CEO的想法

Inside the Mind of the CEO A Survey of Asian Chief Executives October 1999 A Survey of As ian Chie f Execut ives 1 Foreword In the summer of 1999, for the second consecutive year, PricewaterhouseCoopers surveyed a substantial number of chief executive officers of leading Asian corpora- tions on questions of critical interest. The 334 participating CEOs (an increase from 282 last year) lead companies headquartered in 11 countries, including for the first time Australia. The study was designed and conducted with the full support of the World Economic Forum. In this booklet, we present the findings with our analysis and interpretation. Naturally, we were eager to learn the views of these business leaders on the eco- nomic and financial recovery of the region after the widespread crisis of 1997–98. We also explored in considerable depth their assessment of what promises to be the most far-reaching economic revolution of our time: the network of communication, marketing, production, and distribution mechanisms known by the generic name of E-Business. We find the results useful and instructive, and we trust that you also will find food for thought here. Within the aggregate results, the participation of 95 Japanese CEOs and 65 Australian CEOs looms large. We have included their responses in the general sur- vey report, but we also thought it worthwhile to break out the Japanese and Australian responses in separate “mini-surveys” at the end of this booklet. This document is meant to be the beginning, not the end, of dialogue. We hope it prompts discussion and amplification. You can reach me personally at jjs.ceosurvey@us.pwcglobal.com. James J. Schiro Chief Executive Officer PricewaterhouseCoopers A Survey of As ian Chie f Execut ives 3 Introduction The great Asian economic crisis of 1997–98 turned out not to be, as widely feared at the time, the beginning of the end. There are signs—preliminary but unmistakable—that it may actually have been the end of the beginning. The rapid growth of the Asian Tigers in the late 1980s and early ‘90s paused, took a step back, and it was clear that a number of adjustments were in order: financial, regulatory, and political. Now we will see whether the region will go forward with growth that is more steadily paced. Japan remains pivotal, and the plans for the deregulation and restructuring of the Japanese economy remain to be proven in the contexts of Japanese social and political life and the competitive marketplace. But credit is returning to Asia, along with confi- dence and—with one or two exceptions—political stability. While much of Asia was addressed to the challenge of recovery, the E-Business revolution was accelerating at an astonishing pace in the U.S. and certain parts of Europe. Its status in Asia is, as we shall see, embryonic—although in some places it appears that a sense of urgency among government and corporate leaders will rush it through a rapid gestation. The vital role of E-Business in the economy of tomorrow merits a central place in our survey for CEOs’ views on E-Business today. Highlights • The optimism about continuing economic recovery in Asia persists among CEOs, although it is less enthusiastically shared by the Japanese. • Asian CEOs have few apparent worries about accepting foreign capital; in general, they do not associate it with a loss of independence and indeed see foreign invest- ment as critical to recovery. • Opinion differs on government priorities for facilitating recovery: the Australian CEOs heavily favor tax reform, while elsewhere in Asia banking reform leads the list. • The CEOs agree that electronic business will have a significant impact upon compe- tition in their industries, with bankers most concerned that new competitors will use the Internet to enter their markets and approach their customers. • When discussing E-Business, it is possible that Asian corporate leaders are still thinking in terms of e-commerce—the sale of products and services over the Net— rather than broader applications that ultimately transform a firm’s value proposition. • As they assess the impact of E-Business, the CEOs are less certain than might be expected of its potential in such areas as employee recruitment and cost reduction. • The Internet has not added much to the earnings of Asian corporations in the last year; hopes for robust future growth are strongest in—although not completely con- fined to—Australia. • Respondents divided over the question of government and E-Business: there was no clear consensus on whether the Internet should grow with the assistance of, or free from government stimulation, regulation, and/or taxation. • Actual CEO Internet usage has increased modestly in the last year, although the majority who actually do sign on regularly typically seek news updates—a further reflection of their view of the Net as a communications tool. • There is a fascinating division of opinion on whether the growth of E-Business will serve to further integrate the global economy or widen the gap between richer and poorer nations and regions. independence to foreign investors in the acceptance of for- eign capital. Clearly, they do not equate capital with con- trol—in all likelihood, a conclusion founded in past experi- ence. They display little sense of urgency when it comes to having their respective governments reform the financial regulatory environment; only 16 percent regard it as a top government priority in their country. Our own view at PricewaterhouseCoopers is that the CEOs are probably thinking of foreign capital in the terms it has A Survey of As ian Chie f Execut ives 5 CRISIS AND RECOVERY IN ASIA: FOOD FOR THOUGHT The remarkable economic growth throughout Asia during much of the 1990s was in large measure fuelled by readily available credit. But the same lenders who were quick to fund growth were equally quick to withdraw credit when signs of trouble emerged in 1997. Fortunately, investment professionals believed that in most countries the economic funda- mentals remained sound, and they were quick to return to the Asian markets. Recovery was further assisted by several other measures: • The U.S. acted as “consumer of last resort” for Asian exports and set its monetary policy with an eye to international stability rather than purely domestic conditions. • China avoided devaluation, thus preventing a further round of competitive depreciations. • Asian companies proved flexible enough to take advantage of the opportunities provid- ed by much more competitive currencies. • Asian government responses to the crisis, while varying widely over the region, were generally helpful in restoring confidence. • With the exception of Indonesia, serious political instability has been avoided. Will the recovery prove durable? The signs are promising, but three clouds could darken the Asian economic landscape. A sharp downturn in the U.S. economy could reduce the demand for Asian exports. Any sluggishness or prolonged stall in the Japanese recovery could impose serious complications for Asian recovery in general. Protracted political instability in Indonesia, or elsewhere for that matter, could inhibit the return of foreign capital. THE ASIAN ECONOMY Asian business leaders have not forgotten the summer of 1998, but, as they are the first to know, the climate has by how changed considerably. At that time, the world watched in shock and dread as the economies of Asia reeled under a massive financial crisis. Yet even then, as PricewaterhouseCoopers conducted its first survey of nearly 300 CEOs of large Asian corporations, 71 percent pro- nounced themselves optimistic about expectations for the growth of their companies over the next three years—a remarkable show of confidence under the circumstances. It is a credit to these executives that their view has been justified by events. The region’s extraordinary economic recovery has rein- forced this anticipation of growth. Last year’s optimism is now shared by 85 percent of our 334 respondents, although (like last year) more than a third of Japanese CEOs tend to be “somewhat pessimistic.” Nearly two in three Asian CEOs agree that their country is at the bottom of its economic cycle and will return to the path of growth in the coming year. The recovery has been impressive, but CEOs are no believ- ers in miracles. They are quick to point out the instrumen- tal role of various international organisations, of which the International Monetary Fund was most widely cited as helpful (by 56 percent of the respondents). Four in five CEOs reject the propo- sition that Asia’s economies can recover without foreign capi- tal—an issue with interesting implica- tions. Most CEOs harbour lit- tle concern about strings being attached to foreign investment. Fully 77 percent per- ceive no sacrifice of 4 Ins ide the Mind of the CEO 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Extremely pessimistic Somewhat pessimistic Somewhat optimistic Extremely optimistic Expectations of growth over the next 3 years E-Business and the Internet 1999 Survey 1998 Survey 2%1% 26% 15% 56% 64% 15% 21% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Completely disagree Mostly disagree Mostly agree Completely agree Asian economies can recover without foreign capital Recovery of Asian economy 2% 17% 54% 27% NOTE: In these chart and several others, the following responses are not included: “don’t know” and “no opinion.” To several questions, multiple responses were possible. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Completely disagree Mostly disagree Mostly agree Completely agree When Asian countries accept foreign capital, Asian firms give up independence to foreign investors Accepting foreign capital 1% 22% 58% 19% 6 Ins ide the Mind of the CEO Interestingly, Japanese CEOs are more acutely aware of this impending transformation than either their Asian neigh- bours or the Australians. Nearly as many surveyed CEOs (61 percent) expect E- Business to serve as a channel by which non-traditional competitors will reach their customers. Naturally, percep- tions vary: while 27.5 percent have no doubt that E-Business will “completely reshape” their competitive environments, twice as many regard new and non-traditional competition as “extremely likely.” When these returns are sorted by industry, bankers emerge as the most concerned with com- petitive inroads: 35 of the 40 banking respondents thought it “extremely” or “somewhat” likely that new competitors will attempt to use E-Business to carve into their markets. A Survey of As ian Chie f Execut ives 7 long been extended to them—that is, short-term bank loans. But most financial analysts specialising in Asia anticipate that large corporations there will turn increasingly to the capital markets. When that happens, as we believe it must, senior management will have to confront the growing pres- sure for global standards of financial reporting. This pressure has generated little response thus far in Asia, where local practices often fall somewhat short of the standards of disclo- sure and transparency more common in Europe and North America. If more stringent requirements become more com- mon in Asia—if, in effect, they accompany investments from outside the region—we might question whether the accep- tance of foreign capital would be quite so nonchalant. Asian CEOs are certainly aware that E-Business has entered their world. In measures that have not significantly changed since last year, 67 percent believe that E-Business will have a significant impact on competition in their respective industries. A close examination of CEOs’ view of government priorities reveals some fascinating variations in attitude throughout the Asia Pacific region. Asked to identify the top priority of government in their country for facilitating economic growth, they produced the following aggregate answers: When results are broken out by region, however, we can see the influence of Australia in the results—far outpacing other areas in enthusiasm for tax reform. In fact, if we subtract Australia from the results, banking reform becomes the leading priority by 34 percent of the remaining respondents, followed by 23 percent keen on reforming taxes. Which of the following actions should be the top priority of the government in your country for facilitating economic growth? 45.3% 10.9% 37.9% 32.2% 20.0% 9.5% 18.4% 7.7% 4.2% 24.1% 4.6% 0.0% 67.7% 7% 2.1% 12.1% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Imposing fewer restrictions on foreign investment Improving the financial regulatory environment Improving infrastructure Improving the banking system Reforming taxes Australia Japan Other 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 No impact Moderate impact Significant impact Completely reshape Future impact of E-Business on competition Impact of E-Business 1999 Survey 1998 Survey 2%3% 25% 29% 59% 53% 14%14% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 No impact Moderate impact Significantly impact Completely reshape How will E-Business impact competition in your industry? 9.2% 30.5% 7.5% 52.3% 49.5% 55.7% 18.9% 33.8% 32.8% 4.6% 1.1% 4.0% 0 10 20 30 40 Not at all likely Not very likely Somewhat likely Extremely likely Likelihood of nontraditional competitors entering industry using E-Business E-Business and the Internet: Nontraditional competitors entering the industry 1999 Survey 1998 Survey 28% 23% 33% 36% 30% 33% 10% 6% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 No impactNot very likelySomewhat likelyExtremely likely How likely is it that nontraditional competitors will enter your industry using E-Business as their main channel to customers? 57.5% 33.3% 24.1% 31.0% 30.0% 13.3% 36.4% 10.0% 40.5% 32.7% 37.3% 24.2% 21.4% 30.1% 39.8% 2.5% 6.1% 7.1% 8.4% 14.3% Banking Communications & technologies General services and hospitality Industrial services and development Products Western companies have a lot to learn from the attitudes, practices, and philosophies of leading Asian companies Philospohies of leading Asian companies 1999 Survey 1998 Survey 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Imposing fewer restrictions on foreign investment Improving the financial regulatory environment Improving infrastructure Improving the bank system Reforming taxes 32% 18% 40% 28% 18% 16% 13% 8% 8% 15% In part, this view may arise from a confusion over terminolo- gy. When discussing E-Business, the CEOs may still be think- ing in terms of e-commerce, the selling of products over the Internet, rather than the broader dimensions of the term: • Portfolios of computer-assisted tools and processes that transform the firm’s value proposition by using sophisti- cated data warehousing to do more effective customer targeting; networks to link companies with suppliers, distributors, and other business partners; and flexible organisational infrastructures than can executive rapid, drastic change when necessary • Information-age strategies that treat each company as part of a much larger networked community of providers, each bringing specialised skills and new levels of performance to an electronically mediated marketplace • A management philosophy that can be driven through an entire company, transforming its culture and how it earns revenue and grows market share A Survey of As ian Chie f Execut ives 9 Even in the heavily cash-based economies of Asia, these results are not especially surprising. A computer technician will look at the banking industry and see, above all else, a huge collection of bytes waiting to be transformed. Online banking and bill-paying are growing rapidly in the U.S.; the technology is comparatively simple and will probably be picked up quickly elsewhere. Related financial services— brokerage, mortgage origination, insurance—are flocking to the web. New banking competitors who understand that online customers will judge them on price, choice, service, and the quality of decision-support information provided will begin to gather market share. THE LEVEL OF AWARENESS All the Asian CEOs surveyed agree that financial services will experience the greatest impact from E-Business in the next two years. Consumer goods and (somewhat surpris- ingly) even the communications and entertainment sectors trail behind. The idea that the manufacturing or education and healthcare sectors could be radically transformed seems not to have dawned in Asia. 8 Ins ide the Mind of the CEO E-BUSINESS—NOT TO BE IGNORED Within the last year, the busi- ness potential of the Internet has graduated from fascinat- ing novelty to inescapable business reality. It is estimat- ed that some 200 million people are now online worldwide. Admittedly, 80 million of these are in the United States, but we fully expect the U.S. share of the wired community to shrink year by year, although the absolute numbers will con- tinue to grow. Electronic business is a fasci- nating microcosm of the globalisation process. E- Business is rapidly spread- ing, transforming not only the way companies earn rev- enues but also their structure and vision of themselves. It is integrating the business world, abolishing borders, and subverting regulatory— and cultural—frontiers. Finally, very much like glob- alisation, it is a highly irreg- ular process, ragged and uneven around the globe, maturing rapidly in one sec- tor, scarcely more than embryonic in another. THE WIRING OF ASIA: SAMPLING THE SPECTRUM When we examine the penetration of E-Business in Asia, it’s no surprise that Singapore leads the pack. After all, when we measure all countries worldwide on their information wealth and con- tributions to the global economy, Singapore ranks fourth—after the U.S., Sweden, and Finland. When all countries are ranked by business, education, and home Internet users, Singapore stands first, a position it also holds on personal computer shipments, installa- tions, networks, and the software-to-hardware spending ratio. The Singapore government has also announced a goal of reaching $2.3 billion worth of electronic transactions by 2003, with 50 percent of Singapore’s busi- nesses engaged in some form of E-Business by that time. The government has said that it intends to turn the nation into an e-com- merce hub for East Asia. However, Singapore does have stiff competition from Malaysia, which is aggressively pursuing its Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC) project, which it hopes will become the e-commerce hub for Asia. “ ” To borrow a phrase from economics, we can say that the customer’s efficient frontier is changing in a very positive way. As more consumers go online, the marketplace for electronic commerce overall and electronic financial services in par- ticular will develop proportionately. As this occurs, margins will be driven down and the best-cost providers who clearly add value to their chosen customer segments will dominate. In the meantime, the value received by the customer will go up as he and she receive more choice and faster, personalised service at a lower cost. JAY NORMAN PARTNER, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS Education and healthcare 2% Communications and entertainment 22% Financial services 47% Consumer goods 25% Manufacturing 3% Don't know or refused 1% Sectors E-Business will significantly impact in the next two years E-Business and the Internet: Sectors affected Phillippines $1,138 Malaysia $59 Internet technology spending as a percentage of CGP Internet technology spending per person Internet users as a percentage of population Taiwan $139 Hong Kong $314 Singapore $623 United States $1,297 Singapore starts out ahead of its neighbors in terms of technology use and spending E-Business in Singapore 4.2% 2.2% 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% .6% 23% 17% 11% 5% 3% .4% Even so, most Asian CEOs we surveyed continue to se