土木堡之变

土木堡之变 明正十四年，统统统统统1449统统统统统统统统统统统统,秋,英宗朱祁征蒙古瓦剌,在土木堡，今河北来南,突遭瓦剌攻,全的作。统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统 一、背景 　　明朝建立后,元朝残余力退漠北,明太祖朱元璋修城、统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统、置所,有效地巩固了北部防。成祖朱棣称帝后 抑制蒙古事力量的展。永十九年，统统统统统统统统统统统统统统1421,,以天子守国迁都北京,撤统统统统统统统统塞北事重大宁，今内蒙古宁城西,、平，今正旗统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统 北,,使北部防南移数百里。蒙古族乘机展力,分统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统瓦剌、靼、兀良哈三大部,互争雄。正四年,瓦剌部首也先嗣统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统位,用武力迫使部服属。同,面与明朝互通市,求通婚,统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统以保和好,暗中刺探明朝虚,机兵,恢元朝治。明朝北统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统守将察知瓦剌蓄南攻,多次奏疏加统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统戒,以防不虞。而强 太王振操朝中大,竭力粉太平,致使北部统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统况日下、岌岌可危。每 二、火索变变变 明初蒙古瓦剌施统统“统”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统縻之策,在宣化、大同等地放市,互通易。正十四年 (1449)也先派2000人来,称统统统统统3000,以冒粮食,太王振把瓦剌统统统统统统统统统统统统统价格削减,激怒瓦剌,成争的火索。统统统统统统统统 三、程变变 1、征变变 　　正十四年七月,也先以攻明机成熟,以明廷刁其使和统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统毁弃婚由,全力分四路大攻明。命脱脱不花可汗率统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统 统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统路攻,阿剌知院率中路攻宣府，今河北宣化,,另 遣一部西路,攻甘州，今甘掖,,自率精攻大同。统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统 十一日,也先率至猫儿庄，今山西阳高西北,,大同统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统参将吴浩。明廷,命大同督宋瑛、都尉井源、兵朱冕统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统和左参将石亨各兵万人出阳和口，今阳高西北,抵御。王统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统振欲功,竭力恿英宗征,企以吓退瓦剌。卜五统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统 日,英宗拒听兵部尚埜、左侍郎于和吏部尚王统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统直等文武重臣再三统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统阻,下令征,并命其弟郕王朱祁留守京，今北京,。同日,阳和口之,明统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统又,宋瑛、井源、朱冕死 石亨统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统逃大同,塞北城堡接失陷。与此同,阿刺部攻独石，今河北赤城北,,破永宁城，今北京延统统统统统统统统统统统统统北,,逼居庸。脱脱不花部攻统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统静堡，今宁黑山西北,,遭明抗,撤而去。 2、中变 　　十六日,英宗和王振统统统统统统统统促率大号称50万前往大同迎统统统统统统统统统。十九日,在途中,埜等统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统群臣屡回,均遭拒。廿三日,至宣府。廿四日,也先知明统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统主力出征,且行如,首尾,遂佯装畏惧,主统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统北撤,伏塞外,明兵,机待。廿八日,明至阳和，今阳高,,统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统目睹尸横遍野,将士惊恐。八月初一,至大同,王振不瓦剌统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统踪影,急欲北,炫耀兵威。,守大同的太统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统郭敬密王振,瓦剌兵甚,且大同以北各地明统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统惨,若北行,正中其。王振遂定回,命刘安统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统大同兵、郭登参将,守大同,掩主力撤。初三,明统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统始按既定路由蔚州，今河北蔚,紫返京。行40里,王振擅改行统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统路,令全折向宣府,居庸而返。将士宣府、大同,统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统疲渴。也先察知明易道北行,指混乱,断定并非用,立统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统即改伏之策,蒙古兵倏来忽往、灵活机的统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统特点,突入城,跟踪追。十三日,追至宣府西,一明后吴统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统克忠、吴克勤部。明成国公朱勇和永伯薛兵4万来援,又迅速统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统兵,在明援必之地儿，今河北涿鹿西北,伏待机。 3、被俘 　　十四日下午,明统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统主力退至四面山、水源乏的土木堡。此地道路不良,大机统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统困。王振以重未至,下令大扎等候。统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统埜追兵不舍、形危急,多次建大速入来城,均被王振予以拒。埜面英宗,奏统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统疾入来,以保安全。王振怒斥统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统令埜不大黯扎兵事,。当,瓦剌占土木堡西北强、西南要地,控制了堡南的唯一水源,明统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统形成包之。十五日,也先遣使和,统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统熬。行佯退之,渴麻痹明。明断水二日,兵英宗和王振急欲脱统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统困境,遂遣使往瓦剌和。王振下令全移统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统水,人争路,相互践踏,大乱。也先乘机指统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统精从四面入。明惊恐,指失灵,加之配火器,不熟悉性能,未几即统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统全大,死不。英宗被俘,随征将臣、埜等50余人,王振统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统被怒的樊忠以,就是史上著名的土木堡之。 四、变变局 　　此统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统,明大麇集,于宣府、大同,致将士疲,扎统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统于群山之中,不便机,且信和,松懈戒,致大,使明王朝欲。 附:土木堡之的变变变变变变史 　　于土木之中明参人数,统统统统统统统统“统统统统统统统统官私属共最早的于五十余万刘定之《否泰》: 人。”统统统统统统“统统统嘉靖后期以来,几乎所有言及出征人数的明代史家均沿此官私,直至迁犹于属”统统“”“统”“”强甚明,而清人自谷泰私以下均不提属,径作官乃五十万至五十余万, 数字之差,统统统“统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统臣因取目耳意全非。刘定之在《否泰》末道:,参以善、李所述《奉使统统统统统统统”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统》,李《李溥所撰《袁彬》,其繁侍郎使北,著此。》未出征人数, 善《奉使统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统》今不,估亦不及此。溥《袁彬》今亦不,其内容袁彬于塞外侍奉英宗的事迹,也不太可能提到明人数。统统统统“统统”统统统统统目耳刘定之所来自,即明出的确有号称五十万之。统统 　　但《》统统统统统“统统”统统统统统统统统官人等口不提出征人数,死者。数十万沿此例只亡人数者由“统”“”“统统”“统”“”统统士卒数十万到士卒死者数十万。从官到士卒再到士卒死者人等死,衍化程与五十万的遭“”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统遇相似。上引《否泰》作者刘定之是《英宗》副裁,与裁文、彭统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统及副裁吴等于正十四年各任翰林院侍、修撰、修之,所所无太大差。修《》任要统统统“统统统”统统“”,,而又在于副裁官《否泰》早五十万在景泰年已写成,不采其之于,明土木之十余年后,人统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统“统统统统统”统死数十万之已疑当年五十万大的法。但统统统“统统统”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统又不知何据,《否泰》言我死半矣可。能《》作者交代争模,只好以“统”统统“”统死含糊数十万了事。但此一出,不五十万但同不采法的《四夷考》、《名山藏》、《明史》沿用,即相信统“”统统“”五十万之的五十万《国榷》、《明通》等也采用之,以与相呼统“”统统 统统统统统统统统统统统“统数十万。另外一些不采者,如薛、雷礼、徐学聚、谷泰、佐等多以失统”统统统“统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统二十万匹搪塞。此二十万人中来自李所:居半,死者三之一,亦二十余万,衣甲兵器尽胡统”统统统统统统统统“统统统”统统统统李人所得。土木之,耳目者幸逃生,所当凭可在京靠。后人既然摘其,统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统却断章取,而其的人数和亡不予理睬,在以统统统统统统统理解。 　　另外,土木之统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统前夕朱勇率死儿。《》其率四万,《献征》卷五李《成国公朱公勇神道碑》、王世统统统统“统统统统遣朱、徐学聚、叶向高、迁因之。《否泰》:勇等三万。高统统统”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统岱、黄光升、谷泰因之。三万与四万人尚可相相成。不李在《天日统统“”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统率五万兵》中又是迎之。雷礼、从、佐因之。《明史》卷一四五《朱勇》却作所率五万“统”统统“”统“统”,皆没然是取最兵五万五万。，其大数目,又擅改卷三二八《外国统?瓦剌》又作四万人,“”统统统统统统统统统统统统然原稿非出一人之手。, 　　王世统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统土木之于出征、亡人数一并 统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统,却又朱勇数。从在此同事而略数。看来明后期已统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统有人世的明人数和亡数大疑,因而略 统。 　　明出统统统统统统统“统统统统统……京征。命下究竟有多大模呢,《》:逾二日即行,扈从文武吏士皆猝统”“统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统此前就道云。三天,命在京五、神机、三千等在操者人一两,……统统统统统统”统统统统统统统统统统统统兵器共八十余万。又每三人一,重。可明猝出,兵来 自三大以统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统及必的。于三大的兵,明代中后期以来有多统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统法,一般永有三四十万。而土木之前京统统统统模尚无令人信服的法。 　　当统统统统统统统统统统“统统统统统统统统统宣京由德班元年,河南、和在京所操官、幼官、舍人成。于班, 山、大宁都统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统班往来。原春司、中都留守司、直隶淮阳等每及宣府士至京操,令秋两班,官统统……统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统正十四年,一十六万名,令外班官京操者,前班三月,八月到,后班八月,次年三月统统统”统统统统统壮官,皆隶到前,河南、山、北班。可土木之强直隶 当年班班统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统之法未,当在京班有八万人。 　　于京操,统统统统统统“‘统统统统统统统统统统统统成国公《》:朱勇言:宣德五年旧五二万人。后大每步同等御,今五统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统存五万七千余人。而神机比旧亦少,扈从、征不足于用。令行在兵部如旧取统’统统统统统”统“。上命兵部于京士卒正二年,命太保成国通十万隶五。公朱勇统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统。先是,勇奏五官原操遣各御,步并逃亡者共缺二万五千有奇。乞命官于五属统统统统统统统统统”“统统两个及月后,朱分并河南、山、大宁三都司官内。勇等奏:奉命拔三千大、五、统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统神机等精官十五万一千有奇。欲将行在衣等七十官,与之相兼伍统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统。然于内有守陵、守、供役、上直者,乞之。上命守陵、守各存其半,供役、上直旗校隶衣统统统统统”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统听用。十五万中官俱督操,其余必然已本包括京,即统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统指所述四,所增加者,不原以各名目推托操者。但《明史》卷八九《兵志一》解朱勇正二年兵事统统统“统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统令衣等、守:陵卒存其半,其上直旗校隶衣督操,余悉三大统”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统。正京操包括上直一半和五府所属在京所全部。即便按统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统算,京模最大有多少呢, 　　据叶盛《水统统统统“统统统统统统统统统正十四年日》卷二二《府官旗人数》:未多事之先,五都督府统统统统统统统统统统统统统统”统并衣等官旗人等3,258,173名,有统统1,624,509名。其中“统统”衣等三十五294,117名,有统统159,871名。五府“”并所属2,964,056名,有统统1,464,638名。统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统衣三十五与五府所属分列,指二十六与武功中、左、右,永清左、右统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统,彭城,陵,献陵和景陵等役作和陵,五府所属京至万统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统共三十九。无全国,是将三十五分统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统,皆原之半,不妨以此作当各的普遍情况。役作统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统当然不会入三大,所以将二十六与三陵合,占三十五的统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统六分之五,有十四万人左右,取其一半七万人。若按叶盛所,五府属统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统平均六千六每百人,五府属之半 十三万人。但考到外往往统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统有外的千所,而京一般五所,统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统五府属按五千六百人的一半,十一万人。合得每十八万人。若减去朱勇所言征各的京兵与统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统逃亡者,京操数尚不及此。　　土木之后五天,统“统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统令新余丁、官舍并旧操舍人及效者人一两,布二匹,守城匠人、守火统统统统统”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统新夫并皇城四内余外官丁人、布二匹。官舍无疑是匆匆凑集的新兵,而旧操舍人统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统是来自隶属五的幼官舍人,效者来自忠效,匠人、火夫可能来自统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统供匠役的武功,他都属斗力弱者,故得留守。官然指留守的部分上直。土木之后次日统“统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统京戒,羸疲卒不十万。就是指些留守 统统统统统统统统统统统统统。姑且以旧操幼官、舍人占留守兵一半即近五万人,合班、京操与幼官舍人,当统统统统统统统统统统京最多三十万人。 　　英宗征统“统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统命太保成国前一月即六月底,公朱勇京四万五千人。令平伯、都尉井源、都督耿统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统、毛福寿、高礼,太林富率三万往大同,都督王、吴克勤率万五千往宣府,各。可英宗征统统”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统前京兵精已被抽出不少。明从京出,合三大与全部上直统统统统统统统统统统统统统统“统私,即三十万加七万,再减去十万和四万五千,模当在二十三万上下。即使属”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统伍大,明数也就在二十五万左右。 　　明统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统几到达土木堡,人成已有不少化。据《》,六月派到大同、宣府的将中,、井源、王等统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统死于土木堡,吴克勤死于土木之前夕的断后之役,明明离统统统统统统统统统统统统统统“统统统统统大同、宣府,井源六月派来的京兵踵随行回京。《否泰》英宗兵到宣府至,”统统统“统”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统《李侍郎使北平》伯即明到大同后遣出,明此部明已大受失。而明在统统“……统统统统统统统统统统统统统统庚申到达土木堡的前一天更是失惨重:遣恭侯吴克忠后拒,克忠力没。将至,统统统统统统……” 统统统亦陷又遣成国公朱勇,永伯薛官焉。吴四万赴之。克忠作后,其数量统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统当以万。增之后,再算行程中的减,明统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统到达土木堡的模二十万,与李所正相符合,也统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统接明了以上京模的估。 　　明统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统号称五十万,可能只是沿永以五十万大征的法以大造声而已。相比之下《正统统统统“统统”“”统统前戎番》引也先里:皇帝出来大倒比小四十万人。五十万更近事。　　《》统统统统统统统“……统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统庚申土木之将。宣府前的争程:众我后,遂遣 恭侯统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统吴克忠后拒,克忠力没。将至,又遣成国公朱勇,永伯薛官四万赴之勇、至儿,冒而,统统统统统统统……统统……辛酉次土木,其南十五里有河,遇伏,亦陷焉。 已统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统,分所据,道渴自土木水日,人近旁麻峪口入。守口都指郭懋力拒之。 夜,兵统……统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统壬戌益增。,欲启行,以伺,止不行。退,，王,振命统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统抬就水。我,四面冲突而来,我遂大。统统” 　　统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统然,明到达土木堡,堡南河流已瓦剌所踞。儿位于英宗当天所在的雷家站，今新保安,西北四十里。其后郭懋阻瓦剌于麻峪口,地在雷家站偏统统统统统统统统统统统北。瓦剌何以能扼守在统统统“统统统统统统统统统统统统统今日之事,雷家站南的桑干河,土木之后叶盛建言:急。往者独石、不弃,统统”统统“统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统后来于六何以陷土木,:，俊,遇达城,不能效力死守,将独石、统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统,并、粮尽行捐弃在逃,以致士卒散,城池失守,突之路,因而辱国,至今令人痛恨。”统统统统“统统统统统统统统统统统统统统从《土木之殊域周咨》卷十七也:根于此路，指宣府路,即独石、等,,由于统统统统统统”统统统统统统统统统统他都,由俊之失机,故氏有余也。独石，今 河北赤城以北独石口,、，今统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统赤城西北,南下的瓦剌,才是造成明覆的主因。　　土木之统统统统“统统统统统统统统王子前宣府以的况从究竟如何呢,瓦剌首阿剌知院来,也先言: 从西来,我从独石、来。统统统统统”“统”“统”统统统统统统他我了了几哪小几城。个小城呢,《》卷一八零正十四年七月统统“统统‘统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统宣府兵癸巳条:官都督达洪奏:已三日,将河水断,中无水。土木之后十天,’”统“统统统统统‘统统统统统统统督独石等御都督事先有安言:敕命都指玫守独石统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统俊守,夏忠守,署都指宣守千所,臣同少公督。今甚多, 统统统’统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统力甚少,若分守恐王御。令公、安、玫、俊率所官来居庸外扎,京外援。”统统“统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统似乎是明守亨主信撤退。但七天后,劾守赤城堡指、徐福,雕堡指姚宣先于七月内统统统统”统统统统统然入境,弃城挈家奔走,以致来、永宁等,洪亦行仿效。上无非是统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统其子俊南逃找借口,估其兵就在此。俊首先南逃,致使赤城，今赤城城,、统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统雕，今赤城南雕村,、，今赤城西南,、所，今统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统赤城所,、来，今京包路官水统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统底,、永宁，今北京延永宁,失守,宣府以、统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统防御。来位于土木堡以、居庸外已无强清水河 ，今官水统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统,北岸,占据土木堡以南河流的当就是已至来的阿剌知院。明至土木堡,统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统因来已失守,不得已而就地扎统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统。正是由于阿剌知院截断明路,才造成瓦剌主力追及并合统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统独明,石、强故叶盛失守的重后、于才会果。 　　在元代,土木堡是大都西行,北通上都和西抵大同的交通枢统“。至明由今宣府西代,北万全统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统右、膳房堡、野狐,逾塞垣以达和,此永中之西路,甚平坦,亦常由此入寇。今土……统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统幕直北安、雕堡、赤城、云州、独石,逾塞垣以达平,此永中统统”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统胡之路。所西路,即分自去大同的道而由宣府直接出塞之路,后英宗即由此回国。统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统路与元代去上都的路无异,景泰使臣曾走此路。可明代土木堡仍宣府后方内外交通的枢统“统”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统,当之冲。从上述儿和麻峪口的位置以及瓦剌在宣府才明看,瓦剌可能就是兵分两路,沿永中统“统统”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统旧道南的。西路由野狐入境,英宗后知也先,统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统并明后,路因独石以南已无明防守,七月已占统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统来、永宁,扼守要津,以逸待,直至也先率主力赶到。明之所以在土木堡统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统覆,与它的交通枢地位有直接系。 尽管瓦剌统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统趁宣府北明而得南下,但明宣府重兵未统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统,、距离均充裕,何不出瓦剌呢,宣府兵力在明代前期统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统各之冠,据《宣府志》卷二一《兵籍考》可得下表:统代统统士全操数统统统统统统宣府城统统统宣府操洪武126,39556,152 正统90,34655,195 景泰66,97950,759 正德23,27418,930 　　洪武宣府城统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统,若取正年化中强占近一半,正德减至三分之一 段,当统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统宣府当四万左右。而自正、景泰至正德,操几乎未,参考正德比统统统统统“统统统统统统”统城例,正宣府兵至原操有少有三万人。据卷二四《兵考》, 12,864匹,正德统统统有12,387匹。原洪统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统武例,至正德无大化,估统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统正亦此数。又卷二三《兵器考》宣德内府宣府火器,有大将炮14,神统479,神统2161,神统4223等等,数量巨大。可土木之宣府兵至统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统少有三万人,一万余匹,火器充裕,若再集统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统大强城附近和路兵,足以成一支包括兵和火兵的 部。统统统统统统统“统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统惊李《惶天日无措》,不出。,宣府兵官洪若土木之,洪能以后冲 之,必无是统”统统统统统统统。而情恐不止此。 　　《明史》卷一七三《统统统“统统统统统统统统‘统统’统统，,洪》:洪独以王。瓦敢至上将,部亦之,称 剌可汗脱脱不花、太也先统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统皆致于洪,并之。洪于朝,敕令受之而以统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统礼。嗣后数有,帝方依任洪而 统”“统”“”“统”统统统统统统统统统统统统也。既然敕令受之而以,后来礼却又因依任方才不,明此后洪与瓦剌的交往已统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统超出了将的。洪正的功皆兀良哈所建,并未与瓦剌作。宣府与瓦剌一统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统之隔,来往繁,彼此达成互不侵的默契非不可能。后英宗被至大同,侍从袁彬城接洽,“统统统‘统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统入城取李指我。李指:女儿与大同王。如今不与他,我出去,他定了我。大同王’”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统是瓦剌的主要首之一,而明将与之婚且直言不统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统,可将与瓦剌交往之深且多,以求相安无事,亦正后统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统期双方往来繁的气。如此,宣府兵在土木堡形统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统危急保持沉默,乃与瓦剌苟且相安的一做法。 　　明英宗率统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统直至大同,本欲北行出,明英宗以瓦剌主力在大同塞外。其当瓦剌的游牧区域,西达统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统,至阳和,北逾山,南抵城,其部下阿剌知院部更在偏一而夏季也先往往牧于偏统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统一。正十四年夏瓦剌征女真来,所居更偏。土木之前瓦剌从阳和、独石两个方向入侵,就统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统明瓦剌主力已在大同北、宣府西北。《》卷一八一正十四年统“统统统统……统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统。初八月庚戌条:从紫入。王振,蔚州人也,始欲邀幸其第,而统统统统统”统统统统“统统”当又恐中秋,地塞北的其土禾稼,从宣府行。禾蔚州会家有 统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统得疑。紫在大同南,离塞,而沿守御宣府、居庸一统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统薄弱。者所,非瓦剌尾追,而是担心遭到宣府统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统外的,可能意到瓦剌主力已移。出征前英宗接到了阳和的,而统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统独石兵之事被了,所以明才会直统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统大同。退兵意到遭面攻的危,却似乎仍未得到路失守的消息,所以仍原路返回。而瓦剌在大同方向主统统统统统统统统统统撤退,集中于宣府塞外,置统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统洪重兵于不,趁宣府北明防御体系崩之,先据要津以切断明统统统统统统统统统统统统统统水源,再一伏明成功。 　　在后世统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统中,土木之直就是一。所明五十万精一朝尽于瓦剌二万众之手,多被统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统咎于明的孱弱和王振的胡作非。正末明的斗力当然已不如洪武、永,但此统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统距永期二十余年,距宣宗率京征兀良哈更不足二十年,力下降当不致如此之快,土木之中明统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统模并非五十万,而是二十万,或可稍明斗力低下的解。从群臣统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统王振余党始,后人就把英宗被俘咎王振。《明史》卷十二《英宗后》曰:“统统统”统统统统统统统统统统统独以王振擅衅是,遂至乘播迁。有代表性的法。但英宗以永、宣德统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统征楷模,在瓦剌日益侵逼、日急的形下征,也是合理的。统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统史王振在到达土木堡后等重而不入来,又扎统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统地点,以致瓦剌追及。瓦剌已先于明到达土木堡以,明统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统就地乃至无法取水,都是不得已的。明统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统情,无踪,退所乘,才是致的主因。而宣 府北防御统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统崩,瓦剌敞大以伏明,宣府兵在局统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统不予配合,使瓦剌得了意料之外的巨大利。之,土木之的统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统局有相当的偶然性,宦官弄在本次争中并非明统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统失的因素,而明斗力下降是多年坏的统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统果,当并非后世所渲染的那不堪一。 　　由于明代统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统数是当的秘密,来不同代京的模众。明代后期往往有如“统”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统国初京不下七的八十万法,不可靠,却常被代学者引用。其,统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统就某些特定期而言,根据《会典》提供的制度统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统料,《》提供的事与分配情况,以及当方志、笔统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统提供的具体数字,具体探京模并不困。解决一些统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统来有定的争、事制度或有裨益。 　　于明统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统前中期史,同代本已乏。在明人数个上,李有准确的,《》统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统却不加采用。明代中后期史学家撰述,多抄,史往往不加辨析,或照刘定之耳号统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统称之辞,或有疑却不能解惑,致使以,五十万大尽土木堡之遂成定统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统。清初人私修明史,又率抄明人旧,乃至妄省文句,使更深。至修《明史》仍粗统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统与各家之,明可疑的法也没有作出解,甚至取叙述明失情况最重的,不统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统“统清但后人,且免夸大失之。国《史料学概》第五章第三指出:朝治统统统统统统”统统统统所以者言明朝《逐蒙古于漠北的事迹,犹如言明建州女真曾臣服于明朝一。史》统“统统统统统统”统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统于明初的事多不。看来言建州以致言蒙古的向,统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统致了《明史》在明代中期明失随意渲染状。之,于明前中期史统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统,不但明后期史家及清人特是《明史》统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统统以尽,即《》也未可遽信,在当人的文集、笔中反而能找到差近事的。统统统统统