员工宿舍物资配置标准

Global Olefins & Polyolefins LyondellBasell Investor Day December 8, 2010 Bob Patel | www.lyondellbasell.com | 2LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 22LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 Discussion Topics Bob Patel • Introduction to Olefins and Polyolefins • Where are we in the ethylene cycle? • LyondellBasell - global leader in PE & PP – U.S. ethane advantage – U.S. and European feedstock flexibility – Recent portfolio adjustments – Downstream integration into compounding – Technology advantage (Licensing, Catalysts) • Summary • SVP Olefins & Polyolefins Europe, Asia, International as of November 2010. Previously was SVP Olefins & Polyolefins, Americas since April 2010 • General Manager, Olefins and Natural Gas Liquids for ChevronPhillips Chemical Company (CP Chem, 2009-10) • President, Asia Pacific region for CP Chem (2008-09) • Business manager, Olefins for CP Chem (2005-08) • Business manager, Polyethylene for CP Chem (2000 - 05) • Styrenics manufacturing and marketing, Chevron Chemical (1990 – 2000) | www.lyondellbasell.com | 3LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 33LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 Oil and Gas to Polyolefins • Olefins, the basic building blocks, can be produced from either crude oil or natural gas • Cost of feedstocks, scale and vertical integration are the main factors in overall competitiveness Source: LyondellBasell Basic Sources Feedstocks Cracker Next step Derivatives Natural Gas Typical Output ( %) from Liquids Olefins Ethane Naphtha Our Chemicals Ethane PE Polyethylene Propane Ethylene 80 31 PVC PVC Butanes EG Ethylene Glycol Condensates Styrene Light Fractions Propylene 3 16 PP Polypropylene Naphtha PO Propylene Oxide Off-Gases Gas Oil Butadiene 2 5 PB Polybutadiene Butadiene rubbers Basic Petrochemicals Natural Gas Crude Oil Steam Cracking F r a c t i o n a t i o n D i s t i l l a t i o n | www.lyondellbasell.com | 4LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 4 Where are we in the Global Ethylene Cycle? Global Ethylene Operating Rates U.S. Ethylene Cash Profit Margins 4LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 4 Source: CMAI, 2009-2011 Reports -5 5 15 25 35 2004 05 06 07 08 09 10E C a s h M a r g i n ( c / l b ) Naphtha Ethane 75 80 85 90 95 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12E 14E N a m e p l a t e o p e r a t i n g R a t e , % 2009 Fcst. 2010 Fcst. • 1-2 years ahead in recovery vs. prior views • Naphtha price providing an umbrella for strong ethane profits | www.lyondellbasell.com | 5LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 55LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Natural gas (USGC) WTI (Cushing) Crude to Natural Gas Ratio U.S. Ethane Advantage Source: CMAI – September 2010 • U.S. natural gas price continues to stay disconnected from global crude oil price, as U.S. natural gas supply increases with U.S. shale gas production 50 250 450 650 850 1,050 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Cumulative Ethylene Capacity (million tons) $/metric ton Average Feedstock Basis Middle East North America NE Asia SE Asia Western Europe 2009 2004 • North America is the second lowest cost ethylene producing region in the world Source: CMAI 2009 Curve: February 10, 2010 Asia Light Olefins Market Advisory Service (Graphical Analysis) 2004 Curve: 2005 World Light Olefins Analysis Price ($ / million BTU) Ratio $ / Barrel ($ / million BTU) Crude Oil Versus Natural Gas Ethylene Cash Cost Curve | www.lyondellbasell.com | 6LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 6 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 % of Crude, BTU basis Ethane Propane Light Naphtha 6LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 U.S. Feedstock Trends 6 Source: CMAI - November 2010, Propylene Chemical Grade Contract Price ratio to Ethylene Contract Price - Net Transaction PipelineSource: CMAI - September 2010 • Since 2008, the relative price of U.S. ethane (as a percent of crude oil price) has been trending down, due to cheaper U.S. natural gas • Propylene / Ethylene price ratio continues to increase as ethylene production from ethane increases and propylene production from steam naphtha crackers declines Olefins Feedstock vs. Crude Oil Prices U.S. Propylene to Ethylene Ratio | www.lyondellbasell.com | 7LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 77LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 Outlook For U.S. Ethane Supply Appears Positive Source: CMAI - September 2010 • The potential is ~20 ¢/gal ethane price decrease which equals to ~10 ¢/lb of ethylene cost • Ethane spread over its fuel value has improved with the increase in steam cracker feedstock demand displacing propane and heavier feedstocks Source: EnVantage, Jacobs Consultancy - September 2010 1 Additional Anticipated Ethane Supply Capability includes estimates of ethane from unannounced plants (Eagle Ford), LNG, and Marcellus U.S. Ethane Supply / DemandU.S. Ethane Price Over Fuel Value Additional Anticipated Ethane Supply Capability 1 Existing Ethane Supply Capability (including announced fractionation expansions and refinery ethane) • Several expansions in U.S. Gulf Coast ethane fractionation capacity in 2011-12 should increase available supply to U.S. ethylene producers 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 1,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 T h o u s a n d B a r r e l s p e r D a y Avg Sept-2010 YTD Ethane Demand 1% 5% 7% 11% Increase vs. 2009 Cash breakeven for ethane 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 cents / gallon | www.lyondellbasell.com | 8LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 88LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 Shale Gas – The Game Changer? • Horizontal drilling yielding substantial new production of gas from shale • Many shale locations are rich in ethane: Eagle Ford, Bakken, Granite Wash, Marcellus • Estimated U.S. reserves – 245 TCF, Annual U.S. consumption – 23 TCF Æ >10 years of supply identified Source: EnVantage | www.lyondellbasell.com | 9LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 9 LyondellBasell is Well-Positioned in the U.S. Olefins Market • Feedstock flexibility: content of natural gas liquids could vary from 35% to 85% of the total ethylene • Advantaged Midwest ethane crackers • Co-product capabilities – FCCU propylene and splitter – Butadiene recovery – Metathesis unit • Overall, LyondellBasell produced strong results in 2010, due to a combination of company-specific advantages and a favorable U.S. olefins market Average Quarterly EBITDA(R) since Q2’09: ~$525 million 0 200 400 600 800 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 U S D , m i l l i o n s O&P - Europe, Asia, International O&P - Americas 1 – See appendix for reconciliation of EBITDA and EBITDA® to net income. 2 – Excludes $171 million and $5 million LCM inventory valuation adjustments in O&P – Americas and O&P – EAI, respectively. 3 – Excludes $26 million and $5 million LCM inventory valuation adjustments in O&P – Americas and O&P – EAI, respectively. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10E c e n t s / g a l Mont Belvieu to Conway Spread Source: OPIS 1 2 | www.lyondellbasell.com | 10LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 1010LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 PE and PP Industry Chain Margins • With shift of ethylene production to ethane in 2007-10, ethane suppliers' share of chain profits increased • Meanwhile, ethylene and PE profits for U.S. PE producers in 2005-10 remained in a steady range, comparable with the previous 2005 cyclical peak • We expect more upside with global upcycle in 2014-15 • With increased shift to light feedstocks, U.S. crackers are making less propylene • Tighter supply / demand of U.S. propylene has resulted in much higher price volatility • Given our large, flexible position in U.S. propylene, LyondellBasell is in a good position to benefit from propylene tightness -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 cents/lb ethylene Polyethylene Cash Margin Ethylene Margin (from Ethane) Ethane Margin (from Fuel) Source: CMAI 2010 Ethane: GC Natural Gas to Purity Ethane Mont Belvieu Ethylene: GC Ethane Cash Cost to Ethylene Avg Acq Price PE: Margin (pre-tax Contract Sales, HD Blow Molding) -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 cents/lb propylene Polypropylene Cash Margin Polymer Grade Propylene Margin over Refinery Grade Refinery Grade Propylene Spread over Alky Value Source: CMAI Propylene ChainEthylene Chain | www.lyondellbasell.com | 11LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 1111LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 Low U.S. Producer Inventories Lead to Price Volatility U.S. PolyethyleneU.S. Ethylene Million lbs (left axis) Days (right axis) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Est. Billion lbs Source: NPRA, average of quarterly data Combined days of U.S. producer inventory decreased over 45% during the past decade. This has contributed to larger price increases during unplanned outages. Billion lbs (left axis) Days (right axis) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Est. Days Source: ACC, average of monthly data | www.lyondellbasell.com | 12LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 2010 capacity increase can be absorbed over 2011 – 12 1212LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 Global Ethylene Capacity & Demand Changes Source: CMAI 2010 (15) (10) (5) ---- 5 10 15 20 25 30 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10E 11E 12E 13E 14E 2015E 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 North America West Europe Middle East Asia Other Global Demand Global Operating Rate ForecastBillion lbs Operating Rate, % | www.lyondellbasell.com | 13LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 Largest Polyolefin Producers Most of these top 10 producers operate one or more of LyondellBasell licensed processes Capacity Ranking (1) U.S. W. Europe Olefins #2 #7 PE #3 #1 PP #1 #1 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Repsol IPIC Enichem Borealis CP Chem Reliance Formosa TOTAL Ineos CNPC SABIC Dow Exxon Mobil SINOPEC LyondellBasell HDPE LLDPE LDPE PP ExxonMobil KT Source: CMAI 2010, LyondellBasell 1. Capacity ranking includes LyondellBasell wholly owned capacity and 100% of JV capacity as of December 31, 2009. | www.lyondellbasell.com | 14LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 1414LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 Polyethylene Applications Injection Molding 20% Pipe and Extrusion 13% Film & Sheet 26% Other 15% Blow Molding 26% Film & Sheet 67% Extrusion Coating 10% Injection Molding 7% Others 16% HDPE LDPELLDPE Source: CMAI, 2009 Film & Sheet 76%Injection Molding 7% Rotomolding 3% Pipe and Extrusion 2% Other 12% | www.lyondellbasell.com | 15LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 1515LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 Polypropylene and Catalloy Applications Source: LyondellBasell | www.lyondellbasell.com | 16LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 Olefins and Polyolefins Assets – Americas Texas Louisiana Mexico (JV) Illinois Iowa Bayport (Polypropylene) Channelview (Olefins) Chocolate Bayou (Polyethylene) Corpus Christi (Olefins) La Porte (Olefins, Polyethylene) Matagorda (Polyethylene) Mansfield (PCMA*) Victoria (Polyethylene) Morris (Olefins, Polyethylene) Tuscola (Polyethylene)Clinton (Olefins, Polyethylene) Lake Charles (Polypropylene) Ensenada (Polypropylene, PCMA*) Argentina Brazil Tampico (Polypropylene, PCMA*) Pindamonhangaba (PCMA*) Ohio Fairport Harbor (Polyethylene) Tennessee Jackson (PCMA*) * PCMA (compounding) business is incorporated in EAI O&P financials | www.lyondellbasell.com | 17LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 1717LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 United Kingdom • Carrington • Milton Keynes France • Berre / Aubette Spain • Tarragona Germany • Wesseling / Knapsack • Münchsmünster • Bayreuth • Frankfurt Poland • Basell Orlen JV Italy • Ferrara • Brindisi Monomers Polyolefins and/or Compound Netherlands • Moerdijk Olefins and Polyolefins Assets – Europe The nature and location of our European sites reflects a long history of consolidation through the 1990’s and 2000’s. | www.lyondellbasell.com | 18LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 1818LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 Improvements to our European Assets • Step-change in our European Polyolefin Plant Fixed Cost Quartile Positions 2008 vs. 2010 • This self-improvement should help European segment in 2011-12, given expected impact from Middle East new production 2008 2010 PP PE • We have done a significant re-positioning of our European assets in 2008-2010. • More similar steps are expected from other European producers 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 75% First Quartile Second Quartile Third Quartile Fourth Quartile T o t a l V o l u m e , % -1,000 -750 -500 -250 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 Net change Net change European Rationalizations European Capacity Additions Saudi JV Capacity Additions M i l l i o n p o u n d s Note: Saudi JV capacity additions reflect proportional share of added capacity. Proactive rationalizationSelf-help measures paid off | www.lyondellbasell.com | 19LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 1919LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 PP Compounding is a Significant Global Business Region Market Share EU 45% North America 25% South America 45% Asia 10% Engineering plastic replacement • Fuse Boxes ( PBT, PA ) • Front Ends ( PA, LFT-PP ) • Engine covers (PA) • Water tanks (PA) ABS & ABS/PC replacement • Instrument panel carriers • Consoles • Grilles Softell for interiors • Instrument panel parts • Door panels • Interior trims Steel replacement • Hatchbacks • Battery support • Water drainage beams • Pedal supports • Door modules • Fender module • Seat structures Note: Image courtesy of VW. Automotive market forecast refers to IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Production Forecast, June 2010, © Copyright 2010, CSM Worldwide, Inc Significant potential for PP compounds to replace existing materials • Automotive market recovery forecasted at an annual rate of 7.5% from ‘09, up to ~ 90 M vehicles by 2015. • Innovation pipeline increasing PP-based products in a car, replacing other materials (e.g., metal, ETPs). | www.lyondellbasell.com | 20LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 2020LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 Asia Pacific* • HMC (JV) • Suzhou • Guangzhou/Nansha • Poly Pacific (JV) Chemical Monomers Polyolefins and/or Compound International Assets and Joint Ventures Saudi Arabia • SEPC (JV) • SPC (JV) • Al Waha (JV) Japan & South Korea • Poly Mirae (JV) • Sun Allomer (JV) Note: Each circle represents the presence of a Business at a site, irrespective of the number of plants/lines the business has at that site. As of September 30, 2010. Australia • Geelong • Clyde • LyondellBasell is geographically well positioned in Asia, enabling U.S. to supply a fast- growing market • Two JVs in Saudi Arabia started up recently, and should increase dividends | www.lyondellbasell.com | 21LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 2121LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 Technology Business Commercializing Innovation Services • Usually long-term customer partnerships with unique technology solutions, thus stable and predictable financial performance. • Sales volume should continue to increase due to steadily higher global Polyolefins production, licensing share and our product innovation capability Polyolefin Catalysts • Performance driven by industry investment cycle on capacities additions: large opportunities in 2004-09, less in 2010-14 • However, this lull in new construction activity should be helpful to our own PE, PP business in their upcycles Licensing • This is a hi-tech, fully integrated, high-margin and fast growing business (14% CAGR 2002-09). • Integrated start-up and post- startup services to licensees over the lifetime of the project, capitalizing on LyondellBasell in-house technical expertise • Flexible resource management and professional execution processes in place | www.lyondellbasell.com | 22LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 2222LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 Comprehensive Portfolio of Technologies for Licensing | www.lyondellbasell.com | 23LyondellBasell Investor Day 2010 23 • Implemented U.S. restructuring in early 2010, further plans to align other regions • Reliability and safety remain a focus • Structural and sustainable benefits • LyondellBasell still retains feedstock flexibility U.S. Ethane Advantage • Super-specialty business: highly profitable, strong & global technology position • Pace of new capacity additions impacts licensing • Record financial results in 2010, while retaining upside to the global ethylene peak • U.S. market should be tight due to exports U.S. Olefins is set at higher performance • LyondellBasell is a global leader by scale, technology and a cost-curve position • Strong performer in 2010, leverage to upcycle Global Ethylene Cycle • Stronger in 2010 than expected • Remaining new capacity of the last “wave” should be absorbed in 2011-12 Global Polyolefins (PE + PP) Licensing, Catalysts & Services Focus on Restructuring and Reliability Global Olefins & Polyolefins Summary