵ䎠࣯ԕ৺㔃 ᶴᙗⲴᣅ䍴ᵪՊDŽ ⸣ᵕ⺢⵶䱼ሼ׹ֵ൦ӝᣋ䍺㔉ᶺᙝ࠼ौ ᴰᐞᮠᦞণሶᶕѤˈ1-2 ᴸൠӗᣅ䍴ਟ㜭䴦໎䮯DŽ൘ѕহⲴᡯൠӗ᭯ㆆⲴ䈳᧗лˈൠӗᣅ䍴㠚৫ᒤഋᆓ ᓖᔰ࿻ቡ੸⧠ᘛ䙏л━Ⲵᘱ࣯ 2ˈ011 ᒤ 12 ᴸঅᴸᡯൠӗᣅ䍴໎䙏ᐢ㓿എ㩭㠣 12.3%ˈ䖳 11 ᴸབྷᑵഎ㩭 8 њ Ⲯ࠶⛩DŽ൘䬰୞઼ᣅ䍴䍴䠁ᶕⓀᵚࠪ⧠᰾ᱮ᭩ழⲴᛵߥлˈൠӗᣅ䍴㔗㔝л━Ⲵᘱ࣯亴䇑䘈ሶ㔤ᤱDŽ㓥ੁ∄ 䖳ˈ䗷৫ 7 ᒤ䰤ˈ⭡Ҿᆓ㢲ഐ㍐Ⲵᖡ૽ 1-2 ᴸൠӗᣅ䍴⧟∄໎䙏൘-50%㠣-24%ѻ䰤DŽণׯᱟٿҀ㿲ՠ䇑ˈٷ 䇮⧟∄໎䙏൘-30%ᐖਣ˄2009 ᒤ਼ᵏ䍏໎䮯 40%˅ˈ 亴䇑 1-2 ᴸൠӗᣅ䍴໎䙏ҏ൘䴦䱴䘁ˈ໎䙏ሶ䗮ࡠশਢ վսDŽ ഴ 1φ1-2ᴾᡵ൦ӝᣋ䍺໔䙕ਥ㜳䗴ࡦ䴬ᐜ਩ δ%ε ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ��� ��� ��� � �� �� �� ������ ������ ������ ������ ������ ������ ������ ������ ���ᴸ⧟∄ অᴸᡯൠӗᣅ䍴໎䙏 䍴ᯉᶕⓀ˖CEICˈѝؑ䇱ࡨ⹄ウ䜘亴⍻ 㡩བྷ䳮ᦹཤˈൠӗᣅ䍴⌒ࣘሩ㓿⍾Ⲵᖡ૽нᇩᘭ㿶DŽ䗷৫ 5 ᒤᱟᡯൠӗ㹼ъᘛ䙏ਁኅⲴ 5 ᒤˈᡯൠӗᔰ ਁᣅ䍴ঐᮤњപᇊ䍴ӗᣅ䍴Ⲵ∄䟽аⴤ؍ᤱ൘ 20%ᐖਣˈঐ GDP ∄䟽ҏ൘䙀ᒤᨀॷˈӾ 2009 ᒤⲴ 9%ᨀॷ 㠣 2011 ᒤⲴ 13.1%DŽо↔ሩᓄⲴˈᡯൠӗᣅ䍴ሩ㓿⍾໎䮯Ⲵ䍑⥞нᯝᨀॷ 2ˈ011 ᒤᡯൠӗᔰਁᣅ䍴䎵䗷 6.1 зӯˈࢄ䲔㓖 2.8 зӯⲴ൏ൠࠪ䇙䠁ˈᡯൠӗⵏᇎᔪ䇮ᔰਁᣅ䍴䗮ࡠ 3.3 зӯDŽྲ᷌㘳㲁ᡯൠӗሩкл⑨㹼 ъⲴ᣹ࣘ˄ᡯൠӗᣅ䍴҈ᮠ㓖Ѫ 2.11˅ˈ 3.3 зӯᡯൠӗᣅ䍴ਟ᣹ࣘ㓿⍾໎࣐٬䎵䗷 7 зӯˈ⴨∄ 2010 ᒤ໎ ࣐Ҷ 3.4 зӯDŽ㘳㲁ࡠ 2011 ᒤ GDP Ⲵ໎䟿ӵ 7 зӯˈҏቡᱟ䈤ˈ2011 ᒤᡯൠӗ᣹ࣘⲴ໎࣐٬བྷփ⴨ᖃҾ GDP໎䟿Ⲵ 40%DŽ֌Ѫ᭟ḡӗъⲴᡯൠӗ㹼ъˈަᣅ䍴Ⲵབྷᑵ⌒࣯ࣘᗵሩ㓿⍾ӗ⭏䖳བྷᖡ૽DŽ ৫՚ᆈⵏü䗘࡛ⵏᇎⲴൠӗ䴰≲ 䈧࣑ᗵ䰵䈫↓᮷ѻਾⲴݽ䍓ᶑⅮ䜘࠶ 2012 ᒤ 3 ᴸ 6 ᰕ 2 㺞 1φ൦ӝᣋ䍺খ∊᛻߫ δ%ε ᒪԳ ൦ӝᣋ䍺খരᇐ䍺ӝᣋ䍺∊䠃 ൦ӝᣋ䍺খ GDP∊䠃 2011 20.7 13.1 2010 20.0 12.0 2009 18.7 10.6 2008 21.0 9.9 2007 21.5 9.5 2006 20.8 9.0 䍴ᯉᶕⓀ˖CEICˈѝؑ䇱ࡨ⹄ウ䜘 ൠӗᣅ䍴ሶĀ㔃ᶴᙗā࠶ॆDŽশਢкⴻˈਇ䠁㶽ডᵪⲴᖡ૽ 2ˈ009 ᒤ 1-2 ᴸᡯൠӗᣅ䍴໎䙏ҏᴮ㓿䏼㠣 1%Ⲵվսˈն⭡Ҿഋзӯᣅ䍴ԕ৺⍱ࣘᙗⲴབྷ㿴⁑᭮ᶮˈ䬰୞઼ᣅ䍴䲿ণᘛ䙏৽ᕩˈഐ↔ᖃᰦᡯൠӗᣅ䍴 վս䘀㹼Ⲵᰦ䰤⴨ᖃᴹ䲀ˈሩ㓿⍾Ⲵߢࠫҏн᰾ᱮDŽ⸝ᵏᶕⴻˈᡯൠӗ᭯ㆆਟ㜭Պ䘲ᓖ䈳ᮤˈྲ䙊䗷Ոᜐ࡙ ⦷ǃ߿ݽཱྀ〾啃࣡俆྇ᡯⲴ䍝Ҡㅹ նˈ᭯ㆆ㔍нՊۿ 2008~2009 ᒤ䛓ṧࠪ⧠ 180 ᓖⲴ䖜ਈDŽഐ↔ѝ䮯ᵏᶕⴻˈ ᡯൠӗᣅ䍴ⲴṬተਟ㜭ᐢ㓿ਁ⭏ҶਈॆDŽᡁԜ䇔Ѫˈ䲿⵰䲀䍝᭯ㆆ㔤ᤱԕ৺؍䳌ᡯⲴབྷ㿴⁑ᔪ䇮ˈᡯቻᵜ䓛 Ⲵ䠁㶽ᣅ䍴኎ᙗ൘߿ᕡˈᡯቻሶᴤ࣐ケࠪަ㠚տо⎸䍩኎ᙗDŽഐ↔ˈᡯൠӗᣅ䍴ሶࠪ⧠४ฏᙗ࠶ॆˈሩҾᡯ ቻ׋㔉н䗷࢙ǃⵏᇎ䴰≲׍❦ᰪⴋⲴൠ४ˈ൘᭯ㆆᒣっਾˈᡯൠӗᣅ䍴׍❦㜭㔤ᤱ䖳ᘛ໎䮯˗㘼৽ѻᵚᶕࠐ ᒤሶਟ㜭䘋ޕᣅ䍴վ䘧ᵏDŽ สҾԕкⲴ࠶᷀ˈᵜ᮷ሶ࡙⭘࠶ⴱⲴᮠᦞˈӾĀ䴰≲āቲ䶒࠶᷀ⴞࡽᡯൠӗᣅ䍴ٿ⿫൷㺑Ⲵ〻ᓖˈ⭡↔ ᢮ࠪᡯൠӗᣅ䍴ѝᵏᴤާ໎䮯▌࣋ⲴⴱԭDŽӾᯩ⌅䇪Ⲵ䀂ᓖˈާփ࠶Ѫᤷḷ䘹ਆǃᤷḷḷ߶ॆ༴⨶઼⁑ර㔃 䇪࠶᷀й↕䘋㹼DŽ ᡵ൦ӝⵕᇔ䴶≸Ⲻ⁗ශᶺᔰф࠼᷆ ᤷḷ䘹ਆ ׍ᦞ࠶ⴱᮠᦞᶕⓀⲴਟᗇᙗ ᡁˈԜ䘹ᤙᒤᓖⲴት≁⭏⍫⭘≤໎䙏ǃትት≁⭏⍫⊑≤ᧂ᭮໎䙏ᶕ㺑䟿ᡯൠӗ Ⲵⵏᇎ䴰≲DŽ↓ྲѻࡽⲴ࠶᷀ˈᵚᶕᡯቻ䴰≲ਟ㜭䖜ੁԕ㠚ѫᙗ䴰≲Ѫѫˈ⨶䇪кᴰྭⲴ㺑䟿ᤷḷᱟĀオ㖞 ⦷āˈ ն⭡Ҿ㔏䇑ተ㕪ѿޣҾ䈕ᤷḷⲴ㌫㔏㔏䇑ˈഐ㘼ᡁԜ䘰㘼䘹ᤙ㜭ཏᓖ䟿㠚տᛵߥⲴት≁⭏⍫⭘≤˄⊑ ≤ᧂ᭮˅ᮠᦞDŽ䘹ᤙ䘉аᤷḷⲴࡽᨀٷ䇮ᱟঅսᇦᓝⲴት≁⭘≤˄⊑≤ᧂ᭮˅ᒦнՊࠪ⧠ᖸབྷ⌒ࣘDŽ䘉ҏᱟ ᡁԜн䘹ᤙት≁⭘⭥ᮠᦞⲴањ৏ഐˈት≁⭘⭥ᮠᦞਟ㜭ഐѪᯠ⭥ಘⲴ໎࣐ᡆᴤᯠᦒԓˈ⇿ᒤ؍ᤱаᇊⲴ໎ 䮯ᑵᓖˈ㘼ᇎ䱵տᡯ䴰≲ᒦᵚ໎࣐DŽ 2010 ᒤˈޘഭት≁⭏⍫⭘≤ᙫ䟿 238.7 ӯ੘ˈ䖳 2009 ᒤ໎䮯 2.29%ˈ㘼⊑≤ᧂ᭮ᙫ䟿 379.8 ӯ੘ˈ໎䙏 㓖Ѫ 7.07%DŽᮤփкⴻˈ2007 ᒤ㠣Ӻˈޘഭት≁⭘≤໎䙏สᵜ؍ᤱっᇊˈն४ฏ࠶ᐳᐞᔲ∄䖳བྷˈԕ 2010 ᒤት≁⭏⍫⭘≤໎䙏Ѫֻˈ໎䙏ᴰᘛⲴᆱ༿઼Ӂই໎䙏൷൘ 15%ԕкˈ䟽ᒶ઼⊏㣿ҏ൘ 10%ᐖਣˈ㘼ኡ㾯ǃ 䍥ᐎǃ⎉⊏൷੸⧠䍏໎䮯⣦ᘱDŽ ৫՚ᆈⵏü䗘࡛ⵏᇎⲴൠӗ䴰≲ 䈧࣑ᗵ䰵䈫↓᮷ѻਾⲴݽ䍓ᶑⅮ䜘࠶ 2012 ᒤ 3 ᴸ 6 ᰕ 3 ഴ 2φޞളቻ≇⭕⍱⭞≪ф⊗≪ᧈ᭴໔䙕 δ%ε � � � � � �� ����ᒤ����ᒤ����ᒤ����ᒤ����ᒤ����ᒤ����ᒤ ��� �� � � �� ⊑≤ᧂ᭮໎䙏 ⭏⍫⭘≤໎䙏˄ਣ䖤˅ 䍴ᯉᶕⓀ˖CEICˈѝؑ䇱ࡨ⹄ウ䜘 ᤷḷḷ߶ॆ ѪҶ߶⺞㺑䟿ᡯቻ䬰୞ٿ⿫ⵏᇎ䴰≲Ⲵ⣦ߥˈ䘉䟼䘹ᤙ਴ⴱⲴᡯൠӗ䬰୞䶒〟໎䙏֌Ѫส߶ᤷḷ 1 ഐ↔ˈྲ᷌AijབྷҾ 1ˈণ⭏⍫⭘≤Ⲵ໎䙏ᘛҾᡯൠӗ䬰୞Ⲵ໎䙏ˈ㺘⽪Ӿޘഭ㤳തᶕⴻˈᡯቻⲴ䬰୞઼ ᣅ䍴Ⲵ໎࣐ᴹⵏᇎ䴰≲Ⲵ᭟ᤱˈ৽ѻࡉਟ㜭ᴤཊփ⧠Ѫᣅ䍴ǃᣅᵪᙗ䴰≲ˈሩᓄҾᡯቻⲴབྷ䟿オ㖞 DŽྲ ᷌ᡯቻሩᓄⲴ䜭ᱟⵏᇎⲴ㠚տ䴰≲ˈ䛓Ѹ䘉єњᮠᦞ⨶䇪кᓄ䈕؍ᤱ਼↕໎䮯Ⲵᘱ࣯DŽᶴᔪⲴᤷᮠѪ˖ Aij= (Rij/Sij)/ (Ri0/Si0) ަѝ Rij 㺘⽪ㅜ i ᒤ j ⴱት≁⭏⍫⭘≤˄⊑≤ᧂ᭮˅Ⲵ໎䙏ˈSij 㺘⽪ㅜ i ᒤ j ⴱᡯൠӗ䬰୞䶒〟Ⲵ໎䙏˗ Ri0 ઼ Si0 ࠶࡛㺘⽪єњᤷḷㅜ i ᒤⲴޘഭᒣ൷≤ᒣDŽ 2 㺞 2φ࠼ⴷ᤽ᮦ䇗㇍≽ᙱ DŽ㘳㲁 ࡠ 1 ᒤⲴᮠᦞ⌒ࣘ䖳བྷˈᡁԜ䟷⭘ 3 ᒤⲴᮠᦞᒣ൷ॆ༴⨶ˈਟԕࢄ䲔⸝ᵏᮠᦞⲴᢠࣘഐ㍐ˈ㔃᷌ྲл˖ ൦॰ ⊗≪ᧈ᭴᤽ᮦ ⭕⍱⭞≪᤽ᮦ 㔲ਾ᤽ᮦ ेӜᐲ 2.19 2.20 2.19 к⎧ᐲ 1.68 1.62 1.65 ཙ⍕ᐲ 1.47 1.43 1.45 ⾿ᔪⴱ 1.26 1.26 1.26 ⎉⊏ⴱ 1.22 1.21 1.22 ᒯьⴱ 1.14 1.16 1.15 ⊏㾯ⴱ 1.12 1.16 1.14 ⭈㚳ⴱ 1.03 1.10 1.07 㾯㯿㠚⋫४ 1.05 1.05 1.05 ഋᐍⴱ 1.02 1.06 1.04 䟽ᒶᐲ 1.01 1.05 1.03 Ӂইⴱ 1.04 1.00 1.02 ⊏㣿ⴱ 0.97 1.06 1.02 ޘഭ 1.00 1.00 1.00 1 н䘹ᤙ䬰୞䠁仍Ⲵ৏ഐᱟˈ䬰୞䠁仍䘈䳀ਜ਼ҶԧṬ⌒ࣘⲴഐ㍐ˈഐ↔䟷⭘ᰐ䟿㓢Ⲵ䬰୞䶒〟໎䙏㺑䟿ⵏᇎ䴰≲ᴤѪ߶⺞DŽ 2 ԕ 1 Ѫส߶ᇎ䱵кᱟٷ䇮ޘഭ㤳തᶕⴻ ᡯˈቻ䬰୞઼ⵏᇎ䴰≲ᱟᒣ㺑Ⲵˈྲ ᷌ᵜ䓛ޘഭᒣ൷≤ᒣቡᱟᆈ൘བྷ䟿ᣅ䍴ᣅᵪᙗ䴰≲ ҏˈਟԕԕ 1.1ǃ 1.2 Ѫส߶ˈ䘉䟼н޽䎈䘠DŽ ৫՚ᆈⵏü䗘࡛ⵏᇎⲴൠӗ䴰≲ 䈧࣑ᗵ䰵䈫↓᮷ѻਾⲴݽ䍓ᶑⅮ䜘࠶ 2012 ᒤ 3 ᴸ 6 ᰕ 4 ൦॰ ⊗≪ᧈ᭴᤽ᮦ ⭕⍱⭞≪᤽ᮦ 㔲ਾ᤽ᮦ ᯠ⮶㔤੮ቄ㠚⋫४ 0.95 1.03 0.99 ⒆ेⴱ 1.01 0.96 0.98 ኡ㾯ⴱ 0.92 1.03 0.97 ᒯ㾯༞᯿㠚⋫४ 0.89 1.04 0.97 唁嗉⊏ⴱ 0.88 0.91 0.90 䲅㾯ⴱ 0.88 0.91 0.89 ᆱ༿എ᯿㠚⋫४ 0.83 0.93 0.88 ⋣ইⴱ 0.91 0.84 0.88 ᆹᗭⴱ 0.84 0.88 0.86 ኡьⴱ 0.89 0.78 0.83 ⒆ইⴱ 0.81 0.84 0.83 ޵㫉ਔ㠚⋫४ 0.90 0.72 0.81 ⋣ेⴱ 0.88 0.74 0.81 䍥ᐎⴱ 0.81 0.79 0.80 䶂⎧ⴱ 0.77 0.84 0.80 䗭ᆱⴱ 0.77 0.74 0.76 ਹ᷇ⴱ 0.75 0.71 0.73 ⎧ইⴱ 0.52 0.63 0.58 䍴ᯉᶕⓀ˖ѝؑ䇱ࡨ⹄ウ䜘 Ӿ㔃᷌кⴻ єˈ྇ᤷḷ৽᱐Ⲵ䎻࣯สᵜᱟа㠤Ⲵ 䘋ˈа↕傼䇱Ҷ䈕ᤷḷ֌Ѫ㺑䟿ት≁㠚տᛵߥⲴਸ⨶ᙗDŽ ᡁԜᴰ㓸䘹⭘Ⲵ࠶᷀ᤷᮠѪ䘉є྇ᤷḷⲴᒣ൷٬DŽԕ䈕㔬ਸᤷᮠᶕ㺑䟿ˈⵏᇎտᡯ䴰≲ᧂ൘ࡽӄսⲴⴱᐲѪ ेӜǃк⎧ǃཙ⍕ǃ⾿ᔪ઼⎉⊏ˈ൷Ѫⴤ䗆ᐲ઼ь䜘ਁ䗮ⴱԭˈ㺘᰾෾ᐲॆᨀॷ䗷〻ѝˈޜޡᴽ࣑оส⹰䇮 ᯭᶑԦᴤྭⲴൠ४ᴤާ੨ᕅ࣋ˈት≁䘋෾઼⮉傫ⲴⅢᵋᴤᕪ˗ਖаᯩ䶒ˈ䘉ҏ᜿ણ⵰ˈ䘉Ӌൠ४Ⲵᡯൠӗᣅ 䍴׍❦ާ༷▌࣋ˈⴞࡽᐲ൪к䇘䇪ⲴӪਓӾབྷ෾ᐲ⍱㠣ѝሿ෾ᐲˈӾь䜘ޘ䶒⍱ੁѝ㾯䜘Ⲵ⧠䊑Ჲᵚਁ⭏DŽ ⴨∄㘼䀰ˈьेⴱԭྲ䗭ᆱǃਹ᷇㔬ਸॆᤷᮠӵ 0.7 ᐖਣˈ෾ᐲオᗳॆ䰞仈ᐢ㓿䖳Ѫケࠪˈ⎧ই⭡ҾՇᡰઘ ⸕Ⲵ৏ഐˈオ㖞ॆ䰞仈ᴤѪѕ䟽ˈ䈕ᤷḷӵѪ 0.58 ᐖਣDŽ Ӿ䈕ᤷḷкⴻˈѝ㾯䜘ᡯൠӗ䴰≲ҏ൘࠶ॆDŽ⒆ইǃᆹᗭǃ⋣ইㅹൠ४Ⲵᤷḷ൷൘ 0.9 ԕлˈ㲭❦䘉Ӌ ൠ४෾ᐲॆ⦷䘈൘ᨀॷˈնᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲Ⲵփ⧠ᒦнݵ࠶ˈ৏ᴹት≁བྷཊҏᐢᤕᴹᡆ䍝Ҡտᡯˈഐ↔ਟ㜭 ᵚᶕᡯൠӗᣅ䍴▌࣋䖳Ѫᴹ䲀DŽ㘼⊏㾯ǃ䟽ᒶㅹൠ४ˈӗъ䖜઼〫᭯ㆆ⧟ຳ䖳ྭˈ෾ᐲॆ⦷Ⲵᨀ儈ሩᓄҶⵏ ᇎⲴߌ≁ᐕ䘋෾ԕ৺↓ᑨⲴ᭩ழᙗ䴰≲ˈӾⵏᇎ䴰≲Ⲵ䀂ᓖᶕ㿲⍻ˈ䘉Ӌൠ४ᡯൠӗᣅ䍴׍❦ާ༷▌࣋DŽ ᡵ൦ӝⵕᇔ䴶≸Ⲻߩᇐഖ㍖࠼᷆ ↓ྲࡽ䶒Ⲵ࠶᷀ˈӾᧂ਽кⴻˈेӜǃк⎧ǃཙ⍕ㅹൠ४ൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲ᧂ਽ትࡽˈ䛓Ѹᖡ૽䘉Ӌ෾ᐲᡯ ൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲Ⲵ৏ഐᱟӰѸ˛෾ᐲॆⲴᘛធᱟ੖аᇊሬ㠤ᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲ⲴਈॆDŽ䘉䟼ᡁԜ࠶࡛ሶ෾ᐲॆ⦷ Ⲵਈ઼ࣘት≁᭦ޕⲴ儈վ䘋㹼ᤷḷॆ༴⨶ᒦᧂ਽DŽާփᧂ਽ᛵߥ㿱䱴㺘DŽ 1. ሶ 2008~2010 ᒤⲴᒣ൷෾ᐲॆ⦷઼ 2005~2008 ᒤⲴᒣ൷෾ᐲॆ⦷⴨߿ˈ㘳ሏ਴ⴱᐲ෾ᐲॆ⦷ᨀ ॷⲴᛵߥDŽ∄䖳㘼䀰ˈ6 ᒤ䰤ˈ⒆ই෾ᐲॆ⦷ᨀॷᴰᘛˈᒣ൷ᨀॷҶ 5.3 њⲮ࠶⛩DŽ 2. 䘹ਆ㔏䇑ተޜᐳⲴ 2010 ᒤӪ൷᭦ޕ֌Ѫᧂ਽ᤷḷDŽӪ൷᭦ޕᴰ儈Ⲵᱟк⎧ ᒣˈ൷䗮ࡠ 3.57 зݳDŽ 䙊䗷∄ሩ਴ⴱᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲Ⲵᧂ਽оє亩ᤷᮠⲴ⴨ޣᙗˈ㔃᷌㺘᰾˖䗷䗷৫ࠐᒤ䰤 Āˈᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲ā оĀ෾ᐲॆ⦷Ⲵਈࣘāє㘵⴨ޣᙗӵ 0.07ˈ⭊㠣੸⧠䍏⴨ޣޣ㌫ˈণᖡ૽ᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲ਈࣘⲴਟ㜭нᱟ෾ ᐲॆⲴഐ㍐ ෾ˈᐲॆ⦷ᨀॷ䖳ᘛⲴൠ४ ᡯˈൠӗ䴰≲ᒦнᗵ❦໎࣐ 䘉ˈоᐲ൪ѫ⍱㿲⛩ᒦна㠤DŽਖаᯩ䶒ˈ ᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲оት≁Ӫ൷᭦ޕⲴ⴨ޣᙗ᰾ᱮᨀॷˈ䗮ࡠ 0.6ˈҏቡᱟ䈤ᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲ 60%Ⲵഐ㍐ਟԕ⭡ ት≁᭦ޕᶕ䀓䟺DŽ儈᭦ޕൠ४Ⲵ䍝ᡯ䴰≲㠚❦䖳儈ˈ䘉ᇒ㿲кҏㅖਸĀ傜ᯟ⍋䴰≲ᨀॷāⲴ⨶䇪DŽ ৫՚ᆈⵏü䗘࡛ⵏᇎⲴൠӗ䴰≲ 䈧࣑ᗵ䰵䈫↓᮷ѻਾⲴݽ䍓ᶑⅮ䜘࠶ 2012 ᒤ 3 ᴸ 6 ᰕ 5 ᙫ㔃㘼䀰ˈӾᮠᦞкⴻˈᡯൠӗⵏᇎ䴰≲Ⲵᨀॷ䘈ᱟᗇ׍䶐ት≁᭦ޕⲴ໎䮯ˈঅ㓟׍䶐෾ᐲॆ˄ᡆᡧ㉽ ࡦᓖ᭩䶙˅䇙ߌ≁ᐕ䘋෾ˈަҠᡯ㜭࣋ᒦнՊᴹᵜ䍘кⲴᨀॷˈⵏ↓Ⲵ䍝ᡯ᜿ᝯҏнᕪDŽഐ↔ˈᴰ⨶ᜣⲴᡯ ൠӗ᭯ㆆˈ䘈ᱟᓄᖃሩн਼ൠ४䘋㹼ᐞ࡛ॆ༴⨶DŽሩҾ儈᭦ޕൠ४ˈⵏᇎ䴰≲׍❦ᆈ൘ˈ᭮ᔰᡯൠӗ׋㔉᡽ ᱟ䈳᧗Ⲵ䟽⛩˗ሩҾվ᭦ޕൠ४ˈᨀॷ᭦ޕ≤ᒣǃ࣐བྷ؍䳌ᡯⲴ׋ᓄ᡽ᱟᡯൠӗᐲ൪ڕᓧਁኅⲴޣ䭞DŽ ഴ 3φ䗽ৱࠖᒪᡵ൦ӝⵕᇔ䴶≸фคᐸौ⦽਎ࣞީ㌱у᱄ᱴ δ⁠䖪Ѱ൦ӝ䴶≸᤽ᮦθ㓫䖪Ѱคᐸौ⦽਎ࣞε 䟽ᒶᐲ ⎉⊏ⴱ Ӂইⴱ ᯠ⮶㔤੮ቄ㠚⋫४ 㾯㯿㠚⋫४ ཙ⍕ᐲ ഋᐍⴱ к⎧ᐲ 䲅㾯ⴱ ኡ㾯ⴱ ኡьⴱ 䶂⎧ⴱ ᆱ༿എ᯿㠚⋫४ ޵㫉ਔ㠚⋫४ 䗭ᆱⴱ ⊏㾯ⴱ ⊏㣿ⴱ ਹ᷇ⴱ ⒆ইⴱ ⒆ेⴱ 唁嗉⊏ⴱ ⋣ইⴱ ⋣ेⴱ ⎧ইⴱ 䍥ᐎⴱ ᒯ㾯༞᯿㠚⋫४ ᒯьⴱ ⭈㚳ⴱ ⾿ᔪⴱ ेӜᐲ ᆹᗭⴱ \� �������[�������� 5ϡ� ������ ������ ������ ������ ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� 䍴ᯉᶕⓀ˖ॾ䙊Ӫˈѝؑ䇱ࡨ⹄ウ䜘 ഴ 4φᡵ൦ӝⵕᇔ䴶≸ф᭬ޛҁ䰪⴮ީᙝ᱄ᱴᨆॽδ⁠䖪Ѱ൦ӝ䴶≸᤽ᮦθ㓫䖪Ѱᒩൽ᭬ޛε 䟽ᒶᐲ ⎉⊏ⴱ Ӂইⴱ ᯠ⮶㔤੮ቄ㠚⋫४㾯㯿㠚⋫४ ཙ⍕ᐲ ഋᐍⴱ к⎧ᐲ 䲅㾯ⴱኡ㾯ⴱ ኡьⴱ 䶂⎧ⴱ ᆱ༿എ᯿㠚⋫४ ޵㫉ਔ㠚⋫४䗭ᆱⴱ ⊏㾯ⴱ ⊏㣿ⴱ ਹ᷇ⴱ⒆ইⴱ ⒆ेⴱ 唁嗉⊏ⴱ ⋣ইⴱ⋣ेⴱ⎧ইⴱ 䍥ᐎⴱ ᒯ㾯༞᯿㠚⋫४ ᒯьⴱ ⭈㚳ⴱ ⾿ᔪⴱ ेӜᐲ ᆹᗭⴱ \� ������[��������� 5�� ������ � ���� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ����� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� ���� 䍴ᯉᶕⓀ˖ॾ䙊Ӫˈѝؑ䇱ࡨ⹄ウ䜘 ৫՚ᆈⵏü䗘࡛ⵏᇎⲴൠӗ䴰≲ 䈧࣑ᗵ䰵䈫↓᮷ѻਾⲴݽ䍓ᶑⅮ䜘࠶ 2012 ᒤ 3 ᴸ 6 ᰕ 6 䱺ᖋ 㺞 3φቻ≇⭕⍱⭞≪ᧈ᭴໔䙕 δ%ε ൦॰ 2010ᒪ 2009ᒪ 2008ᒪ 2007ᒪ 2006ᒪ 2005ᒪ 2004ᒪ ޘഭ 2.29 2.28 0.81 1.95 -8.91 4.39 3.92 ेӜᐲ 2.87 6.41 1.87 3.99 0.43 -6.00 12.73 ཙ⍕ᐲ 0.68 -1.99 3.44 7.38 -6.23 0.35 -3.36 ⋣ेⴱ -1.01 3.11 0.75 3.88 -7.73 2.04 -2.14 ኡ㾯ⴱ -10.32 4.36 -2.50 6.10 5.60 11.21 -5.03 ޵㫉ਔ㠚⋫४ 8.68 11.17 -12.05 2.28 -14.12 9.44 3.56 䗭ᆱⴱ -1.73 0.76 0.22 -1.71 -10.03 1.77 8.06 ਹ᷇ⴱ 3.93 -0.73 7.05 -4.49 -12.06 -0.87 3.14 唁嗉⊏ⴱ -2.34 -5.29 -1.01 6.86 -10.93 -6.33 -0.45 к⎧ᐲ 1.24 4.24 -4.59 3.33 -16.99 -0.06 5.71 ⊏㣿ⴱ 9.47 5.96 4.06 1.64 -11.30 3.80 4.25 ⎉⊏ⴱ -5.10 4.10 3.33 2.30 -1.84 8.91 -1.17 ᆹᗭⴱ 4.00 -3.16 0.72 0.87 -6.03 -0.82 1.80 ⾿ᔪⴱ 2.58 -6.78 2.31 0.00 12.16 7.49 -0.69 ⊏㾯ⴱ 0.19 0.94 4.92 -4.69 -7.47 1.95 -4.56 ኡьⴱ 2.23 2.53 -4.00 0.24 -5.42 5.32 7.58 ⋣ইⴱ 2.39 4.44 1.69 -3.01 -8.18 2.71 -4.33 ⒆ेⴱ 2.25 -3.88 -1.18 4.95 -20.15 2.34 2.60 ⒆ইⴱ 0.00 2.39 0.22 0.00 -4.47 -2.23 -0.71 ᒯьⴱ 0.87 3.41 -0.47 6.11 -14.46 17.59 11.76 ᒯ㾯༞᯿㠚⋫४ 3.98 3.38 1.34 7.02 -3.24 0.31 -3.87 ⎧ইⴱ 7.07 5.14 1.74 4.88 -5.20 6.13 10.14 䟽ᒶᐲ 11.19 3.95 7.50 -7.41 8.00 8.99 3.67 ഋᐍⴱ 7.05 3.54 1.97 0.66 -17.92 5.14 2.44 䍥ᐎⴱ -7.25 2.34 -5.54 -9.67 7.14 -7.28 17.05 Ӂইⴱ 17.45 2.56 6.46 -20.11 3.95 31.60 -3.24 㾯㯿㠚⋫४ 6.06 -10.81 27.59 -40.82 -5.77 33.33 0.00 䲅㾯ⴱ 3.49 3.62 5.74 23.30 -12.85 -1.02 -7.53 ⭈㚳ⴱ 1.44 4.53 5.58 -7.38 7.11 -4.17 22.22 䶂⎧ⴱ 8.33 2.86 7.69 -1.52 -23.26 3.61 9.21 ᆱ༿എ᯿㠚⋫४ 22.22 7.34 3.81 7.14 -2.97 4.12 10.23 ᯠ⮶㔤੮ቄ㠚⋫४ 3.93 -2.65 8.63 2.29 0.66 -18.06 8.16 䍴ᯉᶕⓀ˖ॾ䙊Ӫˈѝؑ䇱ࡨ⹄ウ䜘 㺞 4φቻ≇⊗≪ᧈ᭴໔䙕 %ε ൦॰ 2010ᒪ 2009ᒪ 2008ᒪ 2007ᒪ 2006ᒪ 2005ᒪ 2004ᒪ ޘഭ 7.07 7.48 6.39 4.57 5.41 7.70 5.78 ेӜᐲ -2.94 25.94 6.29 4.07 7.52 3.22 5.95 ཙ⍕ᐲ 20.67 -1.45 14.97 -1.18 18.59 16.27 5.33 ⋣ेⴱ 9.92 18.86 14.24 8.11 9.44 5.85 8.84 ኡ㾯ⴱ 3.42 0.60 3.64 7.98 -6.72 1.05 1.25 ޵㫉ਔ㠚⋫४ 19.03 7.96 16.59 5.04 7.71 5.23 9.21 䗭ᆱⴱ 3.29 10.12 2.50 6.40 4.04 9.85 0.77 ਹ᷇ⴱ 5.02 3.92 19.31 0.60 1.81 6.49 4.36 唁嗉⊏ⴱ 4.37 5.87 2.13 -0.38 2.87 -0.39 1.01 к⎧ᐲ 11.74 4.09 1.58 2.07 18.04 8.50 5.45 ⊏㣿ⴱ 9.61 6.59 5.43 3.71 2.36 10.14 17.40 ⎉⊏ⴱ 9.80 7.80 9.50 4.42 8.55 4.07 13.58 ᆹᗭⴱ 7.03 4.52 -0.11 5.62 3.49 10.49 8.40 ⾿ᔪⴱ 10.72 7.26 6.27 2.43 8.58 4.78 17.37 ⊏㾯ⴱ 10.32 13.76 0.53 -0.83 1.58 6.46 5.37 ৫՚ᆈⵏü䗘࡛ⵏᇎⲴൠӗ䴰≲ 䈧࣑ᗵ䰵䈫↓᮷ѻਾⲴݽ䍓ᶑⅮ䜘࠶ 2012 ᒤ 3 ᴸ 6 ᰕ 7 ൦॰ 2010ᒪ 2009ᒪ 2008ᒪ 2007ᒪ 2006ᒪ 2005ᒪ 2004ᒪ ኡьⴱ 11.79 12.16 8.50 5.94 12.01 4.43 4.20 ⋣ইⴱ 7.55 10.00 8.59 9.64 6.31 4.32 6.20 ⒆ेⴱ 0.99 5.60 6.17 4.75 2.48 7.22 0.82 ⒆ইⴱ 5.26 3.73 3.97 5.45 8.19 4.98 13.65 ᒯьⴱ 7.49 7.44 4.38 5.92 3.16 7.92 -5.18 ᒯ㾯༞᯿㠚⋫४ 2.44 3.08 2.78 3.85 4.42 30.41 0.55 ⎧ইⴱ 1.38 0.96 3.42 4.26 0.57 6.44 38.64 䟽ᒶᐲ 1.90 4.22 19.69 1.75 6.27 14.95 0.96 ഋᐍⴱ 3.73 2.05 11.11 0.91 -1.46 13.52 13.16 䍥ᐎⴱ 2.21 3.42 2.70 3.76 1.56 3.16 2.17 Ӂইⴱ 10.60 8.54 5.09 4.79 9.27 5.95 19.02 㾯㯿㠚⋫४ 22.89 0.71 0.68 0.69 -30.92 1.60 651.18 䲅㾯ⴱ 13.05 10.06 10.98 10.28 13.66 4.03 4.67 ⭈㚳ⴱ 9.06 5.93 9.08 -2.31 8.25 0.19 -0.43 䶂⎧ⴱ -1.37 6.73 2.13 3.20 4.24 9.29 36.73 ᆱ༿എ᯿㠚⋫४ -5.65 13.11 8.53 21.27 -7.71 1.00 11.45 ᯠ⮶㔤੮ቄ㠚⋫४ 9.99 2.23 8.74 6.18 3.50 2.36 7.30 䍴ᯉᶕⓀ˖ॾ䙊Ӫˈѝؑ䇱ࡨ⹄ウ䜘 㺞 5φп亯᤽ᮦᧈ੃᛻߫ж㿾 คᐸौ⦽਎ࣞᧈ੃ ൦ӝ᤽ᮦᧈ੃ ᭬ޛᧈ੃ ⎧ইⴱ 23 31 22 ਹ᷇ⴱ 29 30 24 䗭ᆱⴱ 26 29 9 䶂⎧ⴱ 18 28 27 䍥ᐎⴱ 13 27 29 ⋣ेⴱ 12 26 18 ᒯ㾯༞᯿㠚⋫४ 11 26 12 ޵㫉ਔ㠚⋫४ 4 25 10 ⒆ইⴱ 1 24 13 ኡьⴱ 20 23 8 ᆹᗭⴱ 5 22 14 ⋣ইⴱ 3 21 19 ᆱ༿എ᯿㠚⋫४ 16 20 16 䲅㾯ⴱ 8 19 21 唁嗉⊏ⴱ 25 18 30 ኡ㾯ⴱ 15 16 23 ⒆ेⴱ 17 15 15 ᯠ⮶㔤੮ቄ㠚⋫४ 27 14 28 ⊏㣿ⴱ 2 13 6 Ӂইⴱ 14 12 17 䟽ᒶᐲ 7 11 11 ഋᐍⴱ 9 10 20 㾯㯿㠚⋫४ 31 9 26 ⭈㚳ⴱ 19 8 31 ⊏㾯ⴱ 10 7 25 ᒯьⴱ 24 6 5 ⎉⊏ⴱ 22 5 3 ⾿ᔪⴱ 6 4 7 ཙ⍕ᐲ 21 3 4 к⎧ᐲ 30 2 1 ेӜᐲ 28 1 2 䍴ᯉᶕⓀ˖ॾ䙊Ӫˈѝؑ䇱ࡨ⹄ウ䜘 ࠼᷆ᐾ༦᱄ Analyst Certification ѫ㾱䍏䍓᫠߉ᵜ⹄ウᣕ੺ޘ䜘ᡆ䜘࠶޵ᇩⲴ⹄ウ࠶᷀ᐸ൘↔༠᰾˖˄ i˅ᵜ⹄ウᣕ੺ᡰ㺘䘠Ⲵԫօ㿲⛩൷㋮߶ൠ৽᱐Ҷк䘠⇿ս࠶᷀ ᐸњӪሩḷⲴ䇱ࡨ઼ਁ㹼ӪⲴⴻ⌅˗˄ ii˅䈕࠶᷀ᐸᡰᗇᣕ䞜Ⲵԫօ㓴ᡀ䜘࠶ᰐ䇪ᱟ൘䗷৫ǃ⧠൘৺ሶᶕ൷нՊⴤ᧕ᡆ䰤᧕ൠо⹄ウᣕ੺ ᡰ㺘䘠Ⲵާփᔪ䇞ᡆ㿲⛩⴨㚄㌫DŽThe analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of all or part of the research report contained herein hereby certify that: (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subject securities and issuers; and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. ж㡢ᙝ༦᱄ ↔ᣕ੺ᒦ䶎䪸ሩᡆ᜿മ䘱ਁ㔉ᡆѪԫօቡ䘱ਁǃਁ ᐳǃਟᗇࡠᡆ֯⭘↔ᣕ੺㘼֯ѝؑ䇱ࡨ㛑ԭᴹ䲀ޜਨ৺ަ䱴኎ᵪᶴ˄ ԕл㔏〠Āѝ ؑ䇱ࡨā˅ 䘍৽ᖃൠⲴ⌅ᖻᡆ⌅㿴ᡆਟ㠤֯ѝؑ䇱ࡨਇࡦҾ⴨ޣ⌅ᖻᡆ⌅㿴Ⲵԫօൠ४ǃഭᇦᡆަᆳ㇑䗆४ฏⲴޜ≁ᡆት≁DŽ䲔䶎ਖᴹ 㿴ᇊˈᵜᣕ੺ѝⲴᡰᴹᶀᯉ⡸ᵳ൷኎ѝؑ䇱ࡨDŽᵚ㓿ѝؑ䇱ࡨһݸҖ䶒ᦸᵳˈнᗇԕԫօᯩᔿ؞᭩ǃਁ䘱ᡆ㘵༽ࡦᵜᣕ੺৺ަᡰवਜ਼Ⲵ ᶀᯉǃ޵ᇩDŽᡰᴹҾ↔ᣕ੺ѝ֯⭘Ⲵ୶ḷǃᴽ࣑ḷ䇶৺ḷ䇠൷Ѫѝؑ䇱ࡨⲴ୶ḷǃᴽ࣑ḷ䇶৺ḷ䇠DŽ ᵜᣕ੺ᱟᵪᇶⲴˈਚᴹ᭦ԦӪ᡽㜭֯⭘DŽᵜᣕ੺ᡰ䖭Ⲵؑ᚟ǃᶀᯉᡆ࠶᷀ᐕާਚᨀ׋㔉䰱л֌৲㘳ѻ⭘ˈнᱟᡆнᓄ㻛㿶Ѫࠪ୞ǃ 䍝Ҡᡆ䇔䍝䇱ࡨᡆަᆳ䠁㶽ᐕާⲴ㾱㓖ᡆ㾱㓖䚰䈧DŽѝؑ䇱ࡨҏнഐ᭦ԦӪ᭦ࡠᵜᣕ੺㘼㿶ަѪѝؑ䇱ࡨⲴᇒᡧDŽ ᵜᣕ੺ᡰ䖭䍴ᯉⲴᶕⓀ৺㿲⛩Ⲵࠪ༴Ⲷ㻛ѝؑ䇱ࡨ䇔Ѫਟ䶐ˈնѝؑ䇱ࡨн؍䇱ަ߶⺞ᙗᡆᆼᮤᙗDŽ䲔⌅ᖻᡆ㿴ࡉ㿴ᇊᗵ享᢯ᣵⲴ 䍓ԫཆˈѝؑ䇱ࡨнሩഐ֯⭘↔ᣕ੺Ⲵᶀᯉ㘼ᕅ㠤Ⲵᦏཡ䍏ԫօ䍓ԫDŽ᭦ԦӪнᓄঅ㓟׍䶐↔ᣕ੺㘼ਆԓњӪⲴ⤜・ࡔᯝDŽᵜᣕ੺ᡰᤷ Ⲵ䇱ࡨᡆ䠁㶽ᐕާⲴԧṬǃԧ٬৺᭦ޕਟ䏼ਟॷDŽԕᖰⲴ㺘⧠нᓄ֌Ѫᰕਾ㺘⧠Ⲵᱮ⽪৺ᣵ؍DŽᵜᣕ੺ᡰ䖭Ⲵ䍴ᯉǃ᜿㿱৺᧘⍻৽᱐ѝ ؑ䇱ࡨҾᴰࡍਁᐳ↔ᣕ੺ᰕᵏᖃᰕⲴࡔᯝˈਟ൘нਁࠪ䙊⸕Ⲵᛵᖒлڊࠪᴤ᭩ˈӖਟഐ֯⭘н਼ٷ䇮઼ḷ߶ǃ䟷⭘н਼㿲⛩઼࠶᷀ᯩ⌅ 㘼оѝؑ䇱ࡨަᆳъ࣑䜘䰘ᡆঅսᡰ㔉ࠪⲴ᜿㿱н਼ᡆ㘵⴨৽DŽᵜᣕ੺нᶴᡀ⿱Ӫ૘䈒ᔪ䇞ˈҏ⋑ᴹ㘳㲁ࡠњ࡛ᇒᡧ⢩↺Ⲵᣅ䍴ⴞḷǃ 䍒࣑⣦ߥᡆ䴰㾱DŽ᭦ԦӪᓄ㘳㲁ᵜᣕ੺ѝⲴԫօ᜿㿱ᡆᔪ䇞ᱟ੖ㅖਸަ⢩ᇊ⣦ߥDŽ ѝؑ䇱ࡨ࡙⭘ؑ᚟䳄⿫້᧗ࡦ޵䜘ањᡆཊњ亶ฏˈԕ৺䜘䰘䰤ѻؑ᚟⍱ࣘDŽ᫠߉ᵜᣕ੺Ⲵ࠶᷀ᐸⲴ㯚䞜⭡⹄ウ䜘䰘㇑⨶ቲ઼ޜਨ 儈㓗㇑⨶ቲޘᵳߣᇊDŽ࠶᷀ᐸⲴ㯚䞜нᱟสҾѝؑ䇱ࡨᣅ㹼᭦ޕ㘼ᇊˈնᱟˈ࠶᷀ᐸⲴ㯚䞜ਟ㜭оᣅ㹼ᮤփ᭦ޕᴹޣˈަѝवᤜᣅ㹼ǃ 䬰୞оӔ᱃ъ࣑DŽ ൘⌅ᖻ䇨ਟⲴᛵߥл ѝˈؑ䇱ࡨⲴаսᡆཊս㪓һǃ儈㓗㙼ઈ઼/ᡆઈᐕ(वᤜ৲о߶༷ᡆਁ㹼↔ᣕ੺ⲴӪ)ਟ㜭(1)о↔ᣕ੺ᡰᨀࡠⲴ ԫօޜਨᔪ・ᡆ؍ᤱ亮䰞ǃᣅ䍴䬦㹼ᡆ䇱ࡨᴽ࣑ޣ㌫ (ˈ2)ᐢ㓿ੁ↔ᣕ੺ᡰᨀࡠⲴޜਨᨀ׋Ҷབྷ䟿Ⲵᔪ䇞ᡆᣅ䍴ᴽ࣑DŽ൘⌅ᖻ䇨ਟⲴᛵߥ лˈѝؑ䇱ࡨⲴаսᡆཊս㪓һǃ儈㓗㙼ઈ઼/ᡆઈᐕਟ㜭ᣵԫ↔ᣕ੺ᡰᨀࡠⲴޜਨⲴ㪓һDŽ൘⌅ᖻ䇨ਟⲴᛵߥлˈѝؑ䇱ࡨਟ㜭৲о ᡆᣅ䍴↔ᣕ੺ᡰᨀࡠⲴޜਨⲴ䠁㶽Ӕ᱃ˈੁᴹޣޜਨᨀ׋ᡆ㧧ਆᴽ࣑ˈ৺/ᡆᤱᴹަ䇱ࡨᡆᵏᵳᡆ䘋㹼䇱ࡨᡆᵏᵳӔ᱃DŽ 㤕ѝؑ䇱ࡨԕཆⲴ䠁㶽ᵪᶴਁ䘱ᵜᣕ੺ˈࡉ⭡䈕䠁㶽ᵪᶴ⤜㠚Ѫ↔ਁ䘱㹼Ѫ䍏䍓DŽ䈕ᵪᶴᇒᡧᓄ㚄㌫䈕ᵪᶴԕӔ᱃ᵜᣕ੺ѝᨀ৺Ⲵ 䇱ࡨᡆ㾱≲㧧ᚹᴤ䈖㓶ؑ᚟DŽᵜᣕ੺нᶴᡀѝؑ䇱ࡨੁਁ䘱ᵜᣕ੺䠁㶽ᵪᶴѻᇒᡧᨀ׋Ⲵᣅ䍴ᔪ䇞ˈѝؑ䇱ࡨⲴ㪓һǃ儈㓗㙼ઈ઼ઈᐕ ӖнѪࡽ䘠䠁㶽ᵪᶴѻᇒᡧഐ֯⭘ᵜᣕ੺ᡆᣕ੺䖭᰾Ⲵ޵ᇩᕅ䎧Ⲵⴤ᧕ᡆ䘎ᑖᦏཡ᢯ᣵԫօ䍓ԫDŽ ѝؑ䇱ࡨ㛑ԭᴹ䲀ޜਨ৺ަ䱴኎৺㚄㩕ޜਨ 2011 ⡸ᵳᡰᴹDŽ؍⮉а࠷ᵳ࡙DŽ ṩᦞѝഭ䇱ⴁՊṨਁⲴ㓿㩕䇱ࡨъ࣑䇨ਟˈѝؑ䇱ࡨ㛑ԭᴹ䲀ޜਨⲴ㓿㩕㤳തवᤜ䇱ࡨᣅ䍴૘䈒ъ࣑DŽ 䇺㓝䈪᱄ 1. ᣋ䍺ᔰ䇤Ⲻ∊䖹ḽ߼ ᣅ䍴䇴㓗࠶Ѫ㛑⾘䇴㓗઼㹼ъ䇴㓗DŽ ԕᣕ੺ਁᐳਾⲴ 6 њᴸ޵Ⲵᐲ൪㺘⧠Ѫ∄䖳ḷ߶ˈᣕ੺ਁ ᐳᰕਾⲴ 6 њᴸ޵Ⲵޜਨ㛑ԧ˄ᡆ㹼ъᤷᮠ˅Ⲵ⏘䏼ᑵ⴨ ሩ਼ᵏⲴѝؑḷᲞ 300 ᤷᮠⲴ⏘䏼ᑵѪส߶˗ 2. ᣋ䍺ᔰ䇤Ⲻ䇺㓝ḽ߼ ᣕ੺ਁᐳᰕਾⲴ 6 њᴸ޵Ⲵޜਨ㛑ԧ˄ᡆ㹼ъᤷᮠ˅Ⲵ⏘䏼 ᑵ⴨ሩ਼ᵏⲴѝؑḷᲞ 300 ᤷᮠⲴ⏘䏼ᑵ˖ 䇺㓝�� 䈪᱄�� 㛑⾘ᣅ䍴䇴㓗 Ҡޕ ⴨ሩѝḷ 300 ᤷᮠ⏘ᑵ 20%ԕк˗ ໎ᤱ ⴨ሩѝḷ 300 ᤷᮠ⏘ᑵӻҾ 5%̚20%ѻ䰤˗ ᤱᴹ ⴨ሩѝḷ 300 ᤷᮠ⏘ᑵӻҾ-10%̚5%ѻ䰤˗ আࠪ ⴨ሩѝḷ 300 ᤷᮠ䏼ᑵ 10%ԕк˗ 㹼ъᣅ䍴䇴㓗 ᕪҾབྷᐲ ⴨ሩѝḷ 300 ᤷᮠ⏘ᑵ 10%ԕк˗ ѝᙗ ⴨ሩѝḷ 300 ᤷᮠ⏘ᑵӻҾ-10%̚10%ѻ䰤˗ ᕡҾབྷᐲ ⴨ሩѝḷ 300 ᤷᮠ䏼ᑵ 10%ԕк � ््Ӣ�� р⎭�� ␧൩�� ѣؗ䇷࡮ള䱻ᴿ䲆ޢਮ�� ൠ൰˖ ेӜᐲᵍ䱣४Ӟ傜ẕ䐟 48 ਧ ѝؑ䇱ࡨབྷ৖˄100125˅ к⎧⎖ьᯠ४ц㓚བྷ䚃 1568 ਧ ѝᔪབྷ৖ 22 ᾬ˄200122˅ ␡ൣᐲ⾿⭠४ѝᗳй䐟8ਧѝؑ 䇱ࡨབྷ৖˄518048˅ 俉⑟ѝ⧟␫㖾䚃 1 ਧѝؑ བྷ৖ 26 ᾬ Foreign Broker-Dealer Disclosures for Distributing to the U.S. ቧੇ㗄ള൦॰䘷ਇ⹊ガᣛ઀㙂ڐⲺཌള㔅㓠୼-Ӛ᱉୼༦᱄ This report has been produced in its entirety by CITIC Securities Limited Company (“CITIC Securities”, regulated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Securities Business License Number: Z20374000). This report is being distributed in the United States by CITIC Securities pursuant to Rule 15a-6(a) (2) under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 exclusively to “major U.S. institutional investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 and the SEC no-action letters thereunder. ᵜᣕ੺⭡ѝؑ䇱ࡨ㛑ԭᴹ䲀ޜਨ˄ ㆰ〠Āѝؑ䇱ࡨāˈਇѝഭ䇱ⴁՊⴁ㇑ 㓿ˈ㩕䇱ࡨъ࣑䇨ਟ䇱㕆ਧ Z˖20374000˅ ࡦ֌DŽ᤹➗lj1934 ᒤ㖾ഭ䇱ࡨӔ᱃⌅ṸNJлⲴ 15a-6(a) (2)㿴ࡉˈ൘㖾ഭᵜᣕ੺⭡ѝؑ䇱ࡨӵੁ 15a-6 㿴ࡉ৺ަлlj㖾ഭ䇱ࡨӔ᱃ငઈՊᰐᔲ䇞࠭NJᡰᇊ ѹⲴĀѫ㾱㖾ഭᵪᶴᣅ䍴㘵āਁ䘱DŽ